AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[prgudula]

Bollinger Bands

AUT.AX has closed below upper band by 4.8%. Bollinger Bands are 106.5% wider than normal. The large width of the bands suggest high volatility as compared to AUT.AX's normal range. The bands have been in this wide range for 5 bars. This is a sign that the current trend might continue.

 

[nioka]

if pain persists please see a different accountant.

different people have different circumstances,.

And there is a difference in the way tax is calculated for traders and for investors. If you make a mistake the pain persists for longer.

 

[nunthewiser]

And there is a difference in the way tax is calculated for traders and for investors. If you make a mistake the pain persists for longer.

bingo.

hence my accountant comments through out these last few pages.

different people, different circumstances, different rulings, different tax structures, different kettles of fish.

 

[condog]

AUT smashing out another new high on the close at 1.385

Whats nice is there are still plenty of gaps on the sell side.

 

[frankblack]

AUT smashing out another new high on the close at 1.385

Whats nice is there are still plenty of gaps on the sell side.

Dude, I love your enthusiasm! I like your combination of dyed in the wool believer, and in depth researcher. Obviously this one has done well for you, and hopefully will continue to do so. I look forward to your continued posting.
Cheers for all the info you have shared so far.

 

[tonudiki]

Condog,
Thank you for your info on the Aussie tax regime for CGT.

I will definitely be taxed under the U.K. rules, but it was interesting for me to do a calculation of what CGT I would be likely to pay in the U.K. compared to Australia.

At my current AUT profits level, I would pay much more CGT in Australia if I hadn't/didn't hold for a year but, after that, under the Aussie rules, I would likely have a lower CGT cost than in the U.K.

As Nun and Nioka have also pointed out though, it very much depends on an individuals circumstances and choices.

p.s. Onwards and upwards for AUT!!

 

[condog]

Dude, I love your enthusiasm! I like your combination of dyed in the wool believer, and in depth researcher. Obviously this one has done well for you, and hopefully will continue to do so. I look forward to your continued posting.
Cheers for all the info you have shared so far.

Yep its been an amazing run and an amazing profit.

Have to say though its not one bit luck, it was due to proper research and taking appropriate risks

On the down side my biggest regret is there is apparently no one selling options to insure profits. Similarly liquidity is insufficient to take a profit.


Tonudiki. Yes our greedy govt sucks wit the best of them. A bunch of fat cats in suits robbing the average joe, while 2/3rds of our population pay no tax. Building 43Billion $ broadbaqnd networks we dont even know if we need or not at a cost of $2000 per man women and child. ie $6000 per houshold, one would think we could get time machines installed in every house for that much. And today we find out the promise she made on the eve of the election is to be breached. What a dog act.ps to all you aussies, i dont care who governs , they are all as bad as each other, we have a great country being wrecked by bad govt at every level. Time for all independents and conscious votes on every issue.:topic Sorry
When will they realise tax minimisation and efficient govt creates wealth.At present its about big govt, bigger consultants and no action. Strangle small business in red tape, make 30% of Aussies pay all the tax and lets see what happens. The beautiful julia has no idea, malcolm would be good, if onluy he shut his mouth. Likewise Joe or Ken 07 if he actually did something. But his plastic elbows and innaction tripped him over.

 

[condog]

Reasons why imo we are seeing AUt perform so strongly
1. A double dip was priced in to the market and to stocks and now it appears we are not having one
2. Oil sentiment and oil stock sentiment revolves around China and India growing demand and US demand, which the US now is apparently in a slow recovery, and China looks like having a soft landing imo
3. Risk appetite of investors is returning
4. AUT inclusion in the ASX300
5. Investor presentations carried out last week, are working
6. We had an abnormal amount of traders and new investors that didnt particularly know the stock and its true potential post CR and SPP, they have been gradually weeded out by taking profits and imo replaced by investors wanting longer term profits.
7. Many funds and individuals have too limited exposure to the stock market and are re-entering as sentiment turns more positive.
8. AUT has a clear funded program for growth, its acerage and operator are imo low risk
9. AUT is priced on low chances of success and is proving that to be wrong
10. Exposure to oil stocks is becoming imo significantly more important as each step of the recovery happens. To prepare for an era of possibly much much higher oil prices.

 

[condog]

DJIA up strongly at 175 at present and oil up really strongly which will bode well monday. It still seems like a total rerating as expected imo.

Eventually imo the derisked growth prospects needed to be taken into account. Still some significant volumes going through, which is very very encouraging.

 

[condog]

Well with the DJIA up almost 200 and oil up nearly 2%, monday is shaping up ok. Bit of risk apetite developing, but how long will it last??

My earlier 1.39 target which caused problems on this thread has come and gone in the blink of an eye. And my new Jan 2011 target of 1.59, seems closer then ever. This imo is looking more and more like a rerating based on derisking. As such ive placed new trendlines on my charts, as shown below.
Note these are only my personal opinions. Do your own research and seek your own advice.

And for the tech heads from Stoxline. The prolonged width of the bollingers is also indicative of perhaps a new trend establishing itself.

 

[5haretrader]

I haven't been good at all of picking AUT's price movements recently. I thought I saw tops at 1.17 and 1.295 but it just keeps on going up. Nevertheless I'll still post this chart because something interesting has developed. Check out this pitchfork.

 

[estseon]

Ton,

Non-residents are only subject to Oz CGT on specified categories of asset

http://www.ato.gov.au/businesses/content.asp?doc=/content/82166.htm&page=3&H3

The current rise in AUT SP might be seen as catching up with the now dated PWC fair value calculation of ADI's SP (at 61 cents). A number of investors applied a 2.5x price multiple to ADI to estimate a fair value of AUT. However, in view of the richness of the principal asset, Longhorn, a higher multiple might be warranted. So anything up to A$1.60 - A$1.80 might be just catch-up with the ADI FV based on previous reserves estimates, decline curves, optimal drilling spacings, drilling programmes, condensate ratios, POO all of which are looking up and, of course, risk, which is reducing.

The dilution effects of the share issues (ADI 15% and AUT 22%) make little difference to the approximation multiple used previously.

Once the market starts to acknowledge the energy demand consequences of the continuing growth of China & India (37% of world population) instead of focussing only on the US (4.5%) and UK/Germany/France/Italy/Spain (about the same), then we should see hardening of POO projections. Then AUT (and EME) should start to re-rate properly.

 

[Sharejon]

5haretrader, personally I don't see AUT venturing back into those trendlines. It could adhere to the same gradient eventually, but in the next week I see it continuing with the last 2 weeks movement. Then it might retrace or continue along the previous gradient, at an elevated price though obviously (due to to this recent accelerated movement). If a retracement were to occur, I see it as being smaller to the previous ones.

 

[condog]

I haven't been good at all of picking AUT's price movements recently. I thought I saw tops at 1.17 and 1.295 but it just keeps on going up. Nevertheless I'll still post this chart because something interesting has developed. Check out this pitchfork.

5hareholder, thats exactly what ive noticed, except i label it as a chnage in trend rather then a pitch fork. Either way its a good signe for AUT.

Esteon agree with all. Once again your analysis is brilliant imo.

Sharejon, i agree, theres is definitley imo a very significant change occuring and imo rightly so. This acerage andthis operator have proved to be world class. This week ive jumped back into SEA on a small scale, as its news was brillinat, but other then the Bakken through SEA and tghis through AUt and EKA, these are definitely the best opportunities available imo.

 

[5haretrader]

Sure, it has the fundamentals to keep on going up to 1.50, 1.60, whatever but eventually there is going to be a point where there will be some profit taking. If you have a look at the RSI and stochastics something is telling me that time could be soon.


Anyways, enough of the charts. I think alot of oil stocks will do well tomorrow. AUT and EKA, as well as two up and comers SEA and SSN should react well to the nice rally in Oil price on Friday.

 

[condog]

Sure, it has the fundamentals to keep on going up to 1.50, 1.60, whatever but eventually there is going to be a point where there will be some profit taking. If you have a look at the RSI and stochastics something is telling me that time could be soon.


Anyways, enough of the charts. I think alot of oil stocks will do well tomorrow. AUT and EKA, as well as two up and comers SEA and SSN should react well to the nice rally in Oil price on Friday.

SSN is still a punt, has upside, based on sale, but its wells are still questionable. SEA has legs and should go imo. EKA looks good on the splits.

Of course AUT will pull back, but when and for how long, there have been people tipping pullbacks since 30 cents that have been very wrong. they where very wrong at 72c, and they will be wrong again. Sure small corrections, but this thing deserves a serious set of legs and it a ppears to be happening.

 

[5haretrader]

SSN is still a punt, has upside, based on sale, but its wells are still questionable. SEA has legs and should go imo. EKA looks good on the splits.

Of course AUT will pull back, but when and for how long, there have been people tipping pullbacks since 30 cents that have been very wrong. they where very wrong at 72c, and they will be wrong again. Sure small corrections, but this thing deserves a serious set of legs and it a ppears to be happening.

Agreed Condog. When I suggest a pullback, I am only talking about those 10-15% retraces that AUT has seen after all its 25%+ rallies this year. I believe it's fair to say, that, short of equity market apocalypse, AUT won't be seeing sub $1 prices ever again. I would even go as far to say that if this one pulls back this week or next, it would only venture back into the 1.20s before another run.

Sound fair??

 

[condog]

I would even go as far to say that if this one pulls back this week or next, it would only venture back into the 1.20s before another run.

Yep no doubt a small pullback at some pont. 20c, though seems a lot given the traders have thinned out substantially and been replaced by "holders" imo.

DJIA up nearly 200, oil upo nearly 2%, SPI up 57, 2:1 buy sell ratio, still plenty of gaps on the sell side. Things look fine. The bollengers are still widely spread, indicating possible new trend. Pitch fork identified, or as i call it a new trend line.

 

[AQR]

Wow big jump start for the day up to 1.475 at one stage, currently at 1.465-up 5.4%

 

[condog]

Wow big jump start for the day up to 1.475 at one stage, currently at 1.465-up 5.4%

Yep and in my mind confirmation of the rerating and changing of the guard. The traders are gone in bulk and the holders / instos/funds have taken hold of the most recent batch.

this is why you let your winners run, so many have sold out along the way and must be kicking themselves so hard.