BBI - Babcock & Brown Infrastructure

[nathanblack]

http://www.lincolnindicators.com.au/sg_current/index.html

not a great review, but i guess its good to have opposing ideas. fails most tests and they criticize loss making and cash flows. a few ticks though.

im going to try that pump and dump in future, when some additional funds clear provided i work out the legalities first. sounds like its ripping people off but nobody is forcing them to join the quee. and there is equal risk that i will get stuck with shares i cant offload, so my gut sys that its probably legit.

anyone have a link to market manipulation and the do's/don'ts?

 

[Viva_Las_Vegas]

Well some ticks, some crosses. Just one brokers opinions and "tests" he uses to assess a stock.

I like the layout and how it sums up the issues in a table form and breaks it down, but overall...... none of what is contained in it is new to this thread. I think we have been over the negs and positives of BBI several times.

I just thought it was intersting to post out there since someone has obviously taken a look at the stock

 

[bellenuit]

I can however see what you mean. For example say the current price is 10.5c and their are sellers at 11c, 11.3c, 11.5c, 12c.

If you had the money you could theoretically buy up all the sellers at each of those levls pushing the price higher.

They are only the visible sellers. I assume there are many sellers and buyers who don't want to show their hands by placing orders and just letting them sit. They wait until the price is what they want and then place an order that gets executed immediately.

You may find that after buying everything up to 12c, there are many sellers out there who are willing to sell at price points under 12c and you are now competing with them as they place their sell orders and bring the price down.

 

[banska bystrica]

There are always sell orders lurking off screen. If I wanted to dump my BEPPA do you think I would show them in the sell line? No way. I would wait until the volume buying was there at my price and then sell.
I would suggest people take a reality check and have a good hard think about what they are trying to do. Swim with sharks and you will be eaten very quickly.
The market is no different.

 

[nathanblack]

Price manipulation
Placing buy or sell orders (or both) into the market in order to change or maintain the price of a stock. The motives for attempting to do this vary:

To increase the value of a position in the stock for accounting or portfolio valuation purposes;
To be able to issue new shares at a higher price; or

To cause such a price rise that other investors are attracted to the stock, creating additional demand and higher prices that the manipulator can sell into

i guess im trying to do the last option, so technically its a no-no. but good luck proving that was my intention. how can they prove that i didnt buy $40k and decide to sell a day later for $50-60k. its my right to buy $40k-$100k of beppa and in doing so push the price up.

i think clearly the one regulators would stamp out is putting misleading info out there to increase price or if im connected to company.

 

[nathanblack]

There are always sell orders lurking off screen. If I wanted to dump my BEPPA do you think I would show them in the sell line? No way. I would wait until the volume buying was there at my price and then sell.
I would suggest people take a reality check and have a good hard think about what they are trying to do. Swim with sharks and you will be eaten very quickly.
The market is no different.

totally understnd what your saying. i made most my gains during BEPPA run up a couple months back. i delibrately limited orders to 100k and 150k to disguise buying /selling. but volumes were higher then. more recently i stick to 100k parcels and they take time to be filled.

i was more thinking out loud, knowing that i have about $60k total in beppa/bbi at the moment and thinking if i didnt trickle my sell or next buy and instead placed one large order if it would have an impact and take out several lines. weather its profitable or not is another story.

and if i did it just on pre-open or another point of the day. as i said thinking aloud only. not doing it tomorow or anything. holding this lot for a little bit yet.

 

[bandicoot76]

Oh and check out this link, I put it on HC as well. A mate emailed it to me, relating to BBI

http://www.lincolnindicators.com.au/sg_current/index.html[/QUOTE]


while reading through this posted link i came across this lil gem:

8 News and Announcements 01/07/2009 DBCT 7X expansion completed No negative news or announcements.
The latest price sensitive news from BBI was the announcement of the completion of the last phase of the DBCT 7X Project, expanding the capacity of the Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal near Mackay to 85 metric tons per annum (Mtpa), an increase of around 50% from the pre-DBCT 7X capacity.

*85 metric tons per annum capacity hey! WOW what a money spinner lol.... it amazes me that these so called analists have such a p*ss poor understanding of the fundamentals of the very things they are supposed to be analizing! for those who dont know what the helli'm talking about 85 metric tonnes is about the average capacity of ONE DUMP TRUCK.... so this so called analist obviously doesnt analise very well.... if he'd written 85 mtpa (85 MILLION tons per annum he'd be on the ball. i bought a decent parcel of BBI at an average of 7c AFTER working on the DBCTX7 expansion project myself... shock horror! a blue collar investor no less!!! lol

 

[Iggy_Pop]

I regularly fly over DBCT for work and noticed yesterday morning that there were 46 ships waiting to load coal. Last trip 2 months ago there were 12 ships.

During the peak of the market nearly two years ago the most seen waiting were approx 70. Things looking up for the coal economy and DBCT.

 

[hardyakka]

Now, if you have been suspended they are very good at detecting if you are registering again under a new name. It is possible, I am told on good authority to get around their system, but you need to know what you are doing.

Poor old NickleesonNumber2. RIP.

Hi,

It is easy to open a new account when somewhere has banned your ip address, all you need is a router. Have a look at this link, it tells you how for a linksys router on a step bt step basis.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJMfazJWDqQ

Just be aware that they also watch for posting styles. When you join do so from an email account that is free but not one of the usual ones.

It has worked for me for months as they monitor by ip address.

 

[nunthewiser]

Hi,

It is easy to open a new account when somewhere has banned your ip address, all you need is a router. Have a look at this link, it tells you how for a linksys router on a step bt step basis.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJMfazJWDqQ

Just be aware that they also watch for posting styles. When you join do so from an email account that is free but not one of the usual ones.

It has worked for me for months as they monitor by ip address.

is HC even worth the bother ?

last time i looked it was full of overpumped lil nazi moderators followed by overpumped lil rampers

the amount of crud one has to sift thru to get anything unbiased or to find much of value seems like a whole waste of time to me

Hot copper jam sand in ya clackas i say!

 

[hardyakka]

A few other comments
It would be quite difficult to manupulate BEPPA because dont forget that there are conditional triggers lurking off market, as soon as the price reaches a certain amount a buy or sell may be triggered and placed. Also it would take an order of several million to even dent the price as persons may buy or sell into it. Manipulation would involve tens of millions of units.

Lincoln
I had a look at that Lincoln analysis and discounted it immediately, its just too simple. Dont forget it was back in the days prior to the release of the Dec accounts that a UBS analyst discounted BBIs assets by 30 od % on the basis that property valuations were dropping significantly in distressed property trusts. That so called analyst ignored or was not aware that the assets were not marked to market and there is a difference between property and regulated infrastructure.

When the DBCT announcement is made before the release of the financials I think we will be smiling somewhat, maybe not buying that yacht yet, but smiling all the same.

Cheers

 

[hardyakka]

is HC even worth the bother ?

last time i looked it was full of overpumped lil nazi moderators followed by overpumped lil rampers

the amount of crud one has to sift thru to get anything unbiased or to find much of value seems like a whole waste of time to me

Hot copper jam sand in ya clackas i say!

Lol..totally agree but I just lerve dargies reference every second post to the DEATH SPIRAL..it is coming and only the faithful will survive the DEATH SPIRAL

 

[cbrendan]

With all the doom and gloom in this thread lately, i thought it would be a good idea to get other holders thoughts on realistic BEPPA/BBI prices in 3 months time.

That would take us through to october and hopefully DBCT, Euroports and PD ports would all be sold.

I can't see BBI getting much higer than 25 cents unless the company has cash to avoid sparcs dilution (not that a 25c SP would be anything to scoff at in light of currrent circumstances)

And i would hope that in 3 months beppa is sitting between 35-40 cents?

Does anyone agree/ disagree with my predictions? Think im dreaming?

More interested in thoughts on BEPPA seeing thats all i hold, but interested in BBI thoughts as well

Cheers

 

[Largesse]

With all the doom and gloom in this thread lately, i thought it would be a good idea to get other holders thoughts on realistic BEPPA/BBI prices in 3 months time.

That would take us through to october and hopefully DBCT, Euroports and PD ports would all be sold.

I can't see BBI getting much higer than 25 cents unless the company has cash to avoid sparcs dilution (not that a 25c SP would be anything to scoff at in light of currrent circumstances)

And i would hope that in 3 months beppa is sitting between 35-40 cents?

Does anyone agree/ disagree with my predictions? Think im dreaming?

More interested in thoughts on BEPPA seeing thats all i hold, but interested in BBI thoughts as well

Cheers

Hilarious post

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[Mitsimonsta]

You are welcome for the laugh!!! Thing is I am actually serious. You see when I do get my $1.20 per BEPPA share I will put the 15 h00ker g@ngB@ng fantasy into play and guess what? With the 15 hookers I can do all sorts of RESTRUCTURING! LOL

Oh my lord you make me laugh..... But I feel that if that fantasy does come into play, you may cause yourself an injury, possibly a groin strain?

Mitsi I must thank you once again for telling me to hang in there with my HFA!!! THANK YOU!!!!

It was the bottom of the market, the SP had seemed to have settled out although market volatility was at it's highest. You were running around like a headless chook on a caffine drip. You just needed to settle down, take a breath, and look at what the market was doing. It was starting to flatten out, some stocks were even going up.

Okay, we all have made at least one 'questionable' trade. In most cases, we just sit on it for a bit longer and see what happens. Fairly soon after that post of mine, things picked up overall and today HFA last traded at 22c.

The chart is channelling upwards, so if you haven't sold them yet, then I would maybe 'wait and see' for a bit longer. I forsee a bit of resistance at 23-23.5c, after that I would wait for it to jump and then sell about 25c.

 

[cbrendan]

Hilarious post

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If dbct sells for ~2.7 bil, we get screwed by a few % on europerts but still make a sale, and if pd ports sells at even a slight loss, why would the beppa price not be 35 cents?

Without corporate debt the risk of admin is removed, and BEPPa holders will be getting $1 worth of something in 2012. Be it cash or BBI stock, so diluted that beppa holders become majority holders?

Why am i being hilarious?

 

[nathanblack]

If dbct sells for ~2.7 bil, we get screwed by a few % on europerts but still make a sale, and if pd ports sells at even a slight loss, why would the beppa price not be 35 cents?

Without corporate debt the risk of admin is removed, and BEPPa holders will be getting $1 worth of something in 2012. Be it cash or BBI stock, so diluted that beppa holders become majority holders?

Why am i being hilarious?

i guess largesse is just saying theres alot of IFs there.
1. IF DBCT sells for ~$2.7bil ...may sell for less or only a 49% stake.
2. IF we get screwed by few % euroports...may be more or get called off(requiring return of deposit)
3.IF pd ports sells at slight loss...again could be more than slight loss or no sale.

Really it is impossible to predict/even guess a 3month price target given the uncertainty around DBCT. the exact timing of sale will effect cash on hand and refinancing options in november for sparcs conversion.

the exact percentage of sale affects the amount of debt that can be paid down, as does the final sale price.

overall though i agree that most of your IFs are the probable outcomes IMHO only, others may disagree. i think pd ports will sell if BBI need it too and we will take a loss(insignificant compared to DBCT price). i also agree euroports will sell and probably only slightly discounted like QIC did to powerco.

the biggest and by far most significant and uncertain aspect is DBCT. until we know 49%-100% sale and ~$2.5b-3bil range we cannot predict the handling of sparcs(particularly important for BBI price not so much for BEPPA), we will not know how much corporate debt can be repaid, and we will not know if a capital raising/restructure will be required.

however assuming 100% sale, i think your figures seem about right. ive been saying all along about a 3x or 4x growth in SP for both BBI and BEPPA under those circumstances. your numbers fall inline with that. i think BBI might slightly outperform BEPPA in that time frame, but after that its hard to see much organic growth in BBI over medium-long term, whereas BEPPA will continue to grow linearly until 2012 $1 odd.

 

[Viva_Las_Vegas]

The following is a joke, but to me it's an analogy for BEPPA in a way

A Ukrainian walked into a bank in Toronto and asked for the loan officer.


He told the loan officer that he was going to Kiev on business for two weeks and needed to borrow $5,000 and that he was not a depositor of the bank. The bank officer told him that the bank would need some form of security for the loan, so the Ukrainian handed over the keys to a new Ferrari. The car was parked on the street in front of the bank.
The Ukrainian produced the title and everything checked out. The loan officer agreed to hold the car as collateral for the loan and apologized for having to charge 12% interest.
Later, the bank's president and its officers all enjoyed a good laugh at the Ukrainian for using a $250,000 Ferrari as collateral for a $5,000 loan. An employee of the bank then drove the Ferrari into the bank's underground garage and parked it.

Two weeks later, the Ukrainian returned, repaid the $5,000 and the interest of $23.07. The loan officer said, "Sir, we are very happy to have had your business, and this transaction has worked out very nicely, but we are a little puzzled. While you were away, we checked you out and found that you are a multimillionaire. What
puzzles us is; why would you bother to borrow $5,000?"

The Ukrainian replied: "Where else in Toronto can I park my car for two weeks for only $23.07 and expect it to be there when I return?"

 

[hardyakka]

Good news for PD Ports business

"Jul 16, 2009 PD Ports welcomes decision approving MGT power station to be built at Teesport PD Ports, the owner of Teesport, welcomes the Government’s decision to approve MGT Power’s 295 megawatt (MW) wood fuelled power station which is to be built on the South Dock area of the port. One of the largest biomass plants set to be built in the UK, the Tees Renewable Energy Plant will produce enough carbon neutral, sustainable electricity to power 600,000 homes across the North East.

The announcement is very good news for the area. MGT Power’s £500m investment is bringing a new impetus to the area in terms of the size of its renewable energy power station. MGT Power has a grid connection agreement; it has secured long term supply contracts for biomass feedstock from managed sustainable forests and plantations, and suppliers ready to take on plant construction. The port has the plans ready for a new quay wall and crane capacity at Teesdock. The plant will require 2 -3 years for construction and will be operational by autumn 2012.

“With MGT Power’s plan becoming a reality, we will see a new traffic flow of over 2m tonnes per annum through the port. This is great news,” stated PD Ports’ Group Chief Executive David Robinson.

MGT Power had received planning approval from Redcar & Cleveland Borough Council in November 2008 and has now received the final approval from the Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC) to proceed (known as the Section 36 approval).

“We have moved a long way forward over the past year and are grateful for the help of all our local partners to realise our plans. The local MPs Vera Baird and Ashok Kumar, PD Ports and Redcar & Cleveland Council have all been enormously helpful to us,” commented Chris Moore, Director at MGT Power. “We can now secure all the detailed financing plans, let the construction contracts, and start building. We remain very optimistic that we can be ready in three years time.”

Key Facts: Background

The project is a 295MW (megawatt) base load renewable electricity generator, and one of the world’s largest renewable energy projects of any type. The project will bring over £500m of investment into the local area during its 3 year construction period, meaning 600 construction jobs followed by 150 onsite jobs for up to 40 years. Once operational, the renewable plant will spend over £30m per year on maintenance and support services. With the Tees Valley’s core industrial expertise and experience most of this spending is set to be absorbed by local labour and firms sustaining 300-400 indirect jobs each year for the local economy.

The 295MW plant will be constructed on land adjacent to the main southern dock at Teesport, on the south bank of the River Tees. In addition to its deep-water facilities, the plant is well served by arterial transport routes such as the A66, A19, A1 and the main East coast rail network.

It is also close to the National Grid electricity transmission system and MGT Teesside – the developer for the project and wholly-owned subsidiary of MGT Power Ltd – has a transmission contract with the National Grid Company to export power from the site from 2012.

The project will comprise a single, circulating fluidised bed boiler that will burn wood chip to produce steam. The steam will be used to turn a steam turbine, which will in turn power a generator to produce electricity.

Once operational in late 2012, the plant will save 1.2m tonnes of CO2 per year and will account for 5.5% of the UK’s renewable electricity target."

 

[hardyakka]

Hilarious post

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Is that the best analytical evidence you can provide of why BBI assets, including PD Ports, DBCT and Euroports are dogs?

Give me facts and figures, data sources, anything verifiable so that I can understand your reasoned conclusions.

largesse-Does the gain of the Tesco business and power station through put offset the loss of Corus? If not why not?

Cheers