BBI - Babcock & Brown Infrastructure

[thelawyer]

from what i can understand reading this thread..

beppa can be seen to be the more 'safer'/'secure' investment
beppa hinges on bbi's survival

ive got a lazy 4k to chuck into beppa or bbi.. what would have the potential to have a higher percentage growth in share price if bbi gets rid of all corporate debt through better than expected asset sales?

what is the more likely scenario?

not asking for a recommendation of sorts.. but a guide as to what people think.... now would be the time to buy? from my understanding as bbi are under the 0.08 zone and beppa were under 0.10 and before that announcement in this quarter...

 

[ricee007]

from what i can understand reading this thread..

beppa can be seen to be the more 'safer'/'secure' investment
beppa hinges on bbi's survival

Yes.

BEPPA is a preference share, which makes it more safe and secure.

Technically... it doens't hinge on BBI surviving... but in reality, it laregly does.

ive got a lazy 4k to chuck into beppa or bbi..

If only I was lucky enough to have:
A. $4,000 to chuck on BEPPA.
B. $4,000 to chuck on a share I know nothing about.

what would have the potential to have a higher percentage growth in share price if bbi gets rid of all corporate debt through better than expected asset sales?

30th June 2012 BEPPA matures (assuming no reset votes, etc).
What BBI share price will be in 3 years time is anyones guess. BEPPA is effectively limited to $1.30 or so.

what is the more likely scenario?

Your risk profile (thus investing strategy) is different to mine. Personally, I bought BEPPA at 10c... and I don't give a toss what BBI share price is in 2012.

BBI may be higher than $1.20/$1.30 in June 2012.... BEPPA is capped at that sorta price.....

My personal thoughts is that BBI may be around $1.50 or so 30 June 2012... however, my risk profile says to be happy turning my $2150 in BEPPA into about $26,230.

not asking for a recommendation of sorts.. but a guide as to what people think.... now would be the time to buy? from my understanding as bbi are under the 0.08 zone and beppa were under 0.10 and before that announcement in this quarter...

IMHO the best time to buy would have been when BEPPA was 4c or so...

Having said that, if I had free cash I would very happily buy $3000 worth of BEPPA now. If BEPPA didn't exist, I would also be happy buying BBI now.

Short term, theres still both upwards and downward price pressure. Which one will win is anyones guess.

Most people here expect an announcment regarding Darlypman (SPELLING, I just woke up) Bay Coal Terminal (DBCT) in June... which will significantly improve the share price... As in, potentially triple or quadruple it. By then, I'm sure you would be dissapointed if you WEREN'T holding BBI or BEPPA (this would pretty much ensure BBI's survival, in a lot of peoples mind)....

However, if for whatever reason, DBCT doesn't sell. BBI *MAY* be in trouble.... and you'd be disappointed if you *WERE* holding BBI/BEPPA.

Overall:
BBI is an ordinary share, so obviously has unlimited potential.
BEPPA is locked to interest rates, realistically its *VERY* hard to see it above $1.30 30th June 2012...

However, what BBI will be doing 30th June 2012... and just how happy you are with being limited to receiving a (upto) 1200% return on investment is up to you.

 

[thelawyer]

assume that the dbct doesnt sell.. in this quarter.. does that mean the share price would drop significantly due to sellers pre-empting that bbi is on the road to adminstration.. or would that mean they just havent reached a final agreement on the sale of dbct. would u see a SIGNIFICANT drop in share price as in from 0.08 down to 0.01 or would u see maybe a 0.01 decrease? obviously u cannot predict future market conditions.. but what would the likelihood be of a huge sell by holders in response to no announcement on the sale? btw thanks for your info^^^

also if there is no confirmed sale or it doesnt happen.. if i read correctly.. will beppa holders be paid out before bbi holders?

 

[nathanblack]

also if there is no confirmed sale or it doesnt happen.. if i read correctly.. will beppa holders be paid out before bbi holders?

CORRECT. SPARCS rank above BEPPA which in turn ranks above BBI. in the event of administration, NTA is about 90c/share atm so there is plenty of breathing room. But remember administration is a slow complicated process. it may take years to see anything and how much is unknown.

in response to the possible event after a june announcement, the announcement isnt necesarily a sale notificication. its an update on progress, interested buyers, structures of the deal and offered prices. any actual sale will occur later after due diligence and consideration.

a negative announcement would be that there was little or no interest, that the price is less than book value or that the payment and finalalisation of sale is deep into end year.

 

[ricee007]

If no *firm* offer is received within the next 3 months...
AND:
Corus backs out of PD Ports.
Tesco doesn't use PD Ports.
BBI gets screwed with Euroports.
Westnet stops transporting most of its grain.
The annual report isn't as good as people hoped

BBI may be in trouble. I *doubt* they would crash, but they would probably get some very bad refinancing terms. This would EAT the share price alive.

I won't post a target... but if all that ^^ bad news happened.... I would guess much closer to 1c than 8c!

Then again, my research tells me DBCT is a world class asset with multiple interested parties that have enough cash.

 

[Stakes]

hey all,

i have been looking through a number of forums to find that there has been a slight change in the sentiment towards BBI even before the 2.78% increase today. There is a support level at 6.9 cents if worst came to worst so overall i believe we will not be dropping below that within the next two weeks at least. My buying average is higher at 8 cents sadly but i'm confident in BBI's short term potential at the minimum....

In my opinion from the volume that has been traded over the past days of trading;

25 May 2009 - 26,024,508
22 May 2009 - 33,207,021
21 May 2009 - 45,242,875
20 May 2009 - 38,993,321
19 May 2009 - 35,511,620
18 May 2009 - 53,092,693

That the santos issue is not over! There is a positive side to it though from what i see and that is that their shares will gradually be released into the market in the next couple of weeks for those that dont want to hold BBI.

BBI's volatiliy and volume impress me and are one of the main reasons that i like trading BBI. But traders should not be deterred by the recent volatilily as signs of change within the sp. I think that BBI has reached its bottom and should continue upwards over this week and hopefully into next week as recovery from last weeks damage. I don't know what price it is likely to go to but 10.5 cents seems like a reasonable "estimation!!!!"....


What do you think?

 

[ricee007]

In my opinion from the volume that has been traded over the past days of trading;

25 May 2009 - 26,024,508
22 May 2009 - 33,207,021
21 May 2009 - 45,242,875
20 May 2009 - 38,993,321
19 May 2009 - 35,511,620
18 May 2009 - 53,092,693

That the santos issue is not over!

But, the trading volumes over the last 6 days aren't much??? 35M, 38M, 33M, 26M are tiny. I remember 50M+ seemingly being normal....

There is a positive side to it though from what i see and that is that their shares will gradually be released into the market in the next couple of weeks for those that dont want to hold BBI.

That's being optimistic, but may be true.

BBI's volatiliy and volume impress me and are one of the main reasons that i like trading BBI. But traders should not be deterred by the recent volatilily as signs of change within the sp. I think that BBI has reached its bottom and should continue upwards over this week and hopefully into next week as recovery from last weeks damage. I don't know what price it is likely to go to but 10.5 cents seems like a reasonable "estimation!!!!"....
What do you think?

Do you mean SPRACS, not santos? I am very bullish long-term on BBI, but I can't begin to guess next weeks price If I had to... I guess 10c would be reasonable.

Since *ABOUT* 11th march, over 40M BBI have traded around 12 times... so the fact that 2 out of the last 6 days are above 40M means very little...

 

[Stakes]

sorry yes i did mean SPRACS, my apologies rice, very stupid mistake....

what i found with the trading volumes is that they are well below what they normally are but i;m not sure if that is a good sign or bad???

what message does it give you rice?

 

[ricee007]

sorry yes i did mean SPRACS, my apologies rice, very stupid mistake....

what i found with the trading volumes is that they are well below what they normally are but i;m not sure if that is a good sign or bad???

what message does it give you rice?

Ohhhh thought you were implying trading volumes were high

To be honest, it's about average since mid march... look at the last 6 months (asx.com.au works well enough)...

I would have thought that there would have been more SPARCS being traded, to be honest...

The fact that there hasn't been record levels could indicate:
SPARCS aren't being sold as much as I thought.
SPARCS will in the near future be heavily sold.

I don't have a guess as to which .

All I know is that, medium and long term I'm very bullish

 

[fureien]

wow some nice recovery with beppa and bbi today.
bbi seeing resistance at 8 cents
but the volume looks so strong throughout the 7 - 8 cents range. it might actually hold.
looks like it wont be dropping below 7 cents anytime soon

if you look at the 5 day chart for bbi (yeh i know thats a bit short)
it looks to be a slight uptrend.

 

[banska bystrica]

As I said over at HC, I'm back in BBI at average 7.4c and I have no idea if that will hold but what I do know is that at least one of the big buyers is back in action chomping away. By the course of sales data, they seemed to acquire about 10M today and they took out about 3M on the close and it finished at 7.9c.

 

[fureien]

if you dont mind me asking. how can you tell that its one of the big buyers that are buying? i can never seem to figure out these things

 

[investorpaul]

As I said over at HC, I'm back in BBI at average 7.4c and I have no idea if that will hold but what I do know is that at least one of the big buyers is back in action chomping away. By the course of sales data, they seemed to acquire about 10M today and they took out about 3M on the close and it finished at 7.9c.

Just out of interest BB how do you tell that from the course of sales?

Are you looking for a number of sellers being taken out within a couple of seconds of each other by a large buyer? or do you look for regular time gaps between orders of a similar size which could indicate someone buying x number of shares every x number of minutes.

 

[investorpaul]

if you dont mind me asking. how can you tell that its one of the big buyers that are buying? i can never seem to figure out these things

ha you beat me to it, I just asked the same question.

Any way heres another one. Any ideas what the intention of the buy may be? just holding for long term value? either way it must be positive.

 

[Largesse]

unless its him doing the 'chomping', he doesn't KNOW, he is just guessing.

3 000 000 @ 7.8c is only about 230k. Not even a large position for some day traders.

 

[fureien]

either way the stock is moving slightly upwards a bit. all facts considered, especially now that we are nearing june, and assuming most of sparcs converters have sold out or decided to hold. maybe it might just be recovering?

im personally gunna wait a bit or it breaks 8 cents again before i assume anything though.

 

[banska bystrica]

unless its him doing the 'chomping', he doesn't KNOW, he is just guessing.

3 000 000 @ 7.8c is only about 230k. Not even a large position for some day traders.

I don't know what Deutsche Bank are doing and they have bought over 100M this year and sold zero.
I do know what the other big buyer is doing though and they are back in today.
10M bought today is roughly $750K.... just a bit more than even the bigger day traders largesse. lol

 

[Largesse]

I don't know what Deutsche Bank are doing and they have bought over 100M this year and sold zero.
I do know what the other big buyer is doing though and they are back in today.
10M bought today is roughly $750K.... just a bit more than the average day trader largesse. lol

DB's disclosed buying over the last month doesn't mean squat with regard to today's 'chomping'. Buying today could be anyone.
And you're 'other big buyer' hasn't yet cracked 5%.... so there is no evidence that this is true either.
Finally, please direct me to where you/I can see that a singular entity purchased 10m shares today.... there is nothing to prove or even suggest that the purchase on close was in anyway related to ANY buying through out the day.

Also, didn't say 'average' day trader. I have a 25year old friend that move's bigger blocks than 250k all day long, it isn't uncommon.

You clearly have a position again, and I appreciate all the work you have put into research over the past months, but enough with the BS innuendo.

 

[banska bystrica]

I suggest you re-read my post in full before you start having a go at me.

I may also know a lot more about the buyer than you think so I suggest you keep your "BS innuendo" references to yourself. We don't need garbage like that on this fine forum.

I'm hardly going to name the fund manager either. I have not been told WHY they are buying. All I know is they ARE buying.

 

[Largesse]

I suggest you re-read my post in full before you start having a go at me.

I may also know a lot more about the buyer than you think so I suggest you keep your "BS innuendo" references to yourself. We don't need garbage like that on this fine forum.

I'm hardly going to name the fund manager either. I have not been told WHY they are buying. All I know is they ARE buying.

Everything you are suggesting still remains unsubstantiated and could easily be classed as a thily veiled ramp. You should be moderated for it.