BBI - Babcock & Brown Infrastructure

[Mitsimonsta]

good return? even if it takes the administrators 2years to give you your 20cents?

In my situation, it is still well over double bank interest, actually it would be close to three times, even if it did take 2 years to get the payout.

Anyway, I am in it for the long haul. Looks like BLP has had a small jump in SP today

 

[banska bystrica]

A liquidation would take many, many years. Bell Group took 15 years. BBI would take a minimum of 5 years and possibly more. I haven't loaded up with BEPPA to wait for liquidation. I'm in it for a big re-rating in the next 6-12 months.

 

[nathanblack]

205mil odd new shares issued at 9.84cents for SPARCS. atleast the weighted average was pretty good due to recent gains.

 

[banska bystrica]

2.58Bn BBI securities on issue now. NAV drops to 92c. Stock is still ridiculously cheap at a 91% discount to NAV.
I am prepared to buy more BEPPA but only at 6c or cheaper. I have more than enough if things work out positively so I don't need to chase the stock.

 

[Mitsimonsta]

I am prepared to buy more BEPPA but only at 6c or cheaper. I have more than enough if things work out positively so I don't need to chase the stock.

That's exactly what I have been trying to say, only not as eloquently. My buying point is higher than yours however, but that is all horses for courses, different portfolios and vastly different sums invested.

Looking for my next buy target now..... unless BEPPA drops more, I don't think I will be buying. It would have to be under my average buy price now...

 

[random]

I genuinely don't know if i am happy or sad with the current sp.
If it goes down further i buy more beppa and if it goes the other way i just grin.
The bottom line is that i'm a believer that we survive. These are just the trials and tribulations we endure.
A few months and we will know for sure!

 

[Mitsimonsta]

Nvm.....

 

[nathanblack]

Nvm.....

yeah i was just taking the piss of him (Max) because he just comes here to stir trouble.

the SP is a tough one at the moment. remove the big (unexpected) run up that occured 2weeks ago, then consinder where we were and were we are. its been a pretty solid, steady incline since the lows. all we did was give back all the gains from a few huge days.

and although the risk/ reward equation has many variables today, its only a matter of a month now until end of june when an announcement is scheduled regard DBCT. so , one way or another we will be in a better position to judge.

we need to know if a sale will go through, when it will go through, for what stake (100% or less) and the amount achieved. once this has happened there will be a re-rating up or down and a change in volatility.

1month and counting...

 

[johannlo]

OK sorry to be a pain but can someone explain to me what BEPPA is. Is it a stock that is actually a loan or something like that? e.g. its BBI's debt packaged as a security.

I'm a newbie (obviously) and I've only invested in FPO shares to date. Including BBI (doh), a painful knife cut and one for the lesson book.

thanks in advance

 

[bunyip]

I can see that value investing is the favoured approach of quite a few of you who own BBI, or are considering investing in it.

An entirely different school of thought is that performance, not perceived value, is a better basis for stock selection.

Here are my views on BBI for what they're worth.....

Sticking with BBI could prove a costly mistake for owners of this stock.
Sure, its share price increased six fold in recent months, but now it's lost more than half that gain in just the last few days as it goes into free fall.
This is the sort of volatile price action that results when investors are uncertain what to make of a stock, and their sentiment swings back and forward between wild exuberance and doom and gloom.

The word is that BBI is drowning in debt. That alone should be enough to set alarm bells ringing and send prudent investors heading for the exit gate. Time enough to reinvest in the company later if it manages to overcome its problems and get back on a sound footing.
A couple of years ago I expressed similar opinions on the GTP thread in relation to that stock. My view ruffled the feathes of a couple of GTP investors who then prodeeded to give me a lambasting. They're not lambasting me now that GTP has folded.
I can never see any point in sticking with dogs of stocks while they wallow in non-performance for extended periods of time. It can be a very costly way to have your funds invested, even if they pay a decent dividend, and even if the company eventually comes good. It ties up your capital and prevents you from investing in performing stocks. At worst it can result in the loss of 100% of your investment, as GTP investors can attest to.

 

[boff]

OK sorry to be a pain but can someone explain to me what BEPPA is. Is it a stock that is actually a loan or something like that? e.g. its BBI's debt packaged as a security.

I'm a newbie (obviously) and I've only invested in FPO shares to date. Including BBI (doh), a painful knife cut and one for the lesson book.

thanks in advance

Dude - you can't be that sorry if you haven't read through some of the posts in this thread.
Have a read of the pages around here -> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8646&highlight=beppa&page=12
That should help get you up to speed.

 

[johannlo]

Thanks for that link. I didn't read through all 62 pages or whatever length, just started from around 6 months ago when the SP was already in the dumps

 

[banska bystrica]

I can see that value investing is the favoured approach of quite a few of you who own BBI, or are considering investing in it.

An entirely different school of thought is that performance, not perceived value, is a better basis for stock selection.

Here are my views on BBI for what they're worth.....

Sticking with BBI could prove a costly mistake for owners of this stock.
Sure, its share price increased six fold in recent months, but now it's lost more than half that gain in just the last few days as it goes into free fall.
This is the sort of volatile price action that results when investors are uncertain what to make of a stock, and their sentiment swings back and forward between wild exuberance and doom and gloom.

The word is that BBI is drowning in debt. That alone should be enough to set alarm bells ringing and send prudent investors heading for the exit gate. Time enough to reinvest in the company later if it manages to overcome its problems and get back on a sound footing.
A couple of years ago I expressed similar opinions on the GTP thread in relation to that stock. My view ruffled the feathes of a couple of GTP investors who then prodeeded to give me a lambasting. They're not lambasting me now that GTP has folded.
I can never see any point in sticking with dogs of stocks while they wallow in non-performance for extended periods of time. It can be a very costly way to have your funds invested, even if they pay a decent dividend, and even if the company eventually comes good. It ties up your capital and prevents you from investing in performing stocks. At worst it can result in the loss of 100% of your investment, as GTP investors can attest to.

You are entitled to your opinion. BBI has been a stellar performer for me. I first posted on here about BBI in November when I purchased 800,000 at 2.5c. I have exited my entire BBI holding and used the funds to buy BEPPA. This switching has been happening for months.
The last of my BBI's were sold at 11.5c on Friday morning after selling 1.5M at 12c about fifteen minutes earlier.
The net result is I hold a large quantity of BEPPA at average price 3c. This includes the cash I have taken off the table in selling the remaining 2.5M BBI's over the past fortnight. I have not paid more than 12.5c for BEPPA.
I think the rewards of doing the hundreds of hours of research are tremendous. To have a very sizeable position in BEPPA at such a low average sure beats putting my money in CBA or WES.
It's all about risk/reward. If you wait until there is little risk, you will end up paying 30c+ for BBI and 50c for BEPPA. There are still risks (Euroports, PD Ports) but that's why the stock is under 8c.

 

[hardyakka]

I can see that value investing is the favoured approach of quite a few of you who own BBI, or are considering investing in it.

An entirely different school of thought is that performance, not perceived value, is a better basis for stock selection.

Every viewpoint is welcome as each provides a different perspective on a stock.

Whether you are a value or growth investor, isn't the end objective performance? To my mind performance is simply the end measurement of an investing strategy.

You should never invest on the basis of past performance, ASIC's standard required warning is "past performance is not indicative of future performance".

Cheers

 

[bunyip]

You are entitled to your opinion. BBI has been a stellar performer for me. I first posted on here about BBI in November when I purchased 800,000 at 2.5c. I have exited my entire BBI holding and used the funds to buy BEPPA. This switching has been happening for months.
The last of my BBI's were sold at 11.5c on Friday morning after selling 1.5M at 12c about fifteen minutes earlier.
The net result is I hold a large quantity of BEPPA at average price 3c. This includes the cash I have taken off the table in selling the remaining 2.5M BBI's over the past fortnight. I have not paid more than 12.5c for BEPPA.
I think the rewards of doing the hundreds of hours of research are tremendous. To have a very sizeable position in BEPPA at such a low average sure beats putting my money in CBA or WES.
It's all about risk/reward. If you wait until there is little risk, you will end up paying 30c+ for BBI and 50c for BEPPA. There are still risks (Euroports, PD Ports) but that's why the stock is under 8c.

Well done on your success with BBI. You got in and you got out again.....in other words you traded it.
My warning was against sticking with the stock long term in the face of its high debt levels and generally poor fundamentals.
Investors who did that with GTP are now paying dearly.
BBI has the potential to dish out a similar outcome.

 

[banska bystrica]

I wouldn't call 7 months a trade. I am also heavily into BEPPA as I believe the NAV of 92c is realistic. For BEPPA to be worthless, there has to be impairments of $3.2BN. Looking through the assets and their performance to March 31 inspires confidence to me that the assets can be sold at book value or above.
BBI is basically an investment on whether DBCT can sell for $2.5Bn or more. It's a great investment on a risk/reward basis.

 

[bunyip]

Every viewpoint is welcome as each provides a different perspective on a stock.

Whether you are a value or growth investor, isn't the end objective performance? To my mind performance is simply the end measurement of an investing strategy.


Cheers

Yes, performance is the end objective.
I was referring to the practice of selecting stocks on the basis that they're performing strongly right now, as opposed to buying non-performing stocks because they've fallen far enough to appear cheap, then you stick with them in the hope they'll perform well over the long term.
Such a strategy might be sound enough if the company has decent fundamentals and you can afford to go for lengthy periods with little or no return on your money.
But it has to be a risky practice in stocks that are drowning in debt.
There are many examples of debt-ridden stocks that brought investors undone when they followed that strategy. TIM and GTP are recent cases. I wonder if BBI will be another.

 

[hardyakka]

Yes, performance is the end objective.
I was referring to the practice of selecting stocks on the basis that they're performing strongly right now, as opposed to buying non-performing stocks because they've fallen far enough to appear cheap, then you stick with them in the hope they'll perform well over the long term.
Such a strategy might be sound enough if the company has decent fundamentals and you can afford to go for lengthy periods with little or no return on your money.
But it has to be a risky practice in stocks that are drowning in debt.
There are many examples of debt-ridden stocks that brought investors undone when they followed that strategy. TIM and GTP are recent cases. I wonder if BBI will be another.

If you adopt a strategy of selecting stocks on the basis that they are performing strongly now and hence I would assume this performance is reflected in the price (which would be toward the stocks highs) arent you making the mistake of buying high on the assumption that current performance is reflective of future high performance?

To my mind this exposes you to significant downside risk as you are buying at a high on the above noted performance assumption. Whereas by buying a stock which your research indicates has been oversold by the market then the downside is minimal and upside significant.

You have to also consider each stock on its merits eg BBI regulated income stream, quality assets, significant NTA etc as against GTP where investment was driven by tax considerations, high front end fees, no real title to assets etc.

Cheers

 

[fureien]

gargh bbi back up near 9 cents again, i sold too early lol
wonder if this will hold up, but at least we know the support is around 8 cents

 

[awg]

The net result is I hold a large quantity of BEPPA at average price 3c. .

Hi BB

is this a typo?

lowest price for BEPPA ever was 4c

cant figure out how you could have that average buy price