Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Aussiest]

no not a million yet but a consistent 200+ pips a week

That's great, honestly! I'm glad to hear an Aussie is cleaning up, especially a Melbournian

I just don't think that TA alone can predict the market direction, but maybe i expressed myself wrong.

Let's just call it a day and agree to disagree. That neither of us has a crystal ball and if you did, you bet i'd be your best friend. Lol...

Sense of humour

No, but really. In all seriousness, if i am wrong, i gladly admit it. And, as you would know, the market makes me pay the price...

 

[>Apocalypto<]

That's great, honestly! I'm glad to hear an Aussie is cleaning up, especially a Melbournian

I am not pulling in 200 pips a week ATM. I am working on it. I am doing ok.

I just don't think that TA alone can predict the market direction, but maybe i expressed myself wrong.

Depends how u look at a chart many ways to. charts interperate every thing games and opinion every thing. preperation for news. it's all there. You can't say a chart got it wrong as it only shows what's told to.

Let's just call it a day and agree to disagree. That neither of us has a crystal ball and if you did, you bet i'd be your best friend. Lol...

ok

Sense of humour

No, but really. In all seriousness, if i am wrong, i gladly admit it. And, as you would know, the market makes me pay the price...

they sure make me pay the price when I slip up.....

 

[Aussiest]

COLOR="Blue"]Depends how u look at a chart many ways to. charts interperate every thing games and opinion every thing. preperation for news. it's all there. You can't say a chart got it wrong as it only shows what's told to.[/COLOR]

No offense and in all seriousness, I've never gotten how somebody can predict the future on chart patterns. I see what you mean by "it's all there, it tells the story". I just don't get how/why some people can predict and "trade" from a chart, when it's historical information. Maybe i'm missing something? I do, however, adhere to some support & resistance patterns and that's only because i have seen them in real life action. Eg, i've followed certain stocks and seen how market psychology combined with news events has affected certain SP action.

Oh yeah, look at the POG atm. Interesting. My prediction was: US rallies tonight (which i doubt), gold fluctuates down a bit. US slumps, gold up.

I've been following NCM and am confused by the price action.

Your opinion on the POG and how it is affecting gold stocks at the moment?! It's all a bit weird at the moment. My only conclusion is that punters are unsure of market direction at the moment and therefore are not betting on defensive stocks It really should have rallied by now.

 

[CanOz]

A lucky one off

The FOREX has been a real Challenge for last 2 months.

Whew! Here i thought it was just me!

Why is it that its been so difficult? Risk aversion? Range bound?

Your thoughts Apocal?

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[CanOz]

I've never gotten how somebody can predict the future on chart patterns. I see what you mean by "it's all there, it tells the story". I just don't get how/why some people can predict and "trade" from a chart, when it's historical information. Maybe i'm missing something? I do, however, adhere to some support & resistance patterns and that's only because i have seen them in real life action. Eg, i've followed certain stocks and seen how market psychology combined with news events has affected certain SP action.


Your opinion?

Aussiest, most generally Technicians try and use probability and then trade and money management techniques to squew the numbers in your favor so that over a period of time your system is profitable. Its not about being right, its about being wrong for less time and money.

Nothing can predict the future, yet.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[GumbyLearner]

Aussiest, most generally Technicians try and use probability and then trade and money management techniques to squew the numbers in your favor so that over a period of time your system is profitable. Its not about being right, its about being wrong for less time and money.

Nothing can predict the future, yet.

Cheers,


CanOz

Yes no-one can predict the future!

 

[explod]

Yes no-one can predict the future!

Very true, but we can follow the trend.

Todays close of US$930.90 is a significant event according to analysts.

We will have to wait and see, but the trend is certainly up folks.

regards explod

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Whew! Here i thought it was just me!

Why is it that its been so difficult? Risk aversion? Range bound?

Your thoughts Apocal?

Cheers,


CanOz

Hi Canoz

Mate the problem with the spot cash markets is the interbank credit problems. Yes the good old subprime...

All the banks on the FOREX (interbank market) trade with each other on credit lines. ATM with the losses and the destruction of Lehman Brothers and the massive capital reductions via losses it's killed liquidity. (lending fear)

The FOREX feels a lot different to 06-mid 08. Also with rates at these stupid levels the carry trades have been cut massively.

Good old melt downs!

Hope you're doing well mate...

Good Trading

Joseph

 

[MRC & Co]

Yep, it's a tough old time hey Joseph!

I reckon this year, there is probably 5x less month on offer in this trading game! Ah well, gotta do what you gotta do! For us that love it, the passion doesn't die, regardless of how much you earn!

All the best.

 

[CanOz]

Hi Canoz

Mate the problem with the spot cash markets is the interbank credit problems. Yes the good old subprime...

All the banks on the FOREX (interbank market) trade with each other on credit lines. ATM with the losses and the destruction of Lehman Brothers and the massive capital reductions via losses it's killed liquidity. (lending fear)

The FOREX feels a lot different to 06-mid 08. Also with rates at these stupid levels the carry trades have been cut massively.

Good old melt downs!

Hope you're doing well mate...

Good Trading

Joseph

I couldn't be better Joseph, i trust the same for you.

I'm in the middle of Soros' new book and he eludes to the FX markets a couple of times, its a great read if you want to know how this disaster came about and what governments could do to repair the damage. Of course there is the small matter of political will involved here.

Take care Joseph,


CanOz

 

[explod]

Very quiet around here, unusual. But not on the gold front. After some consolidation we are now have a nice steady rise. I think that a large uptick may be soon and the 1000 mark is not too far away at that.

The US dollar is gradually falling from its uptrend and looking like it may fall as fast as it rose last year. The Dow last night only fell 50 points but it was on a big increase in volume. Sparks are set to fly folks ... but we shall see.

cheers and looking for you to tell I am wrong

explod

 

[>Apocalypto<]

cheers and looking for you to tell I am wrong

explod

looking for who??

I am with u explod I am long eur/usd......

 

[skyQuake]

Anyone see price action last nite? I haven't been looking at gold for a while but last night just seemed like pure strength.

Base metals, Oil were tanking, usd was rallying but gold held on very resiliently and eventually rocketed off.

 

[wonderrman]

The above chart does not bode well for the US dollar but it encourages ones investment in the commodity of gold. Massive monetary printing from the Federal Reserve's of this world might get us out of this liquidity crisis in the short term. It will only cause more problems and prolong the underlying issue in the long-term.

This is the U.S money base and I don't think anyone could argue that it has been dangerously increased by Helicopter Ben and the other crooks who control (but probably not for to much longer) the world's capital flows.

Add on the reality that the U.S dollar will probably not be the reserve currency of the world in a few years time and you would say the U.S are royally screwed either way. China has come out and stated that they will buy resources, raw materials, like gold. Russia has said that they will convert to the Euro as their reserve currencies. I'm sure many countries will follow their lead and this would cause the greatest crisis to the United States. The massive public debt and trade deficit will not be able to be funded and the US bond market will make for an interesting picture.

I will put some analysis up on Gold when my chart service is working.

Wonder

 

[MRC & Co]

The massive public debt and trade deficit will not be able to be funded

Yes, from my understanding, a trade deficit must be funded by inflows of mainly speculative capital.

When you have both a deficit and outflows of speculative capital, you must have a huge currency depreciation to bring your exports back in line with your imports and create some kind of balance.

Add in a potentially NEGATIVE real interest rate, and the USD has some absolutely catastrophic consequences coming to it (potentially the fastest move coming right now to create the parabolic move to the downside) influenced further by the trend following nature of currencies.

I believe this is what Soros meant when he said in an interview not too long ago, that he KNOWS which way the USD is headed. I've never seen him so sure on a move before.

I'm licking my chops at the potential of this situation. A good idea IMO is to buy the ETF DXDDX and long gold, this ETF is a short based USD index of 250% leverage, which would hedge any move on gold you would loose to a relative rise in the AUD and still have you short 1.5x USD against a basket of currencies.

Good trading gold bugs, the time you have been waiting for seems to be drawing near.............

 

[Ageo]

Gold is useless because any gains are being wiped from the increase in AUD.

What the gold bugs in the physical market are expecting is a continue rise in gold and a sharp fall in the AUD.

An increase would restore some hope and optimism in the physical world as everyone has held off a little.

 

[chatty]

I hope AUD will not appreciate any further. My physical gold price hasn't increased at all.

 

[explod]

I hope AUD will not appreciate any further. My physical gold price hasn't increased at all.

Your gold is a least holding parity and the AU dollar is buying more (going up compared to the others falling) so you are wealthier. Try buying gold bars at the market price, you cant, there is a huge premium now and world shortage. Have a good read over this thread and you will be pleased as I am that we are holding physical.

On the gold price itself, a no brainer now, just a matter of how much longer it can be held down with jawboning.

cheers explod

 

[MRC & Co]

I hope AUD will not appreciate any further. My physical gold price hasn't increased at all.

You could buy UDN the ETF short USD index. Personally, if you were long gold, not insulating yourself against currency movements (considering gold rises when the USD falls), is a bit of a waste IMO.

 

[wonderrman]

Yes, from my understanding, a trade deficit must be funded by inflows of mainly speculative capital.

When you have both a deficit and outflows of speculative capital, you must have a huge currency depreciation to bring your exports back in line with your imports and create some kind of balance.

Add in a potentially NEGATIVE real interest rate, and the USD has some absolutely catastrophic consequences coming to it (potentially the fastest move coming right now to create the parabolic move to the downside) influenced further by the trend following nature of currencies.

Hello, yes a trade/fiscal deficit is funded by the ~$60 trillion bond market. When governments of this world stop buying US bonds, which make up approximately half of the market they will have hell to pay.

But it won't just be that, it is amazing that the US Treasury is buying US bonds so this in effect is money printing. Anyone who argues that inflation will not be a factor within the next bull market when Fed rates will need to be raised is quite silly. The fact that the populus can trust and believe these dishonest scum is bewildering.

I believe this is what Soros meant when he said in an interview not too long ago,

You wouldn't have a link would you?

wonder.