Victorian Fires

[Julia]

But where would they go? We're talking about evacuating, amongst other things, the entire city of Melbourne if we take that couple of hundred km literally.

I've already said the 200kms was an arbitrary distance. I've apologised for my ignorance in not being familiar with Victoria.

Aren't you making a rather unreasonable extrapolation to take hamlets like Marysville which seems to have been a tree change situation, with houses nestled in amongst mature eucalypts, and extend the idea to Melbourne with its concrete and steel inner city? Have whole cities ever burned, other than as a result of bombs?

Where would they go? I don't care. So there wouldn't be enough hotel beds if everyone left. (1) everyone would not leave. (2) if it meant saving your life wouldn't you be prepared to sleep in your car for a couple of nights?
Jeez, I'd get on a plane to NZ if necessary. Or Lord Howe Island. Or FNQ. No fires up there.

At least not whilst people have jobs etc to go to

Well they sure as hell won't be going to any jobs if they're dead!

Frankly I'm getting a bit sick of defending the fact that I said what I would do in such a situation is to leave at the first warning. This occurred a week before the firestorm.
I have not said everyone should have done this. It's up to individuals to make their own choices. Which they did. And which have clearly been less than productive in hundreds of instances.

 

[Smurf1976]

Smurf this sort of exaggeration is out of character for you.
Frankly I couldn't care less if there are beds available or not. We're talking about saving lives here. Wouldn't you sleep in your car for a couple of nights if it meant being alive at the end of it?

Jeez, I'd get on a plane to NZ if necessary!

What I'm thinking of is this.

I would have to check some figures, but if I take the option of leaving any time there's a fire within a couple of hundred km then I'm looking at spending a couple of months every year sleeping somewhere else. Fire isn't rare in Australia.

I flew from Adelaide to Melbourne early last November and remember thinking that much of Vic was ready to basicaly blow up the moment a fire started. It really does look that dry from the air, and that was 3 months before the fires.

Using the "better safe than sorry" approach, we would have evacuated just about every small town in Vic whenever it became even moderately warm or windy. I think the average person, their partners, children, pets and so on would be totally fed up with this by now. Back home for a day or two then evacuated again. I just don't think people would or even could accept living like that.

I'm just trying to keep this in perspective. Yes it's a terrible disaster to have lost so many lives but the odds of any one individual being killed by bushfire remain incredibly small. Even on the day of the disaster, and we seem to get one day like that about every two decades, most deaths in Australia weren't due to the fires. Roughly 21 million people and we live for about 80 years. That's over 700 deaths every single day. The odds of any one individual being killed by bushfire are very, very small.

 

[milothedog]

Too late at night too be trawling through this forum.....but have been on the computer to re check fire conditions...again...... We live in a fire prone area and fully accept the risks. Last Saturday morning we left our home, taking our family and pre packed fire boxes to a safer suburban location, and stayed away for the day.

On a quiet night tonight, with few incident reports, we attended a fire guard meeting at the local CFA depot. This was held to inform residents of our options and choices during the threat of fire (attended by approximately 300 people). During this session our local CFA were put on standby for a call out. Our CFA, as are others CFA units, are neighbours, friends, parents, valued members of our local community. 22 units attended the call, 5kms away. This threat has since been downgraded, but CFA units continue to patrol..... Fire is not something that can be easily controlled, contained, or abetted.

I guess my point is...to assume, that you have a week to decide if you should be leaving an area, is a nonsense....last Saturday there was little more than hours, for some less than that.... no fire is the same in formation....every fire is the same in effect. Have a thorough fire plan in place.

 

[Julia]

s.

I would have to check some figures, but if I take the option of leaving any time there's a fire within a couple of hundred km then I'm looking at spending a couple of months every year sleeping somewhere else.



Using the "better safe than sorry" approach, we would have evacuated just about every small town in Vic whenever it became even moderately warm or windy.

I've lived in Australia for 16 years and never before have I heard via Qld radio that the risk of fire in regional Victoria was extremeand that the conditions following sustained excessively high temperatures (high 40's), tinder dry ground and forecast high winds were unprecedented.
Not 'moderately warm and windy" at all.

And to suggest as an extrapolation of my suggesting I would have acted on such a warning and left well in advance of the fire would mean every small town in Victoria would have to be evacuated every week or so during the summer is simply silly.

I guess my point is...to assume, that you have a week to decide if you should be leaving an area, is a nonsense....last Saturday there was little more than hours,

Such warnings were broadcast in Qld a whole week before last Saturday's fire. I cannot believe that similar warning was not happening in Victoria!

 

[Prospector]

I disagree that there were only hours notice. On Friday night the warnings in Adelaide were dire; Saturday was going to be the worst day ever experienced for the possibility of a major fire. We were on extreme red alert. The worst warnings I have ever heard. Victoria would have been the same.

Individual hamlets were not identified early, but really, the whole area was at grave risk. From Thursday onwards and especially Saturday morning, the atmosphere was evil. Like Ash Wednesday.

Reading the Australian and the actions of the 'war centre' made it seem like they knew nothing was happening. Bizarre. And the wind change that seems to have takne them by surprise and caught many citizens out, to die - that was predicted on Friday!

If I lived in Melbourne I obviously would not have considered anything was necessary. If I lived near/within 30 kilometres of a wooded area, I would like to think that maybe today was the day I packed the family and went to Melbourne for the day. On the other hand, that would leave any animals I loved completely exposed to any trouble. Pack the dogs and cats with you but many had actual livestock. Taking the small animals would limit where you could go for the day. As Julia said, you wouldnt need a bed until the full extent of what was happening became apparent, and then you could have found refuge somewhere.

Well, I know what I would have done. We get tired of hearing people say in Adelaide, "why dont you live in the Hills, it is beautiful and so close to town'. Well, we know that, but for many years now we have made the decision not to lve their because every summer almost every warm day we have the same terrifying warning - Adelaide hills are on bushfire alert! So we dont live there!

 

[Calliope]

Frankly I'm getting a bit sick of defending the fact that I said what I would do in such a situation is to leave at the first warning. This occurred a week before the firestorm.
I have not said everyone should have done this. It's up to individuals to make their own choices. Which they did. And which have clearly been less than productive in hundreds of instances.

Julia,

In these days of highly charged emotions it is risky business to make a comment or ask a question that some people do not want to hear. To even suggest that some of the victims could possibly have made the wrong decision about whether to stay or flee, or to query why they were allowed to build houses in these potential firetraps in the first place, are heresies that will not be tolerated while emotions are riding so high.

Mr Rudd on the other is a master manipulator of people's emotions. He is using every cynical trick in his book to harness these emotions while they are still running high. Strangely enough the news media see nothing wrong with this, being master manipulators in their own right.

 

[Prospector]

Julia,

In these days of highly charged emotions it is risky business to make a comment or ask a question that some people do not want to hear. To even suggest that some of the victims could possibly have made the wrong decision about whether to stay or flee, or to query why they were allowed to build houses in these potential firetraps in the first place, are heresies that will not be tolerated while emotions are riding so high.

The Royal Commission is either going to be a doozy or a complete whitewash then, isn't it!

 

[Bushman]

Such warnings were broadcast in Qld a whole week before last Saturday's fire. I cannot believe that similar warning was not happening in Victoria!

They were - John Brumby went on to the airwaves and print media on the Friday to suggest to Vicotrians that the conditions on 7 February would be some of the worst bushfire conditions the state has ever seen and to stay off the roads unless you had to travel. My partner and I were due to go to the Great Ocean Road on the Saturday but stayed home (in suburban Melbourne) because of the dire warning.

The message was broadcast - now whether that go through to people living in rural communities who are not 'online' is another matter. Also the reality is that 'home' for people living in the bush is in the line of fire.

 

[kincella]

another royal commission is a waste of money....it will find the same problems that have existed since 1939...since the black friday fires....nothing has changed except now we have another 70 years of timber on the ground waiting to burn, and a 1000 fold increase in population in the middle of it....
the other things are already known....
how can 60 people in charge of the fires, sitting in an office in Melb....and not know about fires on the ground....????? A woman reported a fire was onto her property at 3.20 pm....other people waited 20 minutes to get through, to find out what to do....
any extra people to man the phones that day ????
and the phones cut out anyway.....what folly is this...
any fire spotters out there...or are they non existent now ???

 

[Prospector]

any fire spotters out there...or are they non existent now ???

We have a tower in Mount Lofty which replaced the one that burnt down in a bushfire. Looks over all the hills 'front and back'. The spotters wont work in it because they say it sways!

 

[sam76]

any fire spotters out there...or are they non existent now ???

http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/DSE/nrenfoe.nsf/FID/-383CB7428C7883824A2568E8000C799B?OpenDocument

 

[Prospector]

So how come the 'war room' didnt know that Kingslake confused had been totally wiped out and lives lost for quite some time then?

 

[kincella]

warnings broadcast probably every hour on bbc/abc radio since 1.02.09 a full week...plus all the media, and internet coverage...for the 44 degree heat and high winds for the Sat 7th....
it would have been hard to escape the warnings...the only way would have been...never listen to the radio or read any news, or listen to weather reports.....we were all experiencing the heat day by day....and watching weather reports to see if they were changing....for a cool change etc...

and for the QLDers...or any other state...all are exposed and it can happen to you
an arsonists that was eventualy caught and then released...travelled from Albury on the nsw/vic border to Sydney...when he heard similar predictions one year...and to brisbane another year...this is what arsonists prefer....a hot day and very high winds...just perfect for mass damage...

 

[kincella]

sam, with all those DSE towers, how come they missed the fires...or no one in the tower, like the other poster said ?

 

[daisy]

Kincella,
I had not comprehended the true sociopathic nature of arson until my dinner party conversation last night. Again, in my ignorance, I had not thought deeply about this and had kind of figured it was kids up to no good with no idea of the consequences of what they were doing. Bad enough, but now that it has been spelt out for me, absolutely horrifying.
So it seems like between the unacceptably high fuel load, the weather conditions and then a bunch of sociopaths having the perfect conditions to 'come out and play' these fires were inevitable. But with no way of knowing where exactly.
The tension in the week leading up to this must have been unbearable.

 

[sam76]

sam, with all those DSE towers, how come they missed the fires...or no one in the tower, like the other poster said ?

sorry?

you need to tell me why you think the spotters "missed" the fires.

I have gone to jobs that we couldn't see the column of smoke from the street that was spotted by a tower operator kilometres away.

I think people are forgetting that fires start anywhere.

Where was my warning?
Why didn't the tower operartor see something?

What happens if a fire starts on the edge of town?
You don't get a warning.

Complacency towards fire is going to become a big issue in this commission imho

 

[brty]

There is an appalling lack of understanding going on in this thread.

Much of the outer Melbourne (and some inner) suburbs were in a lot of danger last Saturday because of the dry conditions in suburban gardens, low humidity and high winds.

TFB days (Total Fire Ban) always come with the warnings to implement fire plans or leave early. There are 4-10 of these each year. There is no gradation of TFB days. Over the last 25 years, on 99% of TFB days and for 99% of people, to evacuate/ implement fire plans when warned was a waste of time.

There are many examples/times when the warnings have gone out that "the conditions are as bad as Ash Wednesday" yet only a few small fires occurred.

Many people just thought it another example of the boy who cried 'wolf' with the warnings, sat inside their airconditioned houses, without bothering to look at what was happening around them outside, along with completely inadequate fire plans.

I live in a fire prone area. I have been a firefighter in the CFA for 20 years. I had sprinklers going around our house and wetting the garden from 11 o'clock in the morning. There was no sign of fire when I started. We did not have a fire here.

brty

 

[Bushman]

There is an appalling lack of understanding going on in this thread.

Much of the outer Melbourne (and some inner) suburbs were in a lot of danger last Saturday because of the dry conditions in suburban gardens, low humidity and high winds.

TFB days (Total Fire Ban) always come with the warnings to implement fire plans or leave early. There are 4-10 of these each year. There is no gradation of TFB days. Over the last 25 years, on 99% of TFB days and for 99% of people, to evacuate/ implement fire plans when warned was a waste of time.

There are many examples/times when the warnings have gone out that "the conditions are as bad as Ash Wednesday" yet only a few small fires occurred.

Many people just thought it another example of the boy who cried 'wolf' with the warnings, sat inside their airconditioned houses, without bothering to look at what was happening around them outside, along with completely inadequate fire plans.

I live in a fire prone area. I have been a firefighter in the CFA for 20 years. I had sprinklers going around our house and wetting the garden from 11 o'clock in the morning. There was no sign of fire when I started. We did not have a fire here.

brty

Thought provoking as always Mr Brty.

Without a doubt much of north-eastern suburban Melbourne was under threat on Saturday. Built-up areas like Eltham, Warrandyte, Wonga Park, Whittlesea, Dandenong, Belgrave, Hurstbridge, Mount Waverley, Croydon, Ringwood etc are all within 20km of the front and are heavily-forrested suburban areas. Even where I live, in Fairfield, the push of late has been for native-gardens; also we have Studley Park within 1 km from our house and its is filled with tinder dry native vegetation.

The scary thing is that if that incredible dry wind kept blowing for even another day then these suburbs, filled with thousands of homes, could well have been burnt out as well. No-one would have been prepared; we are city-slickers after all and detached from our natural environment.

This fire burnt-out large tracts of Bendigo and Narre Warren after all. Scary stuff! Bring on the Royal Commission and lets make sure they don't pull any punches.

 

[kincella]

to the firefighters out there...article in sat paper, about how the experts in the melb office...were not aware of any fires until after 7,00pm or later that night....
in the meantime the firefighters were probably out there chasing fires...and people fighting for their lives...
my theme is why headquarters in the docklands, with all the specialists sitting inside..were unaware of this ?????
oh and tell me about those sitting inside in airconditioned comfort ???
I live in the city...I check every 15 mins or so...smell the air, look around

brother and daughter in albury...that arsonist was back again in 2005, I was visiting albury... waiting for the usual high wind new years day fires...and the fires were lit there without fail every year....and sure enough about 1.00pm he was at it again....

the family were in different houses inside in the air....no checks etc....I had to go and tell both of them, the fire was 1 klm away...smoke everywhere...
and fire plan...there is none...for them....they believed until now...a fire truck would turn up and warn them...or they would hear a siren.....

I lived up there, grew up there....could not get out fast enough...sick of the emergency plans every summer...with 5 horses, 3 dogs and a cat to keep close by for my emergency exit....horses were across the road, only one tree,,but huge wide open spaces for miles....the wind whipped through there faster...all my trees grew bent over from the wind....the plan was to lead the horses about 200 yards..down to a lane..that ran down to the river, the lane followed the river for about 3 klms...
had the horses yarded on those days, to catch them quickly...and the float ready...half the time you could not see 10 yards in front...the smoke was so thick...had no idea if there was a fire there or not...that went on for weeks at a time
been in melb for 20 years now...no horses any more...just the one dog...plan now to run down to the river 500 yards away...alexander avenue...and hang around the bike track that runs beside the river....
oh and memo to self...buy a woollen blanket

 

[Prospector]

to the firefighters out there...article in sat paper, about how the experts in the melb office...were not aware of any fires until after 7,00pm or later that night....
in the meantime the firefighters were probably out there chasing fires...and people fighting for their lives...
my theme is why headquarters in the docklands, with all the specialists sitting inside..were unaware of this ?????

The lack of communication between the troops and 'war room' was really bad. How can they be strategic when they don't know what is happening on location? Why weren't the Troops communicating with head office. They don't need to be on site, they can have airconditioned offices, but they DO NEED TO COMMUNICATE with each other! Hopefully this is one thing the Royal Commission might flush out.