Victorian Fires

[kincella]

Bushman...the idea of underground bunkers is to avoid the radiant heat.....are you saying people underground would still be exposed to it....
or did people just have the containers on top of the ground ???

 

[sam76]

This is a ridiculous statement. There are 180 people dead. Clearly these plans have been 100% proven to NOT WORK.


In North Queensland when there is a cyclone off the coast, even if it is not an immediate threat, there are regular short television and radio broadcasts giving location, speed, direction and status - these broadcasts interrupt the running program, last for about a minute and are accompanied by a loud siren sound. They are extremely effective and if ever there is a cyclone about it would be extremely difficult not to know. I'm not sure of the exact intervals, but as a cyclone becomes a threat to an area they shorten - e.g. it might be once every couple of hours if the cyclone is a day or two away, down to every 30 minutes if the cyclone is presenting an immediate threat.

The loud siren sound accompanying the warning is a very effective psychological tool to instill genuine alarm and make the listener alert to possible threat - also everybody in the region knows that if they want to know where the cyclone is there will be an update on its exact position, speed and direction at regular intervals. This allows them to make their own decisions on whether it is safer to seek shelter at the location they are at or whether they realistically have time to attempt to move to a safer place.

Were these sorts of warnings in place in Victoria?

We don't even know how these people died!!!

Many I bet would be fleeing last minute or defending an ill prepared home.

How many people survived because of the plans????????

Just last night the Deputy Chief Officer was saying that these plans are still the best we have.

All the work emails i receive are stating the same.

Science has proven it and years of practice backs it up.

I stand by my statement.

 

[Bushman]

Bushman...the idea of underground bunkers is to avoid the radiant heat.....are you saying people underground would still be exposed to it....
or did people just have the containers on top of the ground ???

I believe the vacuum sucks the air out of the bunkers as the fire front passes over them, depriving its inhabitants of air; hence they suffocate. The radiant heat is not the problem.

They were discussing it on 774 3LO a few days ago.

 

[cuttlefish]

So are you saying that it's a given or a fait accompli, that people will have to build underground bunkers beneath their properties in Victoria CF? And if so would you say because of the lack of precipitation within the old-growth forest areas of Victoria or because it's a naturally occuring event that people should prepare and protect themselves for?

http://www.melbournewater.com.au/content/water/water_storages/water_storages.asp?bhcp=1

Its a naturally occurring event - they will happen - what upsets me about the current loss of lives is that Ash Wednesday where 75 people were killed doesn't seem that long ago to me. If someone decides to make the bush their lifelong home, it is highly likely they will experience the threat of a serious bushfire at some stage in their time there.

They've had bunkers before (in the Dandenongs) and the problem was that people suffocated in them due to the vacuum that precedes the fire. If you can secure the air supply, then it would be an effective measure against the radiant heat.

Cheers for the info. So they need to try to address the oxygen supply issue for the duration of time that the firestorm front passes over (which I'm assuming is a relatively short period of time). A fully sealed bunker that was closed just before the vacuum effect hit would have oxygen to last a reasonable period of time I would assume - but there are numerous approaches that could be considered to deal with the oxygen issue.

They would needed to have evacuated most of country Victoria

Evacuation, particularly at a late hour, does sound impractical so some sort of measure for surviving in-place seems like the better area to focus on.

 

[Calliope]

As for the CFA, their manual has not caught up with a warmer, drier Victoria. I am not interested in this insidious 'climate change' debate; the reality is that Victoria is experiencing drier summers and a lack of rainfall and, in these conditions, the fuel load of the fire means that some fires will be 'unsurvivable' no matter what training local inhabitants have.

If similar climactic conditions that preceded the Victorian fires were to occur in SE Qld (and nothing can be ruled out) the devastation in Brisbane's so called leafy suburbs would be horrendous. Thousands of homes are hardly visible from the air. Many back yards and gardens are indistinguishable from the surrounding bush.

And more and more retirees are opting for a "tree change" rather than a "sea change."

 

[cuttlefish]

We don't even know how these people died!!!

Many I bet would be fleeing last minute or defending an ill prepared home.

How many people survived because of the plans????????

Just last night the Deputy Chief Officer was saying that these plans are still the best we have.

All the work emails i receive are stating the same.

Science has proven it and years of practice backs it up.

I stand by my statement.

181 deaths <> success.

25 years ago, Ash Wednesday, 75 deaths.
This time 180+ deaths.

No changes = another tragedy some time in the next 25 years.

 

[noirua]

If similar climactic conditions that preceded the Victorian fires were to occur in SE Qld (and nothing can be ruled out) the devastation in Brisbane's so called leafy suburbs would be horrendous. Thousands of homes are hardly visible from the air. Many back yards and gardens are indistinguishable from the surrounding bush.

And more and more retirees are opting for a "tree change" rather than a "sea change."

The cost of providing wide fire breaks, maintaining them and repositioning houses would be enormous. At least there is a chance in parts of Victoria to do this. Where will the fire be next time though?

 

[sam76]

181 deaths <> success.

25 years ago, Ash Wednesday, 75 deaths.
This time 180+ deaths.

No changes = another tragedy some time in the next 25 years.

Of course there will be changes!

Read my previous posts - The CFA will adapt if it finds a better way to protect the community.

My beef is you said the current plans failed 100%

WHICH IS WRONG.

 

[brty]

Hi,

Many points to consider.

1. All types of restrictions on new property will not help tens of thousands of houses that still exist in fire prone areas, including some outer suburbs of Melbourne that are a disaster waiting to happen.

2. Instead of fire bunkers, we all need to have underground cellars .

3. Perhaps bushfire prevention spending should be tax deductable, it will get people to actually do something.

4. Green councils and environment officers need their butts kicked over what is appropriate vegetation to plant around houses. Native gardens are great, until they burn.

5. Water. Victoria needs it for farms and gardens. Something like the Bowring project is needed possibly on a larger scale (Say 20,000 GL instead of his 4,000).
http://www.nalwt.gov.au/files/no-14-bowring.pdf

6. Fire fighter pumps and adequate storage of water, plus systems to put a fog over houses, similar to how firefighters protect themselves in a fireover in a truck. (I am a CFA volunteer and live in the bush)

7. Less, yes less, TFB days and days of telling people to implement their fire plans. Ever heard of the story of the boy who cried Wolf??

brty

 

[brty]

Sam,

Current plans did not fail 100%. Some peoples plans worked, some did not have adequate plans. In some instances the plans failed.

There are many stories of people who got out of their houses after the fire had passed, to see the house destroyed behind them. They are complaining that the plans failed, yet staying in the house until it was unbearable was probably what saved them. Yes I acknowledge that it did not work all the time, but it was not 100% wrong.

brty

 

[GumbyLearner]

Of course there will be changes!

Read my previous posts - The CFA will adapt if it finds a better way to protect the community.

My beef is you said the current plans failed 100%

WHICH IS WRONG.

I have to agree.

It is simply defeatist to start talking about people living in home made caves. If this were the case then land management becomes a secondary issue.

As someone who has lived in the Belgrave area, almost wiped out in Ash Wednesday 1983, all I can say is the vast majority of the community are quite conscious of the threat of bush fire.

The local council do a regular collection in the Spring of scrub, fallen branches and foilage.

I find it quite alarmist that people now think that hunkering down in underground shelters is the only solution. There are plenty of preventative things that can be done at both a local (community education) and state level (stop logging of forests nearby to State water suppply) that can help to both green and fireproof areas to potential bush fires.

Prevention is the key via responsible participation within the community, not retreat into underground bunkers.

Most of the area has been drought ravaged for years. And why is that???
Because a bunch of people decided to cling onto trees? Because certain companies were given contracts to NOT log nextdoor to major Victorian water catchments? Because the CFA didn't warn people of the impending danger?

Wrong on all counts.

The problem is far more complex and if Brumby & Co are going to have an enquiry they better address the real issues, rather than just propose fallout shelters. These areas are rich in wildlife and are inhabited by people. To assume that nothing can be done to turn around Victoria's chronic water shortage problems is also assuming NO vision of sustaining these areas so they don't turn into desolate dust-bowls for generations to come.



http://weather.theage.com.au/local.jsp?lt=aploc&lc=5594&t=f

 

[cuttlefish]

Of course there will be changes!

Read my previous posts - The CFA will adapt if it finds a better way to protect the community.

My beef is you said the current plans failed 100%

WHICH IS WRONG.

By 'plans' I'm not talking about the advice given to individuals by the CFA, I'm talking about the way that the State responds to a bushfire crisis.

Clearly the current mechanisms that have been implemented both prior to and during the crisis have been shown not to be succesful in preventing a large loss of lives.

So I stand by my statement:

Clearly these plans have been 100% proven to NOT WORK.

Whatever the State government has been doing for the past 25 years since Ash Wednesday in 1983 and whatever plans were actioned just prior to and during this crisis failed to prevent a repeat occurrence.

Thus it has clearly not worked and there is 100% evidence of this, because we have had a repeat and actually a far worse outcome.

 

[MrBurns]

There has to be more clearing, environmental groups that opposed clearing can go bury the dead from this disaster.

I think bunkers are a good idea OR safe areas maintained by the Councils and paid for by a levy on rates, when people see the levy they will be reminded annually that these areas are being maintained for emergencies.(otherwise they'll just forget they're there)

Early evacuation in extreme conditions, it was obvious what was going to happen on Saturday when the forecast came out on Friday.

Why non of this was put in place after ash wednesday and indeed after 1939 is a mystery.

Early evacuation in extreme conditions, it was obvious what was going to happen on Saturday when the forecast came out on Friday.

Just to clarify I mean strong warnings to leave not mandatory evacuation, but warnings in the strongest language so there is no misunderstanding that by staying they may be in danger of losing their lives.

 

[GumbyLearner]

There has to be more clearing, environmental groups that opposed clearing can go bury the dead from this disaster.

Do you think there needs to be more clearing next door to all the major water catchments in Victoria, Mr Burns?

 

[MrBurns]

Do you think there needs to be more clearing next door to all the major water catchments in Victoria, Mr Burns?

I'm not sure why you would need that ? to get access to water ? I'm not with you there.

 

[sam76]

Sam,

Current plans did not fail 100%. Some peoples plans worked, some did not have adequate plans. In some instances the plans failed.

There are many stories of people who got out of their houses after the fire had passed, to see the house destroyed behind them. They are complaining that the plans failed, yet staying in the house until it was unbearable was probably what saved them. Yes I acknowledge that it did not work all the time, but it was not 100% wrong.

brty

I can't work out if you are agreeing with me or think that i made the original statement.

 

[sam76]

By 'plans' I'm not talking about the advice given to individuals by the CFA, I'm talking about the way that the State responds to a bushfire crisis.

Clearly the current mechanisms that have been implemented both prior to and during the crisis have been shown not to be succesful in preventing a large loss of lives.

So I stand by my statement:

Whatever the State government has been doing for the past 25 years since Ash Wednesday in 1983 and whatever plans were actioned just prior to and during this crisis failed to prevent a repeat occurrence.

Thus it has clearly not worked and there is 100% evidence of this, because we have had a repeat and actually a far worse outcome.

You quoted me stating it was a ridiculous statement.

I was talking about CFA bushfire plans and never mentioned The Government

so I guess you've made a misstatement on my original post.

 

[GumbyLearner]

I'm not sure why you would need that ? to get access to water ? I'm not with you there.

Well the reason that dams are built is so communities have access to fresh water. In order for those dams to both catch and store that water they require trees in order for the natural cycle of precipitation to occur.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precipitation_(meteorology)

I just remember it from Form 1 science in High School back in the mid-80's.
Similar to the diagram below I found on wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Water_cycle.png

So if we log around the catchments then science states that less rainfall will occur. Melbourne has had the lowest rainfall and also the lowest water storage on record. Now either this is a once in a century event or de-sal plants will be built in Victoria which will "supposedly" solve the problem. I think they are planning one right now down near Leongatha. FYI

If your still not clear on what I'm talking about, this website has some great info about clearfell logging near Victorian water-catchments.

http://www.vicrainforest.org/Melbwater.php

 

[cuttlefish]

Well I was talking about CFA bushfire plans and never mentioned The Government

so I guess you've made a misstatement on my original post.

The CFA is "The Government" and according to their website their goals are:

Goal 1 - Reduce the Impact of Fire and Emergencies in Victoria
Goal 2 - Build and Strengthen Self Reliant, Resilient Communities
Goal 3 - Deliver Quality Services
Goal 4 - Improve the Safety and Capability of CFA
Goal 5 - Effective and Practical Governance System

 

[brty]

Apologies Sam,

I think I am agreeing with you, it was Cuttlefish that seems to have made that statement, and you were quoting him.

brty