XAO Technical Analysis

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

You didn't notice there was a little bit more news out there last night than just the oil price?

Really????

thansks for that

 

[jaithomson]

Re: XAO Analysis

A question for those with (much) more knowledge.

Just an observation ( have been doing some research on E/W in past days).

If Im counting correctly aren't we due for another leg down at some stage soon?:nuts:

Yes, Monday \ Tuesday is Leg Down Day.

 

[lioness]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yes, Monday \ Tuesday is Leg Down Day.

Monday/Tuseday down, what planet are you from - URANUS?

 

[nomore4s]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yes, Monday \ Tuesday is Leg Down Day.

Monday/Tuseday down, what planet are you from - URANUS?

lol, I hope you don't have that short still open jaithomson because I doubt very much that Monday will be in the red and I woud be surprised if Tuesday is a down day.

 

[jaithomson]

Re: XAO Analysis

ok smarty pants - when are we due for a leg down then..?

 

[Nyden]

Re: XAO Analysis

ok smarty pants - when are we due for a leg down then..?

We might not be ... ? We might be though ... ?


Personally I might just take up a long position on Monday; I really am satisfied with what I'm seeing in the media. Incredibly bearish - a news brief on nearly every commercial break about the market ... Heck, I think I saw a commercial on Channel 7 for special hosted by that Kosh (spelling?) character about preserving capital throughout all this!

 

[IFocus]

Re: XAO Analysis

Daily chart of XAO shows down trend still intact

Volume suggests a bounce of some sort

Action in the US might suggest an easing of risk for the financial system

Suggest over all conditions remain the same


.

 

[Struzball]

Re: XAO Analysis

Does anybody believe these companies which are rescued with $1Trillion (I heard from a news update) worth of bailouts, are actually suddenly worth $1Trillion more?
If they need $1T to 'recover', their business models are pretty well useless in which case their shares should be worthless.

After all, aren't they just transferring their debt from banks to the fed?
In which case it makes an even scarier scenario when rather than banks collapsing due to sub-prime/prime mortgages, it's the entire US government!

I don't think I would be going long for the long term at the moment at all. But definitely a good time to earn a quick buck on the optimism of idiots over the next few days.

I bet banning shorting in the short term will be great, but horrendous for the long term. However that's another thread.

 

[MrBurns]

Re: XAO Analysis

The $1T is just the debt and yes, the US taxpayer is buying the debt ridden assets in some hope of selling them again in some magical future time probably in the Twiight Zone.

While people starve in the ghettos the pricks who caused this have their debt taken off their hands thanks to the taxpayer.

 

[Julia]

Re: XAO Analysis

lol, some problems still exist?

How has anything changed? What problems did they actually fix?
Nothing, just applied more bandaid fixes to make it look like they are doing something.

We could all end up paying the price for these shortsighted attempts to fix things imo.

It seems too obvious to even be worth the comment, but if all this debt just gets absorbed by the taxpayer (which is what seems to be being proposed) what's to say the people who caused this mess won't just go and do it all again? Given the parlous state of the US economy, they're hardly likely to raise interest rates, so isn't that environment ripe for a repeat performance in the knowledge that whatever debacle you oversee, Uncle Sam will just put it right for you?
Maybe I'm not correctly understanding the whole situation, and am happy to be corrected.

Meantime, here is Colin Twiggs' view of the recent bounce:

The press is full of headlines about stocks soaring and massive rallies. I cannot imagine too many fund managers rushing out to buy stocks in the middle of a market cave-in. That is how you lose your job. The current rally is not driven by new investors rushing in to snap up bargains. The SEC and UK financial regulators have both banned short selling of financial shares, forcing shorts to cover their open positions ”” causing a huge upward spike in financial stocks like Morgan Stanley [MS] and Goldman Sachs [GS].

We are undergoing another bear market rally. I often equate these to a drowning man's relief at finding a life-raft ”” before the realization dawns on him that he is still lost in the middle of the Pacific ocean without food or water.

 

[jaithomson]

Re: XAO Analysis

Exactly... Bear it is..!

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hey whiskers I'm hopping you have some of your usually after the fact analysis on oil vs Equity markets.

A couple of weeks ago you main theme was high oil was killing the markets. Last night oil jumped 5% but equity markets around the world had their biggest jump in 20 odd years. Surely if oil high oil is the driver of the markets woes, like you were stating a little while ago, I wouldn't be looking at a screen of green.

You didn't notice there was a little bit more news out there last night than just the oil price?

Ditto.

lol, some problems still exist?

How has anything changed? What problems did they actually fix?
Nothing, just applied more bandaid fixes to make it look like they are doing something.

We could all end up paying the price for these shortsighted attempts to fix things imo.

It seems too obvious to even be worth the comment, but if all this debt just gets absorbed by the taxpayer (which is what seems to be being proposed) what's to say the people who caused this mess won't just go and do it all again? Given the parlous state of the US economy, they're hardly likely to raise interest rates, so isn't that environment ripe for a repeat performance in the knowledge that whatever debacle you oversee, Uncle Sam will just put it right for you?
Maybe I'm not correctly understanding the whole situation, and am happy to be corrected.

Meantime, here is Colin Twiggs' view of the recent bounce:

Good to see you in this thread Julia.

The first thing I would say about Twiggs view is that it is fairly heavily based on his 'Twiggs Money Flow' chart. Money flow is OK, but when the playing field is a bit corrupted and the rules get changed through the game, money flow may be more a measure of manipulation and panic than 'normal' market dynamics.

Also in regard to nomore4s question, the main thing that has changed is that this situation will not repeat, because of the regulatory changes made and coming regarding levels of leverage, preditory selling, market regulation and disclosure etc.

There are also numerous court cases in progress that will inevitably set precedents where people thought the law didn't apply and others that will cause new laws to be enacted.

As to what has actually been fixed... hard to know for sure, if anything... but the point I keep making is the market is more psycholigical than financial... ie to keep your 'moral' analysis seperate from your objective assessement of what is likely to happen if you want to be on the right side of the market in a timely fashion.

One thing that all this intervention has done is cut any market manipulation off at the knees, at least for now. Some argue that the governments are manipulating the market. No doubt about that, but you'd have to be a fool to abuse the system, abuse the gov and then kick sand in their face as some operators are alleged to be doing, cos simply the gov is the umpire and I haven't heard any political party outright condeming this action. So, it surely is suicide to go against the umpire and agrivate him/her on the playing field.

No doubt the rational of the intervention is to allow the mess to unwind more slowly and orderly, rather than just letting it crash into a mangled mess where there is no guarantee that Ma and Pa investers won't get hurt anyway, such as by banks facing mass depositor withdrawls and closing shop... after the chief execs have already fled with their fat pay packets and sold their shares.

From a moral perspective, I would think there is a better chance of coming to a softer landing with less damage to the general public and better chance of scrutinizing the market and the key players than letting the market go on unchecked.

The bottom line is, what's to stop the imoral, corrupt and market manipulators from further exploiting the system to further feather their own nest at the expense of the general public if it was just left to go on unchecked.

 

[Kauri]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well what do you know....
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

One thing that all this intervention has done is cut any market manipulation off at the knees, at least for now. Some argue that the governments are manipulating the market. No doubt about that, but you'd have to be a fool to abuse the system, abuse the gov and then kick sand in their face as some operators are alleged to be doing, cos simply the gov is the umpire and I haven't heard any political party outright condeming this action. So, it surely is suicide to go against the umpire and agrivate him/her on the playing field.

No doubt the rational of the intervention is to allow the mess to unwind more slowly and orderly, rather than just letting it crash into a mangled mess where there is no guarantee that Ma and Pa investers won't get hurt anyway, such as by banks facing mass depositor withdrawls and closing shop... after the chief execs have already fled with their fat pay packets and sold their shares.

From a moral perspective, I would think there is a better chance of coming to a softer landing with less damage to the general public and better chance of scrutinizing the market and the key players than letting the market go on unchecked.

The bottom line is, what's to stop the imoral, corrupt and market manipulators from further exploiting the system to further feather their own nest at the expense of the general public if it was just left to go on unchecked.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

lol, I hope you don't have that short still open jaithomson because I doubt very much that Monday will be in the red and I woud be surprised if Tuesday is a down day.

It appears that the majority now posting on this thread are doing little in analysis and plenty in emotion.

I agree that very soon the market will slow dramatically and turn lower again.

If people really think that bankrupt governments throwing money at a bankrupt monetary system,is going to secure you a longterm bull market---then your from URANUS.

Unfortunately this thread has become an "Hotcopper" fiasco.
Like others before me I'll leave you all to it.

 

[MrBurns]

Re: XAO Analysis

The US SAYS it will do this and that but lets see what they actually come up with, words are easy the reality will be almost impossible to do with any effect other than smoke and mirrors.

The market will realise this and go into reverse once again but there will be a lot of money made in the very short term, but not by me , that sort of risk level isn't for me.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Ditto.

Thanks. so you agree it was about credit markets not oil. Good we finally agree and you have finally admitted that your opinion was wong.

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

I agree that very soon the market will slow dramatically and turn lower again.

If people really think that bankrupt governments throwing money at a bankrupt monetary system,is going to secure you a longterm bull market---then your from URANUS.

Indeed. It is almost surreal to watch the media report what is going on. Paulson and Bernanke are being portrayed as the saviours of the world. Rewind around 12 months ago and their position was that - the US financial system is fundamentally sound (that is actually still their view), that losses for financial companies would be limited to around $100 billion, that problems in the housing market would be contained to a small area called subprime, and that it would not have spillover effects to the broader economy.

Now we have over $500 billion in losses for financial companies, a bill now in motion to use $700 billion to buy bad assets from banks, $85 billion for AIG, a guarantee from the fed of $30billion for Bear Stearns nasty liabilities and a couple of hundred billion to back Freddie and Fannie.

So these guys that had no idea what was happening are now going to save the day, with one of their first masterstrokes to intiate a witch-hunt on short sellers.

This could be the mother of all bear market rallies, but like all that have come before in this bear market, it is destined to fail and the market will ultimately proceed to new lows once reality resasserts itself IMO.

 

[jet328]

Re: XAO Analysis

It appears that the majority now posting on this thread are doing little in analysis and plenty in emotion.

I agree that very soon the market will slow dramatically and turn lower again.

If people really think that bankrupt governments throwing money at a bankrupt monetary system,is going to secure you a longterm bull market---then your from URANUS.

Completely agree tech

Just look at what US analysts are forecasting
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS
They are predicting operating earnings to GROW 50% in the next 12 months! 50%! There is just no way this is possible in the next 12 months.
Currently they are trading on a PE of ~ 20 & this is meant to be the bottom. Where is the fear or panic? When has a bear market ended & a bull market started ever on a PE of 20?

Analysts are usually late to the party & I don't think this time will be any different.

 

[Porper]

Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks. so you agree it was about credit markets not oil. Good we finally agree and you have finally admitted that your opinion was wong.

You have to be joking T.H.Some never admit they are wrong.

Always an answer and excuse.

I agree with Tech/A not much XAO analysis going on.Be back in a few weeks to see where we are heading.