XAO Technical Analysis

[IFocus]

Re: XAO Analysis

If people really think that bankrupt governments throwing money at a bankrupt monetary system,is going to secure you a longterm bull market---then your from URANUS.

Is that anything like a black hole

 

[bankit]

Re: XAO Analysis

I agree with Tech/A not much XAO analysis going on.

I have to agree with both of you on lack of Analysis. I would post more but it seems there are a couple of members who just insist on point scoring against other members. It is obviously an ego thing and it does destroy threads because the genuine posters stop posting because of the childish attitude or is it called "Cyber bashing"

If someone wants to start up a new thread on the XAO then I will post more.

I feel there are some very competent members out there, so lets try again.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

This could be the mother of all bear market rallies, but like all that have come before in this bear market, it is destined to fail and the market will ultimately proceed to new lows once reality resasserts itself IMO.

You mean like the last one from '02 to '07 which interrupted the last financial Armageddon?

XAO analysis, based on US market activity late last week, XAO up on Monday, 5000 points forming resistance.

 

[CamKawa]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well my XAO analysis is that it may skyrocket on Monday. All forms of short selling on all stocks have been banned from the ASX effective Monday.

Source: http://www.asic.gov.au/ASIC/asic.nsf/byHeadline/08-205%20Covered%20short%20selling%20not%20permitted?opendocument

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well my XAO analysis is that it may skyrocket on Monday. All forms of short selling on all stocks have been banned from the ASX effective Monday.

Source: http://www.asic.gov.au/ASIC/asic.nsf/byHeadline/08-205%20Covered%20short%20selling%20not%20permitted?opendocument

So I read that including the instrument doc at the bottom of the page. It doesn't make it clear if people with open shorts are required to close them. It seems to just indicate that no new shorts are allowed - with a few restricted exceptions.

 

[white_goodman]

Re: XAO Analysis

So I read that including the instrument doc at the bottom of the page. It doesn't make it clear if people with open shorts are required to close them. It seems to just indicate that no new shorts are allowed - with a few restricted exceptions.

if youve got an open short your pretty much rooted so you will probably close it anyways

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

The $1T is just the debt and yes, the US taxpayer is buying the debt ridden assets in some hope of selling them again in some magical future time probably in the Twiight Zone.

From an Aus, and I suppose most countries perspective, isn't it better to contain all this dubious debt on the US balance sheet where it came from, rather than continuing to let it spew out all over the world?

While people starve in the ghettos the pricks who caused this have their debt taken off their hands thanks to the taxpayer.

I think there is some element of truth there, but you have to remember there is also a huge amount of litigation pending in the US so we just don't know yet who will get away with what.

If you could eloberate a bit wayne, I'll see if I can help you.

Thanks. so you agree it was about credit markets not oil. Good we finally agree and you have finally admitted that your opinion was wong.

As I have said often TH, you need to be able to get some context and proportion.

My analysis was that the oil bubble was about to burst, which it did and the trend will continue to fall down to around 80, maybe a bit lower.

You should know that market trends don't go in a straight line. There are always a serious of up's and down's with bigger up's in a bull market and bigger downs in a bear market.

Really TH a $5 or so move in oil recently is hardly here nor there, but you will recall me saying that it may fall below 100 for awhile before correcting higher over 100 for awhile before continuing to fall again.

The context of the oil trend continuing to fall is that world wide (hyper)inflation goes off the radar and the economy improves proportionally.

In the context of the Aus market, high oil was starting to really hurt our economy, particularly our significant export mining and agricultural industries.

The oil trend won't change significantly because of the other foreseeable news that came in recent days.

Is that anything like a black hole

Lol... thats funny, IFocus... not that I totally agree with your or tech/a's view, but I'll pay a bit of good humour where it's due.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Lol... thats funny, IFocus... not that I totally agree with your or tech/a's view, but I'll pay a bit of good humour where it's due.

Thank God for that!!

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

You mean like the last one from '02 to '07 which interrupted the last financial Armageddon?

XAO analysis, based on US market activity late last week, XAO up on Monday, 5000 points forming resistance.

I don't remember any financial armageddon in 02. Can't recall the US treasury backing $1 trillion worth of mortgage assets....ever.

btw weren't you the guy who didn't even think we'd entered a bear market as late as early January?

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: XAO Analysis

btw weren't you the guy who didn't even think we'd entered a bear market as late as early January?

Along with motorway it was meant to be a giant trading range.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Along with motorway it was meant to be a giant trading range.

Over the longterm thats what it will be.
I dont think we will see 6880 taken out for many years--5-7.
Dont know where the bottom will be but 4100 to 4300 is the next stop--from my analysis.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: XAO Analysis

Over the longterm thats what it will be.
I dont think we will see 6880 taken out for many years--5-7.
Dont know where the bottom will be but 4100 to 4300 is the next stop--from my analysis.

From memory, 4300 was the next level down after 4700, and 3700-3800 after that, on my charts.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hey isn't this going to be funny. The rally will be because shorts are no longer able to "manipulate" the market with their 1% of market cap. And the punters will still be saying that this volume was the shorts covering

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

XAO as of tonight Weekly Chart.

 

[Sunder]

Re: XAO Analysis

Does anyone know how this affects holding negative CFDs?

Since it's a derivative, I presume it's exempt from the short selling ban?

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

I don't remember any financial armageddon in 02. Can't recall the US treasury backing $1 trillion worth of mortgage assets....ever.

Touche dhukka. For about the last 20 years experts have been predicting that with every downturn this one would be the big one. We'll find out eventually if it really is different this time.

Absolute numbers mean little BTW...you know how it is, inflation and all.

btw weren't you the guy who didn't even think we'd entered a bear market as late as early January?

If I went back and looked at that chart I'd come to the same technical conclusion. If you want to say "I told you so", you can have that call, it hasn't helped your portfolio.

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

Touche dhukka. For about the last 20 years experts have been predicting that with every downturn this one would be the big one. We'll find out eventually if it really is different this time.

Absolute numbers mean little BTW...you know how it is, inflation and all.

Have they? Good for them, not sure what the relevance of this statement is. Anyway to date, this bear market has already equaled the biggest in terms of peak to trough declines in the last 20 years. It's always at least a little different isn't it? As you said we'll find out in due course exactly how different.

If I went back and looked at that chart I'd come to the same technical conclusion. If you want to say "I told you so", you can have that call, it hasn't helped your portfolio.

Then maybe it's time to stop looking at charts? My aim is to outperform the market over the full cycle. My measley portfolio is down less than half the current market decline. I'm happy with that result.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

Have they? Good for them, not sure what the relevance of this statement is. Anyway to date, this bear market has already equaled the biggest in terms of peak to trough declines in the last 20 years. It's always at least a little different isn't it? As you said we'll find out in due course exactly how different.

You said it may soon be the mother of all bear market rallies. I was being facetious by suggesting that '02 to '07 was in fact a bear market rally. I don't see it as being beyond the realm of possibility that we see something similar engineered, which ultimately patches things up well enough to convince people to start going long something again.

Then maybe it's time to stop looking at charts? My aim is to outperform the market over the full cycle. My measley portfolio is down less than half the current market decline. I'm happy with that result.

To what end? I went to cash in June/July '07, based on chart analysis. There is more than one way to skin the same cat, you know that.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

There is more than one way to skin the same cat,

:22_yikes:

Sufferin Succotash... ain't nobody gonna be skinnin this little black cat!

:run:

 

[Kauri]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm sometimes tempted to join in on all this pontificating and posturing... but luckily find that I am too busy trading...
Cheers
...........Kauri