CTO - Citigold Corporation

[refined silver]

A bit of movement yesterday and today, up over 10% today so far on decent volume. Why?

Gold shares are bottoming???

Some good news???

Meaningless spike and will be back down tomorrow???

 

[EasternGrey1]

It's not a general gold thing - here's today's larger gold shares:
Symbol Trade Change % Chg Volume
CTO.AX 0.2 Up 0.02 11.11% 1,864,129
AXM.AX 0.355 Up 0.0200 5.97% 1,343,352
SBM.AX 0.21 Up 0.01 5.00% 10,864,495
CNT.AX 1.04 Up 0.04 4.00% 191,903
NEM.AX 4.72 Up 0.17 3.74% 34,005
LGL.AX 1.78 Up 0.03 1.71% 18,823,393
AGG.AX 5.8 0 0.00% 2,685
DOM.AX 2.3 0 0.00% 316,354
MML.AX 0.91 0 0.00% 58,500
TRY.AX 1.56 0 0.00% 15,444
CRK.AX 0.77 0 0.00% 4,500
CXC.AX 1.9 0 0.00% 174,051
SGX.AX 3.15 Down 0.15 -4.55% 588,257
RSG.AX 1.16 Down 0.06 -5.31% 271,548
MLI.AX 0.17 Down 0.01 -5.56% 32,100
OZL.AX 1.27 Down 0.08 -5.93% 34,120,526
PRU.AX 0.8 Down 0.05 -6.43% 223,212
KCN.AX 4 Down 0.29 -6.76% 425,235
RMS.AX 0.54 Down 0.04 -6.90% 89,191
NCM.AX 18.6 Down 1.42 -7.09% 4,557,290
ALD.AX 0.25 Down 0.02 -7.41% 103,908
BDG.AX 0.145 Down 0.0150 -9.37% 846,392
AVO.AX 1.52 Down 0.17 -9.79% 817,854
AND.AX 0.95 Down 0.12 -11.63% 300,920
OGC.AX 0.47 Down 0.07 -12.96% 113,259

Maybe it's because someone has worked out that the mineralisation intersected by the deep hole at 500m is worth something.

Maybe it's because someone has worked out that CTO is worth more than its current price even if the deep hole doesn't find anything.

Maybe it's because someone has closed a short position.

Who knows? I don't.

All I know is it's about ... time CTO started going up, and today's move was welcome esp. if there are a lot more days like today to follow.

 

[refined silver]

It's not a general gold thing - here's today's larger gold shares:

Maybe it's because someone has closed a short position.

Who knows? I don't.

All I know is it's about ... time CTO started going up, and today's move was welcome esp. if there are a lot more days like today to follow.

Yep, agree, you've ruled out the first option.

That leaves CTO has got some good news: either the deep hole, improved production figures, or something else.

Or, meaningless spike. It started Tues though, so not just one day.

It'd be nice if it was susstained

 

[refined silver]

Moving again this morning, up another 7.5%.

Still no news out.

ANy ideas??????????????????????????????????????????

(Sorry for all the ????????, kept telling me not enough charcters!)

 

[EasternGrey1]

CTO share price going up isn't a surprise, what has been a surprise is how far the market earlier pushed it down.

With gold now likely to go through the roof, I did a scan of a whole heap of gold companies - see my post 12 Sept - with a view to buying some to go with my CTO holding. After eliminating a whole heap of them for various reasons, I was left with a shortlist of 4 plus CTO for comparison. The figures (such as I could find) updated to yesterday :
Avg grade g/t : CTO 14, AND 7, LGL 3, CRK 3, SBM 2.5
Mkt cap $A per resource oz : CTO 16, CRK 21, SBM 27, LGL 85, AND 161
Mkt cap per oz prodn : SBM 1,814, AND 2,357, CTO 3,902, LGL 4,311
f/c prodn cost $A/oz : CTO 350, LGL c.500, SBM 555
e&oe

Of the ones in prodn, CTO surely has the greatest potential to increase production, even if the deep hole finds nothing.

I just bought more CTO.

 

[EasternGrey1]

Gold up 11% last night - and I have to point out that was AFTER I said "with gold now likely to go through the roof".
Gold is $A1,096.50/oz as I type, compared with around $A980 yesterday.

 

[refined silver]

Announcement out today, Dubai Group have agreed to buy in 18% of CTO for $35m. That probably explains the movement a week ago.

On one hand its good they have their Warrior expansion virtually underwritten to ramp up from 40k oz/a to 100k oz/a. On the other hand, this is the third compnay I own where this has happened just recently, and I can't help feeling they let these guys in very cheap.

 

[EasternGrey1]

Cash is hard to come by nowadays. At least they've now got some, and "can't" go down the gurgler (unlike a number of other companies at the moment).

 

[rhen]

CTO share price going up isn't a surprise, what has been a surprise is how far the market earlier pushed it down.

With gold now likely to go through the roof, I did a scan of a whole heap of gold companies - see my post 12 Sept - with a view to buying some to go with my CTO holding. After eliminating a whole heap of them for various reasons, I was left with a shortlist of 4 plus CTO for comparison. The figures (such as I could find) updated to yesterday :
Avg grade g/t : CTO 14, AND 7, LGL 3, CRK 3, SBM 2.5
Mkt cap $A per resource oz : CTO 16, CRK 21, SBM 27, LGL 85, AND 161
Mkt cap per oz prodn : SBM 1,814, AND 2,357, CTO 3,902, LGL 4,311
f/c prodn cost $A/oz : CTO 350, LGL c.500, SBM 555
e&oe

Of the ones in prodn, CTO surely has the greatest potential to increase production, even if the deep hole finds nothing.

I just bought more CTO.

I'm not sure why investors have not rated this producing gold miner.
Check out the recent report by Khandwala Securities Limited 1/8/08:

Citigold is currently trading at a P/E of 5x, 2.5x and 1.5x
and EV/EBIDTA of 3x, 1x and 0.1x, for FY09E and FY10E
and FY11E respectively. Assigning a conservative PE of
25 to 2013 EPS of AUD 0.14, we arrive at a target price of
AUD 3.50 representing 1844% potential appreciation.
Major in-production companies command much higher
PE in the range of 35-50.
On DCF model using 12% discounting rate, we arrive at
our base price of AUD 1.28 (2013). The base price on DCF
valuation represents minimum 611% potential upside
from the current level.
Citigold’s enterprise valuation is expected to jump
significantly, by as much as five times, as further
resources are added as per geologists’ estimates taking
the total resources to 50 mn oz. This is yet to be complied
with as per code by the Joint Ores Resources Committee
(JORC) sponsored by Australian mining industry. JORC
code is widely accepted as an international standard and
mandatory as per Australia Stock Exchange (ASX).

And the gold price has gone up and likely to continue to go up.
I own shares in CTO.
DYOR

 

[So_Cynical]

Only time will tell, and its gona be along time coming.

CTO is debt free and in production so there not about to fall over, however
with production at ridiculously low levels the SP aint gona take off either.

The only short term hope for holders (me) is for spectacular success via the
deep hole or a senior management change or a takeover.

As i said a while ago (4th-August-2008) CTO aint about to fall over,CTO is
prob the only producing Goldie with genuine (long term) potential...that's why
i brought in in the first place.

 

[melons]

What are people's thoughts on CTO now? Are you still around Kennas....what do the charts look like to you??

 

[Sean K]

I'm not too sure about this company. They have an incredible IGV resource, at high grade, but at depth over range, and are ramping it up big time with claims they could have 50m oz au at depth. Not sure how they get away with that. Off the top of my head their cash costs are way above average due to the type of mine and rediculous Australian truck driver wages etc...

Recent funding deal must be a good sign that they will keep ticking along for a bit, but we've seen some good examples of companies being all cheerie one month and into administration the next...

Their last major pres says this:

•Pouring Gold
•Long life
•Major gold plant
•Reserve growth
•10 M/oz Resource
•Upside to 50 M/oz (LOL )
•Single efficient mine
•Low operating cost
•Good infrastructure

Chart wise looks bottomish to me, 15-20c ish held ok, but not going longer term up till those red lines are gone. Green circle call it sideways.

 

[Miner]

I do not know much about CTO either

However I understand from MEED news reports which I subscribe that CTO is doing good work in Saudi.

From memory Refined SIlver (?) did a good research on CTO in recent past.

Regards

 

[explod]

A Cousin of mine who lives in Townsville says "this is a very difficult mine". Like Bendigo, I understand it is deep and the rock very hard.

Having said that, they have it and if the gold price was to go and hold above $1000 you could be rewarded well in the longer term.

The chart looks very similar to most other gold stocks at the moment.

Operating costs are the issue, fuel down of late will help, a tough mine and they have been trying, not just this mob, for a long time with not great statisfaction.

Could be ramping for cash but not privvy to the ballance sheet at this time.

A strong gold price going forward then maybe no problem. IMVHO

 

[So_Cynical]

I hold CTO and have noticed the SP slowly building in the right direction
over the last month or so...after 3 months of sideways consolidation.

CTO get a mention in this story because they only have 5% of there market
cap in cash. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24735840-23634,00.html

And on the plus side CTO have increased gold production in every quarter for
the last year and a half...and produce at a very low cost.

Quote last quarterly. http://www.citigold.com/viewasxrelease.asp?Releasenumber=273

• $35 million capital raising with Dubai Group
• Independent experts confirm Resources, Reserves and mine plan
• Western decline commenced
• 3 Megawatt electric power upgrade completed
• 24/7 mining operations underway since August
• Gold production 3,960 oz, up 78%
• Cash operating cost A$371 per ounce
• Debt free
• No hedging


On the one hand CTO have genuine issues...and on the other, genuine potential.

 

[tthurlow2287]

I did this a few weeks back..

There is a double bottom formed, and I have been waiting for the price to pass through about 27.5 cents to confirm the change in trend. Yesterday the price hit 28 cents at close. IMO the uptrend is beginning. Plus, if you look @ the potential it has (my grandparents have followed it since 1995, so they know a lot about it) it is a very stable share to invest in. Low chance of failure.

 

[Tim_54321]

Anyone know why citigold has been so weak relative to other gold stocks over the last few days, especially when gold has rallied a bit?

 

[Sean K]

Anyone know why citigold has been so weak relative to other gold stocks over the last few days, especially when gold has rallied a bit?

I think it's questions regarding their deposit and if they really have the ounces and grades they claim. There's some independant report I read a while ago that says it's confirmed, but they're not digging it up! 4000 oz last quarter I think. Hardly pays the bills.

And their ramps of 50m oz au potential at the centre of the earth would have them banned from ASF.

This ramp seems especially dodgy since their 'deep hole' hardly hit anything, but again they claimed it supported their assumption that there was a massive pile of gold down there. I can't see how they can still maintain this projection...

Happy for a geo to say its all kosher.

 

[cwamit]

this is my first post so i hope i don't break any rules

i own some cto shares and always keep an eye on the stock price each day, anyhow look at the volume its massive the past few days, simple supply and demand is what pushing the price down, question is why the surge in volume? almost 8 million shares today and yesterday 5 million compared to average share day trade volumes of a 1 to 2 million.

my theory (hope im not breaking a rule here) is it could be to do with say a financial advisory company being put into voluntary administration..and lets say they are just down the road so i am assuming they might have owned some shares in the company and have to offload them.

opposed to that theory, i hope that there are no announcements over the next few weeks with some major negative news

oh well they are a long term hold for me anyhow and i am buying some more.

 

[nick2fish]

Hi Cwamit,
Welcome and thanks for your post. As a holder I am too somewhat puzzled and alarmed by the two days of double digit% losses coupled with very high volumes. If a substantial holder has been offloading we will be expecting a notice through axa very soon. There can be a delay in the posting as I have noticed with others on market offloads can take two or more days to complete I am in the dark as well because CTO sp is certainly going against the sector trend at the moment. Something is up and it is a bit frustrating as an investor to be the last to know