ADY - Admiralty Resources

[lioness]

Without a couple of ticks up, we could be looking down the barrel at $0.16. Really need the JORCs or at least some sort of positive news.

Yes, it appear you were right after all. Game over here as 16 is a certainty on that H&S pattern. I stayed in expecting news would come but there must be issues wit JORC. Looks like I am a long term holder now.

 

[rub92me]

Held up reasonably well today on low volume with some buyers stepping up at the close. Unless the market as a whole goes really pearshaped in the next couple of weeks, I don't think we'll see that 16 cents after all.

 

[gfresh]

Apparently (taken from the regular forum PT posts under) the Iron Ore upgraded JORC report is in the hands of Director Phil Thomas, however there is still some revision being undertaken for a few items. Should be out in next few days.

 

[roland]

JORC to be released next week.

Someone from Top Stocks called them:

I've had a brief chat to Maria at ADY melbourne office.

The JORC will not be released today. Sometime next week - she could not be more specific. Thanks Maria.

At least we didn't lose a pip today

 

[mapna]

JORC to be released next week.

Someone from Top Stocks called them:



At least we didn't lose a pip today

Roland - do you expect a good report from ADY next week???? ADY needs some good news to push it up. The late ann. might give ppl. impression about not very good news ????

I am not holding it but been watching for a while.

 

[roland]

OK, this is very 3rd hand. Posted on Top Stocks forum - having been copied off another forum. Looks legit ...

courtesy of harrywyborn from another forum
he emailed investor relation today:

I emailed Investor services today and this is the response

P.S i have also replied asking if this statement is still due this week as they stated last week it was.


Hi Harry,



Thank you for your email.



The drilling and sample results required for the JORC statement have already been completed by SRK.



SRK submitted a preliminary report to ADY which calculates the inferred, measured and proved resources of the Mariposa and Mirador mines based on a Fe cut off grade between 19% to 23%.



The cut grade require by Santa Barbara to mine economically is about 9%. Therefore the resource that we have received can be significantly upgraded.



SRK is required to complete a resource statement based on a Fe cut off grade of 9%. Once this report is submitted to and approved by ADY, a JORC statement will be released to the ASX and published on our website.





Kind regards,



Maria Vazquez

Admiralty Resources NL

Level 14, 200 Queen Street

Melbourne VIC 3001

P: +61 3 9642 8787

F: +61 3 8677 6949

E: investors@ady.com.au

W: www.ady.com.au

 

[aleckara]

Announcement out.

"87.9 million tonnes with an iron grade of
more than 23% iron for indicated and inferred categories."

They mention an iron ore price of $75.55. Is that per tonne?

 

[michael_selway]

Announcement out.

"87.9 million tonnes with an iron grade of
more than 23% iron for indicated and inferred categories."

They mention an iron ore price of $75.55. Is that per tonne?

Hm good article on ADY below, looks liek it has lithium and potash as well

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/32991/two-ways-to-play-the-lithium-boom.html

thx

MS

Much more speculative is Admiralty Resources, listed in Australia.

It is developing two major projects in South America – Rincon Salar in Argentina, estimated to contain 1.4 million tons of recoverable lithium and 2.5 million of potash, and due to come into production in a year’s time, and Santa Barbara in Chile, an iron ore mine that’s about to start up.

AR is still running big losses, but investors obviously believe those will evaporate, as an initial $200 million of annual revenues start to flow in from the two projects.

The share price has quadrupled this year and the chart looks great.

If anyone knows of a better way to invest in lithium, let me know and I’ll pass it on to readers.

 

[rub92me]

Hm good article on ADY below, looks liek it has lithium and potash as well

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/32991/two-ways-to-play-the-lithium-boom.html

thx

MS

Michael, that article is about a year old. And yes, of course they have Lithium and potash; they're the only ASX listed main play in Lithium around...

 

[Real1ty]

Michael, that article is about a year old. And yes, of course they have Lithium and potash; they're the only ASX listed main play in Lithium around...

Not quite right rub.....ORE is another that is a Lithium play and in some ways is quite similar to ADY but ADY is a lot more advanced.

 

[rub92me]

Hi Real1ty, I'm aware of ORE and they're on my watchlist. As you say, early days for them, they still have to prove the resource, etc. I don't expect them to be in production for at least 3-4 years.

 

[mapna]

Anyone know why ADY had good announcement on Friday but SP did not get push up after the ann.???

ADY seems moving slowly in production, getting slowly out of financial issues but still get good support from investors????

Any comments would be appreciated.

 

[aleckara]

Anyone know why ADY had good announcement on Friday but SP did not get push up after the ann.???

ADY seems moving slowly in production, getting slowly out of financial issues but still get good support from investors????

Any comments would be appreciated.

I would say missed deadlines, and their cash flow position have a lot to do with it.

But generally in a bull market I don't think the decline would have been that great due to these factors. Other companies that have made it big also have had close calls. All mining stocks (particularly iron ore) have been penalised lately.

 

[SM Junkie]

ADY is not the only company that has had a good announcement, only to see no real gain in the share price.

I have a lot of companies in my portfolio that are doing extremely well and expanding resources, but prices remain down.

I only see this as a positive at the moment because I can expand my position and buy into the companies that have been long on my watchlist

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Well bounce it did and I didn't have to wait too long,

Well I'm out, very nice profits from at 16.5c entry to a 21c exit

It may run higher it may not, it may be undervalued it may not, I approached this from the start as a stock that was overdue for a BOUNCE


Good luck to all

I have traded ADY in the past very successfully but have never really looked at the fundamentals closely because I viewed it as a small tonnage Magnetite play,

ie last time I looked it only had about 80Mt's grading 20% Fe, I thought sheesh thats a piss poor deposit,

I like Mag projects but they need to be 500Mt - 1Billion tonne to be of scale and also grade 30%-40% Fe

But then I realised why do these Magnetite deposits need to be so big and such high grade? Because the benefication plants required to treat/beneficate the ore to DSO saleable standard costs Billions, thats right Billions, just look at GBG ARH SDL for examples of Multi Billion Dollar Cap Ex projects, the bulk of which goes into the plants

But look at ADY, they have taken a 80Mt deposit grading 20% or so Fe and have gronw to a $200m Mkt Cap company in a few years

How has ADY managed to do this so quickly? The answer is quite simple really, they acquired a project with existing infrastrucutre ie the deposit was there, the port was there, the rail was there and most importantly what all other Magnetite players lack the plant was there

Now I don't hold ADY as its not my kind of fundamentally undervalued growth stock, however I may trade it, but what is interesting to look at is ADY's growth based on modest Magnetite production via benefication and ask who else has a good chance of replicating this?

 

[oldblue]

I don't hold ADY but have always thought that the lithium and potash were equally attractive from a speculative point of view?

 

[aleckara]

I would say that lithium and potash were MORE attractive from a 'speculative' point of view than the iron ore business however they aren't really producing as of yet in this sense. From a 'real cash flow' point of view the iron ore has a more immediate benefit.

In a sense Young Trader is right, they are managing in a way to treat an iron ore magnetite deposit at the production levels of a startup haematite project simply due to the fact that the equipment is already in place to extract and use. Well in terms of replication who else has all the factors you describe above? Admittely they do need to spend some money in order to upgrade their production so its from what I know not all there yet.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I would say that lithium and potash were MORE attractive from a 'speculative' point of view than the iron ore business however they aren't really producing as of yet in this sense. From a 'real cash flow' point of view the iron ore has a more immediate benefit.

In a sense Young Trader is right, they are managing in a way to treat an iron ore magnetite deposit at the production levels of a startup haematite project simply due to the fact that the equipment is already in place to extract and use. Well in terms of replication who else has all the factors you describe above? Admittely they do need to spend some money in order to upgrade their production so its from what I know not all there yet.

Yes the Lithium/Potash project arguably does offer alot of value, buts thats not what the company has grown on, they have grown on their quick development and production of their Iron ore business

and as Aleckara has correctly observed, they are able to produce ship and sell DSO level ore because the infrastructure of rail and ports are in place to transport the ore, but most importantly the Magnetite plant is there, this is the key factor, its the Royal flush which makes this project a goer, you see without the plant all ADY would have is 80-100Mt's of low grade 20% Fe Mag

Such a deposit is not very attractive at all, however add in the magnetite benefication plant and hey presto it doesn't matter that the grade is only 20% as after benefication its 62% Fe and thus DSO

At current DSO prices of $130 - $150/t and cost of mining, production and benefication being $30 - $50/t

Such an operation can net margins of $80/t - $120/t, thus even a 1Mt p.a. operation can gross $80M - $120m per annum and if the deposit is only 80Mt's well thats still enough for 80yrs worth of production

 

[EasternGrey1]

The ADY Quarterly Activities Report, issued yesterday, said:

Admiralty received a notice from the liquidators of Hawkswood Investments Pty Ltd that the loan amount of A$10.8m was due. We responded by asking the Supreme Court to determine that the repayment date is 30 September 2008 which was the date agreed upon by Hawkswood Directors and ourselves. The next return date in the Supreme Court is 10 September 2008.​

Can anyone tell me just what this means? It sounds like the request to the Supreme Court can't be heard before 10 Sep, in which case presumably ADY won't have to repay before then. That would give them plenty of time to get the necessary cash from iron ore exports in the meantime.
If that interpretation is right, then it seems there is nothing to worry about. Otherwise, maybe ADY is going to be stuck for cash???

 

[Largesse]

you are correct in assuming that the earliest date that they would have to settle their debt to hawkswood would be immediatly after the Sept 10 ruling, HOWEVER, i would suggest it would be very unlikely for the ruling to go against ADY, meaning that they would have until Sept 30 to settle, as stipulated in the contract.