ADY - Admiralty Resources

[rub92me]

Hey guys,

I've picked up quite a few ADY today as I see it wayy overdue for a bounce for the following reasons


1. Chart wise 16c is very very strong support and so to me there appears little downside from 16.5c

2. The company is currently producing and shipping Iron Ore profitably from its South American mine and has 2 Chinese offtake partners

3. The company has been negotiating a $1.8Billion offtake agreement with a Chinese group, if this is signed off on I'd expect the stock to go for a mad dash to the moon

4. The company has suffered heavily at the hands of Opes Prime, with some 200M shares being dumped on mkt causing the current SP collapse

5. The company is in the process of a demerger of its Lithium/Potash assets which alone I reckon are worth 20c ADY, the demerger will also give share holders a 1:1 free share post consolidation = 1:3.5 pre consolidation


So for all those reasons I expect a rebound off the current lows

Cheers

Excellent, good to have you on board. I've been holding for about 2 years, and it's been an interesting ride so far.
On item 2) They haven't been producing near as much as hoped/expected and continue to have challenges with getting additional and good equipment to increase production. Cash flow challenges have instilled some fear for some, but personally I think that given the resource they have and Chinese interest this is not much of a concern.
Share price started to slide way before the Opes mess came around but hasn't helped of course.
From a TA perspective could see some big buyers stepping up yesterday to soak up aggressive selling, so 16 cents looks like strong resistance to me as well. Onwards and upwards from here I hope!

 

[d_crome]

Yes, I'm back in at 16.5c.

The bounce may take a while to materialise and the big worry for investors has more to do with the taxes and general risks you have with an African country. I think this is reflected in the price and if something good happens at that front we could also get a bounce. They could just as easily decide to steal the company through even higher taxes.

Not a company for the faint hearted. I hope the CEO has a good relationship with the leaders of the country.

Africa?? Last I knew ADY was operational in South America....

I've a small holding in this and at the current levels I'm glad it's a SMALL holding else I'd be hurting!! This has the hallmarks of what could have been a great company - but there were serious road blocks along the way.

When the de-merger is complete I'll contemplate increasing my holding, the Lithium is a very attractive investment (and the fact that Potash is a BIPRODUCT of the Lithium extraction process - ADY could well have the Midas Poo Touch).

 

[oldblue]

Not too sure where the "African" bit comes from. The two big projects are in Chile and Argentina. I'm no expert but I understand that neither country is a high Country Risk in the international scene.
Biggest risk to my way of thinking is in getting the projects, particularly the lithium, up and running profitably.

Disc: Don't hold, but interested.

 

[Knobby22]

Doh

Yes you are right. (Too many mining companies in my head).

No what is wrong with company is the outstanding debt and the fact it deals with "Leverage Capital".
Others I know have no respect for management.

Still I'm back in.

Doh

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey guys

Great ann today from ADY, I have picked the best bits that I liked

1. The $1.8Billion Shougang offtake agreement appears to be a done deal as the hence why the NAB have given the $40m facility, they said they would not until offtake was signed, so it must be a fait to compli and should be signed off in early July

2. JORC upgrade for exisiting production areas in JULY, this is most welcomed

3. New Intial JORC for Mariposa before the end of June where ADY is looking to set up a Pellet plant operation, Shougang already has a Pellet production facility nearby and the other Chinese group WISCO are very interested


Given SDL's amazing perfromance of late, surely ADY which is at the bottom of its chart around 16.5c is due for a run?

 

[rub92me]

Can't fault your timing YT. Also have a look at the latest 'Topstock Questions & Answers' on the ADY site for further detail. All we need now is some good news on the Lithium tender as well and it could get some serious momentum.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Was always going to happen Rub,

Was wayyy overdue for a rebound

Glad I grabbed a few million at the lows

 

[roland]

The news today, in my opinion, was certainly nothing new, but was good to generate a little interest to bring back the SP a little.

YT being on board will generate a little extra attention from his "followers" and should help with some day trader activity. Thanks YT - love your work

I also think that we are close to seeing the last chance of picking up ADY in the teens - although the demerger turmoil still hangs over us, hard to know where the SP will go with that ....

 

[mapna]

The news today, in my opinion, was certainly nothing new, but was good to generate a little interest to bring back the SP a little.

YT being on board will generate a little extra attention from his "followers" and should help with some day trader activity. Thanks YT - love your work

I also think that we are close to seeing the last chance of picking up ADY in the teens - although the demerger turmoil still hangs over us, hard to know where the SP will go with that ....

As you mentioned in your post, "nothing new", I reckon today surge is just a one-off event by the ann. This stock has been up and down like it many times but only short live. The demerger issue and cash problem are still hanging around ... I wish to see this stock move up with strong fundamental support rather than ramping ....

IMHO - DYOR...

 

[rub92me]

As you mentioned in your post, "nothing new", I reckon today surge is just a one-off event by the ann. This stock has been up and down like it many times but only short live. The demerger issue and cash problem are still hanging around ... I wish to see this stock move up with strong fundamental support rather than ramping ....
IMHO - DYOR...

Well, I did my own research.
1) Demerger issue. The only 'issue' is that they are waiting from a ruling from ATO. If it is a favourable ruling (i.e. doesn't have adverse implications for holders) they will go ahead with it, otherwise they won't. Either way it won't negatively affect the value of my holding.
2) Cashflow issue. There is no cashflow issue anymore.They have a signed standby letter of credit for 40 million, which will allow them to proceed with their expansion.
Anyone is entitled to their opinion of course, but the ramping comment cuts both ways.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey guys,

I've picked up quite a few ADY today as I see it wayy overdue for a bounce for the following reasons


1. Chart wise 16c is very very strong support and so to me there appears little downside from 16.5c

2. The company is currently producing and shipping Iron Ore profitably from its South American mine and has 2 Chinese offtake partners

3. The company has been negotiating a $1.8Billion offtake agreement with a Chinese group, if this is signed off on I'd expect the stock to go for a mad dash to the moon

4. The company has suffered heavily at the hands of Opes Prime, with some 200M shares being dumped on mkt causing the current SP collapse

5. The company is in the process of a demerger of its Lithium/Potash assets which alone I reckon are worth 20c ADY, the demerger will also give share holders a 1:1 free share post consolidation = 1:3.5 pre consolidation


So for all those reasons I expect a rebound off the current lows

Cheers

Well bounce it did and I didn't have to wait too long,

Well I'm out, very nice profits from at 16.5c entry to a 21c exit

It may run higher it may not, it may be undervalued it may not, I approached this from the start as a stock that was overdue for a BOUNCE


Good luck to all

 

[NickVC]

It just gone up to 0.23, I got in at 0.20 this morning. Company announcement regarding Rinkon was made at 12:37pm, so this may be pushing up the prices.

 

[cordelia]

well I bought these yesterday at .18 and sold today at .265...thought it was best to take a profit...

quite happy really..besides it was too nerve racking

 

[rub92me]

Good old Phil Thomas is back to his usual trick of staggering the good announcements to bring in the daytraders. All time volume record, but a lot of it probably churn. A finish around the mid twenties would be nice.

 

[cordelia]

well I am not a daytrader but when prices go up this fast they can sometimes go down just as quick. I'll jump back on when it finds some support...

 

[NickVC]

I got spooked by the last few posts and sold out at 0.26, but not a bad increase after buying in this morning at 0.20

 

[chrissyoscar]

I bought late last week and topped up a few times this week for an average of .173 but will hold for now.
This company has potential and with the demerger happening soon that'll make it more attractive.
Better value for investors according to the guys in the know.

 

[cordelia]

What a great day for ADY.....and a good place to close.....Hopefully some consolidation around this level and then off again

 

[roland]

Well, the "TOPSTOCKS Questions & Answers - Updated 06/06/2008" from ADY's website is quite an interesting read, a few lame questions that Phil had to deal with.

Phil's responses are quite inspiring and certainly shows his obvious level of commitment and vision for ADY. Reading through the whole thing makes you feel a little exhausted.

I have short term traded ADY since early 2005, but now I am getting the feeling that any selling of my growing holdings would be like throwing out the baby with the bath water.

I am actually hoping for a pull back so I can grab some more

 

[kerosam]

just hoping pay check would come faster... wanted to get in when they were 18cts few days/weeks ago... SP wasn;t moving anywhere then... maybe i should put $500 and see how lucky i can get