ADY - Admiralty Resources

[rub92me]

roland, I agree with you that Lithium batteries will not always be the best technology around, however a major shift (and associated investment) is taking place in the car industry. Their focus for now is Lithium batteries. Reserves are indeed plentiful (e.g. ADY has enough for about 400 years of production) however of shorter term interest would be production capacity.
For the next 5 years at least I'm expecting demand for Lithium to accelerate sharply and production capacity lagging.

 

[renim]

firstly ADY appears quite diversified in its bets.

Potash for the next green revolution (as in food production, not enviromentalism)
Iron ore, for the Chindia story
Lithium, for the electric car disruption
and lowly a lowly zinc deposit at 10% equiv grade for a surface mine!

each alone has much potential, the only thing missing is a gas/oil well somewhere.


Back to lithium, the world is basically a large lump of iron ore, but the pilbara is still valuable. Virtually all minerals are held back by production capacity, not deposits (excluding oil), include oil if you include coal to oil or oilshale/sand extraction. This is the first decade in maybe 70years where mineral prices are higher after than before, strange times.

Mines don't ramp up 100 fold increases in short time frame, and the amount of announcements coming out about auto makers and lithium batteries is positively electrifying. (pun intended).

i've got a bet on a battery alternative to lithium, but for car batteries, LiFePO4 is the way to go. Lead Acid lasted us 130years. LiFeP04 will be cheap, safe and will cause a gigantic change.

look up 'Project Better Place' and Shai Agassi. Their white paper is very interesting. I'm not saying that they will be the ones, but I think their perception of the future is almost inevitable.

 

[lioness]

Renim,

You are right, they have their hands in many pies here. In fact everything except oil/gas/uranium.

With so many projects and showing so much promise, why is this stock so cheap???????????

It really should be much higher given their advanced projects nearing production over the short term.

Would ayone else like to argue against me?

I know they are waiing on a tax ruling and the demerger issue hangs but is it just me that thinks with several good announcements this will be much higher??

Also in the ASX300 now so fund managers will be buying.

I think this is a great investment. Please someone disagree as I have bought into this at 24.5 cents.

PS Can someone throw a chart analysis in here also please

 

[lioness]

I think part of the reason for ADY's abysmal share price performance recently - on top of the ANZ Opes Prime mess - has been the cash flow position. Thursday's[?] cash flow report showed enough cash for 3 days.

We know that ADY has a heap of cash coming in soon, now that it has started its iron ore exports, but will it run out of cash first?

I think yesterday's announcement gives the answer - they raised $1m by issuing shares. What that suggests is that they don't need a lot of cash to tide them over. Even if they do another $2-3m that doesn't dilute too much.

My reading is that they will survive and thrive. I bought at prices from 0.26 down to 0.18 (more at 0.18 thankfully), so I'm now about all square but feeling very confident.

Has anyone put a value on ADY?

Did anyone give an answer as to their opinion on what the share price is actually worth?? I could not find an answer to this question earlier??? Current market cap is 305 million and this seems cheap especially if they sign the 1.8 billion deal with Chinese.

 

[roland]

Did anyone give an answer as to their opinion on what the share price is actually worth?? I could not find an answer to this question earlier??? Current market cap is 305 million and this seems cheap especially if they sign the 1.8 billion deal with Chinese.

Well, the share price is worth as much as the market says it is - even if it isn't, or we would like it to be more.

Right now everyone is busting a gut for news, or an announcement or something to get out the day trading bot rut that sees huge volumes of trades with little or no SP movement. I for one, don't have the capitol to play the half cent movements - and any purchase above .20 would muck up my average.

I must admit though, I do have an order sitting there at .235 for any downward spike.

I have read everything I can find on websites, forums, broker sites, related resource sites etc, etc and I am close to exhaustion.

My personal, unofficial, non recomendation, value right now is around 28 - 30 cents. There is certainly potential for the stock to drop back to 17 cents if we continue to have no news.

A decent announcement has the potential to bust through the 30 cent barrier in a flash - apart from that, then speculation (and some speculators) have a target of above 60 cents.

Time will tell, meanwhile the day traders are turning the stock into a tennis match, and it makes me dizzy watching the share price tick back and forward by half cent all day long with 20 - 40 million volume. Sort of tempting to play ?????

 

[lioness]

Well, the share price is worth as much as the market says it is - even if it isn't, or we would like it to be more.

Right now everyone is busting a gut for news, or an announcement or something to get out the day trading bot rut that sees huge volumes of trades with little or no SP movement. I for one, don't have the capitol to play the half cent movements - and any purchase above .20 would muck up my average.

I must admit though, I do have an order sitting there at .235 for any downward spike.

I have read everything I can find on websites, forums, broker sites, related resource sites etc, etc and I am close to exhaustion.

My personal, unofficial, non recomendation, value right now is around 28 - 30 cents. There is certainly potential for the stock to drop back to 17 cents if we continue to have no news.

A decent announcement has the potential to bust through the 30 cent barrier in a flash - apart from that, then speculation (and some speculators) have a target of above 60 cents.

Time will tell, meanwhile the day traders are turning the stock into a tennis match, and it makes me dizzy watching the share price tick back and forward by half cent all day long with 20 - 40 million volume. Sort of tempting to play ?????

Cheers Roland, but it was worth 60 cents over 6 months ago and now they are nearing production so it should be worth more than current price.

BUT you are spot on with bot activity. They need big news quick to help smash through the 30 cent resistance. Don't think we will see 17 again but 23.5 is a good chance. The Dow tanking tonight won't help it that's for sure.

 

[roland]

OK, admitting to laziness, "rileyi" on the Top Stocks forums has come up with the following:

ADY Fe = $0.69 cps
RLL Li & Potash = $0.88 cps
Bullman - not costed, but valued at $5m - $5b


you can read the full post here: http://www.topstocks.com.au/asx_dis...eadpost&pid=243340&fid=27#d3Kwmz77-w341243340

 

[lioness]

OK, admitting to laziness, "rileyi" on the Top Stocks forums has come up with the following:

ADY Fe = $0.69 cps
RLL Li & Potash = $0.88 cps
Bullman - not costed, but valued at $5m - $5b


you can read the full post here: http://www.topstocks.com.au/asx_dis...eadpost&pid=243340&fid=27#d3Kwmz77-w341243340

Roland, if this is the value of such projects, why is it so cheap.

Is it because they are far away from production of such projects??

I thought they had several milestones that were close to production. You also didn't mention what their iron ore is worth??

I suppose once they announce such milestones, it will be re-rated??

 

[lioness]

Roland, if this is the value of such projects, why is it so cheap.

Is it because they are far away from production of such projects??

I thought they had several milestones that were close to production. You also didn't mention what their iron ore is worth??

I suppose once they announce such milestones, it will be re-rated??

Apolgies roland, just noticed fe in your post which iron ore

Now I will wait for your response. damn this short reposnse loop!

 

[roland]

Roland, if this is the value of such projects, why is it so cheap.

Is it because they are far away from production of such projects??

I thought they had several milestones that were close to production. You also didn't mention what their iron ore is worth??

I suppose once they announce such milestones, it will be re-rated??

"Why is it so cheap"?

Well, I guess it's because there are more people willing to sell to make a half cent profit, than people willing to hold.

Sort of a "catch22", no point putting money into a stock that doesn't increase in value, and it's not going to increase in value until people start putting money into it.

I have no more idea than you, or many others here as to why the SP is not higher - the story of much of the Stock Market right now - ADY is not alone, I could rattle off 30 or more comparitive companies that are sitting in the same boat.

Your best bet, rather than me doing for it for, would be to read the entire thread here, then go over to Top Stocks and read the entire thread there, then hit the ADY website and read all that stuff too. Then you would know as much as the rest of us

 

[lioness]

"Why is it so cheap"?

Well, I guess it's because there are more people willing to sell to make a half cent profit, than people willing to hold.

Sort of a "catch22", no point putting money into a stock that doesn't increase in value, and it's not going to increase in value until people start putting money into it.

I have no more idea than you, or many others here as to why the SP is not higher - the story of much of the Stock Market right now - ADY is not alone, I could rattle off 30 or more comparitive companies that are sitting in the same boat.

Your best bet, rather than me doing for it for, would be to read the entire thread here, then go over to Top Stocks and read the entire thread there, then hit the ADY website and read all that stuff too. Then you would know as much as the rest of us

Roland,

Yes I have read some of that stuff but will read the rest. It seems to be that it will be re-rated when they are cashflow positive. Until then, I am trading it purely off the charts. I have bought 1.1 million shares at 24.5 cents purely off the charts. I am confident this will continue on upwards over the next 3-4 weeks with newsflow.

 

[roland]

Roland,

Yes I have read some of that stuff but will read the rest. It seems to be that it will be re-rated when they are cashflow positive. Until then, I am trading it purely off the charts. I have bought 1.1 million shares at 24.5 cents purely off the charts. I am confident this will continue on upwards over the next 3-4 weeks with newsflow.

well you've got more than me, I'm feeling jealous now

I'd be expecting a little more weakness to come over the next couple of days, but should be short lived

good luck

 

[roland]

ADY is still stuck in the doldrums. Be nice to get past this 26.5 resistance, but like most, I am thinking nothing is going to do it short of some sort of annoncement.

 

[rx1]

Down a bit today... does any one know when they will be announcing the demerger terms? - should be soonish...???

 

[roland]

Down a bit today... does any one know when they will be announcing the demerger terms? - should be soonish...???

mmm, well 10%, or there abouts, is not really a little down...

I don't believe that anyone can provide any more info on the demerger than what has been published on the ADY website.

Some took the following announcement today as a downer, with further devaluation/dillution of the share value:

Loan Conversion
Today the Company announced the issue of over 24 million shares as a result of conversion of loan funds of US $4 million by Ya Global Investments LP.
This brings the total amounts converted to US $13 million, leaving a balance owing on the loan of US $7 million.

The conversions have been made at a price of AUD $0.175 per share. Ya Global Investments LP have the contractual right to convert at the lowest price at which the company issues shares whilst the loan is outstanding.

The Board of Directors welcome the reduction of the company’s indebtedness which assists the company in preparing for its demerger arrangements and future debt-only facilities to expand the company’s productive capacity in Chile and in Argentina.

In addition one million shares have issued upon the exercise of the 2009 options held by our Chairman, Professor J. Ross Harper.

 

[roland]

I'm not a chart guy, but I would suggest that there is some cause for a threat of a downside. I think a lot of more learned people than I could see a dip back to .16

 

[cordelia]

Well it is the end of the financial year and there's plenty of buyers for the shares that people are getting rid of it would seem...

What is the demerger all about

 

[mapna]

What worried me the most about this stock is it keeps issueing more shares to cover its debts. The more shares it issued, the less the value of share would be unless it made more profits to cover the new issues... Today it announced to convert 24mil share @0.175 to cover 4mil debts...

Would u sell these 24mil @ anything greater @0.175 to make profit if these are yours ???

I am always wrong.

IMHO and DYOR please.

 

[roland]

What worried me the most about this stock is it keeps issueing more shares to cover its debts. The more shares it issued, the less the value of share would be unless it made more profits to cover the new issues... Today it announced to convert 24mil share @0.175 to cover 4mil debts...

Would u sell these 24mil @ anything greater @0.175 to make profit if these are yours ???

I am always wrong.

IMHO and DYOR please.

I agree that it looks like the dillution is continuing with additional share issues. On the other hand is does show some level of confidence from the lender if they are prepared to take script in lieu of $$'s - even if it does dilute the share value, it does reduce the debt ... which in turn increases the company's ability to get closer to profitability.

Considering the volume, today for example, in share transactions was 33mil with little change in share value, it would be quite concievable for the market to absorb the above share issue, (if sold off) with little change in SP. Sounds like a reasonable way to offload some debt.

.... actually today was not a great example, since we lost nearly 10%, but we have had many days with ADY's share volume up to 45mil and flip-flopping $0.05 all day long.

Off loading debt is a good move, the lender taking shares to reduce debt is a good sign, we just need to be comfortable that there is no mis management with the company's finances to maintain investor confidence.

 

[Datsun Disguise]

Would u sell these 24mil @ anything greater @0.175 to make profit if these are yours ???

At 25c a share this issue was worth $6m to the creditor, so the 17.5c is what they have considered a floor unless their startegy is to sell off straight away. If this is the strategy then making an extra $1 ~ 2m out of a $4m debt would probably get someone a tick on their scorecard and an extra kick in their bonus. Would be surprised if the creditor held.

I must say I don't like this kind of approach to addressing debt - if $4m in debt is hurting then we've got bigger problems to worry about.