AED - AED Oil
- Thread starter lewstherin
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did you know the the chairman of this ...er shamozal is one ironicaly named
Mr . Dix!....go figure.
Mr . Dix!....go figure.
Obviously coming from someone much wiser than everyone else who has never ever lost money on a stock.
chops_a_must
Printing My Own Money
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Obviously coming from someone much wiser than everyone else who has never ever lost money on a stock.
It's not about losing money, it's about potentially losing ALL of your money. And no, I've never put myself in that position, and I hope my trading/ investing and risk management strategies never allow for that to happen.
It is just utter nonsense that people have been in this from the beginning and given back 90% of their profits, or people losing 90% of the money they put in this stock. With a very real possibility of losing it all. It is just insane.
I agree, to not have stops on a stock like this is naive/ risky.
I have lost about a grand on this stock and that stings. However, some people here by the looks of things have lost $10,000's - I don't think your comments like before add any benefit to anyone...
Also, so we are not at crossed paths, I assume you mean you've never put yourself in a position to lose all of your invesment - I refuse to believe you have never lost something on a stock.
Cheers
chops_a_must
Printing My Own Money
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Mate... if I had never lost anything on a stock, I sure as hell wouldn't be on this forum. But yes, I guess this is the reason why they say buy and holding is the most risky way to be in the market. I just don't understand that philosophy.
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Chops I have to say that my comments maybe absurd, and you have the right to wield that stick at me for that. I have every right to vent, and bring a little humour to the situation (although it being dark humour).
However, its easy to sit back now in hindsight and ramp down on AED.
If it were still continuing on its high, or higher, then you'd be saying completely different things perhaps. I haven't checked out your posts from when AED was at high sail, but I dare say that you were also riding the waves.
Like very few people on this forum, I have confidence, and hold for the long term. Its not to say that I haven't made a profit on these guys since IPO, and continue to do so, so I'm not complaining. Just wish I picked the large fall and had some juicy ETOs lined up.
I continue to hold a position, as with other oilers who have suffered from the market downturn, and I'm going to give them time.
AED have the worst management I know of, and thats where we end our commonality Chops.
Of course these are my own comments and strategy...
However, its easy to sit back now in hindsight and ramp down on AED.
If it were still continuing on its high, or higher, then you'd be saying completely different things perhaps. I haven't checked out your posts from when AED was at high sail, but I dare say that you were also riding the waves.
Like very few people on this forum, I have confidence, and hold for the long term. Its not to say that I haven't made a profit on these guys since IPO, and continue to do so, so I'm not complaining. Just wish I picked the large fall and had some juicy ETOs lined up.
I continue to hold a position, as with other oilers who have suffered from the market downturn, and I'm going to give them time.
AED have the worst management I know of, and thats where we end our commonality Chops.
Of course these are my own comments and strategy...
The double digits drop off the SP everyday amazes me everytime, that said, I'm not kicking myself for jumping in on the slide when I did at $2.50, its hard to pick the bottom, especially on this one! Will it go lower? Maybe-maybe not, hindsight is great. I think there is plenty enough potential for AED, most of this is based on lack of news and fearful speculation so I'm hanging in there for some good news and the long term. If you like the thrill of high gains high risk then this is for you right now, as is RRS.
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IMO there is a reason that AED has been sold down heavily, cash flow problems and production problems.
I thought that ongoing costs for production were around $450, 000 per day. With AED producing around 6, 500 barrels per day we get about $585, 000 revenue. So the company is just cashflow positive. But with its 100 odd thousand per day how long is that going to take to pay back just the first 40 million owed.
I don't think people are understanding the issue with cash flow, if it cannot pay its debts it will become insolvent. AED needs a lot more finance to fix the field but no one wants to pony up finance if it cannot be repayed. Other companies may have been looking at the field but with ongoing production problems are very wary.
Do we even know how much oil is in the field with these continual downgrades? People keep stating AED have 100 million barrels surely thats worth something? Well the recoverable oil could now be quite low due to misunderstanding of the geology of the tight sands in the field.
I am watching from the sidelines and do not intend to get in after VRE went into administration. Sure they are a spec but similar problem, not nough cash flow to pay their debts.
I bought into AED at $6 on the rise up and sold at $9.70, this was when sentiment was great and they were producing 30, 000 barrels per day. Its now down to 6, 500, from the last ann.
But IMO there is a reason is has been sold down, and the reasons are obvious.
I thought that ongoing costs for production were around $450, 000 per day. With AED producing around 6, 500 barrels per day we get about $585, 000 revenue. So the company is just cashflow positive. But with its 100 odd thousand per day how long is that going to take to pay back just the first 40 million owed.
I don't think people are understanding the issue with cash flow, if it cannot pay its debts it will become insolvent. AED needs a lot more finance to fix the field but no one wants to pony up finance if it cannot be repayed. Other companies may have been looking at the field but with ongoing production problems are very wary.
Do we even know how much oil is in the field with these continual downgrades? People keep stating AED have 100 million barrels surely thats worth something? Well the recoverable oil could now be quite low due to misunderstanding of the geology of the tight sands in the field.
I am watching from the sidelines and do not intend to get in after VRE went into administration. Sure they are a spec but similar problem, not nough cash flow to pay their debts.
I bought into AED at $6 on the rise up and sold at $9.70, this was when sentiment was great and they were producing 30, 000 barrels per day. Its now down to 6, 500, from the last ann.
But IMO there is a reason is has been sold down, and the reasons are obvious.
I bought it when it broke the $5 resistance and sold it at $7-something.
Big clients from MacBank and UBS were in this heavily back in those days as well.
Cannot believe how much its being taken to the cleaners!
Use stops guys, please.
Its true that if you bet, you cant win, but remember also that if you have no chips, you cant bet.
"Don't focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have" - Paul Tudor Jones.
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ASX Announcement 13 February 2008
Cyclone Watch
The FPSO – Front Puffin advises it is presently on cyclone watch. There is a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Pardoo to Kalumburu.
As standard operating procedure the FPSO has stopped production. Should a cyclone develop, as it is expected to, the FPSO will disconnect from its mooring and travel to calmer waters. During this time the crew remain onboard. Maintenance and other works can be conducted during this period.
AED can't win at the moment..
Cyclone Watch
The FPSO – Front Puffin advises it is presently on cyclone watch. There is a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Pardoo to Kalumburu.
As standard operating procedure the FPSO has stopped production. Should a cyclone develop, as it is expected to, the FPSO will disconnect from its mooring and travel to calmer waters. During this time the crew remain onboard. Maintenance and other works can be conducted during this period.
AED can't win at the moment..
DJ is right on the money there..
Heavily indebted to get the operation up and running, probably a 6 month window to ensure that production gets up to scratch, and they've failed. It was always a tight window, and unfortunately with the expected cash flow isn't coming through, there is only so long it can go on like this.. No matter what the potential is there in the field, AED has not utilised this as expected, and importantly, where debts are becoming due.
A larger oiler would have other projects ongoing to bear out a costly research program to fix the issue, but as AED is a one trick pony, it's gig is probably up.
A cyclone stop really doesn't help things to add to the extremely negative cashflow position
VRE should be a warning.. stay clear!
Heavily indebted to get the operation up and running, probably a 6 month window to ensure that production gets up to scratch, and they've failed. It was always a tight window, and unfortunately with the expected cash flow isn't coming through, there is only so long it can go on like this.. No matter what the potential is there in the field, AED has not utilised this as expected, and importantly, where debts are becoming due.
A larger oiler would have other projects ongoing to bear out a costly research program to fix the issue, but as AED is a one trick pony, it's gig is probably up.
A cyclone stop really doesn't help things to add to the extremely negative cashflow position
VRE should be a warning.. stay clear!
Maybe AED can apply for a force majeure this should at least give them some breathing space
cheers laurie
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This stock is one roller coaster, wow @ $11 to $1, thats what scares me about small caps D:
But I think this one had some nasty issues on the inside.
But I think this one had some nasty issues on the inside.
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Woooo Hoooo!!!
Up 30% already today!!!
Now where can you find those of gains, eh???
A quality stock.
Up 30% already today!!!
Now where can you find those of gains, eh???
A quality stock.
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I wouldn't say quality, but the gains are nice!
Disc I do not hold, I am watching from sidelines to see how their cash position pans out.
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looks as though positive sentiment has returned to this stock,
also have noticed alot of trades under $500 = bots or some form of takeover??
if it finishes above 1.50 it will finish above its 7 day average
provided a solid gain on DOW tonight would further encourage buying
my
also have noticed alot of trades under $500 = bots or some form of takeover??
if it finishes above 1.50 it will finish above its 7 day average
provided a solid gain on DOW tonight would further encourage buying
my
rub92me
Don't look back
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Hehe. If you held from $10 to $1 then you only have another 870% to go before you break even.Woooo Hoooo!!!
Up 30% already today!!!
Now where can you find those of gains, eh???
A quality stock.
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looks as though positive sentiment has returned to this stock,
also have noticed alot of trades under $500 = bots or some form of takeover??
if it finishes above 1.50 it will finish above its 7 day average
provided a solid gain on DOW tonight would further encourage buying
my
Indeed a good day for anyone who was game enough to get in today.
But how much confidence does anyone have that the DOW will have another good day tomorrow?
I have very little, thats why I didn't bother to jump on today.
Got too many losses as it is so like dj, I'm just a spectator too.
It was a strong close and it may even buck the trend against the dow tomorrow. Its been a very long down trend and I dont think it will correct it self in one day. 10 to 1 dollar is a big fall and things look promising in the short term in there recent reports. I got onboard just after the lunch time low. At $1.80 just last week I think we still have a lot of room for movement
