XAO Technical Analysis

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: XAO Analysis

Some more disappointment out of the US combined with a 200+ drop, could really send us plunging!

lets hope they get there 50point cut!

 

[kengaikl]

Re: XAO Analysis

I reckon everyones shorting the market just in time for the FED to disappoint the market with a small cut just like last time. If they aint gonna cut atleast 50 to 75 bps they might as well leave the rates as they are. The markets wants to be surprised for it to move up. Personally i reckon even a 50 bps point cut will probably disappoint too.

 

[Nyden]

Re: XAO Analysis

Some more disappointment out of the US combined with a 200+ drop, could really send us plunging!

lets hope they get there 50point cut!

But, are they already expecting that? :
A 50bp cut is not a guaranteed green day.

Some would say the waiting for Christmas is far more enjoyable than Christmas day itself ... after tonight, what do the US have to look forward to for a while? More major bank losses? The next rogue trader? Next piece of bad housing data?

& Over there in the States, what with the low interest rates; the markets are about one of the only places you can keep money with half decent returns ... here in OZ, we have high interest accounts with 8% returns, so a lot of conservative people are avoiding the markets completely here.

 

[kengaikl]

Re: XAO Analysis

Please bloomberg, CNBC or any other business related news and media stop freaking out investors.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: XAO Analysis

I reckon everyones shorting the market just in time for the FED to disappoint the market with a small cut just like last time. If they aint gonna cut atleast 50 to 75 bps they might as well leave the rates as they are. The markets wants to be surprised for it to move up. Personally i reckon even a 50 bps point cut will probably disappoint too.

Sadly i think you are right, the FED has put themselves in a bad situation. from now on investors are all going to look for salvation anytime something goes wrong. these are just normal behavior patterns of a market. for markets to go up they need to go down as well.

 

[Edwood]

Re: XAO Analysis

a large cut may do more harm than good now tho in terms of confirming that things are a complete mess. the 75pt cut was supposedly called before the market knew about SocGen - a smaller cut now or no cut may signal that things are not that bad after all. either way I'm likely to be flat tonight (altho have just taken a small long looking for a bouncette)

 

[Nyden]

Re: XAO Analysis

a large cut may do more harm than good now tho in terms of confirming that things are a complete mess. the 75pt cut was supposedly called before the market knew about SocGen - a smaller cut now or no cut may signal that things are not that bad after all. either way I'm likely to be flat tonight (altho have just taken a small long looking for a bouncette)

Yes, we might be in for a little bounce here, but I'm not convinced it'll last until close. I believe anxiety will leave us fairly in the red at the close.


& Yes, shorters awaiting the sea of red tomorrow :

 

[Real1ty]

Re: XAO Analysis

I am betting on a .5 cut because Ben does what the market wants.

I believe the Aus market is factoring in a global slowdown combined with our high inflation issues and the possibility of a housing correction, amongst other things.

I believe our market falls are a realisation of the times to come, combined with a great past few years and the US and asian markets are living in delusion....there time will come.

This is purely a gut feeling on my behalf but IF the US and Chinese markets start to tank later, you might find we won't have the same type of % losses as them for the above stated reasons.

 

[Edwood]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yes, we might be in for a little bounce here, but I'm not convinced it'll last until close.

depends how comfortable people will be holding shorts before a rate call where the expectation is for a cut & market rally - if anything we are more likely to see a rise into close as shorts close - imo

 

[Nyden]

Re: XAO Analysis

depends how comfortable people will be holding shorts before a rate call where the expectation is for a cut & market rally - if anything we are more likely to see a rise into close as shorts close - imo

Well, different point of views I guess.

I certainly expect anything but a rally from the US tonight. They've already rallied 2-3 days based on the upcoming rate cut. They rallied based on bad housing data! On the hope of further cuts. Heck, time was - a market rallied on good news, dropped on the bad ...

They've already rallied on the cut, it's already factored in. I believe (just my opinion, not worth a lot! Heh we'll see a strong sell off in the US tonight, (edit) & here in OZ towards the close ... which so far seems to be supported. We're just sinking lower & lower here ... down 40

 

[Awesomandy]

Re: XAO Analysis

I am betting on a .5 cut because Ben does what the market wants.

According to the futures, the odds for a 50bps cut has dropped from 86% yesterday to 75% a little while ago.

 

[skating101]

Re: XAO Analysis

I expect a 50 bp cut will bring in the buyers and will inflate everything until about lunchtime then there will be a massive selloff which is likely to continue for a bit

 

[kengaikl]

Re: XAO Analysis

Todays markets are already predicting that the feds going to disappoint.
I feel that the feds going to surprise the hell out of everyone.

 

[numbercruncher]

Re: XAO Analysis

US the next carry trade nation you reckon ? Feds already lending to it customers below Inflation !

 

[korrupt_1]

Re: XAO Analysis

I believe anxiety will leave us fairly in the red at the close.

Good call Nyden... looks like it did continue to tank right until the close.. only 9 points of it's lowest low today...

One would have thought there would have been a short covering rally to close the day, but that was just wishfull thinking... I 'betted' a few longs in hoping to catch that wave, but kept getting wiped-out lost a few K's there...

It's all up to the yanks now... just hope they dont make a dog's breakfast out of it.. but knowing them.. they are likely to do that anyway....

For my 2c's worth ,my prediction for fed rate cuts:
0 point - market crashes - we open tomorrow at around 5400's (in line with Jan 20th's close)
25 point - market crashes - we open tomorrow at around 5500's (lower congestion band around Jan 24th)
50 points - market could crash or rally
75 points - hello MOON, here we come!! - we open around 5800's (back to where started today)

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: XAO Analysis

depends how comfortable people will be holding shorts before a rate call where the expectation is for a cut & market rally - if anything we are more likely to see a rise into close as shorts close - imo

Nope...

I think I'll dub the ASX "The Little Aussie Bleeder".... and I see blood all the way back through the 5,000 pt long term trend line for the All Ords before any serious turn-around can eventuate.

Chiz,


AJ

 

[mfp]

Re: XAO Analysis

The DOW seems perfectly poised for a huge dump tonight, like "buy the rumour, sell the fact". I also think it is overdue for a big surprise to the downside, unlike what we have seen of late where it has rallied on days that European and Asian markets have tanked. Furthermore, it's interesting to note that this 800 point rally off the recent 11700 intraday low has stopped just short of 12500, the August intraday low.

 

[Buffettology]

Re: XAO Analysis

Ive got a bad feeling about the rest of this week!

I see the Fed only cutting rates 25bps (too hard to tell the effects of their last rate cut considering most effects dont hit the statistics until a year + and anymore could dramatically reduce their ability for further action needed). I think we will see a DUMP in the US overnight.

Dont think we would see a 75bp cut, highly highly unlikely!

 

[Bushman]

Re: XAO Analysis

Ive got a bad feeling about the rest of this week!

I see the Fed only cutting rates 25bps (too hard to tell the effects of their last rate cut considering most effects dont hit the statistics until a year + and anymore could dramatically reduce their ability for further action needed). I think we will see a DUMP in the US overnight.

Dont think we would see a 75bp cut, highly highly unlikely!

After the early spike, we lost 3.4% intraday (5850 to 5650). So the market has factored in a Barry Crocker on the DJIA I would say.

Whether it is 25 bp or 50 bp is splitting hairs IMO. It is the psychological impact of any Fed move. 'We will not let you fall' is the message being projected to the itchy fingered trading and investing masses. An emergency 75 bp cut last week boomed that message out to the Yanks loud and clear. This rate cut is the icing on the cake. So now it is how deep the recession given the Fed is on our side that needs to be decided.

Personnally I say 50 bp to re-inforce the 'BOLDNESS OF BEN'. Shock and awe is the American way.

 

[stockwhizben]

Re: XAO Analysis

(with the banks getting smashed, goodbye superannuation returns! whats with the safe steadfast cba of late. hmmm)

i agree with the comment about after tonight the US has nothing left to look forward to apart from more dismal earnings and poor economic data

any comments on my prediction that all ords could rocket once bhp and rio report? up until today i thought this would happen now not so sure after Woolworths got done over even after reporting big numbers.
if the bhp numbers arent massive or show signs of slowing the all ords will plummet i believe.

i also believe the fed will cut by 25 for the reason their market is still holding up and has not been a catastrophic fall and they will think they have done a fair bit with the 75 earlier

ps. Nyden. Have you bought back in on anything or you out? the index stock?