AED - AED Oil

[sfx]

The one thing I am interested in, is when the next off take is scheduled. No news about this as yet.

Interesting watching these birds go up and down. I hope the many day traders out there are picking it, as I'm not...

 

[Icharus]

Had a look at the last shipment times 35 days between shipments for 315,000 barrels that actually works out at 9000 bopd. If AED can produce at same rate expect next shipment ready on 4th Jan which would mean an announcement on the Monday 7th Jan.

HOWEVER

This is the average rates from their announcements

Dates Production Av bopd
7th - 11th October 110,000 22,000
12th-27th October 228,000 14,250
28th Oct-1st December 315,000 9,000

It is truly scandalous that the management of this company has been way too positive in their forecasts and way to slow to correct them and to top it off sell shares at the top of the market.

Even now they claimed that the field was/is running at 10,000 bopd yet on average on the last shipment 9,000. They were claiming 10,000 bopd on 25 days out of 35 pumping which would have given their claim 250,000 barrels produced which means the final 65,000 was produced over ten days at 6,500 bopd.

My guess is that the field appears to be still declining to a stabilised rate and is probably running sub 9,000 now hence the lack of announcing a offtake date because it would mean admitting that even now they do not know what the field is capable of!

Sorry to have to fill your christmas stocking with tales of sorrow and I would be delighted to be wrong. I still have family holding on to this stock even after pleading with them to sell at $6.50.

Icharus

 

[sfx]

To me it sounds like AED management have gone to sleep for the silly season?! No announcements or comments made on production or offtake...

It would be most interesting to see what the next announcement will hold.

Icharus your calculations look sound, and yes new year should bring some news. I wouldn't say nay or yah as yet over whether the production rates would be favourable or not, but I do know that AED are wanting to rectify their oil extraction issues, then boost the rates once these issues have been settled.

After all its better to get things right at the early stage, rather than damage the well, or create further issues, and that would not be favourable. Also could cost a lot of $$ to rectify.

Oil is a very technical business, and I don't think the market appreciates the complexity of extracting the stuff. Just have a look over their AGM presentations and other plethera of oil technical info available on the web.

But to a degree no news is good news?! I'm sitting tight.

AED is holding its ground for now. Seems to have stabilised from its earlier extreme SP climbs and declines. Probably speaking too far ahead of things, but to date, it seems stable.

 

[sfx]

Watched the trading today, and I have to say it seems that AED is being accumulated. Also on the bell there was efforts to drive down the SP. Course of Sales shows a trade at 15:59 at 4.32, then dumpers ran the SP down to 4.15 after adjustment. But I do have to say that there was also the converse side with some traders trying to drive the close price up.

Glad to see it held its ground though....

This practice is the norm for some I know, but its dirty none the less, trying to drive down the SP... I wish I had enough shares to drive down any SP at close !

 

[Santoro]

All quiet on the AED front.....there must be another off load due soon, this will provide an indication as to what kind of flows are actually occurrring. The last offtake was completed on the 3rd of December.

Previously 29 October, thus next at 10,000 bopd should mean the FPSO is near full......3-5 days away....this will no doubt impact the share price


------------------------------------------------------------------
No longer hold....

 

[jackson8]

All quiet on the AED front.....there must be another off load due soon, this will provide an indication as to what kind of flows are actually occurrring. The last offtake was completed on the 3rd of December.

Previously 29 October, thus next at 10,000 bopd should mean the FPSO is near full......3-5 days away....this will no doubt impact the share price


------------------------------------------------------------------
No longer hold....

maybe after the rough ride they have had are holding out to make any announcements until they are sure that there is something postitive to tell the market . with oil price heading north lets hope it is soon and good as have had to hold since purchasing at $7 on way down

 

[sfx]

maybe after the rough ride they have had are holding out to make any announcements until they are sure that there is something postitive to tell the market . with oil price heading north lets hope it is soon and good as have had to hold since purchasing at $7 on way down

Exactamondo - most definitely agree with your statement. Good gains recently, however, I do expect this to fluctuate until news comes through...

But I do still believe many are accumulating, and news will determine where this goes... fingers crossed for this new year and to start off on a good note.

 

[jet328]

All quiet on the AED front.....there must be another off load due soon, this will provide an indication as to what kind of flows are actually occurrring. The last offtake was completed on the 3rd of December.

AED have already off-loaded on Dec 21. It was in Reuters. They did say the works would take some time(3 months from memory), so we won't know for a while yet

Someone likes them the last few days

Cheers

 

[Aargh!]

ASX Announcement
10 January 2008
Project Update and Strategic Review
Introduction
AED owns, on a 100% basis, a highly valuable portfolio including production, near
production, development and exploration assets. This announcement includes a
project update and advice on a strategic review.
Puffin NE1 - Update
• The next crude oil offtake from the Front Puffin FPSO is expected to occur
around mid January 2008, notwithstanding minor interruptions to shipping
schedules due to recent regional cyclone activities.
• To date AED has produced over 900,000 barrels of high quality Tapis oil.
• Reservoir simulations calibrated on the recent production data from Puffin-7
and Puffin-8 are consistent with AED’s previously published reserves. This work
indicates that the lower than expected production levels are due to factors
localised to the well bore and not to the reservoir in general.
• During the commissioning phase production levels have fluctuated daily. The
range of daily production rates over the past month has been 6000 to more
than 10,000 bopd (barrels of oil per day) as a consequence of the testing of gas
lift and changes in the control system over this period. Planning for
rectification of commissioning phase production issues is advanced and in line
with earlier announcements, including the engagement of external technical
experts in the field of horizontal well bore drilling and completion
optimisation.
• Independent advice received to date suggests that production being lower than
initially forecast is due to wellbore impairment most likely caused by drilling
and completion related factors. These factors include the prolonged drilling of
the horizontal well sections (and subsequent static pre-production periods)
that may have led to the blocking of a number of sand screens possibly
exacerbated by chemicals associated with the polymer-based drilling mud. In
addition to remedial works to be undertaken, establishment of the source of
these factors should assist in reducing the likelihood of these issues arising in
future well completions.
• Planning continues on the Puffin NE1 six well program (4 additional wells), with
the preparation for the drilling of Puffin-11 production well (bi-lateral) likely
for mid 2008. This is anticipated to increase production by an initial increment
of 20,000 bopd (declining in accordance with a normal depletion profile). AED
has two drilling options available within the next 12 months.
Page 2 of 3
Puffin SW - Update
• Recent analysis of the Puffin-10 well results has provided significant new
geological data in relation to the Puffin South West (SW) region, which
continues to support the planned Puffin SW development and has also provided
new areas of oil in place in the region.
• The Puffin-10 drilling also identified an unexpected untested updip LK (lower)
sandstone reservoir which potentially contains an estimated 30MMbbl OIIP
unrisked which is in addition to the OIIP estimates of 3 to 26 MMbbl in the LK
sandstone previously published from Puffin-9 drilling.
• Also, geological modelling suggests that the UK (upper) sandstone ranges from
6 to 9 metres in thickness and the corresponding Oil Initially In Place (OIIP)
estimates range from 15 to 80 MMbbl.
• Analysis of the recent drilling data indicates that Puffin SW region has the
potential to be a contiguous oil field in the UK sands spanning from Puffin-2 to
Puffin-9 and across to Puffin-10.
• Based on the significant potential confirmed by the Puffin-10 well results and
recent analysis, AED continues to undertake work on the development plan for
the Puffin SW region.
Potential Developments
AED has a significant range of potential projects including:
• Puffin SW development, as mentioned above;
• Puffin NE2 development, with potential upside OIIP of 24 MMbbl as a likely tieback
development to Puffin NE1 producing area;
• Talbot field development, based on the OIIP estimate of 21 MMbbl and a
projected 15,000 bopd (initial) development with a 2-3 year production life;
and
• Additional exploration and appraisal of a range of significant leads and
prospects with total unrisked OIIP of 250 MMbbl.
These provide an extensive suite of development and exploration opportunities for
the company.
As previously announced, AED is negotiating for additional production processing
capacity through the leasing of an additional FPSO, the MV1 FPSO. AED is undertaking
scenario analysis in order to optimise development plans having regard for the
potential capacity increases, the drilling slot options and the availability of funding.
Strategic Review
AED owns, on a 100% basis, a highly valuable portfolio of assets including production,
near production, development and exploration leads and prospects. The company has
been approached by a number of Australian and international parties who have
recognised this and who are interested in participating in AED’s Puffin and Talbot
assets.
AED has sustained positive cashflow, but in order to be able to pursue its significant
opportunities as expeditiously as possible, the company requires additional funding.
Page 3 of 3
AED has appointed Macquarie to undertake a strategic review on behalf of AED.
Macquarie is advising AED on ways in which the company may achieve its strategic
objectives and will hold discussions with parties interested in participating in AED’s
Assets.
It should be noted that details of approaches received to date and of the strategic
review are confidential.

 

[jimski]

The announcement seems to be rather more carefully worded than some of the previous ones but I take it to be positve overall. AED is working through the production problems and thankfully the overall resevoir estimate is not downgraded.

I am interested to know what others make of the last paragraph mentioning outside parties wanting to participate. Merger? JV? Takeover? What is written between the lines there?

 

[chops_a_must]

Strategic Review
AED owns, on a 100% basis, a highly valuable portfolio of assets including production,
near production, development and exploration leads and prospects. The company has
been approached by a number of Australian and international parties who have
recognised this and who are interested in participating in AED’s Puffin and Talbot
assets.
AED has sustained positive cashflow, but in order to be able to pursue its significant
opportunities as expeditiously as possible, the company requires additional funding.
Page 3 of 3
AED has appointed Macquarie to undertake a strategic review on behalf of AED.
Macquarie is advising AED on ways in which the company may achieve its strategic
objectives and will hold discussions with parties interested in participating in AED’s
Assets.
It should be noted that details of approaches received to date and of the strategic
review are confidential.[/I]

Nice attempted management ramp.

I can't remember where I wrote it, but I said that they may be looking at a cap raising.

Spoke to an engineering supervisor working on the project a few weeks back, he wasn't very complimentary. And quit in disgust. From another poster on another site, it appears as if water is leaking out of one of the well holes. Which is consistent with what I heard, and what they are disclosing.

There is still absolutely no reason to hold this IMO.

 

[Aargh!]

Spoke to an engineering supervisor working on the project a few weeks back, he wasn't very complimentary. And quit in disgust. From another poster on another site, it appears as if water is leaking out of one of the well holes. Which is consistent with what I heard, and what they are disclosing.

Hi chops,

Did the engineering supervisor quit due to management issues? Or due to technical disagreements or a fundamental error regarding the viability of the well?

Cheers

 

[sfx]

From what I've read my thoughts are:

* They've completed a lot of analysis, which is prudent considering that they wouldn't want to jeopardise the whole operation;

* Quality is meeting expectations - high grade Tapis;

* More work is required to stabilise and optimise NE1 production - and yes figures are down from their expectations/calculations, but its early days for production - ie, technical issues with the local well bore, not with the reservoir;

* The reserve figures are still current;

* The SW is still a go, albeit delayed due to the issues encountered with their drilling;

* As many media commentaries speculated before, technical difficulties with the SW will mean further refinancing. But should production continue and be optimised, then this will be 'softened';

All in all this is an intermediate announcement, with nothing really new to add, with perhaps just an attempt to clarify earlier announcements. As they have in the past been scorned for their announcement ambiguity.

I expect the next announcement over the offtake will not provide any ease of mind to shareholders, as the timings can't really be judged by any credible calculations, due to the testing, Xmas & NY period just past.

If I remember correctly from their previous announcements it will take some months for them to stabilise / optimise production. I am sure that we all await the day when they stabilise / optimise production rates, and announce it without any caveats. <remains to be seen>

But do remember Rome was not built in a day, and with AED this is certainly also the case. Love it or hate AED, I think analysts consensus of HOLD is justifiable until they stabilise production. I know some are even going are far as saying this is a good buy.

Do your own research. Cheers for hearing me out....

 

[Aargh!]

But do remember Rome was not built in a day, and with AED this is certainly also the case. Love it or hate AED, I think analysts consensus of HOLD is justifiable until they stabilise production. I know some are even going are far as saying this is a good buy.

I'd agree with a hold recommendation for AED at the moment however I would be wary of the advice going as far as saying this is a good buy.

While the commissioning/testing/rectifying phase has been producing between 6,000-10,000 bopd further deterioration of the well would be punishing on the SP especially as AED is currently a one well wonder till mid 2008.

AED is still a high risk holding and has some big hurdles to jump. Last but not least the management has been less than impressive... Who wears golf hats to AGM's?

 

[chops_a_must]

Hi chops,

Did the engineering supervisor quit due to management issues? Or due to technical disagreements or a fundamental error regarding the viability of the well?

Cheers

The former two. Technical disagreements and management issues. Apparently he has been chasing ass, for want of a better word, since the FPSO was in dry dock in Singapore being refitted for correction of problems (Post Feb last year). They apparently refused to spend any money replacing sub standard parts, and have continually gone with the cheapest options on everything. Which has obviously led to some serious failures.

It seemed quite clear to me that he didn't believe their problems could be fixed with the management they had, and the paths they had continued to take. Even after they knew the well was failing. So I guess that gives you an indication of the possibility of problems being rectified. In my mind, not very likely...

 

[laurie]

Takeover coming sooner than later maybe according to the new Business Foxtel Channel they seemed to think that's why Mac bank is in there

cheers laurie

 

[chops_a_must]

Takeover coming sooner than later maybe according to the new Business Foxtel Channel they seemed to think that's why Mac bank is in there

cheers laurie

From memory Mac Bank had a big role to play in the rights issues about 5.20 or so I think. So, they are probably under water and trying to exert some pressure.

 

[sfx]

Well to be honest I wouldn't put a BUY recommendation myself - too much volatility and also accompanied with some risk. Could give someone heart problems watching this one !

As per the previous posts by others, I'd go further to say I see a farm-in with someone who has more experience and backed up by cash. Cash is king, but experience is also required in this game.

Macquarie Equity Capital Markets was indeed involved in the Unsecured Notes Offering, as Lead Manager and they also exercised their right to purchase an additional $10mill of the unsecured notes under the offer. So they have a vested interest, and would get paid never the less. So there's some big boys interested in seeing this through....

 

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

AED ... will be alert for more positive news, later this month, as
2 time cycles come out to play:

25-28012008 ... 2 positive cycles ... financial details of January offtake???

However, February/March will likely bring some negative sentiment for AED:

21-25022008 ... 2 cycles ... negative spotlight on AED

2702-10032008 ... underlying negative sentiment = flat trading ???

17-18032008 ... 2 cycles ... significant and negative news expected

19032008 ... minor and positive cycle

25032008 ... minor

04-07042008 ... minor news expected

09042008 ... minor

18-21042008 ... significant and positive news

24042008 ... positive spotlight on AED ...

02052008 ... positive cycle ... finances???

05052008 ... negative news expected here

19052008 ... minor cycle

23-26052008 ... negative spotlight on AED

29052008 ... negative cycle ... finances???

More later .....

have a great day

paul



=====

 

[ithatheekret]

I don't normally comment on my trades in stocks , I will discuss the stock no problems , but in brief this was a great shorting stock from $6.22 down .

Anyone that caught the $9.00 region is a champion .