BUR - Burleson Energy

[cicak_kupang]

Yeah, i had a listen to the radio announcement........must have some fissure/pressure that they struck to pull out when they did.....

I wonder if they will have to go back a frac stimutalte the first 2 wells for better producing rates, as if my menmory serves me wright, the first 2 wells where drilled, and hooked srtraight up to production......no frac stim????

 

[Wysiwyg]

Yeah, i had a listen to the radio announcement........must have some fissure/pressure that they struck to pull out when they did.....

I wonder if they will have to go back a frac stimutalte the first 2 wells for better producing rates, as if my menmory serves me wright, the first 2 wells where drilled, and hooked srtraight up to production......no frac stim????

Rocket 2 & Jet 3 (champions) don`t need stimulating with the "high degree of local fracturing".

AKG will determine Yeguas future and reading back on some initial reports the situation is described here.

Champions area wells generally produce at higher initial rates and recover more gas than wells in Burleson County. However, the Champions gas contains very little condensate.

The Austin Chalk is a naturally fractured reservoir with a dominant set of vertical fractures trending northeast

I hope this clears up any artificial stimulation questions also i have corrected the report error in regard to drilling fluid clean up and not condensate.Thank you.

During November 2007 the well produced an average of 3.8 million cubic feet of gas per day and 280 barrels of drilling fluid per day.

 

[absolut-advance]

close to 3 million per year from Rocket 2 & Yegua already in place.

JET 3 flagged as a strong well could drop another 2 million onto the bottom line.

bringing revenue to 5 million++

Currently 5 million in cash at bank

Market Cap 15 million

Marlin 1 Next to drill and many more to follow.

Market Currently valuing Rocket 2 & Yegua cash flows and the upcoming 25 drill target programme along with the 25,000 acres of texas lease and partnership at "just 10 million" considering the cash at bank

P/E of 2 anyone

Is Although likely...If not with JET 3 then marlin....

The share price has under performed the charted All ords, yet fundamentally the company is outperforming the average and elite.

AA

 

[Dukey]

Yup. - I agree things are looking better all the time.
you'd have to expect a rerating of the SP at some point - but given the lack of attention compared to something like CVN, it may take a REALLY good hole to make folks in the mkt sit up and take notice. Lets hope JET3 is good enough to draw some attention....

-e

 

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

BUR ... will be alert for some news this week,
which may be enough to lift BUR off its lows:


17-18122007 ... spike ahead of anticipated news ???

20122007 ... minor news expected

21-24122007 ... minor and positive cycle

02-03012008 ... 2 minor and negative cycles here

08012008 ... minor and positive news expected

18-21012008 ... minor and positive

24012008 ... minor and negative cycle

15022008 ... minor and positive ... finance-related??

18-19022008 ... negative spotlight on BUR

03-04031008 ... minor and negative cycle

12-14032008 ... 2 cycles ... significant negative news???

20032008 ... positive spotlight on BUR .....

02042008 ... positive news expected here

04-07042008 ... significant and positive cycle

Updated BUR chart, below .....

happy days

paul



=====

 

[resourceboom]

.... so is anyone interested in Jet 3 flowing at 10.8MMCFD, with BUR @ 30%NRI? I would have thought that was an interesting number

 

[Dukey]

.... so is anyone interested in Jet 3 flowing at 10.8MMCFD, with BUR @ 30%NRI? I would have thought that was an interesting number

OK - back from chrissy hols and YES - 10.8 MMCFD @ 30% from Jet3 looks interesting to me!!

Just trying to work out what it really means to BUR... the following are some vague calculations... please check the figures for yourself... and correct me if I've messed up and forgotten something cause I'm NOT a company analyst!!!!!!!

First note : 10.8 MMCFD was recorded during testing in clean-up phase. BUR stated that the 'flow pressures continued to build during the process' - which is nice .
-the well was shut in for two weeks to remove the rig and prepare for production. So... that means we should get a more definite idea of production rates for Jet3 in the first half of Jan08. Until then we just have 10.8MMCFD to go on.

Just for the 'halibut' - lets assume Jet3 maintains production at roughly 10mmcfd.
at stated prices of about US$7k per MMCF - thats about US$ 70k X 30% BUR interest = 21k US$ per day to BUR... from Jet3 alone.

By the same process - the earlier two holes amount to about US$9k per day to BUR.

So ... IF Jet3 maintains the indicated level of 10MMCFD when it comes onto production in early Jan ... then BUR should be pulling in about US$30k per day.
>>> X conservative 320days = 9.6Mill US$/yr
= roughly 10.7 Mill AUD$ per year.

and IF JET3 production falls to say 5MMCFD ... (and BUR have reported that these holes tend to produce strongly at first and then stabilise at a lower level)... then BUR should be pulling in around US$19k per day.>> at least 6.7M AUD$ / yr.

***REMEMBER this is at possible future production rates !! they are not doing it yet... and most of the YTD has been exploration expenditure with little income. But either way, it does look good for the future does it not?

So... what do you guys/gals reckon. Is Jet3 gonna be the hole to get BUR some attention in the market?
?
??
???

 

[Dukey]

Following on from previous post (& "bump" )

... does anyone know how many BUR options are out there??
I seem to recall there are about 90mill regular shares, but dunno how many options.
I'd like to work out possible 'eps' figures from what we know about BUR at the moment....

anyone??....

 

[mick z]

hi dukey,

there are 41.5 million option and 93 million heads

good luck with your calc's

regards mick..

 

[Dukey]

hi dukey,

there are 41.5 million option and 93 million heads

good luck with your calc's

regards mick..

OK - thanks for that mick...

Primary EPS (existing shares only) - based on future sustained JET3 production of just 5mmcfd - would be in the ball park of 7.2 cents per share (AU$).

Fully diluted EPS (heads and options) - based on the same assumptions would be around 5 cps.

IF JET3 continues to produce at around 10mmcfd -->
Primary EPS ~ 11.5cps
Fully diluted EPS ~ 8cps

Again - remember these figures are just possible future earnings based on possible future outcomes.... they are not FY07-08 averages - they take no account of exploration and development expenditure... BUT equally - they take no account of possible extra income from the holes about to be drilled .

At the moment - the BUR heads are trading @ 16.5 cps.

So, while the jury is out on Jet3 until she's on production and the figures are in... I think BUR holders are looking good... hopefully the next company update will shed more light on how they are travelling and grab some attention to give the SP a much needed (and IMHO much deserved) kick along!!!

 

[resourceboom]

Scooby on HC requested a map of the champions area, so here is one.

Sorry for being rough, and its an extension of the original map I had with Rocket 2 and Jet 3 (as you can see in the pic, I was hoping for 15 & 20MMCFD, never mind)

Marlin 1 in the top right corner, I'd be happy with 10MMCFD. Good news that its already drilling.

& note: The viking 2 well was apparently targeting a different reservoir according to AKG.

Good luck all!

 

[Wysiwyg]

Thanks for the website resourceboom.
I lean towards a production rate of +3 mmcf/d for Jet 3 which is an excellent result for such a small company to have a piece of.Marlin now in play, hmmm.

I thought 3 producers before end of year and that is unlikely now but who cares, the bigger picture is still unfolding.

In this particular plot there is consistent production at profitable flow rates so Jet will likely do the same.
Building a regular bank of producers will come about faster than one can forget about them.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Ol` mate at 15 cents got his fill on the day this well report comes out.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080116/pdf/00803404.pdf

Well 3: Jet 3, Champions Area, Grimes County (BUR WI 37.5%)

Gas production and sales commenced on 11 January 2008 from the Jet Unit 3 well at an initial rate of around 8 mmcfd of gas. This is a strong flow rate as the well is in a clean-up phase (expelling drilling fluids as well as gas).

Higher % in Marlin too.

 

[Dukey]

Nice news today for BUR. : 8mmcfd is towards the higher end of my expectations.
So BUR is now pulling in something like:
Jet3 ~ $17000 /day (Aud)
earlier holes ~ $10000/day (Aud)

Total something like AUD$27 000 per day - after tax (as stated in announcement).

with more to come...
it's all good.... except the annoying fact that these announcements have to come in such a sh#tty week for the ASX.

 

[resourceboom]

That sure was some sweet timing, he'd had it at 15.5c for a while, and it filled hours before some good news came out. I'm sure at some stage in 2008 we'll be looking back and say "Man I wish I got 2 mill shares at 15.5c like that lucky bugger"

Ol` mate at 15 cents got his fill on the day this well report comes out.

 

[rykerz]

A newbie question, seeing how well the company is starting to do the SP seems to remain the same, would this be mainly due to the market not noticing BUR? Or would there be any other reason?

 

[Dukey]

A newbie question, seeing how well the company is starting to do the SP seems to remain the same, would this be mainly due to the market not noticing BUR? Or would there be any other reason?

Rykerz - that's a damn good question!! and I really don't understand it myself. My 'feeling' is that :
1. BUR is a small cap (about $16M at the mo) and sometimes they seem to take a while to grab attention from other stocks that may be 'jumping'.
2. especially so in the fluky market of recent times with different commodities booming, to be replaced by the next big thing, and then US market problems etc.

Not sure what it will take for BUR to start jumping - maybe some institutional $$ - but with more oil and gas with every hole - I reckon it's gotta happen sometime. Hopefully sooner rather than later!! I'm happy to hold until that day with this one.

 

[spidermonkey084]

This is crazy BUR are in the best possition they have ever been in yet we are seeing the lowest prices .145 the market is very hard to judge these days...... i am starting to wonder if this Jet 3 has made no effect what is there left to make the price jump?

 

[Agentm]

spmonkey

i dont know if the jet flow rates are particularily brilliant.. the wells are expensive and the giddings wells traditionally have a 40% decline after 4 months, and then they dont usually hold, they usually drop and drop and drop..... so maybe the figures are just not impressive enough..

the other thought i had on the giddings is that it has some 3700 wells in it already, leaving only tiny pockets to drill in on any given lease.. in the presentations they show the leases and where the wells go, when i look at the leases i see hundreds of horizontals all next to each other. i guess i look at the leases differently to other investors, i studied BUR for a while, but i couldnt get excited with what i saw, even when the sp went through the roof i couldnt get excited about it... take 50 paces in any direction and your literally standing on top of another horizontal..

i hope they get things happening, believe me when i say i know what its like to be sitting and waiting,, O&G is full of long delays and more delays and changes and delays... high risk and high reward..

 

[spidermonkey084]

spmonkey

i dont know if the jet flow rates are particularily brilliant.. the wells are expensive and the giddings wells traditionally have a 40% decline after 4 months, and then they dont usually hold, they usually drop and drop and drop..... so maybe the figures are just not impressive enough..

the other thought i had on the giddings is that it has some 3700 wells in it already, leaving only tiny pockets to drill in on any given lease.. in the presentations they show the leases and where the wells go, when i look at the leases i see hundreds of horizontals all next to each other. i guess i look at the leases differently to other investors, i studied BUR for a while, but i couldnt get excited with what i saw, even when the sp went through the roof i couldnt get excited about it... take 50 paces in any direction and your literally standing on top of another horizontal..

i hope they get things happening, believe me when i say i know what its like to be sitting and waiting,, O&G is full of long delays and more delays and changes and delays... high risk and high reward..

I guess i was expecting the same thing that happen when Jet 2 i think it was opened and we went to about .21 in 1 day.