AED - AED Oil

[chops_a_must]

Your comments are border line libel, and I am surprised that the Administrators of this forum are letting you get away with this.

Of course maybe you have a case, and if so then present this point-by-point with evidence.

I agree that management of AED have a case to answer for, but I feel their only issue is being too bullish on their statements. They should have been more careful, and the market has punished the stock accordingly based on the new announcements which have 'attempted' to clarify the situation. Its unfortunate that most of us are caught up with this.

Make it as you will...

Uh uh.

If you look back through this thread you will see a post after my conversation with one of the directors. They have more to answer for than just being too bullish in their statements.

There are issues surrounding regulations on continuous disclosure here, which they are undoubtedly in breech of. And if ASIC actually did its job, I'm sure they would be in trouble.

 

[sfx]

Uh uh.

If you look back through this thread you will see a post after my conversation with one of the directors. They have more to answer for than just being too bullish in their statements.

There are issues surrounding regulations on continuous disclosure here, which they are undoubtedly in breech of. And if ASIC actually did its job, I'm sure they would be in trouble.

I agree with your comments here. Someone else stated of why the ASIC police didn't jump in earlier. There's way too much volatility and AED have been lacking in disclosure.

However, I still think the fundamentals are there. But you do have to go by what info is available, and that has to improve.

You'll also see a previous post I put up earlier, attempting to survey peeps here over AED's marketing/announcements.....

 

[doctorj]

Your comments are border line libel, and I am surprised that the Administrators of this forum are letting you get away with this.

FYI, whilst chops is getting a little emotive, he's given plenty of justification for his opinion. My personal belief is the big problem with AED is the market are largely uninformed of the nature of the situation and thus have difficulty in determining fair value.

Also, my understanding of the term 'libel' is that it is defamation of a person. I don't think it's possible to defame a company...

 

[sfx]

FYI, whilst chops is getting a little emotive, he's given plenty of justification for his opinion. My personal belief is the big problem with AED is the market are largely uninformed of the nature of the situation and thus have difficulty in determining fair value.

Also, my understanding of the term 'libel' is that it is defamation of a person. I don't think it's possible to defame a company...

I'm not disagreeing with anything about the nature of their comms - see my earlier post.

As for the term libel - you are correct, and I was referring to his comments about the directors etc.

Everyone has a right to air their thoughts, but I think its going a bit far in calling the AED directors liars. The forums shouldn't be used to ramp up or down any stock. I think my comments have been balanced, and at no time I have I said or even meant to imply that people shouldn't sell...

Peace out and in the end time will tell !

 

[AED Blunder]

This is by far the worst investment decision that I have ever made. Of course, anyone here is entitled to articulate any negative and disappointing thoughts and we should not be lectured in that regard. It is not just that the company 'underestimated' the various challenges in bringing the oil to the surface, there are many other managerial issues that are substandard for a listed entity. As I have previously pointed out, communications are one sided, with the only option being writing to them via ordinary mail (and not receiving replies) or calling by phone (and being told that no one is available right now). Another 10% down 'as I speak'.

 

[VViCKiD]

Another punishing day for AED... This is really getting nasty !!!
The volatility on this one is off the scale !!

I am starting to really hate this stock !

 

[yawomanjas]

If we see low prices...could see a potential takeover....better management could be what this company needs...but I'm holding firm...still think the fundamentals are sound...

But fair go on the chairman..he did have surgery the other week...he's due back this week...hopefully fix up the mess.

 

[VViCKiD]

Another day another beating........


This is getting ugly!!! U can't believe it...it's in free faLL!!

 

[Fed23]

I'm thinking since I've lost so much, when it gets lower to top up to make my average share price lower.

But then again, it might continue to drop more after I do a top up, but it doesn't look good so far.

If it keeps this trend up, it looks like the company would be worth less.

 

[VViCKiD]

I am thinking the same. I got in at 4.80 for 5000 units. Currently looks like there's some support at 3.50... but who knows ??

 

[tronic72]

Hmmm,

You guys will hate me. I search for posts like this. I've been thinking of getting in on this stock for a while and now seems like a good time.

I'm no economist but I can't see anything wrong with this company. Can ANYONE explain WHY it has dropped so far is it being over sold?? Or was it simply overvalued only 2 months ago 11.4 - 3.88 is a masssssssivvvveee drop over such a short period.

 

[dj_420]

Hmmm,

You guys will hate me. I search for posts like this. I've been thinking of getting in on this stock for a while and now seems like a good time.

I'm no economist but I can't see anything wrong with this company. Can ANYONE explain WHY it has dropped so far is it being over sold?? Or was it simply overvalued only 2 months ago 11.4 - 3.88 is a masssssssivvvveee drop over such a short period.

There is actually a reason behind the slide in sp (as there usually is). They have downgraded the production from 30 000 barrels to an optomistic 20 000, currently at 10 000 (or so they say).

The water cut has also increased in the field, increasing complexity of the field.

They have walked away from SW sector which was said to have held a 40 million barrels resource.

They may be oversold but they may also be fairly priced given current situation, has gone from market darling to market dud.

 

[sfx]

They have walked away from SW sector which was said to have held a 40 million barrels resource.

Correction for your comment above - they have NOT walked away, but merely put a hold on the further development of the SW till they complete more analysis work.

This was stated in earlier announcements (28th Nov) and everyone here knows about their comments over the area being "geologically more complex than originally thought" and further to that "The well encountered more complex geology than expected, two, additional sidetracks were drilled, with the aim of better understanding the geology."

The LOI arrangements for the Modec Venture FPSO are still in place, the reserve estimations are still current. Its just going to take longer to appraise the development, and get to production.

Well thats what is hoped. Only time will tell.

Thoughts and opinions are most welcome, and lecturing is not what I am on about, but moreso keeping to the facts, rather than distorting them.

Cheers all.

 

[ithatheekret]

The figures alone show that the a SW area is still part of the math in the NPV , product when filtered will still be good for heating oils and kero at worst . I just disagree with the values projected and the abandonment calculations .

 

[rederob]

AED is in freefall.
It's still going down.
I hold a very small parcel, and might buy more if it dips under $2.95 where it should get strong technical support.
Fundamentally the situation of the stock and its true reserves and resources must be seen as cloudy, at best.
If the producing well starts to crank significantly upwards of 10k/day on a rising trend, then I would buy more in a flash at present prices.
Otherwise the stock is showing a close resemblance to Paladin, albeit without a base having formed from its present carnage.

 

[dj_420]

Correction for your comment above - they have NOT walked away, but merely put a hold on the further development of the SW till they complete more analysis work.

This was stated in earlier announcements (28th Nov) and everyone here knows about their comments over the area being "geologically more complex than originally thought" and further to that "The well encountered more complex geology than expected, two, additional sidetracks were drilled, with the aim of better understanding the geology."

The LOI arrangements for the Modec Venture FPSO are still in place, the reserve estimations are still current. Its just going to take longer to appraise the development, and get to production.

Well thats what is hoped. Only time will tell.

Thoughts and opinions are most welcome, and lecturing is not what I am on about, but moreso keeping to the facts, rather than distorting them.

Cheers all.

Ok, so I may have over emphasised the point BUT that statement to me seems like it is a great lead up to stating that the geology of the sand formations is far too complex to warrant production.

From the disclosure issues this company has been facing I think it is fairly disgusting how they keep the market updates.

They often seem to elude to the point and then accept it in an ann further down the track.

For instance before production started they were stating it would be in June, then they said there may be some delays before finally coming clean and deciding Oct would be when they would start production.

Look at where disclosure has got them so far!

 

[chops_a_must]

What a whipsaw.

It came within a whisker of my stop yesterday, which at this stage looks lucky. It now looks as though sellers have slowed up below $4 and buyers are having to chase.

Always been a great trading share this one, due to the volatility. Pity about the company itself though.

 

[michael_selway]

AED is in freefall.
It's still going down.
I hold a very small parcel, and might buy more if it dips under $2.95 where it should get strong technical support.
Fundamentally the situation of the stock and its true reserves and resources must be seen as cloudy, at best.
If the producing well starts to crank significantly upwards of 10k/day on a rising trend, then I would buy more in a flash at present prices.
Otherwise the stock is showing a close resemblance to Paladin, albeit without a base having formed from its present carnage.

Hi Red, how low did this one go recently?

Might be a good buy

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -18.2 97.4 167.3 170.1
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Date: 4/12/2007
Author: Stephen Wisenthal
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 23
Australian investors are becoming nervous about the future prospects of AED Oil.The company's early performances were welcomed by investors, who pushed thestock up to $A11.40 in October 2007. However, news that oil production at thePuffin project may be delayed has pushed the share price down considerably.Earlier delays were accepted by investors with little fuss, however the latestannouncement has caused the shares to drop to $A4.21 as of 3 December 2007.Despite the fall, some analysts still believe the stock has value

Date: 3/12/2007
Author: Nigel Wilson
Source: The Australian --- Page: 33
Australian-listed oil group AED Oil has managed to retain a stable share price.The company is under pressure to produce strong results after rumours that itsPuffin project is failing. AED is expected to announce that a second shipment ofoil will be transported from the Puffin project shortly. Chairman David Dix hasbeen absent from the role for some time due to an operation, however he is dueback shortly. His return is expected to buoy the group's morale. AED sharesclosed at $A4.30 on 30 November 2007

Date: 22/11/2007
Author: Jamie Freed
Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 31
AED Oil lost the confidence of the market after it revealed problems with itsmain projects. The start of production at the Australian oil company'sPuffin field off the Northern Territory lifted its share price to a record$A11.40 on 17 October 2007. However, it has announced that its Puffin North-Eastfield will not reach its forecast peak production. It has also suspendeddevelopment of its Puffin South-West field, as it is more geologically complexthan thought. On 21 November, AED's share price closed down by $A1.30 at$A5.80

Date: 22/11/2007
Author: Barry FitzGerald
Source: The Age --- Page: B3
Shares in Melbourne company AED Oil have been negatively affected by aproduction shortfall at its Puffin oil field in the Timor Sea. The stockdeclined $A1.30 to $A5.80 on 21 November 2007 after confirmation at thegroup's AGM that established production from the initial development of thefield will likely be 20,000 barrels a day, rather than 30,000 barrels a day asforecast. The stock had traded to a peak of $A11.40 on 17 October 2007. The AGMwas told the company was managing good profitability despite the lowerproduction, because of record oil prices

 

[prawn_86]

Might be a good buy

Personally i would never buy a stock that has so much negative sentiment surrounding the management or disclosure.

Thats just me, but reliable and trustworthy management is one of the most important factors in my (long term) stock choices

 

[laurie]

Might be a good buy

Personally i would never buy a stock that has so much negative sentiment surrounding the management or disclosure.

Thats just me, but reliable and trustworthy management is one of the most important factors in my (long term) stock choices

True for example look at COE and see how management have kept shareholders informed especially it's MD Mike Scott

cheers laurie