AED - AED Oil

[VViCKiD]

Does any one have any broker commentary on this one ? I'd say they have a lot to explain after putting a buy recommendation on this one...

 

[GreatPig]

No broker commentary, but a nice chart

Next support looks to be around the $3.50 level to me. I dumped mine on 21st after it broke my stop at around $6.80. Normally that would mean it would be back around $10 by now , but in this case it was obviously the right choice.

GP

 

[dj_420]

DJ MARKET TALK: UBS Cuts AED Oil Target To A$6.35, Keeps Buy

2156 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS cuts AED Oil (AED.AU) target to A$6.35 from
A$9.82, says Puffin-10 unlikely to be made into a producer, AED now considering a
fallback position to reenter Puffin-9. Keeps Buy rating on stock but stresses speculative
nature of shares given AED's considerable operational risk. "We also see
potential for a Puffin SW resource downgrade. After the recent poor performance of Puffin
Main and the continual production downgrades, we think the market has become suspicious
of AED's future production goals," analyst says. AED last A$4.48. (LMF)

Contact us in Sydney. 61 2 8235 2950;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 28, 2007 16:56 ET (21:56 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Thursday 29 November 2007 08:56:45:660 AEST

Target slashed by UBS, seems to be bouncing now, but everyone is expecting a resource downgrade at the producing area.

 

[AED Blunder]

I bought this stock after watching a television interview between the CEO of this company and Alan Kohler who presents the finance news on the nightly ABC news program. I also conducted some research before placing my order for 45,000 shares at around $11. I am absolutely devastated about the losses that I have suffered in just a few short weeks. AED has no Email contact address published on their website and they are not replying to my hard copy correspondence either. Whenever you call them, there is never anyone available to discuss this spectacular development. When you finally receive a return call, it is via a mobile phone with extremely poor reception and you are repeatedly referred to your financial advisor. Take a look at the credentials of the various management members on their website and then review this with the reality of this financial disaster. From my own experience, I can only compare this to another company that I had invested in some time ago. Clinical Cell Culture (CCE), formed and managed by Australian of the Year, Fiona Woods experienced a similar free fall. What a group of incomptent Managers!!!!!!!!

 

[AED Blunder]

Also take a look at the 'credentials' of the various management team members (e.g. extensive experience in the resources industry, two decades of experience in the oil and gas industry, over 30 years experience in the petroleum industry, having held various technical positions with Shell International Petroleum, and senior management positions with BHP Billiton Limited, including member on the executive committee of BHP Petroleum Limited now the Australian School of Petroleum where he is currently Professor (Santos Chair) - and the bragging goes on). To top things off, the CEO attends the recent AGM in what looked like a golf cap. How much respect do these people have for their shareholders? What a very sad example of an Australian company that could have been shining in the current climate of high oil demand and associated prices.

 

[ithatheekret]

Even with the falls , I thought it was expensive , I don't know how it got so high , even if it was a technically pushed ........

It reminds me of VCR in some ways , big pushes with bigger falls .

 

[nikkothescorpio]

Well this one is very volatile at present - clearly trading on fear and also perhaps has become a day trader target???

Left egg on my face - I bought in at $4.01 - got out at $3.73 and felt good when it hit $3.50 - however since then its rocketed back to $4.25!

Why, I have no idea at all as no announcements nor support levels to be seen to my clumsy eyes.

Me thinks best to give it a while unless you're long term, brave or day trading.

 

[GreatPig]

45,000 shares at around $11

You put nearly half a mil into this one stock???

I would hope you therefore have a multi-million dollar portfolio, and didn't just dump all your capital into one share. Even so, it's a good reason why you need to monitor these volatile stocks fairly closely and have a loss exit point determined in advance.

I entered at $7.17 with specific reasons why I thought this might head back up again (given in an earlier message in this thread). As soon as those reasons were invalidated, by the price dropping below the lowest level that I would expect if those reasons were right, I sold them. My exit price was $6.25 for a 12.8% loss - or 1.26% of my trading capital at the time. If I could have got out at my intended exit price, it would have only been 0.5% of my trading capital.

Cheers,
GP

 

[laurie]

I'm surprised why the stock cops did not ask a please explain from AED why the drop in share price ......would have made interesting reading

cheers laurie

 

[VViCKiD]

I agree... AED has fallen ~50% in a matter of 1 month !!!
That is ridiculous !!!! It was almost as bad as Rams home loans ...
Looks like i will have to ride this one out...

 

[laurie]

If this was orchestrated by someone to accumulate at the lowest possible price and if next week we see it going north then I'm ringing ASIC there is more to this and my suspicion is someone in the know,all of my comments are JMHO

cheers laurie

 

[chops_a_must]

I have quite a different perspective. In the short term, I am looking to buy this.

I have a large amount of these free carried, and they used to be quite a substantial holding. I'm sorry, but I don't feel sorry for anyone losing on this. Management were known to be lying out their a*ses well before any of this blew up. I posted about it 2 or 3 times in here, but I don't think anyone took any notice. There was also a big length of time in which to take profits.

My reasons for this being a very short term buy are this: a big hammer off a downside price target with stopping volume. If the position of this stock wasn't so precarious, I would have bought today. But I would like to see what happens Monday. I suspect a suckers rally. I really don't like this strategy, but there is no better place to learn it than here, where I'm not going to lose much because of the free carried shares. But I will be out of the lot on this trade, because I don't think AED can be in production for more than a year to be honest. If you aren't selling the next rally, I think you are kidding yourselves.

I don't think it is worth doing any sort of F/A because management once again aren't revealing anything that can be analysed. Quite criminal really.

 

[jackson8]

having re read their latest announcement realised this at end of ann.


Further, it is noted that the next offtake from the North East production facility will
be undertaken by the 30th November 2008.

i was hoping this a mistake as they had previously ann.

The next offtake of approximately 315,000 barrels is scheduled for 29
November 2007. All systems should be fully commissioned and equipment matters
resolved in the short term. A review of production levels will take place following
this.
Trevor

 

[nomore4s]

I have quite a different perspective. In the short term, I am looking to buy this.

My reasons for this being a very short term buy are this: a big hammer off a downside price target with stopping volume. If the position of this stock wasn't so precarious, I would have bought today. But I would like to see what happens Monday. I suspect a suckers rally. I really don't like this strategy, but there is no better place to learn it than here, where I'm not going to lose much because of the free carried shares. But I will be out of the lot on this trade, because I don't think AED can be in production for more than a year to be honest. If you aren't selling the next rally, I think you are kidding yourselves.

I agree with this Chops, I think we will some sort of short lived rally now, with todays action showing some signs of support coming in. Will post a chart and more info on my best guess on how things might unfold from here when I get home tonight.

 

[yawomanjas]

Hi guys..

I am also a battered share holder of the company...but I can't honestly say I blame them for some of the delay in production rate and difficulty with Puffin 10 and SW. These things happen and unfortunately, investing in shares u take the risk...but LONG TERM this one is a compelling bargain at these prices...their PE 2009 is 2 at present..I will be very surprised if they can't make something out of SW...I expect production to be increased on NE next year....if u have bad news...in this envrionment, u should be battered...and no doubt it has....no-one in this environment is going to take on risky stocks such as AED but given time..it'll prove us right...

 

[prawn_86]

Hi guys..

I am also a battered share holder of the company...but I can't honestly say I blame them for some of the delay in production rate and difficulty with Puffin 10 and SW. These things happen and unfortunately, investing in shares u take the risk...but LONG TERM this one is a compelling bargain at these prices...their PE 2009 is 2 at present..I will be very surprised if they can't make something out of SW...I expect production to be increased on NE next year....if u have bad news...in this envrionment, u should be battered...and no doubt it has....no-one in this environment is going to take on risky stocks such as AED but given time..it'll prove us right...

Y

Can you please provide evidence as to why you expect production to be increased, and why it represents good value, aside from the PE ratio (which does seem quite low, although i havnt done any research).

Also it would be easier to read if you seperated your paragraphs with spaces rather than ...

thanks

Prawn.

Welcome to ASF btw

 

[yawomanjas]

Guys 4 broker recommedation so far
1. UBS Buy Target 6.35 29/11
2. Credit Suisse Buy Target 11.00 26/11
3. Macquarie Hold 5.35 26/11
4. Deutsche Buy 12.15 22/11

I don't rely on broker recommedation much but in the short term, expect some volatility and even some lower prices..but good chance to top up..plus u guys all know the instos will get in...from todays low of 3.50 it jumped 20% to 4.30...volatile but long term..shall be good...FYI 08 PE 5.5odd...09 PE 2
EPS 78 cents 08

 

[chops_a_must]

I don't rely on broker recommedation much but in the short term, expect some volatility and even some lower prices..but good chance to top up..plus u guys all know the instos will get in...from todays low of 3.50 it jumped 20% to 4.30...volatile but long term..shall be good...FYI 08 PE 5.5odd...09 PE 2
EPS 78 cents 08

Until they come clean about reserves/ resource estimates, PE ratios are absolutely useless. Extending PE's into 09 is pointless because they may be winding things up by then.

 

[yawomanjas]

Prawn....

in the short term production will be reduced, but as they stipulate in their ann they will placing additional wells to maximise production in first half 08...

they have the reserves..I'm confident of that...

the SW, puffin 10 was a kick to the guts while we were down...but its seems to me like a temporary suspension, they just need to do more studies...

all in all, their profit wasmeant to be 210 million..but looks like it will be off for 08...but 09..if production is normalised...I'm very bullish

 

[yawomanjas]

Until they come clean about reserves/ resource estimates, PE ratios are absolutely useless. Extending PE's into 09 is pointless because they may be winding things up by then.

Yeah well the company did reiterate the reserves in their ann...its an "equipment related issue". I do honestly believe them. Again these things happen...DYOR