AED - AED Oil

[bigdog]

Today's SMH; the last item reported on page two.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/cbd/dick-pratt-buys-a-few-doughnuts/2007/11/13/1194766675765.html?page=2

No free money

AED Oil has quietly withdrawn a resolution from its coming AGM to grant chairman David Dix a healthy swag of options. Dix was due to receive 250,000 options at an exercise price of $7, conditional on reaching a key milestone of production of first oil at its Puffin well off north-western Australia.

We can only wonder if having reached that first target and it being a bit underwhelming, some didn't like the idea of granting so many options that are already in the money.

 

[kevien]

The SP is still disappointing. To make things worse,oil price also slided to $91. AED really needs a good announcement to push the price up.

 

[OBK]

unfortunately bought in at $8.75 a few days ago expecting some good news

i'm hoping the current production problems are temporary and they get up to the forecasted 30K bopd

 

[sfx]

.... i'm hoping the current production problems are temporary and they get up to the forecasted 30K bopd

And also hope that the drilling for the Puffin SW doesn't deliver any bad news. Anything bad with regards to the announcements here will only drag us all down further !

Extract of one of their announcements :

"The well is expected take approximately 55 days in total to drill and is expected to be completed by mid December. Production from Puffin-10 will be directed through the Modec Venture (MV1) FPSO. Production from Puffin SW is expected to commence in the first half of 2008."

So by the time they complete wirelog and analysis work of the cores, it will be new year by the time they make any conclusive announcement.

Given that they haven't even put a month to the commencement, things are very uncertain - hence expect more volatility with this one....

 

[greenfs]

Given the current climate the AGM in Melbourne next week should make interesting viewing & I have committed to attend along with another investor.

I am still VERY POSITIVE re the future of the current well and the long-term future of the sp.

It will be interesting to see if there may be time for + ann prior to the AGM. Probably better to hold any good news until the meeting if they can provided they are not seen to be in breach of any ASX protocols.

I will provide a post asap after the meeting provided someone has not already beaten me to it.

 

[Go Nuke]

Given the current climate the AGM in Melbourne next week should make interesting viewing & I have committed to attend along with another investor.

I am still VERY POSITIVE re the future of the current well and the long-term future of the sp.

It will be interesting to see if there may be time for + ann prior to the AGM. Probably better to hold any good news until the meeting if they can provided they are not seen to be in breach of any ASX protocols.

I will provide a post asap after the meeting provided someone has not already beaten me to it.

Thx Greensf that would be greatly appriciated.
Dont worry OBK, your not the only one that bought in at a high price
I'm not going to take a loss and I still think that oil may hit $100 yet (xmas IS just around the corner)
I'm slowly developing some patience

 

[EZZA]

picked up a small parcel at 7.20. couldn't resist after seeing if fall so hard. hopefully we have seen the worst of it.

normally don't buy into stock on the way down, i'm hoping they sort out production issues. should be much better once resolved. disappointing that we wont be cashing in so much with record oil prices with production significantly decreased.

 

[strayda11]

Ezza...

A lot of analysts are picking Oil to remain near this level for years to come...

The biggest Q I have is what they'll stabilise rates at, and is there going to be a possible downgrade to the size of the field?

I hold- and have a bigger holding again in NWE.

 

[greenfs]

I note there was a strong buy from Bailleu as a story in the financial section of the Melbourne Sunday Sun this morning.

 

[Aargh!]

I note there was a strong buy from Bailleu as a story in the financial section of the Melbourne Sunday Sun this morning.

Hi greenfs, what were the particulars of the story? Are they expecting the current teething problems to be rectified?

 

[GreatPig]

I also bought some on Wednesday for $7.17 (take that as a warning folks! ), following the hammer bar on decent volume. Wednesday also had very high volume and closed up off the low.

As well as that, it's just below the 61.8% Fib level with some support at $7 from back in August & September.

Cheers,
GP

 

[bigdog]

Is there anyone attending the AED AGM in Melbourne tomorrow?

The Annual General Meeting of the members of AED Oil Limited
Date: Wednesday 21 November 2007
Time: 10.00am Melbourne time
Location: Stamford Plaza Melbourne (Thornbury Room)
111 Little Collins Street
Melbourne
Victoria 3000

 

[GREENS]

Jumped on this today with a fairly small parcel, I think the words of brokers that BT posted a while back perfectly state the situation of AED.

Macquarie 23-Oct-07
While highlighting Puffin's upside, it warns of its high risk. Target falls from $9.94 to $9.04.

UBS 23-Oct-07
The broker still rates AED a Buy on Puffin upside, but warns this depends a lot on a successful ramp-up. Target falls from $11.48 to $11.18.

Support seems to be holding well around the $7 mark which has giving me a little bit more confidence. If this support is breached, looks like the next stop is around $5.20 (techies your views are more than welcome on this lower target). So if more bad news is to come I wouldn’t be writing off this lower target being hit, even if it is just temporary. In contrast if the next announcement is positive then we should see this start to appreciate again. Still fairly high risk until production rates can be consistently maintained at rates above 15,000BOPD.

 

[Bush Trader]

Support seems to be holding well around the $7 mark which has giving me a little bit more confidence. If this support is breached, looks like the next stop is around $5.20 (techies your views are more than welcome on this lower target). So if more bad news is to come I wouldn’t be writing off this lower target being hit, even if it is just temporary. In contrast if the next announcement is positive then we should see this start to appreciate again. Still fairly high risk until production rates can be consistently maintained at rates above 15,000BOPD.

I love a punter. Kennas call this type of trading catching "falling knives", I call it a counter trend oportunity, however unless there is worse news to come I think the intra-day low of $6.85 will hold. Refer to the chart below volumes are on the decline, which to me says a lot of "hot money" has been washed out on stop losses, or the more risk adverse have taken some of their money off the table. I think the key to trading this one is to watch any increase in volume togeether with positive or negative price action as a prelude to production announcements.


Cheers


BT

 

[greenfs]

The AGM tomorrow should make interesting viewing. I will post on anything that I think is worthwhile and not included in the announcement

 

[bigdog]

ASX ANN today for today's AGM at 10:00 AM

21/11/2007 09:12 Managing Directors Presentation - 2007 AGM
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00785343

21/11/2007 09:11 Chairman`s Address - 2007 AGM
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00785340

 

[Aargh!]

Market has been cruel to AED on opening... -6.62% within minutes of open. Wish I could be at the AGM for a decent explanation from Ken

 

[bigdog]

Market has been cruel to AED on opening... -6.62% within minutes of open. Wish I could be at the AGM for a decent explanation from Ken

The share price is currently -$0.60 -8.45%

AED $6.50 -$0.60 -8.45% high of $7.01 & low of $6.45 795,203 shares $5,412,065 @ 21-Nov 10:18:48

 

[dj_420]

I sold 3/4 of my shares at 10.00 and the rest a couple of days ago at 7.50. I did not like the constant downgrades of production, increasing water cut, ongoing issues.

Now mgt are hopeful of achieving 20 k per day, WTF?!? It was 30 k plus at one stage.

I guess thats the pain with oilers! This was my first one and made some good profits although could have been a lot more.

 

[Bush Trader]

It was a good bounce off $5.90 mark, after what can only be described as a rush to the exits. I’m now holding.

Any elaborations on the AGM, did management look nervous? I read the announcements, however I would like to know if there was confidence in the rhetoric.

Cheers


BT