AED - AED Oil

[bigdog]

The market liked Fridays announcement and news reports over the weekend
-- up $1.44 or 19% in first minutes today

AED 8.99 1.440 19.07% with high of 9.02 530,910 shares $4,651,217 @ 02-Jul 10:08:20 AM

 

[nizar]

The market liked Fridays announcment and new reports over the weekend
-- up $1.44 or 19% in first minutes today

AED 8.99 1.440 19.07% with high of 9.02 530,910 shares $4,651,217 @ 02-Jul 10:08:20 AM

Yeh but its the close that is important.

Will be very hard to manage a white candle after a buck gap up, but i hope the professionals close it well.

Then i can double my position 2morw.

 

[nizar]

Why did it have to gap up so much??

Why couldnt it just act in a civilised manner so a nice gap up to $7.70 (15 ticks) and then run like a champion to close at $9 ??

Instead a 96 tick gap up and now a gap that will probably have to be filled before we go any higher

 

[dj_420]

Why did it have to gap up so much??

Why couldnt it just act in a civilised manner so a nice gap up to $7.70 (15 ticks) and then run like a champion to close at $9 ??

Instead a 96 tick gap up and now a gap that will probably have to be filled before we go any higher

well nizar now we have new high and resistance to beat now!

so even though gap will probably be filled will allow chance to top up under new highs, then assault the new highs again to break out

 

[gfresh]

Not sure about that creditsuisse report - it looks like most of their analysis is that they've just based their analysis on 'well the share price has risen xx% over the last year, therefore odds are against it rising another xx%' .. I guess that is a nice conservative opinion, and works for bluechips and more established stocks - but for this one I think there is a long way to go..

Well, now I'm a holder as of this morning..lets see where it takes me.

 

[nizar]

Chart attached showing how AED is about to break out of its third consolidation in a year.

The break of the previous 2 consolidations, resulted in a short 1-month rally where there was 40-60% sp appreciation.

Admittedly, this is the shortest of the 3 consolidation periods, so the break probably wont be as sharp.

 

[dj_420]

im hoping your right nizar

if history is anything to go from we could see between a 25-50% rise. i would love to see AED into the double digits.

 

[dj_420]

well guys another 40 million barrels just announced from puffin south west.

great stuff. i wonder what the potential upside could be for all the fields from puffin and timor. anyways looking great.

 

[Ken]

Please refer to post 56 on this thread.


Not blowing my own trumpet... but whoever sledged me to back up my broker valuation of $12-$14, I apologise for not proving the information to back up the info I received. At the time the share price was $3.50.

 

[bigdog]

well guys another 40 million barrels just announced from puffin south west.

AED 12:38 PM 40 Million Barrels in Puffin South West
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00735061

40 Million Barrels Contingent Oil Resource in Puffin South West
Independent expert Gaffney, Cline & Associates (GCA) has today provided to AED Oil Limited (AED) a letter detailing its examination of the volume of recoverable oil as a Contingent Resource* in the South West (SW) region of the Puffin Field. The Best Estimate for the potentially recoverable volume of oil is 40.3 million stock tank barrels (MMstb) based on deterministic methods. An extract of the letter providing the summary is attached. The recovery factors and potentially recoverable volume of oil are similar to that for the NE1 area of the field in the North East (NE) region. The entire Puffin Field including the NE and SW is in Production Licence AC/L6 and has an existing approval from government for development.

The SW region of the field is located approximately 10 km southwest of the current field development in the Puffin North East (NE) area. The SW area has been penetrated by two discovery wells, Puffin-2 (drilled in1974 by ARCO) and Puffin-9 (2006, AED). Puffin-2 discovered and tested oil at a rate of 4600 barrels of oil per day in the upper sand (UK1a).

The lower sand (LK1a) at Puffin-2 was water bearing with residual oil saturations. Puffin-9 is located 1900 m southeast of the Puffin-2 well and tested oil on a wireline tests (MDT) in both the UK1a and the LK1a sands. The total Oil Initially in Place (OIIP) for the SW area including the UK1a and LK1a is calculated by GCA to be a ‘Best Estimate’ value of 77.8 MMstb.

Recovery factors are estimated at a ‘Best Estimate’ value of up to 52% for the UK1a and 51% for the LK1a.

Following an extensive review of geological, geochemical and engineering data GCA have concluded that there is a single extensive oil pool in the UK1a reservoir. This common, continuous pool in the UK1a reservoir encompasses the Puffin-2 and Puffin-9 well areas. This evidence includes similar oil geochemistry, pressure data from both wells, similarities in sand thickness and petrophysical properties, and stratigraphic data from Puffin-9. Actual recovery factors for the SW region will depend upon the areal extent and shape of the upper and lower reservoirs as well as the aquifer and the mode of development including a possible need for water injection to supplement the aquifer’s pressure support.

* Contingent Resources may conceivably convert into reserves (in accordance with SPE guidelines) when the development plan has been finalized and the economics optimised.

In order to develop plans for the most effective extraction of the SW oil Contingent Resource, AED has commenced further work including:
1. Drilling and testing of an appraisal/production well on the Puffin-2 structure. Preliminary planning is underway for drilling of this well in 2008. AED’s next drilling programme commences in November this year with the drilling in the NE development area of two horizontal laterals producing through a single production casing for early tie back to the Front Puffin FPSO.

2. Additional seismic processing and interpretation, including re-processing of the 3D dataset, and horizon-based velocity analyses. The work is expected to be completed next month.

3. Expanded development planning for long lead items based on the number and locations of wells, facilities, etc. More generally, AED has begun conceptual development planning to examine options for the overall field development including possible synergies with Talbot development. This work is required to optimise the overall development of AED’s assets including the SW, NE (including the NE1 and NE2 areas) and Talbot. Development options include:
a. Joint development with the Puffin NE area (NE1 is currently being developed with the Front Puffin FPSO).
b. Stand alone SW development, eg, with one or more fixed structures (at 75m water depth in the SW is shallower than the 104 m in the NE).
c. Acquisition of a FPU (floating production unit) or additional FPSO facility for possible sequential development of Puffin SW and Talbot.

 

[laurie]

That's why the FPSO was delayed to allow AED to modify the vessel to accept feed from another well now lets hope no one is looking at this as a takeover target

cheers laurie

 

[bigdog]

Melbourne oil company AED Oil hit the billion-dollar market cap yesterday when its shares jumped $1.09 to $8.64, having gone as high as $9.02 on confirmation its Puffin South West field offshore WA had 40 million recoverable barrels of oil.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...punters-regroup/2007/07/02/1183351125685.html

 

[bigdog]

SP today is currently down 36 cents
AED $8.28 -$0.36 -4.17% with high of $8.81 and low of $8.21 481,456 shares $4,142,327 @ 03-Jul 12:46:26

ASX just issued:
AED 12:35 PM NWE's ann: Puffin Oil Volume Update
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00735572

Puffin Oil Volume Update
Norwest provides reference to a recent ASX announcement by the Puffin Oilfield operator, AED Oil Limited dated 2nd July, 2007.

In the announcement, AED refers to the latest estimates of potentially recoverable oil in the SW area of 40.3 million barrels. Combining that with previous figures provides the following table of oil volumes.

-------------------------------------OIIP ----------Recoverable Volumes
-------------------------------------Million Barrels --Volumes Million Barrels
NE1 Oil Volumes P50 ---------------- 67 ------------ 40
NE2 Oil Volumes, average (and range) 20.5 (11-30) ---9 (5-13)
SW Oil Volumes best estimate ------- 77.8 ---------- 40.3
Total ----------------------------- 165.3 ---------- 89.3

A single number quoted for recoverable volumes indicates that AED has quoted these recoverable volumes. A number followed by a range indicates that Norwest has made assumptions from AED’s information.

Norwest holds a 1.25% over-riding royalty interest which covers the entire AC/P22 permit. The potential value of Norwest’s royalty stream using the estimated recoverable volume is calculated at between AU $66 million and $92 million based on an oil price range of from US$50 to $70 per barrel and exchange rate of $0.85.

AED also refers in an announcement dated 29th June 2007 to likely commencement of production for the Puffin NE1 area in August 2007.

 

[gfresh]

Norwest holds a 1.25% over-riding royalty interest which covers the entire AC/P22 permit. The potential value of Norwest’s royalty stream using the estimated recoverable volume is calculated at between AU $66 million and $92 million based on an oil price range of from US$50 to $70 per barrel and exchange rate of $0.85.

Would it be right to assume then that AED's revenue would therefore be 98.75%, or $5.280bn - $7.360bn ? or am I missing something.

 

[dj_420]

Would it be right to assume then that AED's revenue would therefore be 98.75%, or $5.280bn - $7.360bn ? or am I missing something.

thats right, will be on a PE of around 3 with future forecasts

for ten years oil production! broker reports will soon reflect these massive upgrades

looks the goods IMO

 

[Pat]

Hello AED holders,
I'm on this one since the upgrade. But what has struck me is the recent volitility. It's as if the open aution jacks the price up, then the SP continues to fall throughout the day. Is the market "gob smacked" and deciding what value AED at?
Pat.

 

[chops_a_must]

Hello AED holders,
I'm on this one since the upgrade. But what has struck me is the recent volitility. It's as if the open aution jacks the price up, then the SP continues to fall throughout the day. Is the market "gob smacked" and deciding what value AED at?
Pat.

I don't think so. It's just that AED has always been an incredibly volatile stock when it is on the move. Must be a day traders dream at times to trade off these big swings.

 

[nizar]

I don't think so. It's just that AED has always been an incredibly volatile stock when it is on the move. Must be a day traders dream at times to trade off these big swings.

I bought some more today on the open.
Didnt know if it was gonna close the gap or not.
FMG has a few gaps in the mid-20s that never got filled.

I couldnt risk it getting into double digits without me having a full bag.

 

[jimski]

With David Dix warning that recent rises in SP and possible consolidation in the energy sector make AED a potential takeover target - what does anyone think about the likelihood of this happening?

What are the positive and negative implications of a takeover for retail shareholders?

 

[gfresh]

Here is the transcript from that interview.. It's finally up at:

http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2007/s1968529.htm

----
ALAN KOHLER, PRESENTER: While Australia's oil output is tipped to start declining next year, there was at least some good news this week with the announcement that the biggest new field, AED Oil's Puffin lease in the Timor Sea would start production before the end of September. It's been a remarkably rapid rise for AED which started with a $55 million dollar float just two years ago and a key asset of an oilfield no one else wanted. Since then its grown to be a billion dollar enterprise, its share price has increased more than tenfold, and as you'll hear, it's ready to substantially upgrade its reserves. I spoke to AED's founder and Chairman, David Dix. (To David Dix) Well David Dix, some of the world's biggest oil companies picked over Puffin: Arco, BHP and so on, you came along, an investment banker, and found what they couldn't find, how does that work?

DAVID DIX, CHAIRMAN, AED: I think actually what we did was exploited what they'd previously found. The project was first identified in the 1970s by Arco. BHP's owned it, Alberta Energy's owned it, they've all put a lot of wells into it, they've all spent a lot of money in trying to explore it, oil price went down, they lost interest. It was never going to be at that stage the 500 million barrel field that Arco was looking for and we were looking for a small commodity play, small project that we could get fund to get up and going, fitted us, we spent money, we were lucky and it grew.

ALAN KOHLER: Did you think it would be a big field or was it just luck?

DAVID DIX: No. We saw there was potential because Jabiru and Chalice... I mean, Jabiru I think had been identified as a 15 million barrel field, it's now done 105 million barrels and it's still going, Chalice I think was sort of 12 to 20 million barrels, it's now done 60 million barrels it's still going. Those projects gave us some confidence. The Timor Sea was a difficult area to actually interpret and understand and therefore there was potential and we talked about that at the time of the float but you never really expect to be that lucky.

ALAN KOHLER: And how much did you pay for it?

DAVID DIX: We paid 3.5 million vendor shares and a 1.25 per cent overriding royalty interest. We actually were meant to pay more...

ALAN KOHLER: That's almost nothing.

DAVID DIX: In retrospect it is, although it was a fair deal at the time and the parties we deal with are still good friends with us and they think at the time they got a reasonable deal. They were wanting to get into the North Sea, nobody really wanted to take on the field, it worked for us and we spent the money and took the risk and we've got the rewards.

ALAN KOHLER: What were the known reserves at the time?

DAVID DIX: It was uncertain when we first negotiated but we got Gaffney Cline in to come and do a reserve report which we funded personally, and it came out to around about 11 million barrels of P50 reserves at that point.

ALAN KOHLER: And what is it now?

DAVID DIX: Well in the next week or so, we're hoping that... we've probably got the potential to move up towards 100 million barrel fill. At the moment we've announced 40 million barrels of reserves in one portion of it, we've indicated that we've got a significant reserve base in the south west, we're becoming much more certain in relation to the size of that field and we'll be announcing something to that effect quite shortly.

ALAN KOHLER: Are any of the oil companies now coming along knocking on your door trying to take you over, to get it back?

DAVID DIX: No, none that have been involved in it before. We've had the occasional approach from parties that... obviously oil is very attractive particularly in our region where you've got black letter law, where you've got Tapis pricing, which is currently probably the highest pricing in the world and according to a lot of articles that are being written at the moment, it will stay at a premium to Brenton, a premium to WTI for quite some time, so it's a very attractive place to be, 'cause most new fields are being identified, are being... certainly happening in regions which are less politically stable than hopefully Australia is.

ALAN KOHLER: So do you think there will be, just leaving aside whether you sell out, do you think there will be consolidation in the oil industry in Australia?

DAVID DIX: I think there will be consolidation, and I mean, if you look in the cycles over the last 30 years, every time there is sort of a growth and a commodity price there has always been consolidation, there is a difficulty in getting capital equipment, there's a difficulty in getting good staff, those things can lead to a need to get bigger and to compete to acquire the capital equipment. We've been quite lucky, because of our size we've been able to buy a lot of second hand equipment, a lot of other things and we now have a lot of very good people coming to us to work for us, primarily because we've had a lot of growth and we're probably one of the greatest potential companies in the oil side of this stage a lot of people want to join, become part of it.

ALAN KOHLER: Are you now looking to use your script to buy other fields around the place, other companies?

DAVID DIX: I haven't actually had a lot of time to look at evaluating other companies because our field has grown so quickly, we really haven't had a lot of time for that type of activity.

ALAN KOHLER: You haven't needed to I guess either, have you? DAVID DIX: No, I think we are probably more likely be a target, and from my experience in acquisitions in this sort of market, it's very difficult to acquire things and get them at value, we know much more about what we have ourself than what other people have, we have a lot of growth where we are so we should be devoting our capital into growing the assets that we know best.

ALAN KOHLER: Do you think the success of Puffin indicates that the north west shelf could end up being a big oil field in general in addition to just gas?

DAVID DIX: That whole region does have a lot of potential, technology is improving all the time. And I suppose the thing is that in the last 20 years there has been a move away from that region, BHP left the region, went to gulf of Mexico, a lot of people are not investing a lot of money and time. I think that's changing, I think because there's a new lease of life that's happening there. There's a lot more activity and focus and with the oil price going up to sort of $70 plus it's a very profitable thing for people to do if they're successful.

ALAN KOHLER: Do you think that the oil price is going to keep rising, do you have a view about that and what about the proposition that the world's oil production has peaked?

DAVID DIX: There's so much oil coming from politically sensitive regions and if you look at what happened with the potential threat of an oil strike in Nigeria, the oil price spiked, there's a potential for weather conditions to occur in the Gulf of Mexico which would cause problems and the oil price will spike again, Venezuela has been becoming an issue, there's not a lot of new oil being found in regions which are politically stable or otherwise safe, so the margin between demand and supply is quite tight. As to whether, globally, Saudi Arabia or someone else can produce a lot more oil to balance it I think they're reasonably happy... there's a cartel where the oil price is at the moment and I don't think it sort of supports a lot of investment into biofuels and other things, there is that going to happen but an oil price of $70 is equivalent to at least how much it is going to cost to produce the alternate fuels, so I think it will stabilise at this level with the potential to go up if there's a change in the political environment in any of the regions where there is major oil being produced.

ALAN KOHLER: Thanks very much for joining us, David Dix.

DAVID DIX: Thank you.