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ADI - Adelphi Energy

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i was given the new web address for couch oil.. see if you can find any reference to SL in it.. i havent yet.. all news from them is still off site and by email only..


http://www.cboil.net




I see the new presentation on ADI's site put the secondary at 170 BCF, which is still by all accounts is way way short of the expected reserves after the acerage is signed up and the testing is done.

NT is 40 BCF to 80 BCF.


we could be sitting on a minimum of 250BCF and not factoring in any of the oil, and the share price is at a staggering .60

up until a few weeks ago, the sugarloaf play was undoubtedly being kept very very low key, and for the reasons of getting further acerage accross ALL DEPTHS on the sugarloaf leases. its amazing that they find it important to let you know that. but the austin secondary play was a very late addition in the wells history, and it seems that now the JVP's have got a fairly comfortable position, they are suddenly talking up the sugarloaf secondary.

from the very ultra conservative 40bcf to the conservative 170 BCF and not taking into account maybe 72mmb, and still no testing being done on the well which by all accounts will deliver even further clarity in respect to reserves which all jvp's have openly admitted are under the estimates so far projected.

i would say that still today, the share is without doubt brilliant value. for adi to post 170 BCF says to me they wouldnt do so unless they were absolutely certain it couldnt be remotely overestimated, and totally safe as an conservative estimate.

anyone see the same picture developing?

all IMHO and dyor
 
Agentm,
The 170bcfe was pre drill upside. Pre drill mean was 100bcfe.
Post drill the partners are far more bullish but without putting out a number, not least AUT in their report this week:-

“Our principle focus over the past several months has been to acquire a significant land position prior to testing the possible pay zone in our Sugarloaf-1 well. Management holds high expectations for the successful exploitation of this valuable land position. We consider the testing scheduled at our Sugarloaf project (and in due course at our Ipanema and Longhorn plays) offers the potential for a significant re-rating of this play and hence Aurora’s value.”

“Having secured a material land position, our objective is now to establish a large reserve base on this acreage through drilling and geological and geophysical assessment. This strategy has proved very effective for a number of junior and mid-size US oil and gas companies in resource plays such as the Barnett, Fayetteville and Woodford Shales and the conventional Austin Chalk. The technical information available to us to date gives us considerable optimism that our play could prove more attractive than these large successfully producing formations.”

“A successful test of one or more of the possible pay zones in the Sugarloaf 1 Well would give confidence in the potential for significant recoverable reserves in this project.”


Also ADI mentioned Hydrocarbons in their report i.e. not just gas :-

"At the Sugarloaf Prospect, preparations are being made to undertake an extensive flow test of the shallower Cretaceous age carbonate formation where a potential pay zone for hydrocarbons of some 92 feet had been identified based on well log data and gas shows during drilling last year."
 
i thought i was the only person out there interested in sugarloaf,,

i see the use of hydrocarbons confirms the broker reports and other reports of condensate.

i am convinced the play is exactly as large as AUT is comparing it to, and possibly larger.

so it takes a few days for the market to wake up and smell the roses, but its out there, the secondaries are not a minor play, but potentially significantly larger than the primary. i believe tcf is more likely based on the aut announcement.

time to research some more tonight i see.
 
Agentm said:
i thought i was the only person out there interested in sugarloaf,,

i see the use of hydrocarbons confirms the broker reports and other reports of condensate.

i am convinced the play is exactly as large as AUT is comparing it to, and possibly larger.

so it takes a few days for the market to wake up and smell the roses, but its out there, the secondaries are not a minor play, but potentially significantly larger than the primary. i believe tcf is more likely based on the aut announcement.

time to research some more tonight i see.
Click to expand...

You are definitely not the only one interested Agent ............ Not much buying pressure atm, but selling is almost non existent as well. It feels like a spring being wound up .............. Failing a market correction, I'll be surprised if this gets much under 60 cents from here on in ................. I agree that the "vibe" is we are onto something special ............... Worst case scenario as I see it is that, even if S/L doesn't provide the immediate success we are all hoping for, the JV's seem so convinced of the "eventual" success, (as proven by the additional land aquisitions), that it will only be a matter of time/patience before the big payday (and that is the worst case) ........... The best case is of course that S/L (and NT) quickly becomes commercial creating company/shareholder wealth ........... they then drill some more wells and tap into that "primary" target from another angle and access what they seem pretty convinced is down there ................. Maybe I'm wearing rose coloured glasses, but I get the feeling that not too far down the track we'll all be saying why didn't we buy more ADI when it was only 60 cents .......... Just wish I had a bit more spare cash :eek: ................ (Still holding, and accumulating in small parcels as finances permit.............. all just imo, cause I am a biased punter :D
 
the jvs all looking healthy again and all looking to gap up on open.
Sugarloaf it seems is finally giving them all a bit of backbone particularly eka which has found its feet.
 
its great to see the jvp's are being bought up again,, not many new sellers coming on the boards, and i cant blame anyone for holding, this stock is being extremely closely held..


i cant see the logic in selling..

three very important announcements to come.

First will be NT, and ADI is then a producer.

Second will be Sugarloaf.

Third the alliances project in africa, its expected soon.

Along with indonesia, and yemen being approved in the next 60 days. if you feel the share is worth what it is today and your selling, i guess it must mean that none of the projects look promising.

I cant for the life of me see any downside in anything adi is currently involved with.

exciting days ahead, and the coming 60 days is going to see some truely astounding company making announcements i feel.. I have to say i am extremely upbeat on sugarloaf, the more you look at and read the announcements, the things each JVP is putting forward, and the absolute magnitude of the play, i really cannot see anywhere where you can get any negative sentiment towards ADI and its projects.

all imho and seriously dyor while you can
 
agentm,

We all appreciate the research you put into ADI and it gives a lot of information that many of other investors can not find. We are still dealing with a speculative share at the minute. So if your looking for negatives, I would say the fact that ADI doesnt have any cash flow is a negative. If things dont go to plan, and there are some negative drill results then that would be no good for holders.

We have no guarantees here.

Speculation is a negative factor in my eyes.
 
ADI as far as i am concerned was never a producer, its about to be in the very near term with NT, the well is being hooked up to the pipeline as we speak, it will be fraced then flow tested and fully hooked up after that. obviously it cant be declared a production well until after the testing, but the processes in play are very different to what you normally do in a wildcat well, but more like what you do on a production well. speculation? yes, but based on very sound reasoning.

NT is no company maker, it will not be insignificant, but as a producing well it will allow cash flow to be injected into many projects on the go.

Sugarloaf is now no longer a case of just being a secondary 40bcf play, and if your buying up 80 square kilometers of leases,(and remember this, and think about it context of what it must mean, they are buying the leases across all depths!!) and paying the big dollars to hold them, then you better be very certain that your onto something. I dont by any means underestimate the value of sugarloaf, and its not speculation anymore when a JVP announces something like this.

This strategy has proved very effective for a number of junior and mid-size US oil and gas companies in resource plays such as the Barnett, Fayetteville and Woodford Shales and the conventional Austin Chalk. The technical information available to us to date gives us considerable optimism that our play could prove more attractive than these large successfully producing formations


I dont see much speculation, i see forward planning, lots and lots of it, clever lease buying and very expensive ones too, i see a future in adi that isnt about drilling a well and trying to locate a play, i see two wells and two plays.

i guess the ones selling are seeing it different, but i dont and continue to do my research and continue to see announcements confirming things and not leaving much doubt.

each does their own research and draws their own conclusions, i recommend you do the same and clearly understand the implications of 80 sqaure kilometes of leases in texas is nothing to sneeze at, and they have not finished buying them up as yet.
 
Has everyone checked seller depths of late for ADI? getting very tight indeed with only 261 000 shares on offer :2twocents

I guess we wait and see what they really have....

When are you expecting the announcement Agentm? a trading halt may be the course of action do you think?
 
if you look at it now the depth is amazingly thin..

i think the NT well announcement will have to come today or tomorrow, it wont require a trading halt.
 
Grouse day for jvs -
aut up 5.43%
eka up 6.82%
adi up 11.48%
A coincidence or sugarloaf price action. Just funny how everyone piled on today when the sensitive infos been out there a while now.
 
constable said:
Grouse day for jvs -
aut up 5.43%
eka up 6.82%
adi up 11.48%
A coincidence or sugarloaf price action. Just funny how everyone piled on today when the sensitive infos been out there a while now.
Click to expand...

Could also be due to the NT testing just around the corner...but it normally takes the market a few days to digest information of the like that has been released by the JVP's on SL.
 
the interest is there across the jvp's which says its the SL factor, and a touch more in adi for the NT factor perhaps? or maybe the adi share is more attractive than the other jvp's on the number of ongoing prospects and projects..

i cant see any short or long term down side and next week we have NT news all over the place.. looks like great days ahead..
 
:)
Ken said:
gday,

I found this through a search engine. looks like its a list of all the sugar loaf wells ever drilled, and there success rates.


If anyone can make anything of it let me know

Dont really know how to read it.


http://abyss.kgs.ku.edu/pls/abyss/qualified.ogw4.FieldWells?f_fc=1000148029

I also found this link too. looks like south east sugar loaf oil/gas production:

http://abyss.kgs.ku.edu/pls/abyss/oil.ogf4.IDProdQuery?FieldNumber=1000148030
Click to expand...


happy to help Ken, your in the wrong place, wrong state..:)

you have to leave kansas and head for ole texas.. pm me if you want more info
 
Thought we may have heard some definative news on NT by now ?
Anyone know the hold up surely not more rain
 
last week azz announced delays due to rain, i cant see any reason to doubt them, so based on that i expect news should be in the midweekly report from them as to how close the pipeline is to the well. As soon as its connected they will frac test and make it a production well.
 
Info on NT is in the AZZ AGM report. Just released on ASX.
Looks like NT should be on line within a couple of weeks, with a possible NT2 pencilled in for Q4.
 
interesting:

The New Taiton project was finally drilled with the Ilse-1 well reaching a depth of 17,000 feet, with very strong gas and condensate shows within the targeted Wilcox reservoirs. We are eagerly anticipating the production testing of this well which should commence within a few days.​


• High gas readings and interpreted

log pay in upper and middle Wilcox
• Testing underway shortly​




looks fine to me.. oct - dec 07 isle 2.​

says to me azz are bullish,, lets see how adi present it.. ​

​
 
I think the SP is primed for a bit of a run on the back of some positive news from NT...could be the start of it tomorrow if the weekly report from AZZ is upbeat...Anyone know how long the testing is likely to take once it starts?
 

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