ADI - Adelphi Energy
- Thread starter Dukey
- Start date
-
- Tags
- adelphi energy adi
- Joined
- 17 August 2006
- Posts
- 7,927
- Reactions
- 8,655
My 
worth. There will probably be a percentage of "impatient" punters who are happy to bail out on slight increases in the sp over the next few weeks or so. There are many reasons why people need to sell shares. With ADI there will be some holders who bought higher than current and will be happy to break even on a rise ............ Some will simply need the money to pay debts ............... Some may have held since early on and will make a nice profit at the current or slightly higher sp, and therefore will be happy to sell if the sp doesn't move quick enough over the next few weeks ............ and some may back themselves to put the money elsewhere for a higher return in the short term as CF pointed out, and hopefully get back in on future sp movements ...................
From my point of view, I'll try and cover all scenarios ............ I'll continue to hold my current shares .............. I bought a few more yesterday just in case of a spike .............. and if the sp drops over the next few weeks/months I'll try and top up at reasonable prices ............. Not rocket science, but if you believe the company has potential, then you'll tend to buy .......... alternatively you'll sell ................... I'm kind of leaning towards the "buy" principal, but if punters want to sell it down to 40 cents, I'm sure there will be the odd buyer who might be interested at that price!!
worth. There will probably be a percentage of "impatient" punters who are happy to bail out on slight increases in the sp over the next few weeks or so. There are many reasons why people need to sell shares. With ADI there will be some holders who bought higher than current and will be happy to break even on a rise ............ Some will simply need the money to pay debts ............... Some may have held since early on and will make a nice profit at the current or slightly higher sp, and therefore will be happy to sell if the sp doesn't move quick enough over the next few weeks ............ and some may back themselves to put the money elsewhere for a higher return in the short term as CF pointed out, and hopefully get back in on future sp movements ................... From my point of view, I'll try and cover all scenarios ............ I'll continue to hold my current shares .............. I bought a few more yesterday just in case of a spike .............. and if the sp drops over the next few weeks/months I'll try and top up at reasonable prices ............. Not rocket science, but if you believe the company has potential, then you'll tend to buy .......... alternatively you'll sell ................... I'm kind of leaning towards the "buy" principal, but if punters want to sell it down to 40 cents, I'm sure there will be the odd buyer who might be interested at that price!!
- Joined
- 2 October 2006
- Posts
- 3,043
- Reactions
- 2
at least arq has the fortitude to call NT and SL a discovery in their presentation this morning, if the jvp's had the same courage the sp would maybe look different also, great buying opportunities in any case.
- Joined
- 2 October 2006
- Posts
- 3,043
- Reactions
- 2
the rig can be moved as far as possible from the site, what a disaster that one was
- Joined
- 17 August 2006
- Posts
- 7,927
- Reactions
- 8,655
We could be excused for thinking negative about todays price action, but if you were watching P/Trader carefully, you would have noticed one very keen buyer ............... Fair enough there had to be a keen seller/sellers as well, but that is to be expected considering the 2-3 month time frame on S/L ........... Any one else pick up on the "14" buyer relative to the times bought ........... Probably a broker under instruction, but nevertheless well over $150 grand from what looks like the same punter ............... No sooner had each buy order been filled, than the next order of 40,000 (and 14) was posted ............ Wish I had a loose 150 grand to drop on ADI 2 months out from news ..................... Interesting .............. I'm just wondering if the keen seller kept offering stock, just how much the keen buyer was willing to take up the stock ................ could be the tip of the iceberg .............. Personally I think the sp will fluctuate/drop more B4 substantial news, but I like what I saw today regardless ............... Then again maybe I'm just seeing something that isn't there :venus: .........then again maybe not :headshake
.............. I'm just wondering if the keen seller kept offering stock, just how much the keen buyer was willing to take up the stock ................ could be the tip of the iceberg .............. Personally I think the sp will fluctuate/drop more B4 substantial news, but I like what I saw today regardless ............... Then again maybe I'm just seeing something that isn't there :venus: .........then again maybe not :headshake
- Joined
- 2 October 2006
- Posts
- 3,043
- Reactions
- 2
Hi folks,
ADI ... expecting 2 positive cycles to bring
us some news, about 26-27042007 ...
happy days
paul
now the news was a few days early but it was positive..
can yogi tell me when i will be filthy rich???
My opinion.
It's going to be a rocky road.
Investors will get shaken off the stock on the bad days and drawn into it on the good days.
If you're looking beyond the short term I think rewards are there.
My gut feeling the trading range will be volatile 60 cents to 40 cents untill the rest of the story unfolds. This will test people. Just my opinion.
It's going to be a rocky road.
Investors will get shaken off the stock on the bad days and drawn into it on the good days.
If you're looking beyond the short term I think rewards are there.
My gut feeling the trading range will be volatile 60 cents to 40 cents untill the rest of the story unfolds. This will test people. Just my opinion.
- Joined
- 10 April 2007
- Posts
- 240
- Reactions
- 0
.... with you Ken... there's time to burn so trick will be to wait on the side lines with some spare cash and pick up on the low days... and to resist those impulses.... funny thing is contributors to this thread will probably buy and sell to and from each other without knowing..... reckon EKA has taken a hammering recently and is pretty much at it's low.... but as i like to say to my mates... given what we know to date it looks like the sp could go either way!
Update on Adelphi´s web page issued in the last 24 hours.
Significant upside potential to previous reserve estimate of 100bcfe for the shallow horizon.
"The focus is now on the shallower carbonate formations where the most significant gas shows were encountered during the drilling of the well."
"Sugarloaf Carbonate Prospect
During the drilling of the Sugarloaf-1 well the joint venture reported a 92 feet (28 metres) zone of possible gas pay, interpreted from wire-line logs and gas shows in Cretaceous age carbonates.
Since that report, further detailed analysis of the logs has been undertaken by the project Operator Texas Crude Energy Inc (“TCEI”) who advises that this possible pay interval is comprised of three zones of porosity which are expected to be tested separately.
The Operator is presently conducting engineering and reservoir studies to determine the best method of completing the zones for testing. Whatever method is chosen it is expected that fracture stimulation will be part of the procedure as is typical in such carbonates. The technical assessment, test design, permitting and securing of services is expected to be completed by June/July 2007 at which time testing operations will commence.
As a result of the analysis of this possible pay, the Operator has extended the Joint Venture's land acquisition program within the Area of Mutual Interest (“AMI”), increasing the area over which the Joint Venture has rights to all depths, including the abovementioned carbonate zone, to approximately 19,500 acres (some 80 square kilometres) to date.
Prior to drilling the well, Adelphi had estimated mean potential reserves for this shallower horizon of some 100 billion cubic feet of gas equivalent (BCFE). Based on the well information obtained to date, the additional lease acreage acquired since and subject to a successful flow test from this well, there is significant upside potential to Adelphi's previous reserves estimate."
http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/projects/Proj_Sugarloaf.php
Significant upside potential to previous reserve estimate of 100bcfe for the shallow horizon.
"The focus is now on the shallower carbonate formations where the most significant gas shows were encountered during the drilling of the well."
"Sugarloaf Carbonate Prospect
During the drilling of the Sugarloaf-1 well the joint venture reported a 92 feet (28 metres) zone of possible gas pay, interpreted from wire-line logs and gas shows in Cretaceous age carbonates.
Since that report, further detailed analysis of the logs has been undertaken by the project Operator Texas Crude Energy Inc (“TCEI”) who advises that this possible pay interval is comprised of three zones of porosity which are expected to be tested separately.
The Operator is presently conducting engineering and reservoir studies to determine the best method of completing the zones for testing. Whatever method is chosen it is expected that fracture stimulation will be part of the procedure as is typical in such carbonates. The technical assessment, test design, permitting and securing of services is expected to be completed by June/July 2007 at which time testing operations will commence.
As a result of the analysis of this possible pay, the Operator has extended the Joint Venture's land acquisition program within the Area of Mutual Interest (“AMI”), increasing the area over which the Joint Venture has rights to all depths, including the abovementioned carbonate zone, to approximately 19,500 acres (some 80 square kilometres) to date.
Prior to drilling the well, Adelphi had estimated mean potential reserves for this shallower horizon of some 100 billion cubic feet of gas equivalent (BCFE). Based on the well information obtained to date, the additional lease acreage acquired since and subject to a successful flow test from this well, there is significant upside potential to Adelphi's previous reserves estimate."
http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/projects/Proj_Sugarloaf.php
- Joined
- 8 October 2006
- Posts
- 230
- Reactions
- 3
wow great find freddy,
you'd think that last statement would require a mkt sensitive announcement!! ??
you'd think that last statement would require a mkt sensitive announcement!! ??
- Joined
- 3 December 2006
- Posts
- 446
- Reactions
- 0
BCFE Billions of Cubic Feet Equivalent
This is a gas only measurement.
Their is often oil condensate which comes up with the gas and is separated at the surface, its very possible that oil condensate is in these holes but we will have to wait and see.
- Joined
- 2 October 2006
- Posts
- 3,043
- Reactions
- 2
the update on the webpage mirrors the sugarloaf release to the market on 24th April 2007..
what is added is the last paragraph.
Prior to drilling the well, Adelphi had estimated mean potential reserves for this shallower horizon of some 100 billion cubic feet of gas equivalent (BCFE). Based on the well information obtained to date, the additional lease acreage acquired since and subject to a successful flow test from this well, there is significant upside potential to Adelphi's previous reserves estimate.
the news hasnt really changed, it was always openly said the potential reserves may be higher than estimated, but regardless, i cant see any change happening, it may entice a few more numbers of speculative buyers, but ideally we have to wait for the potential reserves to be confirmed with positive test results before some real action will happen.
the use of the term BCFE is based on possibilities of:
simply put, you have to understand what was written in the webpage is pure speculation and generalisation, and was deliberately kept off the mid week report because it would fall foul of the rules if it was presented as a stand alone statement to the market, and to stop any adverse sp reaction because it would be speculation. ADI maintain a professional view on what they release and absolutely dont want speculation on the sp, no one wants to see 40% sp drifts like we see on gdn on a week to week basis and in between the release of reports. but none the less its encouraging.
again all IMHO and dyor
what is added is the last paragraph.
Prior to drilling the well, Adelphi had estimated mean potential reserves for this shallower horizon of some 100 billion cubic feet of gas equivalent (BCFE). Based on the well information obtained to date, the additional lease acreage acquired since and subject to a successful flow test from this well, there is significant upside potential to Adelphi's previous reserves estimate.
the news hasnt really changed, it was always openly said the potential reserves may be higher than estimated, but regardless, i cant see any change happening, it may entice a few more numbers of speculative buyers, but ideally we have to wait for the potential reserves to be confirmed with positive test results before some real action will happen.
the use of the term BCFE is based on possibilities of:
Crude Oil Equivalent Converting gas volumes to the oil equivalent is customarily done on the basis of the heating content or calorific value of the fuel. There are a number of methodologies in common use. Before aggregating, the gas volumes first must be converted to the same temperature and pressure. Common industry gas conversion factors usually range between 1.0 barrel of oil equivalent (boe) = 5.6
thousand standard cubic feet of gas (mscf) to 1.0 boe = 6.0 mscf.
thousand standard cubic feet of gas (mscf) to 1.0 boe = 6.0 mscf.
simply put, you have to understand what was written in the webpage is pure speculation and generalisation, and was deliberately kept off the mid week report because it would fall foul of the rules if it was presented as a stand alone statement to the market, and to stop any adverse sp reaction because it would be speculation. ADI maintain a professional view on what they release and absolutely dont want speculation on the sp, no one wants to see 40% sp drifts like we see on gdn on a week to week basis and in between the release of reports. but none the less its encouraging.
again all IMHO and dyor
- Joined
- 8 October 2006
- Posts
- 230
- Reactions
- 3
Ahh yes, must have had too much plonk last night!!
I didn't notice the BCFE, as their original estimates were 27BCF mean and 50BCF P10, but the estimates of condensate of 12mmbbls and 20mmbls would have to be converted for the BCFE?
Anyway, yes I guess its what ADI have been saying pretty much all along that they expect it to towards the upper end of the estimates.
I didn't notice the BCFE, as their original estimates were 27BCF mean and 50BCF P10, but the estimates of condensate of 12mmbbls and 20mmbls would have to be converted for the BCFE?
Anyway, yes I guess its what ADI have been saying pretty much all along that they expect it to towards the upper end of the estimates.
- Joined
- 8 October 2006
- Posts
- 230
- Reactions
- 3
So if the mean is around 100BCFE, the P10 should be around 200BCFE.
Aldephi's NRI I believe will be around 15%, so they could potentially have 15-30BCFE. Which valuated at $5M per BCFE would give a sp of .75c to 1.50
This of course would require the assumption of the market to value 1BCFE at $5M, but I believe in the conversions 1BCFE (with condensate) should be valued more highly then 1BCF gas. (like those that have big MMBOE reserves aren't as valuable as those with big MMBO reserves of the same number)
It also brings us back to a page with leverage to exploration success in an ADI May 2006 presentation with price target of $1 and $1.7 for the shallow(based on StockAnalysis report)
Aldephi's NRI I believe will be around 15%, so they could potentially have 15-30BCFE. Which valuated at $5M per BCFE would give a sp of .75c to 1.50
This of course would require the assumption of the market to value 1BCFE at $5M, but I believe in the conversions 1BCFE (with condensate) should be valued more highly then 1BCF gas. (like those that have big MMBOE reserves aren't as valuable as those with big MMBO reserves of the same number)
It also brings us back to a page with leverage to exploration success in an ADI May 2006 presentation with price target of $1 and $1.7 for the shallow(based on StockAnalysis report)
- Joined
- 10 April 2007
- Posts
- 240
- Reactions
- 0
seems reasonable based on original volumes but... given the drilling results i'm wondering whether there's been cause to revise the original volumetric model... could now be working with a whole new set of P10/50/90's....
New post from Safiande in London
Safiande - 28 Apr'07 - 10:42 - 37597 of 37597
Agentm,
Agree with your post. The new corporate presentation posted on ADI ´s web site today continues to stress the upside.
• 2 possible shallow wells in 2007
• Mean reserves pre drill 100bcf – 170bcf
• “ could be significantly increased pending a successful flow test “
• Reservoir depth 3800m
• Further leasing initiatives are ongoing beyond 1950 acres
http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/snapshot/documents/Adelphi Investor Presentation April 2007.pdf
Safiande - 28 Apr'07 - 10:42 - 37597 of 37597
Agentm,
Agree with your post. The new corporate presentation posted on ADI ´s web site today continues to stress the upside.
• 2 possible shallow wells in 2007
• Mean reserves pre drill 100bcf – 170bcf
• “ could be significantly increased pending a successful flow test “
• Reservoir depth 3800m
• Further leasing initiatives are ongoing beyond 1950 acres
http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/snapshot/documents/Adelphi Investor Presentation April 2007.pdf
- Joined
- 2 October 2006
- Posts
- 3,043
- Reactions
- 2
i really feel the adi management is now trying to bring some stability to the sp, the sudden sell down of the share has not been to their liking, so the upbeat news is presented in their website.
it seems the acerage issue has caused much need for diplomacy and a low key approach to how news is presented to the market. but i must say they have always maintained this approach in any case previously.
for me i feel NT will be the first thing to spark the sp, should the testing go well and adi become a producer.. sl is months away still, and may not have immediate sp impact.
Yogi called it, and that guy is a legend...
