I'm sick to death of 'Experts' predicting crashes...

[Realist]

Quick question...

Has there ever been a day when some "expert" somewhere did not write an article about an impending stock market crash?


Wars, the year 2000, the Asian bubble, SARS, birdflu, Oil, politics, D-day...The list goes on and on for excuses that the market will crash.


Any small little drop in the price of anything is an indication the 'experts' were right.

If the market goes up it is a WARNING that we are getting dangerously overvalued and closer to D-day.

These experts are never wrong....

 

[Joe Blow]

What about complete amateurs predicting crashes?

Sorry, couldn't resist.

 

[tech/a]

Throw in the millenium bug.
Oh and Jesus will be born again.

But hey England did win back the ashes --albeit momenterily.
There WILL be taxes and you will surely die.

 

[Realist]

What about complete amateurs predicting crashes?

Sorry, couldn't resist.

It's a fair point Joe.

Virtually everyone I tell that I don't own a house but put my money into the sharemarket thinks it is risky and asks "what about when it crashes" - as if crashes are a common thing or likely to happen soon.


Few will accept that including dividends shares have always over the longterm outperformed the housing market, and have very little associated costs and require no physical work.

 

[YChromozome]

These experts are never wrong....

Thats the good thing about predicting crashes. Someday, no doubt it will happen and your right!

If you look at the other side, there are just as many people predicting the housing market will boom another 160% over the next ten years, or resources are in a 20 year (or was that 50 year?) super-cycle.

I do my own research, and only have one person to blame.

 

[nizar]

Yeh i remember that bloke on CNBC been predicting a crash in US markets from October last year. Every month that hes been wrong, theres always an excuse. Then after what happened late Feb he came on TV and beat his chest!

He wasnt wrong just early HAHA in this game its EXACTLY the same thing.

Just ask Buffet he betted USD/GBP would fall in 2005, instead he was on the wrong side of the. Then the experts came out and said Buffet was just early, who cares, he still lost $1billion.

Just as well those "analysts" make their living from "analysis" and not from trading!

 

[wayneL]

<tongueincheek>I agree with you all, all these predictions of crashes are all rubbish.

But as an aside, I think the spiking oils price today is going to crash the market</tongueincheek>

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

<Tongueincheek> OLE! .

 

[wayneL]

Watch the Yen

 

[Wysiwyg]

Quick question...

Has there ever been a day when some "expert" somewhere did not write an article about an impending stock market crash?


Wars, the year 2000, the Asian bubble, SARS, birdflu, Oil, politics, D-day...The list goes on and on for excuses that the market will crash.


Any small little drop in the price of anything is an indication the 'experts' were right.

If the market goes up it is a WARNING that we are getting dangerously overvalued and closer to D-day.

These experts are never wrong....

With history as a comparison this bull run is into uncharted waters. Round and round it goes, where it stops no one knows.

 

[YChromozome]

Round and round it goes, where it stops no one knows.

It should stop next month - 100% certainly, I'm an expert.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

as if crashes are a common thing or likely to happen soon.

So you're an 'expert' predicting it's not going to happen? Blind faith for people who always assume the market will go UP!. Have a look at the chart - it's going vertical! All it means is that when a full blown correction/crash does come it's gonna be a doozy

And you are willing to bet your life savings on that?

 

[Kimosabi]

Now's the time to get in 100% plus as much Margin Loan as you can get, because look, it just keeps going up and up and up, it'll never end...

 

[numbercruncher]

Time to " Touch Wood " for starting a thread like this

 

[Wysiwyg]

So you're an 'expert' predicting it's not going to happen? Blind faith for people who always assume the market will go UP!. Have a look at the chart - it's going vertical! All it means is that when a full blown correction/crash does come it's gonna be a doozy

And you are willing to bet your life savings on that?

I read somewhere that the reason the markets will always go up is because more people are optimistic about life than pessimistic.Simple really.

 

[wayneL]

I read somewhere that the reason the markets will always go up is because more people are optimistic about life than pessimistic.Simple really.

Long term there is production, growth, inflation.

 

[numbercruncher]

Im no expert, Ive made reasonble money in the last few years from the Stock market and buying/selling a couple of houses, but i have this undeniable gut feeling or instinct that things are about to go really bad sometime soon ....

Ill still trade but my optimism has bottomed out lately, odd thing ....

Hope im wrong for the sake of all your geared folks etc.

 

[2020hindsight]

He wasnt wrong just early HAHA in this game its EXACTLY the same thing.

read a quote somewhere..
"it's just as sure a recipe for failure to have the right idea 6 months too soon as 6 weeks too late "

 

[theasxgorilla]

Long term there is production, growth, inflation.

I got the impression from the Michael Hudson stuff you posted on another thread that there is production, consumption and deflation in the REAL economy, and credit growth and asset price inflation in what he refered to as the FIR.

Another key thing he said: It can't go on forever, but nobody knows how long it can go on. He's smart enough to know that it's futile to predict the when...and in the meantime he puts his money into term deposits. I'm younger and dumber...I reckon I can pick the top just in time

 

[wayneL]

I got the impression from the Michael Hudson stuff you posted on another thread that there is production, consumption and deflation in the REAL economy, and credit growth and asset price inflation in what he refered to as the FIR.

Another key thing he said: It can't go on forever, but nobody knows how long it can go on. He's smart enough to know that it's futile to predict the when...and in the meantime he puts his money into term deposits. I'm younger and dumber...I reckon I can pick the top just in time

Yes. But my interpretation of that is that those factors are responsible for the acceleration of price over value, ergo, the current asset/debt bubble we find ourselves in.

Yet unless "value" is destroyed by war, declining population or something, value will continue to increase by virtue of the accumulative effect of production.

The question is whether/when price returns to, and possibly overshoots value to the downside.

That's just my take on it.