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IMO that is a good sign , the savvy are running to real safety , 3200 tonight in a brief burst ( before the usual smack-down ?)
Gold Price - Where is it heading?
- Thread starter guycharles
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| Price | Change | % Chg | ||
| Dow | 39,291.80 | -1,254.13 | -3.09% | |
| S&P 500 | 5,197.53 | -198.99 | -3.69% | |
| Nasdaq | 15,911.60 | -639.01 | -3.86% | |
| VIX | 36.06 | +6.04 | 20.12% | |
| Gold | 3,076.10 | -45.60 | -1.46% | |
| Oil | 61.34 | -5.61 | -8.38% |
according to Marketwatch currently
gold done as well ( but not as bad as some )
margin calls or capitulation ?
might not be a pretty sight in the morning
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Beware the gold naysayers as AUD POG rose strongly overnight on a massive fall in AUD value:
Australian-based gold miner such as Ramelius will not feel the USD POG price shock in their balance sheet, but the stock market on Monday will tell a different story. I will be looking to add RMS, but steer clear of the likes of NEM and EVN which have large overseas exposure.
Australian-based gold miner such as Ramelius will not feel the USD POG price shock in their balance sheet, but the stock market on Monday will tell a different story. I will be looking to add RMS, but steer clear of the likes of NEM and EVN which have large overseas exposure.
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if i remember correctly NST has some North American projects as well ( i hold EVN and NST 'free-carried' )
however in PMs i will be watching ZIM , which has gold and silver co-products in their ore mix )
BHP might be worth watching as well although not a main source of income they have gold exposure via Olympic Dam and the OZ Minerals acquisition
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GLD has now turned down so looking at the first area of technical price support it is easy to see that the 271 area is a place to watch. I've put a FIB fan on the chart to introduce possible time support, the 38.2% time & price line (gold line) is the first to intersect the 271 price zone.
Zooming right in on the daily chart the above mentioned time&price line passes through this zone between the 8th-15th of April. My description of what is on the chart is precise but the market will do whatever it wants, these are just broad areas that I'll be watching to see if the market reacts to them. How the market reacts to support and resistance is useful feedback. So far GLD is holding up strong compared to other markets and a turn back up at or above this zone would certainly confirm continued strength for GLD.
Zooming right in on the daily chart the above mentioned time&price line passes through this zone between the 8th-15th of April. My description of what is on the chart is precise but the market will do whatever it wants, these are just broad areas that I'll be watching to see if the market reacts to them. How the market reacts to support and resistance is useful feedback. So far GLD is holding up strong compared to other markets and a turn back up at or above this zone would certainly confirm continued strength for GLD.
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LOL.
Because you do not put tariffs on what now needs to be used as pristine collateral in global Eurodollar markets and elsewhere given Trump’s tariff moves and that will require gold moving much higher in coming months and quarters.
jog on
duc
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"Pristine collateral"
Last edited:
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was all that gold/silver coming into the US being bought on credit ?
or have other parties stopped accepting the US dollar as payment
also remember Basel III implementation is finally being implemented in the US
that allows physical gold to be held as an official 'liquid asset ' ( tier one capital )
there are a lot of cards being shuffled here
please note he does NOT use a doctored set of cards ( like many do )
or have other parties stopped accepting the US dollar as payment
also remember Basel III implementation is finally being implemented in the US
that allows physical gold to be held as an official 'liquid asset ' ( tier one capital )
there are a lot of cards being shuffled here
This BLIND Magician FOOLED Penn and Teller Penn and Teller Fool Us Richard Turner
#PennandTellerFoolUs This BLIND Magician FOOLED Penn and Teller Penn and Teller Fool Us Richard Turner https://youtu.be/8mdfFAyxG2Q https://youtu.be/x0rVufZT3jM https://youtu.be/x0rVufZT3jM https://youtu.be/r9XJCzwVVNQ https://youtu.be/lVoEQEIhq7M https://youtu.be/d4tksgwpQDA...
yewtu.be
please note he does NOT use a doctored set of cards ( like many do )
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On April 2, 2025, President Trump announced sweeping new tariffs with most trade partners. While the stated purpose was to rebalance trade and reduce the trade deficit (which is necessary), there are inter-related issues leading to this move that are not being discussed by Trump or the financial media.
Operating a hybrid market-based economy with centrally-planned debt currency creation and interest rates manipulation by its central bank is now at its practical limits.
Total US system debt stands at $102 trillion (T) and is increasing at 5% p.a. after decades of aggressive debt and currency expansion stimulating massive asset and financial bubbles and the stripping of wealth from working individuals and savers.
The US debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 340% vs the historic average of 150% that persisted for decades up to 1980 but now stubbornly elevated goods price inflation is starting to arc higher, once again.
The restructuring of the US economy by the Fed that made the economy debt-dependent now comes nose-to-nose with price inflation that is forcing interest rates higher.
The current 5% rise in interest rates since 2022 will add an additional $5T of interest payments to the US economy with time as borrowing rates reset and is unsustainable - yet the now-stalling speculative bubble operated by central bank monetary policies demands further debt-currency expansion.
The BRICS organization, founded in June 2009 just 6 months after the Fed started QE monetary policy, has now grown to 19 member and partner countries comprising 42% of global GDP and 55% of the world’s population.
Central to BRICS policy is their proposed new BRICS trade currency unit (literally, the BRICS ‘Unit’), that is proposed to include a 40% gold bullion allocation and will utilize block chain distributed ledger technology.
Even a 40% gold allocation will buttress the BRICS Unit vs. fiat currencies and that will, immediately upon its implementation, cause a problem for Western fiat currencies and associated bubble economies relegating these fiat currencies to BRICS something houses.
Although China has started purchasing some hydrocarbon energy with Yuan, the majority of the $306B of annual oil imports and, assuming a 7% average loan rate on China’s USD denominated debt, China’s USD debt servicing requires an additional $225B annually.
The KBW Bank Index (‘BKX’) dropped by 13% over April 3 and 4 after last week’s tariff announcement.
Figure 1 - KBW Bank Index (‘BKX’); source: StockCharts.com
The currency and trade conflict may escalate very quickly from here and lead to a global currency, bank, and debt restructuring - and much pain for those who do not own gold and silver.
Then the hangover/recovery from the multi-decade central bank bubble party.
jog on
duc
Debt Currency Impasse
The first issue is the unsustainability of the US economy using the debt-based currency system operated by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) central bank.Operating a hybrid market-based economy with centrally-planned debt currency creation and interest rates manipulation by its central bank is now at its practical limits.
Total US system debt stands at $102 trillion (T) and is increasing at 5% p.a. after decades of aggressive debt and currency expansion stimulating massive asset and financial bubbles and the stripping of wealth from working individuals and savers.
The US debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 340% vs the historic average of 150% that persisted for decades up to 1980 but now stubbornly elevated goods price inflation is starting to arc higher, once again.
The growth in the debt ratio reinforces the position of Austrian School economists who warned that attempting to grow an economy using fiat debt creation leads to consumption not supported by an increase in productive output of the economy. Ultimately it leads to currency and economic collapse if it is continued.
The restructuring of the US economy by the Fed that made the economy debt-dependent now comes nose-to-nose with price inflation that is forcing interest rates higher.
The current 5% rise in interest rates since 2022 will add an additional $5T of interest payments to the US economy with time as borrowing rates reset and is unsustainable - yet the now-stalling speculative bubble operated by central bank monetary policies demands further debt-currency expansion.
Risk to USD Reserve Currency Status
Because the US Dollar is the world’s reserve currency and is utilized for a large portion of global trade and commodity pricing, US central bank price inflation was exported globally.The BRICS organization, founded in June 2009 just 6 months after the Fed started QE monetary policy, has now grown to 19 member and partner countries comprising 42% of global GDP and 55% of the world’s population.
Central to BRICS policy is their proposed new BRICS trade currency unit (literally, the BRICS ‘Unit’), that is proposed to include a 40% gold bullion allocation and will utilize block chain distributed ledger technology.
Even a 40% gold allocation will buttress the BRICS Unit vs. fiat currencies and that will, immediately upon its implementation, cause a problem for Western fiat currencies and associated bubble economies relegating these fiat currencies to BRICS something houses.
China Now Has A Very Short Term Problem Potentially Leading To Rapid Demise Of the US Dollar
Each day, China imports 12 million barrels of oil. In addition, at the end of 2020 there were $12.7T of USD denominated loans outstanding globally with 25% or $3.2T of these loans (both bank debt and debt securities) owed by Chinese entities.Although China has started purchasing some hydrocarbon energy with Yuan, the majority of the $306B of annual oil imports and, assuming a 7% average loan rate on China’s USD denominated debt, China’s USD debt servicing requires an additional $225B annually.
Finally, some of the $12.7T of USD denominated foreign loans comprised of bank debt and loan securities sits on the balance sheets of US domiciled banks. If dollar scarcity debt defaults by foreign borrowers are triggered, US banks will not be unscathed.
The KBW Bank Index (‘BKX’) dropped by 13% over April 3 and 4 after last week’s tariff announcement.
 |
The currency and trade conflict may escalate very quickly from here and lead to a global currency, bank, and debt restructuring - and much pain for those who do not own gold and silver.
Then the hangover/recovery from the multi-decade central bank bubble party.
jog on
duc
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The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) continues to buy unprecedented amounts of gold as the global financial is deleveraging (i.e. investors exchange credit assets for gold).
In 2024, the Chinese central bank covertly bought 570 tonnes, encouraging gold’s ascent in global international reserves by 4%, the largest gain in four decades.
Legacy media outlets routinely withhold crucial information from investors by principally reporting on official data on gold purchases by monetary authorities. In reality, the Chinese central bank is buying many multiples of what it’s officially disclosing, and investors should take note.
Combine large purchases by the PBoC and other regional central banks with initiatives in the East to settle trade through non-dollar ventures like mBridgeand possibly gold stablecoins, and we should expect the international monetary system to continue shifting towards gold in the years ahead. Especially given today’s excessive debt levels, geopolitical tensions, and trade wars.
But it’s more difficult to get an accurate estimate of how much it owned at the start of the war so we can determine how much it owns now, in total. More on that later.
Let us start off with data from the World Gold Council’s (WGC) quarterly Gold Demand Trends reports on precious metal buying by central banks in aggregate. From the WGC:
By comparing the WGC’s quarterly estimates with official data from the IMF, a glaring disparity is revealed since 2022 when the war in Ukraine broke out.
Chart 1. The difference between WGC and IMF data reflects unreported central bank gold buying.
According to two sources familiar with the matter, but who prefer to stay anonymous, the difference is mainly caused by “unreported purchases” by the Chinese central bank.
My approach has always been to take eighty percent of the difference between WGC and IMF figures and label that as secretive Chinese buying.
For instance, using this approach, I calculated that the People's Bank of China acquired 280 tonnes during the third quarter of 2022.
In December 2022, the Financial Times published a similar estimate that confirms the accuracy of my sources and methodology:
Thus, if one has access to one or multiple nodes in this network, it can piggybank on their intelligence. More on this below.
Other evidence of the PBoC’s covert gold acquisitions is the surplus in the Chinese gold market since 2022.
In the past three years, China’s import plus domestic mine supply exceeded withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). As the SGE is the center gold bourse in China—through laws and tax incentives most supply and demand flows through this exchange—an observed surplus must reflect acquisitions by the local monetary authority.
Chart 2. I’ve checked with sources close to the SGE that tell me the giant surplus is not being accumulated in SGE vaults, so it must end up in the PBoC’s vaults.
Another piece of evidence is the gold exported directly from the London Bullion Market to China. Because in London gold trade is conducted in large 400-ounce bars, but on the SGE, the private sector only trades in 1-kilogram bars, any gold moving directly from the U.K. to China is destined for the Chinese central bank.
The smoking gun as to Chinese government stockpiling is when we see a continuation of large exports from Britain to China whilst gold in Shanghai is trading at a discount versus London.
Obviously, no bullion bank would buy gold in London to sell at a loss in China. What actually happens is that the PBoC buys gold in London and lets bullion banks transport the metal to Beijing. In these circumstances, bullion banks (not the PBoC) must deal with customs departments and so the flow of gold is recorded.
Chart 3. Gold exports of 400-ounce bars from the U.K. to China go straight to the PBoC. China’s central bank has surreptitiously bought 1,800 tonnes from Q3 2022 through the end of 2024, which is five times more than what’s officially reported.
We know how much gold it bought every quarter going back to 2010 when the WGC’s Gold Demand Trends data began. To get a ballpark estimate of how much it owns now, all we need is an estimate of how much it owned at any point in time since 2010.
I have been fortunate that on two occasions well connected industry insiders shared with me how much they thought the Chinese central bank owns. On the first occasion, in late 2015, an insider told me that from within his network, he tallied 3,300 tonnes. The second source was more conservative and conveyed in June of 2024 his estimate was approximately 4,000 tonnes at that time.
When I reverse engineer the second estimate to 2015, then take the average of the two estimates, and calculate what has been added per quarter ever since, it produces an outcome of 5,065 tonnes for the end of 2024.
So, to the best of my knowledge, 5,065 tonnes is the weight of fine gold that the Chinese central bank currently stores in the capital Beijing.
As virtually all new monetary gold buyers are located in the East, non-Western gold holdings are rising rapidly and have reached 45% of world gold reserves. The following chart is a perfect visual representation of the shift in global power towards the East.
Chart 4. Non-Western central banks nearly hold as much gold as their Western counterparts.
My personal estimates of world official gold reserves, combined with Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) data by the IMF, unveil gold’s percentage of global international reserves jumped up 4%, to 21%, in 2024. That’s the biggest surge in more than four decades.
Chart 5. Next to gold, small currencies (“other”) are also on the rise in international reserves.
Next time you read claims that there is no de-dollarization actually occurring, please urge the naive writer to include gold in his statistics as to foreign reserves!
jog on
duc
In 2024, the Chinese central bank covertly bought 570 tonnes, encouraging gold’s ascent in global international reserves by 4%, the largest gain in four decades.
Gargantuan Gold Purchases by the Chinese Central Bank
This article is an analysis of formal and informal sources that indicate the PBoC is currently sitting on more than 5,000 tonnes of monetary gold located in Beijing – more than TWICE what has been publicly admitted.Legacy media outlets routinely withhold crucial information from investors by principally reporting on official data on gold purchases by monetary authorities. In reality, the Chinese central bank is buying many multiples of what it’s officially disclosing, and investors should take note.
Combine large purchases by the PBoC and other regional central banks with initiatives in the East to settle trade through non-dollar ventures like mBridgeand possibly gold stablecoins, and we should expect the international monetary system to continue shifting towards gold in the years ahead. Especially given today’s excessive debt levels, geopolitical tensions, and trade wars.
China Is Secretively Buying 5x More Gold Than Is Reported
Since the Ukraine war began, data show, China’s central bank has been buying roughly five times more gold than what it discloses to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).But it’s more difficult to get an accurate estimate of how much it owned at the start of the war so we can determine how much it owns now, in total. More on that later.
Let us start off with data from the World Gold Council’s (WGC) quarterly Gold Demand Trends reports on precious metal buying by central banks in aggregate. From the WGC:
These confidential sources regarding unrecorded purchases and trade flow data are important themes in our present analysis, as there is no other way to ascertain what the PBoC does behind closed doors.
By comparing the WGC’s quarterly estimates with official data from the IMF, a glaring disparity is revealed since 2022 when the war in Ukraine broke out.
 |
According to two sources familiar with the matter, but who prefer to stay anonymous, the difference is mainly caused by “unreported purchases” by the Chinese central bank.
My approach has always been to take eighty percent of the difference between WGC and IMF figures and label that as secretive Chinese buying.
For instance, using this approach, I calculated that the People's Bank of China acquired 280 tonnes during the third quarter of 2022.
In December 2022, the Financial Times published a similar estimate that confirms the accuracy of my sources and methodology:
Gold industry insiders—whether working at bullion banks, mining companies, refineries, consultancy firms, or secure logistics companies—sometimes exchange information. It’s through these interactions that estimates are conceived about the volume of secret gold buying by the Chinese central bank.
Thus, if one has access to one or multiple nodes in this network, it can piggybank on their intelligence. More on this below.
Other evidence of the PBoC’s covert gold acquisitions is the surplus in the Chinese gold market since 2022.
In the past three years, China’s import plus domestic mine supply exceeded withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). As the SGE is the center gold bourse in China—through laws and tax incentives most supply and demand flows through this exchange—an observed surplus must reflect acquisitions by the local monetary authority.
 |
Another piece of evidence is the gold exported directly from the London Bullion Market to China. Because in London gold trade is conducted in large 400-ounce bars, but on the SGE, the private sector only trades in 1-kilogram bars, any gold moving directly from the U.K. to China is destined for the Chinese central bank.
The smoking gun as to Chinese government stockpiling is when we see a continuation of large exports from Britain to China whilst gold in Shanghai is trading at a discount versus London.
Obviously, no bullion bank would buy gold in London to sell at a loss in China. What actually happens is that the PBoC buys gold in London and lets bullion banks transport the metal to Beijing. In these circumstances, bullion banks (not the PBoC) must deal with customs departments and so the flow of gold is recorded.
 |
The PBoC Secretly Holds 5,000+ Tonnes of Gold
For dessert, let’s estimate how much gold the Chinese central bank owns in total.We know how much gold it bought every quarter going back to 2010 when the WGC’s Gold Demand Trends data began. To get a ballpark estimate of how much it owns now, all we need is an estimate of how much it owned at any point in time since 2010.
I have been fortunate that on two occasions well connected industry insiders shared with me how much they thought the Chinese central bank owns. On the first occasion, in late 2015, an insider told me that from within his network, he tallied 3,300 tonnes. The second source was more conservative and conveyed in June of 2024 his estimate was approximately 4,000 tonnes at that time.
When I reverse engineer the second estimate to 2015, then take the average of the two estimates, and calculate what has been added per quarter ever since, it produces an outcome of 5,065 tonnes for the end of 2024.
So, to the best of my knowledge, 5,065 tonnes is the weight of fine gold that the Chinese central bank currently stores in the capital Beijing.
China Lifts Gold in Global International Reserves
If we take into account the PBoC’s hidden gold reserves, as well as surreptitious additions by the Central Banks of Saudi Arabia and others, world official reserves reached an all-time high of 39,547 tonnes at the end of 2024.As virtually all new monetary gold buyers are located in the East, non-Western gold holdings are rising rapidly and have reached 45% of world gold reserves. The following chart is a perfect visual representation of the shift in global power towards the East.
 |
My personal estimates of world official gold reserves, combined with Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) data by the IMF, unveil gold’s percentage of global international reserves jumped up 4%, to 21%, in 2024. That’s the biggest surge in more than four decades.
 |
Next time you read claims that there is no de-dollarization actually occurring, please urge the naive writer to include gold in his statistics as to foreign reserves!
jog on
duc
Garpal Gumnut
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Gold looks to be a better bet than cash atm. It did fall under $3000.00 earlier this morning, but has recovered.
gg
gg
Garpal Gumnut
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China continues to increase it's Gold Reserves. A report today.
gg
PBOC boosts Gold reserves for the fifth consecutive month
The latest data published by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on Monday showed that the Chinese central bank increased its state Gold reserves for the fifth consecutive month.
www.fxstreet.com
gg
Garpal Gumnut
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While gold has kept many safe from the tariff market debacle it is worthwhile keeping a close eye on the charts and price as well as the AUD/USD exchange rate. For the first time in some time there has been a lower low in the POG just under $3000. This figure is good support for gold and it only got down about $30 under $3000 before buyers came in. Nonetheless this was a fall from the recent high at $3160 of about 6%. Many traders in other entities may be forced to sell their gold to pay margin loans or standover merchants for borrowings on stocks, futures and option losses. Or there may be profit taking or manipulation by the Chinese, Russian or North Korean cousins.
Fortunately our POG in $AUD has protected holders of gold as the $AUD has fallen in price against the $USD in which gold is quoted making up for falls. This may not continue and there is a real chance that gold, for so long a safe haven, may be affected vicariously by a general fall in asset values.
3 charts. Gold in $USD, Gold in $AUD and the AUD/USD chart. All the best for gold holders.
gg
Fortunately our POG in $AUD has protected holders of gold as the $AUD has fallen in price against the $USD in which gold is quoted making up for falls. This may not continue and there is a real chance that gold, for so long a safe haven, may be affected vicariously by a general fall in asset values.
3 charts. Gold in $USD, Gold in $AUD and the AUD/USD chart. All the best for gold holders.
gg
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Garpal Gumnut
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Yep. 2nd one was just to show the price. I couldn't find an $AUD pure price chart. I could have put a PMGOLD chart up but I couldn't be arsed for one MF who might notice @finicky .
And I'm dyslexic, have long covid, autism, aspergers, never had the clap, never been the same since my first salk polio vaccine, survived an American lunatic at a stoney drunken party with a big gun, PTSD and I'm deaf in one ear.
gg
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crikey ! are you my twin ?
gee i hope not, all your pub profits would disappear when you go on a binge
PS not so sure about the Salk effects , but i did have a major concussion not long after that ( caused by a concrete post )
Garpal Gumnut
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This article from kitco.com is typical of the bs that is dragged out in times like this. gold is falling in price. It is falling because people have margin loans on stocks and there is panic. So people sell, often because they've made a profit on gold. This commentator suggests that it won't fall any further. I don't believe that. If the other markets go, then gold will fall as well. Maybe not as much, but it will fall. I've revised my next support zone for gold. $2600. Not $2800 as I posited previously. If it fails at $2600 then it's back to $2000.
So it may or may not fall imo. Who knows? A 1 year chart of gold in $USD. Just one chart @finicky
gg
Gold is caught in a liquidity squeeze but can still get back above $3,000 - Standard Chartered’s Suki Cooper
The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.
www.kitco.com
So it may or may not fall imo. Who knows? A 1 year chart of gold in $USD. Just one chart @finicky
gg
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will fall below $1000 if the big banks can rig it ( so they can buy )This article from kitco.com is typical of the bs that is dragged out in times like this. gold is falling in price. It is falling because people have margin loans on stocks and there is panic. So people sell, often because they've made a profit on gold. This commentator suggests that it won't fall any further. I don't believe that. If the other markets go, then gold will fall as well. Maybe not as much, but it will fall. I've revised my next support zone for gold. $2600. Not $2800 as I posited previously. If it fails at $2600 then it's back to $2000.
Gold is caught in a liquidity squeeze but can still get back above $3,000 - Standard Chartered’s Suki Cooper
The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.www.kitco.com
So it may or may not fall imo. Who knows? A 1 year chart of gold in $USD. Just one chart @finicky
View attachment 197113
gg
and they will trot out the old stories about worthless relic
.. just nod and smile ( AND BE FITST IN LINE AT YOUR BULLION OUTLET so you can take it HOME with you )
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