Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Garpal Gumnut]

Having an audit done is only going to restore confidence to the market if the gold is actually all there. I give it a greater than 50% chance that it's not, and that becoming public knowledge would be catastrophic for the markets.

It really says a lot about this world when an underground vault containing Shrodinger's gold which either way will not be used for anything other than sitting there doing nothing, will cause such such a dramatic outcome if it is observed.

It is what it is, but the audits not happening for so long make me think the gold is gone. No one is ever going to steal it with a direct guns blazing robbery so stories like 'thieves may learn the layout if someone goes in to audit' are very silly excuses. Does anyone genuinely not see that a very, very lengthy period of 'That extraordinarily valuable stuff I'm guarding is totally still there, but I won't allow you to check, just believe me' is reason to think it's likely not there?

Thanks @Sdajii . I like the concept of Schrodinger’s Gold which is new to me. Historically gold was kept hidden from the masses only appearing when weapons needed to be bought or men paid for war. Nowadays the payments for war are run off spreadsheets so the Fort Knox as you allude to, could be anywhere, leased, mortgaged, stolen or turned in to paper.

gg

 

[Sdajii]

Thanks @Sdajii . I like the concept of Schrodinger’s Gold which is new to me. Historically gold was kept hidden from the masses only appearing when weapons needed to be bought or men paid for war. Nowadays the payments for war are run off spreadsheets so the Fort Knox as you allude to, could be anywhere, leased, mortgaged, stolen or turned in to paper.

gg

Glad you liked it, I just made it up on the spot while typing. Quite proud of it actually, I think I'll go buy myself an ice-cream as a reward. No sprinkles though because in my haste I misspelled Schrodinger; it did look wrong but I didn't bother to check.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Glad you liked it, I just made it up on the spot while typing. Quite proud of it actually, I think I'll go buy myself an ice-cream as a reward. No sprinkles though because in my haste I misspelled Schrodinger; it did look wrong but I didn't bother to check.

Pen a letter to the WSJ, I’m sure they would print it. Let me know should you do. It describes exactly the situation we are in without having to get a PhD in the Philosophy of Science or Finance. This is the story of my life, never a genius nor achieved great things, but close to those who did, which is really just as good.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/letter-to-the-editor-wsj-how-to-submit-wall-street-journal-guidelines-11647960749

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Once the criminals begin stealing Golden Loos you know the precious metal is on a tear higher.

Blenheim Palace £2.8m gold toilet stolen in minutes, court hears

Three men are standing trial over the theft of the gold toilet which had been part of an exhibition.

www.bbc.com

gg

 

[finicky]

never a genius nor achieved great things, but close to those who did,

You make me blush Garpal

 

[divs4ever]

It is what it is, but the audits not happening for so long make me think the gold is gone.

i am not sure about ( totally ) gone

but i suspect there are major anomalies , stolen gold , maybe , impure gold , probably some ( too many bars to test properly in earlier times )

now the question is , IF there are glaring anomalies , how long have some known about them

and also there is a major risk that others have ownership claims over some or all of the gold

 

[Sdajii]

i am not sure about ( totally ) gone

but i suspect there are major anomalies , stolen gold , maybe , impure gold , probably some ( too many bars to test properly in earlier times )

now the question is , IF there are glaring anomalies , how long have some known about them

and also there is a major risk that others have ownership claims over some or all of the gold

It's probably not *all* gone and sure, what's been removed has likely been replaced with fake bars rather than leaving empty space.

My guess it that those at the top have known for a long time and would rather leave it in the too hard basket, under the rug, waiting for some time in the distant future for it to be discovered, hence the lack of audits and transparency.

Given the fallout which would follow a public declaration of it being missing, I'd prefer it remain as Schroginger gold than a publicly observable audit. Sure, the price of gold would probably rally, and I have absolutely no doubt it would rally super hard in American dollars, but I'm not sure it would make any of our lives better.

I don't think most people realise how much their lives depend on the USA remaining in #1 position, or if they collapse and the current #2 runs the show, what level of genocidal horror they will experience. I don't especially like the USA, but the alternative is worse than our worst nightmares.

 

[qldfrog]

It's probably not *all* gone and sure, what's been removed has likely been replaced with fake bars rather than leaving empty space.

My guess it that those at the top have known for a long time and would rather leave it in the too hard basket, under the rug, waiting for some time in the distant future for it to be discovered, hence the lack of audits and transparency.

Given the fallout which would follow a public declaration of it being missing, I'd prefer it remain as Schroginger gold than a publicly observable audit. Sure, the price of gold would probably rally, and I have absolutely no doubt it would rally super hard in American dollars, but I'm not sure it would make any of our lives better.

I don't think most people realise how much their lives depend on the USA remaining in #1 position, or if they collapse and the current #2 runs the show, what level of genocidal horror they will experience. I don't especially like the USA, but the alternative is worse than our worst nightmares.

I so like the " truth over anything", and the price of my gold that it pains me..but..yep i agree.
Saying and preferring truth, a la Elon Musk is a personal experience that has had a heavy cost for a moral righteousness which is not worth it.most do not care, it is personal matter.
When dealing with the world, exposing the truth on largely empty stockpile would collapse the US and so the west, the financial system soon after and lead to worse that COVID pretext to restrict freedom here.
Keep the ball rolling, increase my real gold price

 

[Dona Ferentes]

missed the umlaut... ...Schrödinger

I liked it, too. Very good. pay that one gif

 

[qldfrog]

missed the umlaut... ...Schrödinger

I liked it, too. Very good. pay that one gif

We might rename the next black swan event the black cat !!!

 

[TimeISmoney]

 

[ducati916]

From JC;

​ ​ ​ ​ ​ If you’re serious about making real money, you need to be locked in on commodity supercycles — because that’s where the biggest, most violent trends happen. And here’s the thing — when these moves come, they come fast. Look at this chart from Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity): ​ Click the chart to enlarge it. Sugar +2,239% Silver +1,158% WTI Crude +1,365% Nickel, Palladium, Tin — absolute face-rippers. These aren’t your little 5-10% swings. These are generational trades. Miss them, and you’re sitting on the sidelines while others print money. This is why we hunt outliers. We don’t waste time on mediocre setups. We don’t care about stocks grinding 10% higher. We’re here for the big game — markets that can 10x. And then we hit the gas. Step 1: Identify the Big Cycles – Commodities don’t creep higher. They explode. If you’re not positioned before the move, you’re already late. Step 2: Follow Price, Not the BS – Fundamentals? Narratives? No thanks. While everyone argues, we trade what’s in front of us—price ripping higher. Step 3: Ride It Until It Stops – The key to catching outlier trades? You stay in the damn trend. The biggest mistake traders make? Cutting winners early and holding onto losers like idiots. You want to win in this game? Stop making excuses. Stop overcomplicating it. Follow price. Get paid.

We've been talking about the odds of shiny rocks outpacing stocks — and it's a theme that’s as consistent as it is powerful in every precious metals bull market. Another classic twist in these cycles is mining stocks outperforming gold. And here's the kicker: we believe that’s about to happen. Plus, we expect the entire precious metals complex to move explosively. We haven't seen that surge yet, but we're on the lookout. Now, take a look at palladium futures. The setup is as juicy as anything out there. Check out this chart:

​

Click the chart to enlarge it.

On the chart, we've highlighted key moments over the past decade when commercial hedgers were flat — historically a fantastic time to buy. Conversely, when they hit an extreme net-short position, it’s typically a red flag to consider selling. So, what about now? Right now, the commercials have never owned as much palladium as they do today. That tells us one thing: they believe the product is cheap. With palladium down over 70% from its 2022 peak, the discount is undeniable. But here's the nuance — we're not jumping in just because of the discount. The real question is: How do we time our entry? We're waiting for the commercial hedgers to flip back to a net-short position, and that moment will trigger our entry. It could be this month, this quarter, or even later this year — we don't know for sure, and that's why we're staying flexible. That said, when the commercials turn net-short again, we suspect palladium futures will be a screaming buy.

“… “The demand for physical gold in the US has increased dramatically,” says Christoph Wild, President of the Swiss Association of Precious Metal Manufacturers and Traders. It is driven in part by fears of import tariffs in the US and geopolitical uncertainty. …

… The daily output of cast bars from a Swiss gold refinery is estimated at between two and four tons, says Wild. “But it is difficult to obtain the necessary quantities of gold for production at reasonable conditions—there are supply bottlenecks.” …”

Article: «Gold fliegt erste Klasse»: Schweizer Schmelzen laufen wegen Trump auf Hochtouren ("Gold flies first class" – Swiss refineries running at full capacity due to Trump)

SonntagsZeitung, February 24, 2025 - English translation here.

---

World leading Swiss gold refineries are today unable to access sufficient quantities of gold despite the above-ground global gold stock of 6.8 billion (B) oz.

Over the past month, numerous hand-waving arguments have been made as to why delays of shipping leased gold from the Bank of England (BoE) vaults, that are used by the London promissory note cash/spot gold market as a last-ditch resource when market participants are required to make delivery, are the problem.

Since early December 2024, approximately 28 million (M) oz. of gold have arrived in NY COMEX vaults with some market participants estimating a similar amount again believed to be deposited to non-public vaults elsewhere in the US during this period. The data are unclear.

The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) recently stated that approximately half of the gold transfer to the COMEX came from London vaults. LBMA data indicate that 6M oz. of gold have been withdrawn from London vaults in December 2024 and January 2025. If so we can anticipate another 8M oz. draw-down on LBMA vault gold holdings with delivery delays estimated to be 8 weeks.

So a 6M oz. draw to date and an anticipated 14M oz. draw of gold bars in total from London vaults over a estimated 3 to 4 month delivery period has jammed the gears of the London gold market.
But what about incremental gold delivery demand today, next week, next month, etc. from the estimated total 400M oz. of claims standing in the cash market at the beginning of 2025?
The entire world has seen what has happened and we can anticipate that further holders of the excellent London spot/cash gold promissory notes are also going to ask for delivery.
And the physical gold leased from the BoE is also supposed to be returned with interest.

LBMA data indicate that 1,055 tonnes (34M oz.) of the gold held in London - see the green shaded area in Figure 1 - is the ‘float’ of gold in the City of London’s gold market.

However, we’ve now seen that the ‘free float’ which is the portion of the gold float directly available for delivery against the estimated remaining 385M oz. of spot/cash London promissory notes for gold is today near zero.

Gold in vaults is far different from gold available for market delivery.

​

Figure 1 - London Vault Holdings of Gold at January 31, 2025; source: LBMA / GoldChartsRUs.com

Famine Stalks The World As Fiat’s Global Failure Now Accelerates​

The London gold market chaos is just the proximal signal of an increasingly tight global gold market that has developed over decades.

The ultimate cause of today’s global gold market failure is initiation of trading leveraged gold promissory notes in London (the world’s largest physical gold market) starting in 1987 along with the well-documented off-balance-sheet gold leasing programs by central banks in 1990s that paralyzed the gold price signal for decades while central bankers proclaimed the sequentially larger debt and asset bubbles that they were blowing were ‘beneficial inflation’. Beneficial for whom?

We can see in Figure 2 that the decades of central bank currency inflation has been sweeping into gold and food (‘agri’) commodities on a secular basis. It wasn’t Trump.
Food commodities represent a small percent of the world’s financial markets and as capital continues to move from intangible investment assets, into which monetary inflation was temporarily diverted, and into real goods like gold and food stuffs, we will increasingly see food poverty and famine show its face - in the West.
The rigged gold and silver markets are about to explode higher in price as they release from the multi-decade market fraud- and they will have company.

​

Figure 2 - Agri Commodities vs Gold; source: gold.topdowncharts.com / Callum Thomas

Thank your central planners - they are your central destroyers.




jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks @ducati916 .

Moving out to the macro level there is an interesting article on kitco.com summarising the settling somewhat of the war-risk-on presently occurring with Trump's efforts geopolitically and in particular in Ukraine. The fear for gold bugs is that a settling of wars will cause a fall in the gold price. The article further looks at the role of central banks globally in increasing their gold holdings which the article suggests will replace the "war story". I didn't realise that gold composes less than 5% of total Chinese Treasury holdings. No wonder they are still buying. The all time high reached earlier this week provided profit takers with a good opportunity to pocket some handy gains. Perhaps I should have done the same but it is difficult to sell when the bull runs close to a significant number such as $3000.

Gold is still on course to hit $3,000, but new drivers are more dynamic - WisdomTree’s Shah

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.

www.kitco.com

gg

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Step 3: Ride It Until It Stops – The key to catching outlier trades? You stay in the damn trend. The biggest mistake traders make? Cutting winners early and holding onto losers like idiots. You want to win in this game? Stop making excuses. Stop overcomplicating it. Follow price. Get paid.

Well Said
I'd only change One Thing

Step 3 Should read
Step 1 and Step 2 also
Or
"The Trend is Your Friend until She Isn't"
NB :; Lots of people Get Paid by the Word

 

[rederob]

Not that it's important now that Trump got his knickers in a knot over his failure to win-over Zelenskyy a few hours ago, but the reports about a so-called $500B rare earths package being a bargaining chip in these peace talks are based on zero geological data.

POG looks like bouncing back after the market decided Trump's style of negotiation failed to work on person with a functional brain.

 

[mullokintyre]

Interesting that some folks think that Trump failed to win over Zelensky.
I would have thought it was the other way around.
Trump has no need of Zelensky or Ukraine, however, Ukraine and Zelensky have a great need for the support from Trump and the USA.
Mick

 

[farmerge]

Interesting that some folks think that Trump failed to win over Zelensky.
I would have thought it was the other way around.
Trump has no need of Zelensky or Ukraine, however, Ukraine and Zelensky have a great need for the support from Trump and the USA.
Mick

@mullokintyre With The trumpet's version of events re Russia v Ukraine.
Ukraine is the aggressor and invaded Russia, his now newest and greatest mate, Putrid.
I seem to be missing something from 3 years ago.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks @rederob for that post on Ukraine and POG, I am reminded of a post of yours in early Nov. '24 of how well the POG performed under the latter years of Trump One.

gg

 

[qldfrog]

@mullokintyre With The trumpet's version of events re Russia v Ukraine.
Ukraine is the aggressor and invaded Russia, his now newest and greatest mate, Putrid.
I seem to be missing something from 3 years ago.

I think you just miss the 8 years
before.... the various broken promises/treaties due to EU incompetence and Biden family clique
Definitely not a black and white issue....

 

[divs4ever]

Not that it's important now that Trump got his knickers in a knot over his failure to win-over Zelenskyy a few hours ago, but the reports about a so-called $500B rare earths package being a bargaining chip in these peace talks are based on zero geological data.

POG looks like bouncing back after the market decided Trump's style of negotiation failed to work on person with a functional brain.

View attachment 194426

now the commentators i listen to had already cast doubt on the Ukraine rare earth minerals ( still in territory controlled by Ukraine ) BUT did note the deal now includes the Ukrainian oil and gas resources ( which are largely undeveloped ) AND infrastructure ( probably the ports )

Russia has already annexed the big coal mine and coking plant and the big salt mine