Trump 2.0

[Knobby22]

Trumps tariffs on steel and aluminium will have a direct effect on a firm in Dandenong and also the aluminium facilities in Portland. (Not sure about other states)
Fingers crossed he lets us off them. I am scared he will ask us to do something else though.

We just paid them $800 million to expand their port facilities. Feels a bit like a one way deal already. If the USA needs the subs, we won't even see them.

 

[moXJO]

Yes, like the Teals Climate 200 and the Animal Justice Party.

Teals are just the greens from snobby areas. We need actual independents. Teals were always a joke.
I don't want Dutton in power, I also dislike Labor a lot. It's a very bad choice this election. I'd be inclined to vote libs if they don't cause problems on China trade like they did last time.

 

[JohnDe]

Teals are just the greens from snobby areas. We need actual independents. Teals were always a joke.

That may be the case, but they are still 'independents'.

An independent is a member of the Australian Parliament who does not belong to a political party. An independent can be a senator or a member of the House of Representatives. Independent senators represent their state or territory and independent members of the House represent an electorate. Independents sit on the seats that curve around at the end of the Senate and House. These seats are called the crossbench. ​

​

Independents - Parliamentary Education Office

An independent is a member of the Australian Parliament who does not belong to a political party. This fact sheet explores their role and how they can vote in the Parliament.

peo.gov.au

​

 

[JohnDe]

The initial reaction from markets was surprisingly muted. The Aussie dollar, Mexican peso, Canadian dollar and Australian stocks mostly recovered from intraday falls even as the US dollar and gold rose.​

​

But when it comes to international trade, global markets may have been lulled into a false sense of security by the fact that Trump so far hasn’t done anywhere near as much as he said he would do.​

Markets complacent as fresh tariff risks loom from Trump’s plans

Uncertainty about US trade policy came back to the fore as US President Donald Trump flagged announcements this week on reciprocal tariffs and 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium.
Both the steel and aluminium tariffs and the reciprocal tariffs – first announced on Friday – will be effective immediately after formal announcements on Monday and Tuesday or Wednesday respectively, Trump told reporters on Sunday.

The initial reaction from markets was surprisingly muted. The Aussie dollar, Mexican peso, Canadian dollar and Australian stocks mostly recovered from intraday falls even as the US dollar and gold rose.

But when it comes to international trade, global markets may have been lulled into a false sense of security by the fact that Trump so far hasn’t done anywhere near as much as he said he would do.

He promptly cancelled 25 per cent tariffs on Columbia this month after it agreed to accept deportation flights.

With equal haste he delayed 25 per cent tariffs on Mexico and Canada by one month after both countries agreed to strengthen their borders against illegal fentanyl and human trafficking.

Those concessions strengthened the perception that the US President sees tariffs as a strategic negotiating tool.

During the first Trump administration, Australia avoided being hit by a similar Trump tariff of steel and aluminium under a deal brokered by the-then Turnbull government.

But while less than previously threatened, additional US tariffs on China went ahead last Tuesday – prompting a retaliation from China that could yet see further tariff increases by the US.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Chinese officials are building a list of US technology companies that can be targeted with antitrust probes and other tools, hoping to influence the tech executives who are heavily represented in President Donald Trump’s orbit.

People familiar with Beijing’s strategy said the goal was to collect as many cards as possible to play in expected negotiations with the Trump administration over US-China issues, including the new tariffs imposed on Chinese goods.

Beijing has already said it is investigating Nvidia and Google over alleged antitrust issues.

Other American companies in its sights include Apple, Silicon Valley technology giant Broadcom and semiconductor-design software vendor Synopsys.

Trump warned last week that tariffs on the EU will “definitely happen” and “pretty soon”.

The outcome of a review of US trade policies due on April 1st.

It’s hard not to conclude that a global trade war is just getting started.

Franklin Templeton Institute head Stephen Dover says investors are bracing for significant shifts in the global economy as new tariffs threaten to escalate trade tensions with key partners, increasing the risk of a full-scale trade war that could disrupt supply chains and increase economic volatility.

Of course the durability of any tariffs remains in question.

However, corporate decision making will be complicated by uncertainty about whether the US is using tariffs as a strategic negotiating tool or whether they signal the start of a global trade war, particularly regarding capital investment, supply chain restructuring and hiring strategies.

“While some domestic producers stand to benefit from reduced foreign competition, companies that rely on tariffed imports- especially those dependent on raw materials- face profit margin pressures,” Mr Dover said. “While several pro-business policies have been implemented since inauguration, the unpredictability of tariff policy could dampen those positives.”

Dover underscores the commitment to restoring US manufacturing, as evidenced by proposed strong tariffs on Chinese imports and 10-20 per cent universal tariffs on all imported products.

“The administration’s actions, even toward allies like Canada and Mexico, highlight a serious push to increase domestic production,” he said.

Such a shift may also broaden the US stock market’s performance, particularly benefiting small-cap companies that operate primarily within the US and have limited reliance on international trade.

But unlike the 1930s, when Smoot-Hawley tariffs exacerbated the Great Depression, the US has a stable money supply, low taxes, business friendly regulations and a more effective Federal Reserve.

Dover says the Fed will act aggressively to manage any fallout from a tariff war.

“The Fed’s vigilance will be key, and we expect it to maintain a data-driven approach to navigate these uncertainties.”

US Fed chair Jerome Powell is due to present his monetary policy testimony in the US on Wednesday. US CPI data are due for release on Thursday.

It comes after the US 10-year bond yield rose 6 basis points to 4.49 per cent on Friday, contributing to a selloff in stocks, after the unemployment rate fell and one-year inflation expectations in the University of Michigan survey rose to a more than two-year high of 4.3 per cent.

“Markets dynamics remain driven by the evolution of the AI complex, the intricacies of US policies, and the Federal Reserve’ asymmetrical (dovish) bias,” said J.P. Morgan Head of Cross Asset Strategy, Fabio Bassi.

Recent volatility around DeepSeek and tariff jitters haven’t derailed his positive outlook on risk assets, especially in the US. Over the short term, he sees lingering volatility on tariff headlines before the April 1st trade review, but keeps his 6,500 as S&P 500 year-end target.

“Overall, we find the broadening of the AI theme and the broadening of the equity rally as positive factors for risk sentiment,” Mr Bassi said. “The uncertainty around tariffs will linger, despite recent delays to Canada and Mexico, and could weigh on sentiment, although we are open-minded regarding the final objective and the negotiation approach.

“Securing concessions from trading partners appears to be a key goal in the tariff negotiations and could prove crucial for Europe and China.”

A dovish Fed outlook wasn’t challenged by the US jobs data and remains an “anchor of our bullish outlook on risk asset” with the CPI is expected to further validate this narrative.

“A shift back to a story of soft landing with additional Fed easing will provide a further boost to sentiment, potentially also unleashing capital markets activity,” Mr Bassi added.

 

[mullokintyre]

A while back there was a court case where a Judge accused Trump of overstating the value of his land in Florida, Mar-a-Lago.
It would seem that based on the following listing, he may have understaed it.
But then, Judges in New York have always had a good handle on property values in Florida.
There will be some fool with too much money who will buy it.
New York Post
Mick

 

[IFocus]

If the tariffs stand against Australian exports to the US then an Australian patriots law should be passed that all Australian Trump supporters should be charged with treason and deported immediately to the US.

 

[mullokintyre]

If Trump is serious about protecting American steel , perhaps he needs to be somewhat selective in his tariff imposition.
Canada and Mexico account for 40%, but does he really want to piss off Brazil, South Korea, Vietnam et al?
Once again, i reckon its another bluff deal, and some compromise will be worked out.
The art of making the deal.
Mick

 

[Knobby22]

If Trump is serious about protecting American steel , perhaps he needs to be somewhat selective in his tariff imposition.
Canada and Mexico account for 40%, but does he really want to piss off Brazil, South Korea, Vietnam et al?
Once again, i reckon its another bluff deal, and some compromise will be worked out.
The art of making the deal.
Mick
View attachment 193057

He has to pay for the many trillion dollar tax cuts and Musk’s help will hardly wet the sides of the money bucket.

I guarantee you tariffs are coming, and there will be a lot of them.

Look 50 seconds in for more details.

Monday Finance with Alan Kohler

News from the world of finance and business. Top stories in text, video and audio. Business video news bulletin. Features and analysis.

www.abc.net.au

 

[JohnDe]

He has to pay for the many trillion dollar tax cuts and Musk’s help will hardly wet the sides of the money bucket.

I guarantee you tariffs are coming, and there will be a lot of them.

Look 50 seconds in for more details.

Monday Finance with Alan Kohler

News from the world of finance and business. Top stories in text, video and audio. Business video news bulletin. Features and analysis.

www.abc.net.au

While you’re at it, can you give me the lotto numbers?

 

[Knobby22]

While you’re at it, can you give me the lotto numbers?

Is your brain hurting?