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India's stock market might be running out of steam.
Has the gloss worn off?
Mick
Has the gloss worn off?
Mick
India: the new China
- Thread starter Lucky_Country
- Start date
Dona Ferentes
Pengurus pengatur
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is this the de facto India thread ?
here's a bit of hype , ...
Many people still don't grasp just how quickly India is moving.
The new Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) will be completed in the next few years. The $100 billion project started in 2007 and has seen significant Japanese investment since the start. Stretching approximately 1,500 kilometers between the capital city Delhi (metro pop. of 34M) and India's financial capital Mumbai (metro pop. of 21M, this initiative will enhance connectivity and stimulate economic growth by developing smart cities, industrial parks along a new Delhi–Mumbai Expressway and the new Western Dedicated Freight Corridor (railway).
The 1350 km 8-lane wide (expandable to 12-lane) expressway connecting the two mega-cities will be completed next year and will reduce the travel time from 24h to 11h.
The 1500 km Western Dedicated Freight Corridor (WDFC) will also be completed in 2025. The high-speed line will support freight trains reaching 1,500 m (4,900 ft) length pulled by electric locomotives running at speeds greater than 100 km/h (62 mph).The tracks will be entirely grade-separated and have a generous loading gauge of 3,660 mm width and 7,100 mm maximum height allowing for double-stacked shipping containers to be transported on flatcars. This allows for single trains to have a 400+-container capacity.
The corridor will reduce the travel time for containers from 50 hr, by the existing freight train, to 17 hr while significantly increasing the transport capacity on the route as well as decreasing transport costs.
The DMIC megaproject also incorporates 9 Mega Industrial zones of about 200-250 sq. km, 3 ports, 6 airports and a 4000 MW power plant.
India is rapidly outpacing China in both demographic and economic growth.The 21st century won't be the Chinese century. It will be the Indian century.
here's a bit of hype , ...
Many people still don't grasp just how quickly India is moving.
The new Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) will be completed in the next few years. The $100 billion project started in 2007 and has seen significant Japanese investment since the start. Stretching approximately 1,500 kilometers between the capital city Delhi (metro pop. of 34M) and India's financial capital Mumbai (metro pop. of 21M, this initiative will enhance connectivity and stimulate economic growth by developing smart cities, industrial parks along a new Delhi–Mumbai Expressway and the new Western Dedicated Freight Corridor (railway).
The 1350 km 8-lane wide (expandable to 12-lane) expressway connecting the two mega-cities will be completed next year and will reduce the travel time from 24h to 11h.
The 1500 km Western Dedicated Freight Corridor (WDFC) will also be completed in 2025. The high-speed line will support freight trains reaching 1,500 m (4,900 ft) length pulled by electric locomotives running at speeds greater than 100 km/h (62 mph).The tracks will be entirely grade-separated and have a generous loading gauge of 3,660 mm width and 7,100 mm maximum height allowing for double-stacked shipping containers to be transported on flatcars. This allows for single trains to have a 400+-container capacity.
The corridor will reduce the travel time for containers from 50 hr, by the existing freight train, to 17 hr while significantly increasing the transport capacity on the route as well as decreasing transport costs.
The DMIC megaproject also incorporates 9 Mega Industrial zones of about 200-250 sq. km, 3 ports, 6 airports and a 4000 MW power plant.
India is rapidly outpacing China in both demographic and economic growth.The 21st century won't be the Chinese century. It will be the Indian century.
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I've ridden motorbikes all my life and an Indian sourced bike was never on my list, however as this was going to be my last motorbike I didn't want to spend a stupid amount of money so bought a Royal Enfield Interceptor 650.
The improvement in manufacturing is just amazing, anyone that thinks India can't compete with the first world or China, is dreaming.
No doubt increasing scale will be an issue, but with the China risk, India will definitely get more business IMO.
Royal Enfield's 650s Were the Best-Selling Bikes In Europe Last Month - webBikeWorld
Royal Enfield Has Some Real Winners The INT650 and the Continental GT from Royal Enfield are lovely machines. Jim and I reviewed the INT650 last year. It’s a nice motorcycle at a very reasonable price and has a good warranty. I’d buy one if I were looking for a middleweight retro motorcycle, and...
www.webbikeworld.com
Hayabusa To Super Meteor: Top 10 Most-Selling Premium Bikes In India
India's bike market is fueled by a rising demand for high-performance and premium motorcycles. Here are the top 10 best-selling premium bikes dominating the Indian roads:
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i think the wake-up call there was a few years back when they ( some of the public ) realized an Indian assembled BMW has a substantial numbers of extra hours dedicated to quality control , one might have thought BMW would have found it cost-effective to have to Indian assembly plants at least equal ( or more modern ) to their European counterparts .
so not a quantum leap for a manufacturer proud of their reputation , to make/assemble quality products in India , however one might ask whether logistics in still a bottle neck ( as it seems to be in Vietnam )
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They are working on it, but power shortage, blocked roads and railways, and the class system.
It will be different.
If you have a factory in india, how long for the outputs and inputs to reach your site/,be delivered.
It may come but you need at least 2 decades probably not in my lifetime.
But for cheap tees shoes etc
India is competition for Vietnam, not so sure China for a while..
And the bureaucracy...
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Of interest:
How to Profit From a Pause in India's Booming Stock Market -- Barrons.com
Share with others
By Reshma Kapadia
Indian stocks have had almost as impressive a run as the U.S. market. Investors who feared they missed their chance could have an opportunity to get in as the bull market takes a breather.
The MSCI India has averaged a 21.8% annual gain since March 2000 -- just behind the 22.7% gain logged by the S&P 500.
As global investors soured on China as its economy sputtered amid Covid and geopolitical tensions, many gravitated to India. They found an economy remade by a decade of reforms and aggressive investment in infrastructure. That energized entrepreneurs, supported a burgeoning middle-class, and made India a more attractive manufacturing destination for global companies looking for an alternative to China.
But while most strategists expect the U.S. bull market to keep charging ahead into 2025, the Indian market has started to lose momentum. Some veteran investors waved the caution flag in recent months as euphoria infused the market. The country's red-hot initial public offering market raised more than $16 billion this past year, more than double the take of the year before. Hyundai Motor's India subsidiary raised a record $3.3 billion in the market but the stock fell after its October debut.
"We are setting up for a major correction in India," predicts Ajay Krishnan, who manages Wasatch Emerging India and Wasatch Emerging Markets Select. "There is a lot of froth, with cement companies and low-quality banks trading at 50 times earnings as companies chase what has worked."
Indian stocks have started to pull back, with the MSCI India down 7%TK since September. Yet the market is still pricer than the S&P 500, at 23.8 times forward earnings compared with 23 times for the S&P 500.
And growth, while still stellar compared with much of the world, is beginning to slow in the world's most populous country.
Pranjul Bhandari, chief economist of India and Indonesia for HSBC, said in a note to clients that India's growth is slowing from 7.5% to 8% over the past couple of years toward 6.5%. After Covid, much of the growth has been fueled by spending from the government, but authorities are now shifting their focus to shoring up the country's fiscal health and pulling back on investment.
"You really need the [spending] baton to shift to the private sector. That is key for sustainability of this cycle. The public sector is done with the heavy lifting," says Jitania Kandhari, head of macro and thematic research for Morgan Stanley Investment Management's emerging markets equity team.
Weakening growth and high valuations pose a risk, at least near-term, to the bull market. "The equity market rally has been led by domestic investors but we are starting to see early signs of waning enthusiasm," says Shumita Deveshwar, chief India economist at GlobalData TS Lombard.
One area investors are monitoring is the health of the consumer. While rural consumers have been reluctant to spend and are rebuilding their savings after a relatively strong crop season, signs are emerging of weakening consumption among city dwellers, which account for a third of GDP.
Consumer credit is weakening and wages in high-paying sectors have softened. Consumer staples giant Hindustan Unilever reported anemic underlying volume growth of 3% in the second quarter, below that of parent company Unilever for the first time in a decade, says Ramiz Chelat, a manager at Vontobel Asset Management.
"If the slowdown is related to weaker employment growth, that would be a concern and indicate the broadening of growth beyond infrastructure and property capex oriented parts of the market isn't happening," he says.
But there are buffers that could limit a slowdown and market pullback. Strategists note that foreign investors have pared their holdings and are largely neutral on India.
On the economic front, Kandhari notes that companies have strong balance sheets and the banking system is flush with liquidity. Plus, the Reserve Bank of India has moved from tightening policy to a more neutral stance, which could boost growth in the second quarter.
Even those who see room for a pullback near-term are upbeat about the longer term outlook. Krishnan notes that manufacturing is taking hold, which will create jobs and its own momentum over the-long-term. For example, Tata Group is trying to rival contract supplier Foxconn Technology and has taken stakes in companies that Apple is using to build its products in India.
While Krishnan sees potential stress in some consumer-oriented companies, he expects higher-quality financial companies like Bajaj Finance and HDFC Bank to do well next year. Chelat also favors financial companies, including ICICI Bank, which is seeing midteens loan growth as it takes market share from rivals. It trades at about 17 to 18 times earnings.
If the government is able to push for more deregulation and make another go at structural reforms that focuses on improving education and the job prospects of its young burgeoning workforce, it could re-energize the market, Deveshwar says.
Jorry Noeddekaer, lead manager who oversees an emerging markets strategy for Polar Capital, pared his allocation to India earlier in the year as stocks hit the fund's targets, diversifying to more attractive opportunities in the U.S. and elsewhere.
More recently, he has used the pullback in India to buy back some stocks. Noeddekaer, however, is tempering expectations: "India is less of a standout now on a relative level than some years back and we don't expect, in the near-term, to go back to the very high overweight we had in the past."
Write to Reshma Kapadia at reshma.kapadia@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Hope this us ok to reproduce that article
How to Profit From a Pause in India's Booming Stock Market -- Barrons.com
Share with others
By Reshma Kapadia
Indian stocks have had almost as impressive a run as the U.S. market. Investors who feared they missed their chance could have an opportunity to get in as the bull market takes a breather.
The MSCI India has averaged a 21.8% annual gain since March 2000 -- just behind the 22.7% gain logged by the S&P 500.
As global investors soured on China as its economy sputtered amid Covid and geopolitical tensions, many gravitated to India. They found an economy remade by a decade of reforms and aggressive investment in infrastructure. That energized entrepreneurs, supported a burgeoning middle-class, and made India a more attractive manufacturing destination for global companies looking for an alternative to China.
But while most strategists expect the U.S. bull market to keep charging ahead into 2025, the Indian market has started to lose momentum. Some veteran investors waved the caution flag in recent months as euphoria infused the market. The country's red-hot initial public offering market raised more than $16 billion this past year, more than double the take of the year before. Hyundai Motor's India subsidiary raised a record $3.3 billion in the market but the stock fell after its October debut.
"We are setting up for a major correction in India," predicts Ajay Krishnan, who manages Wasatch Emerging India and Wasatch Emerging Markets Select. "There is a lot of froth, with cement companies and low-quality banks trading at 50 times earnings as companies chase what has worked."
Indian stocks have started to pull back, with the MSCI India down 7%TK since September. Yet the market is still pricer than the S&P 500, at 23.8 times forward earnings compared with 23 times for the S&P 500.
And growth, while still stellar compared with much of the world, is beginning to slow in the world's most populous country.
Pranjul Bhandari, chief economist of India and Indonesia for HSBC, said in a note to clients that India's growth is slowing from 7.5% to 8% over the past couple of years toward 6.5%. After Covid, much of the growth has been fueled by spending from the government, but authorities are now shifting their focus to shoring up the country's fiscal health and pulling back on investment.
"You really need the [spending] baton to shift to the private sector. That is key for sustainability of this cycle. The public sector is done with the heavy lifting," says Jitania Kandhari, head of macro and thematic research for Morgan Stanley Investment Management's emerging markets equity team.
Weakening growth and high valuations pose a risk, at least near-term, to the bull market. "The equity market rally has been led by domestic investors but we are starting to see early signs of waning enthusiasm," says Shumita Deveshwar, chief India economist at GlobalData TS Lombard.
One area investors are monitoring is the health of the consumer. While rural consumers have been reluctant to spend and are rebuilding their savings after a relatively strong crop season, signs are emerging of weakening consumption among city dwellers, which account for a third of GDP.
Consumer credit is weakening and wages in high-paying sectors have softened. Consumer staples giant Hindustan Unilever reported anemic underlying volume growth of 3% in the second quarter, below that of parent company Unilever for the first time in a decade, says Ramiz Chelat, a manager at Vontobel Asset Management.
"If the slowdown is related to weaker employment growth, that would be a concern and indicate the broadening of growth beyond infrastructure and property capex oriented parts of the market isn't happening," he says.
But there are buffers that could limit a slowdown and market pullback. Strategists note that foreign investors have pared their holdings and are largely neutral on India.
On the economic front, Kandhari notes that companies have strong balance sheets and the banking system is flush with liquidity. Plus, the Reserve Bank of India has moved from tightening policy to a more neutral stance, which could boost growth in the second quarter.
Even those who see room for a pullback near-term are upbeat about the longer term outlook. Krishnan notes that manufacturing is taking hold, which will create jobs and its own momentum over the-long-term. For example, Tata Group is trying to rival contract supplier Foxconn Technology and has taken stakes in companies that Apple is using to build its products in India.
While Krishnan sees potential stress in some consumer-oriented companies, he expects higher-quality financial companies like Bajaj Finance and HDFC Bank to do well next year. Chelat also favors financial companies, including ICICI Bank, which is seeing midteens loan growth as it takes market share from rivals. It trades at about 17 to 18 times earnings.
If the government is able to push for more deregulation and make another go at structural reforms that focuses on improving education and the job prospects of its young burgeoning workforce, it could re-energize the market, Deveshwar says.
Jorry Noeddekaer, lead manager who oversees an emerging markets strategy for Polar Capital, pared his allocation to India earlier in the year as stocks hit the fund's targets, diversifying to more attractive opportunities in the U.S. and elsewhere.
More recently, he has used the pullback in India to buy back some stocks. Noeddekaer, however, is tempering expectations: "India is less of a standout now on a relative level than some years back and we don't expect, in the near-term, to go back to the very high overweight we had in the past."
Write to Reshma Kapadia at reshma.kapadia@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Hope this us ok to reproduce that article
Dona Ferentes
Pengurus pengatur
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AFR is running a story, exposé, about front-running by brokers in India.
tip of iceberg
tip of iceberg
