Australian Federal Election - 2022

[wayneL]

Tbh, I'm struggling to see how Scotty's "blessed" comment was offensive.

 

[Knobby22]

Tbh, I'm struggling to see how Scotty's "blessed" comment was offensive.

It isn't. But he carefully planned it to occur. The trans thing had done it's dash and this is next, we were talking in the office what his next one will be and we thought religion.

He needs this sort of stuff to take the oxygen away from real issues and to avoid discussing policy.

 

[SirRumpole]

Tbh, I'm struggling to see how Scotty's "blessed" comment was offensive.

It's offensive to people like Dylan Alcott etc and other people who have succeeded despite having a disability.

Of course we know Morrison didn't mean any offense, but the way it goes these days is that some people are ultra sensitive and offense is easily taken.

 

[PZ99]

These Coalition members have been cracking me up lately with their demands from independents as to who they'll support in a hung parliament.

Dave Sharma : "In the event of a hung parliament, which party will you support to form government?
“If you’re not being upfront with the electorate now and telling them which party you’re going to support, I think you’re being dishonest with them.
“You’ve got to level with them, you’ve got to say, if I’m elected this is who I’ll support.”

Yeah well guess what Dave ? Maybe you should state what your party will be offering instead of demanding a vote... it's a bit like a shop owner demanding you buy a product before explaining what it does

 

[wayneL]

It's offensive to people like Dylan Alcott etc and other people who have succeeded despite having a disability.

Of course we know Morrison didn't mean any offense, but the way it goes these days is that some people are ultra sensitive and offense is easily taken.

Yes.

I'm in no way defending SM, but as you say if we're going to manufacture outrage at every turn of phrase we'll all end up hating each other for no reason.

I mean, you said "succeeded despite having a disability". So even that could be transmogrified into an offensive comment if someone really wanted to.

Sheesh!

 

[PZ99]

Took a while but the ABC have put up their swing calculator again.

It predicts (based on uniform swings if that's likely) that a swing to Labor of 3% or less is a hung parliament as is a swing to the Coalition of 0.5% or less.

Move the slider to your desired outcome

Antony Green's election calculator - Federal election 2022

The Federal election calculator is loaded with the pre-election margins for all seats. Enter a national swing, select state by state swings, or choose one of the stored opinion polls, to see the result that could be produced by the chosen swing.

www.abc.net.au

 

[IFocus]

Isn't this just a confirmation of conservative mantra?

Always take the cheapest short term option, regardless of the consequences?

The Coalition slashed the overseas aid budget now scrambling to restore but the damage is done.

This includes failure to engage at all levels provinces to prime ministers which I think they still haven't done.

 

[SirRumpole]

Took a while but the ABC have put up their swing calculator again.

It predicts (based on uniform swings if that's likely) that a swing to Labor of 3% or less is a hung parliament as is a swing to the Coalition of 0.5% or less.

Move the slider to your desired outcome

Antony Green's election calculator - Federal election 2022

The Federal election calculator is loaded with the pre-election margins for all seats. Enter a national swing, select state by state swings, or choose one of the stored opinion polls, to see the result that could be produced by the chosen swing.

www.abc.net.au

The problem with that poll is that it's more likely to be done by users of the ABC who would be more likely Centre/Left , so is this a biased result ?

 

[PZ99]

The problem with that poll is that it's more likely to be done by users of the ABC who would be more likely Centre/Left , so is this a biased result ?

No it's not a poll, it's a user controlled calulator. The likely result depends on where you place the slider.
Other users have no effect on the result.

My own gut feeling is a swing to Labor of around 1.5% on the day. So the calculator gives the Coalition 73 and Labor 72 seats.

If anything it shows just how hard it's going to be for Labor to win outright because swings of over 3% are quite rare.

 

[sptrawler]

No it's not a poll, it's a user controlled calulator. The likely result depends on where you place the slider.
Other users have no effect on the result.

My own gut feeling is a swing to Labor of around 1.5% on the day. So the calculator gives the Coalition 73 and Labor 72 seats.

If anything it shows just how hard it's going to be for Labor to win outright because swings of over 3% are quite rare.

Good points.
Albo getting covid is probably not a big disaster, it limits the media appearance and when he does zoom interviews he can have notes.
So not all bad for Albo IMO.

 

[Knobby22]

Good points.
Albo getting covid is probably not a big disaster, it limits the media appearance and when he does zoom interviews he can have notes.
So not all bad for Albo IMO.

Depends how sick he gets.

 

[sptrawler]

Depends how sick he gets.

From the info on here and those in my immediate family who have had it, as long as he has been vaxxed he should be fine he appears to be pretty healthy.

 

[PZ99]

He can catch up on his homework. I noticed he shook hands with the PM recently as well

 

[Ferret]

From the info on here and those in my immediate family who have had it, as long as he has been vaxxed he should be fine he appears to be pretty healthy.

I got it a few weeks ago and, despite being vaxed and healthy, it really knocked me around a bit. I wouldn't have wanted to be doing interviews!

Wife had it at the same time and she was far less effected. It seems to effect people very differently, so who knows how Albo will be for the next few days.

 

[basilio]

I know the headlines are saying its the biggest security blunder ever but its actually bigger.

China will own the Pacific in no time as a result, there has been a some pointed commentary about how badly Australia has dealt with the pacific islands and its continues to this day. A minister or understudy fly's out for a day or two and then that's it.


What it means for Australia at the very least is that it will tie up large amounts of military / intelligence assets that we don't have its a major cluster.

The capacity of the Chinese to build influence in the Pacific echoes many previous diplomatic disasters by the US and the West.
Back in the 50's the US treated Africian and Asian countries with very scant regard in diplomatic terms. They took them for granted. They privately and often publicly treated officials with disrespect.

In that context the diplomats from USSR and China were far more respectful and constructive in their relationships. The outcome for the foreign policy in the US was dire.

This failure of diplomacy came to a head in 1958 with the publication of The Ugly American. Check it out.

The Ugly American​

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Ugly American is a 1958 political novel by Eugene Burdick and William Lederer that depicts the failures of the U.S. diplomatic corps in Southeast Asia.
The book caused a sensation in diplomatic circles and had major political implications. The Peace Corps was established during the Kennedy administration partly as a result of the book. The bestseller has remained continuously in print and is one of the most influential American political novels.[1] It has been called an "iconic Cold War text."[2]

​

Background​

Authors​

William Lederer was an American author and captain in the U.S. Navy who served as special assistant to the commander in chief of U.S. forces in the Pacific and Asian theater.

Eugene Burdick was an American political scientist, novelist, and non-fiction writer, and served in the Navy during World War II. The two met in the build-up to the Vietnam War.[3]

The authors were disillusioned with the style and substance of U.S. diplomatic efforts in Southeast Asia. They sought to demonstrate through their writings their belief that American officials and civilians could make a substantial difference in Southeast Asian politics if they were willing to learn local languages, follow local customs and employ regional military tactics.

Historical and political​

The book was very much a product of its times and historical context.

In 1958 the Cold War was in full force, pitting the two geopolitical giants, the United States and the Soviet Union, against each other for military and geopolitical influence and dominance. NATO and the Warsaw Pact divided Europe into two competing visions of the world: the Western world viewed countries in the Eastern Bloc as behind an Iron Curtain, as evidenced by the failed Hungarian Revolution. The Eastern Bloc countered by portraying itself as the liberator of countries that were still in thrall to colonialist machinations, as evidenced by banana republics. The nuclear arms race was underway with the U.S. well ahead initially, but by 1955, the Soviets had exploded a hydrogen bomb and were beginning to catch up, sparking fears of nuclear armageddon.

The Soviet launching of Sputnik into orbit in 1957 gave the Soviets a huge technological and propaganda victory and sparked a crisis of confidence in the United States and worries about falling behind technologically and militarily. In Asia, the French had left Indochina in 1954 after their defeat at the Battle of Dien Bien Phu and the U.S. became involved in Vietnam to fill the perceived power vacuum. The U.S. and the Soviets struggled for preeminence in the Third World through proxies in Latin America, Africa, and Asia.

In the Middle East, the U.S. feared the spread of Communism starting in Egypt and attempted to secure the region's most populous and politically powerful country for the West by guarantees of funding for construction of the Aswan Dam, but it was eventually the Soviets who prevailed. Soviet diplomatic and political successes in the Third World left the West worried about losing one country after another to Communism[4] according to the domino theory invoked by President Dwight D. Eisenhower.[citation needed]

It was in this atmosphere of fear, mistrust, and uncertainty in the United States about Soviet military and technological might and Communist political success in unaligned nations of the Third World that the novel was published in 1958, with an immediate impact.

Content​

The book depicts the failures of the U.S. diplomatic corps, whose insensitivity to local language, culture, and customs and refusal to integrate were in marked contrast to the polished abilities of Eastern Bloc (primarily Soviet) diplomacy and led to Communist diplomatic success overseas.[3]

The Ugly American - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[SirRumpole]

The book depicts the failures of the U.S. diplomatic corps, whose insensitivity to local language, culture, and customs and refusal to integrate were in marked contrast to the polished abilities of Eastern Bloc (primarily Soviet) diplomacy and led to Communist diplomatic success overseas.[3]

The US has always regarded itself as the most important country on earth.

In military terms it is, but there are other social democracies that have better records in dealing with their own citizens, let alone those of other countries.

Lately (and maybe earlier) we have been spruiking ourselves as some democratic model to be copied and yes we haven't done too badly but other cultures are different and have other ways of doing things , a fact which we are often slow to recognise.

 

[basilio]

7 Years to apologise for a smart xrse comment on a live mike.

Dutton apologises for 2015 joke about rising seas in light of Solomon Islands China deal — as it happened

The federal election campaign continues, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison wishing Anthony Albanese well following his COVID-19 test, and Peter Dutton apologising for years-old comments.

www.abc.net.au

 

[basilio]

Josh Fridenberg has kicked a most spectacular own goal in Kooyong.

Somehow The CEO of the charity Guide Dogs Australia has been encouraged to write a glowing support letter for Josh. Think about for a second. A CEO of a charity opening supporting a political party before an election.

Guide Dogs Victoria launches internal investigation after CEO Karen Hayes publicly endorses Treasurer Josh Frydenberg​

Guide Dogs Victoria has launched an internal investigation following its chief executive officer publicly endorsing federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg's bid for re-election.

Key points:​

• The Guide Dogs Victoria board said it had no prior knowledge of Ms Hayes's endorsement
• The charity has requested the material be "immediately removed from circulation"
• Mr Frydenberg is defending Ms Hayes's endorsement of him

The move may be in breach of regulations for charities set out by a national body.

Karen Hayes appeared in a social media video posted on Mr Frydenberg's Facebook page yesterday, and she featured in letterbox flyers dropped off in the seat of Kooyong.

In a flyer, Ms Hayes is pictured holding a guide dog puppy alongside the words "Why I am supporting Josh Frydenberg".

The letter is signed "Karen, Chief Executive Officer, Guide Dogs Victoria".

In the social media video, Ms Hayes credits the Treasurer with helping the charity complete a $30 million renovation of its Kew headquarters.

"He gives us guidance and connects us with people in the community, or within government, that we need to talk to to make change," Ms Hayes said.

A message at the end of the video confirmed it was "authorised by Josh Frydenberg".

The organisation has released a statement saying its board had "no prior knowledge of the distribution of this material and does not endorse it".

Guide Dogs Victoria launches investigation after CEO publicly endorses Josh Frydenberg

The organisation's chief executive officer Karen Hayes has publicly endorsed the Treasurer in her seat of Kooyong through a social media video and in letterbox flyers.

www.abc.net.au

Josh Frydenberg says he has pulled election ads after Guide Dogs Victoria complaint

Charity says it is committed to remaining apolitical and has launched an investigation

www.theguardian.com

Charity commission says political endorsements not allowed​

The Australian Charities and Not-For-Profits Commission (ACNC) website says charitable organisations will be disqualified for "promoting or opposing a political party or candidate for political office".

And Josh does it gain.WTF?

He has posters all around Kooyong showing him with a bunch of scouts. Again using a not for profit community group as a prop for political popularity. How many strikes before you are out ?

Just not on. Who is advising Josh on the use of such photos ? And why doesn't he know this is just so obviously wrong ?

Josh Frydenberg forced to alter federal election campaign posters after scout complaint​

ABC Investigations
/
By Pat McGrath and Kevin Nguyen
Posted 12h ago12 hours ago, updated 6h ago6 hours ago

Josh Frydenberg pictured with Scouts Victoria members on his campaign corflutes.(Supplied)
Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article


Josh Frydenberg's campaign team has agreed to cover over a photograph of a group of scouts featured on election posters after receiving a complaint from one of the subjects in the photo.

Key points:​

• Mr Frydenberg's office confirmed to the ABC it would remove the image
• A scout in the image who made the complaint said they did not consent to it being used
• Scouts Victoria's guidelines explicitly forbid any of its materials being used in political advocacy

Taken five years ago, the photograph shows Mr Frydenberg saluting alongside nine Scouts Victoria members.
It has been printed on campaign corflutes located around the seat of Kooyong in Melbourne's inner-east.

One of the scouts in the photograph told the ABC they did not consent to its use and complained to Mr Frydenberg's office about the poster earlier this week.

They said they were told by his office the image would be "covered with a sticker" over the next few days.

Scout complaint forces a makeover for Josh Frydenberg's Kooyong campaign corflutes

Josh Frydenberg's campaign team is covering over a photograph of a group of scouts featured on election posters after receiving a complaint from one of the subjects in the photo.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Eager]

Tbh, I'm struggling to see how Scotty's "blessed" comment was offensive.

Late reply. This issue is largely done and dusted due to the 24hr news cycle, but I still feel the need to provide an analogy with something you hold dear (the almighty dollar) to hopefully make you feel at least a little bit circumspect.

Consider, if you were destitute, hungry and sleepng rough, and Morrison proclaimed that he was blessed to be wealthy...how would you react?

 

[wayneL]

Late reply. This issue is largely done and dusted due to the 24hr news cycle, but I still feel the need to provide an analogy with something you hold dear (the almighty dollar) to hopefully make you feel at least a little bit circumspect.

Consider, if you were destitute, hungry and sleepng rough, and Morrison proclaimed that he was blessed to be wealthy...how would you react?

No different at all, that would be true.