Electric cars?

[rederob]

Average age 10 years = average lifespan roughly double that so 20 years.

How many owners it has during that time is largely irrelevant to the fact that a car is on the roads for ~20 years from sale to scrap on average. It's irrelevant who owns it so long as it's still being used as a car by someone.

That figure hasn't really changed in a long time now. Hence it took 20 years to get rid of leaded and subsequently lead replacement petrol use down to a point where selling it was no longer viable and that's despite massive improvement in cars during that time. Fuel injection, disc brakes all round, power steering, air-conditioning, air bags and other more passive safety features all went from something that only rich people had to something that even the cheapest cars came with as standard during that time but it didn't lead to the old ones being scrapped any faster.

This is a long repeat of your previous irrelevances.
If you can't buy an ICE vehicle beyond 2030 then they turn into dinosaurs.
Also, by 2030 we will have a burgeoning NEV used car market. And 10 years later again it will be larger still so it's difficult to conceive any viable market for used ICE. An implication of this is that ICE vehicles will have a negligible resale value.

 

[Value Collector]

Average age 10 years = average lifespan roughly double that so 20 years.

How many owners it has during that time is largely irrelevant to the fact that a car is on the roads for ~20 years from sale to scrap on average. It's irrelevant who owns it so long as it's still being used as a car by someone.

That figure hasn't really changed in a long time now. Hence it took 20 years to get rid of leaded and subsequently lead replacement petrol use down to a point where selling it was no longer viable and that's despite massive improvement in cars during that time. Fuel injection, disc brakes all round, power steering, air-conditioning, air bags and other more passive safety features all went from something that only rich people had to something that even the cheapest cars came with as standard during that time but it didn't lead to the old ones being scrapped any faster.

An interesting statistic to know would be the average age of cars, weighted by km’s driven per year.

For example, a retired couple with their 1997 Corolla that is driven 20 km a week, shouldn’t be weighted the same as a 3 year old car on a daily commute of 100+ km per day.

By figuring out a way to weight the average age to kms driven, we could figure out how old the car fleet is that’s actually doing the heavy lifting eg, what is the age of the work horses.

That way we would have a clearer Idea about how long it would take for EV’s to have an impact.

 

[Value Collector]

The big difference with a phone is that a smartphone offers major user advantages over any other phone.

Plus it’s a relatively minor purchase. A cheap one can be bought at the Post Office or in a supermarket and even going upmarket is still only a fortnight’s pay for an average worker.

Versus an EV which does nothing an ICE doesn’t do and which is a very major purchase for most, commonly only possible with finance over several years.

Well, that’s the case unless EV’s gain something major over ICE which is not the case with current models. You still have to register it and attach number plates, speed limits still apply as do parking time limits and fees, you still need a license to drive and so on.

EV’s would need to be drastically cheaper to purchase than their ICE counterparts or offer some major advantage to see the entire ICE fleet scrapped more quickly than it would ordinarily turn over.

An EV is ultimately just a car with a different means of making it move but it still does the same thing, it's still a car.

In the commercial fleet, it’s possible lower running costs eg fuel and maintenance might spark an early scrapping of vehicles.

I can see that a truck might last 30 years when New diesel vehicles are much better than old ones, But when New vehicles running costs start having huge differences, it might change things.

 

[Smurf1976]

This is a long repeat of your previous irrelevances.
If you can't buy an ICE vehicle beyond 2030 then they turn into dinosaurs.

They do but an ICE sold in, say, 2025 isn't going to be scrapped in 2030 just because it's no longer in production.

It would take a truly major fall in the price of new vehicles to make that a realistic scenario where cars are effectively disposable rather than being, for most consumers, the second most expensive item they'll ever purchase (and the actual most expensive one that isn't normally an investment).

 

[divs4ever]

well when i was young the key selling point to the younger buyer was 'will it get me laid ' , in recent years i have seen a trend of 'can the family live in this , if our circumstances turn bad ' ( i kid you not )

let's see what the real motivation for EVs will be by the time they are mass produced

( having several Muso friends fitting in ALL the bang's gear is a big selling point for them )

 

[Value Collector]

They do but an ICE sold in, say, 2025 isn't going to be scrapped in 2030 just because it's no longer in production.

It would take a truly major fall in the price of new vehicles to make that a realistic scenario where cars are effectively disposable rather than being, for most consumers, the second most expensive item they'll ever purchase (and the actual most expensive one that isn't normally an investment).

A “work horse”/Taxi that does 150,000 km per year purchased in 2025, could be put retired/sold to a family on welfare in 2030, and end up only doing 5,000 km a year for the remainder of its life, so it ends up taking the last 10 years of its life to drive the distance it did in the first 3 months.

Thats why I think it would be interesting to see the vehicle stats weighted to kms driven, because I suspect the work horse fleet is much younger than average.

 

[Value Collector]

well when i was young the key selling point to the younger buyer was 'will it get me laid ' , in recent years i have seen a trend of 'can the family live in this , if our circumstances turn bad ' ( i kid you not )

let's see what the real motivation for EVs will be by the time they are mass produced

( having several Muso friends fitting in ALL the bang's gear is a big selling point for them )

Ev’s are great to spend time in, running the aircon etc with out having to run a big petrol burning engine is a massive plus.

so if I have to live in a car, I would definitely want it to be an ev.

 

[divs4ever]

and what about the children , not everyone 'between homes ' is single

 

[Value Collector]

and what about the children , not everyone 'between homes ' is single

I think the children prefer having the aircon on too.

 

[Value Collector]

I have an investment in chevron (indirectly via Berkshire), They are one of the global oil majors.

I just watched one of their corporate videos where they are boasting about how their oil drills and wells in Colorado now produce 90% less pollution and are cheaper to run.

The secret to this improved efficiency and lower pollution was converting their drills and pumps to electricity.

There is a bit of Irony there, that even the Oil wells are moving away from using oil as a fuel source.

 

[JohnDe]

For those with range anxiety -

Just got back from a weekend trip. This trip was part pleasure and part business, we've purchased a block at a coastal location and had an appointment to see a building consultant in a nearby town, about 2.5 hour drive one way and we decided to stay overnight where the block of land is as my wife booked dinner at a great brewery/gin joint

We booked late, so there wasn't any choice in where we stayed, meaning we couldn't charge the Tesla. I was contemplating taking one of our ICE cars becaue there is no public charging points and our accomodation gave us no charging options, but in the end I thought 'what the hell, lets see what happens' and took the Tesla M3 LR.

Charged at 100%, completed my commitments and left in the afternoon. Stopped at the consultant, and then off to our accomodation in the next town over. Forgot to turn of Sentry Mode (uses power every time it is activated), drove around the town stopping at various places numerous times for research, fun and lunch, then headed home with a detour Jon the way for some more research, and then home.

We safely completed the weekend trip without having to re-charge.

 

[mullokintyre]

Labour must be reading this thread in ASF.
From The Australian

Labor has vowed to waive the import tariffs and luxury car taxes for electric vehicles, while also exempting them from fringe benefits tax when bought by businesses.A leading energy expert has cast doubt on the ability of Labor to reach its electric car projections without significantly stronger policy levers such as fuel emissions standards or subsidies.Grattan Institute director Tony Wood urged Labor to release the assumptions of the modelling conducted by RepuTex that shows its policies would see electric vehicles making up 89 per cent of new car sales by 2030. The predicted 600,000 sales a year by 2030 is more than 200 per cent above Scott Morrison’s projections.
assumption from Labor’s modelling is well above former leader Bill Shorten’s target for electric cars to make up 50 per cent of new car sales by 2030, which the Prime Minister declared would “end the weekend”.

the basis of everything I have seen, which is not the RepuTex modelling, I can’t see how you get that level of uptake in that period of time,” Mr Wood told The Australian.


The Morrison government predicts its policies would see electric vehicles account for 29 per cent of new car sales by 2030, up from less than 1 per cent last year.

While Mr Shorten pledged to introduce vehicle emissions standards to help electric cars be more cost-competitive, Anthony Albanese has not adopted the policy.

Instead, Labor has vowed to waive the import tariffs and luxury car taxes for electric vehicles, while also exempting them from fringe benefits tax when bought by businesses.

Labor is also planning to implement a 75 per cent electric car target by 2025 for federal government vehicles.


Mr Wood said Labor’s tax exemptions for electric vehicles would offer “a relatively modest discount” and he wanted to see how the 89 per cent assumption could be justified.

“I would like to see the basis on which they can see it is believable,” Mr Wood said.

“It seems like a very bold assumption. We would have assumed to get anything like an uptake like that you are going to either need an emissions standard that enforces it or a pretty generous subsidy.

“I would want to know on what basis do they justify the connection between the assumption and the result.”

Labor is planning to release a national electric vehicle strategy while in government, which could put more contentious policy levers off until after the election.
Mr Wood joined other energy experts who have questioned Labor’s claim that its policies would not lead to the early closure of coal-fired power stations.

A spokeswoman for opposition energy spokesman Chris Bowen said Labor’s plan had the “most comprehensive modelling an opposition party has done for any policy”.

“RepuTex are the country’s pre-eminent energy economists, counting Australia’s biggest corporations as well as key government agencies as their clients, including the Prime Minister’s own department,” the spokeswoman said.

“They were also involved in modelling the government’s current 2030 target.”

It still does not address the problem of what to do for those who are on the bottom third of the socio economic scale .
Besides having little chance of being in a position to buy one. the large cut in government revenue from the loss of tarriffs, import duty, luxury car tax as well as the gst and and fossil fuel excise taxes forgone will most likely affect them as well.
as usual, it will be the poor subsiding the aspirations of the wealthy.
Now if one of the government parties did a deal with a chinese EV manufacturer and gave an EV to anyone who falls into that bottom third, then they might get somewhere.
Mick

 

[Value Collector]

For those with range anxiety -

Just got back from a weekend trip. This trip was part pleasure and part business, we've purchased a block at a coastal location and had an appointment to see a building consultant in a nearby town, about 2.5 hour drive one way and we decided to stay overnight where the block of land is as my wife booked dinner at a great brewery/gin joint

We booked late, so there wasn't any choice in where we stayed, meaning we couldn't charge the Tesla. I was contemplating taking one of our ICE cars becaue there is no public charging points and our accomodation gave us no charging options, but in the end I thought 'what the hell, lets see what happens' and took the Tesla M3 LR.

Charged at 100%, completed my commitments and left in the afternoon. Stopped at the consultant, and then off to our accomodation in the next town over. Forgot to turn of Sentry Mode (uses power every time it is activated), drove around the town stopping at various places numerous times for research, fun and lunch, then headed home with a detour Jon the way for some more research, and then home.

We safely completed the weekend trip without having to re-charge.

View attachment 134153View attachment 134154

Plenty of juice left.

 

[Value Collector]

Labour must be reading this thread in ASF.
From The Australian


It still does not address the problem of what to do for those who are on the bottom third of the socio economic scale .
Besides having little chance of being in a position to buy one. the large cut in government revenue from the loss of tarriffs, import duty, luxury car tax as well as the gst and and fossil fuel excise taxes forgone will most likely affect them as well.
as usual, it will be the poor subsiding the aspirations of the wealthy.
Now if one of the government parties did a deal with a chinese EV manufacturer and gave an EV to anyone who falls into that bottom third, then they might get somewhere.
Mick

The more Ev’s that the middle class buy now, the more second hand evs there will be on the market later, and they will trickle down to the lower income working class.

 

[basilio]

In the commercial fleet, it’s possible lower running costs eg fuel and maintenance might spark an early scrapping of vehicles.

I can see that a truck might last 30 years when New diesel vehicles are much better than old ones, But when New vehicles running costs start having huge differences, it might change things.

This issue of running costs for high mileage ICE trucks vs electric trucks is already being considered for early action.
I posted a story earlier this year about an engineer who is developng a process of converting ICE trucks to electric for Sydney- Brisbane runs. Will be interesting to see if it gets off the ground. The cost savings for high mileage trucks are compelling

Swap and go: electric trucks to run between Sydney and Brisbane using exchangeable batteries

Batteries can be swapped in three minutes, removing the need for trucks to plug in and charge

www.theguardian.com

Sydney to Brisbane for $525 in electric converted prime mover

Janus Electric, based on the NSW Central Coast, is about to road test the world's first patented exchangeable battery for heavy vehicles.

bigrigs.com.au

 

[mullokintyre]

The more Ev’s that the middle class buy now, the more second hand evs there will be on the market later, and they will trickle down to the lower income working class.

Quite true, but it does not change the premise that the upper echelons of society will get a subsidised EV, whereas the rest will get the scraps.
Mick

 

[Value Collector]

Quite true, but it does not change the premise that the upper echelons of society will get a subsidised EV, whereas the rest will get the scraps.
Mick

Reducing the costs of Evs mean that more middle class and working class can afford them, I am a member on Face Book model 3 group, and Therese heaps of average working class people on there who are stretching the limits of their affordability to try and get an Ev, this would lower the burden on them, and also help the rest of society vs increasing Australia’s energy security, and lowering air pollution.

But is the sticking point for you that the “rich folk” might also save some dollars?

 

[basilio]

The cost of EVs is falling rapidly. Right now in fact the biggest and cheapest selling EV in the world is a $5000 urban runabout in China. So let's not get too excited about protestations of the starving poor eking out an existence from the scraps of middle class table.

Tesla has made it clear that within 12-18 months they will release an electric car in the $25k pricepoint of average consumers. Of course there is no way that even middling poor people could afford that price - but this will work it's way through the new and used car market.

The overwhelming advantage for all people but in particular poorer communities is the drop in running costs of these new cars. Fuel will be a fraction of current costs. Maintenance will also be much lower. Since these are fixed costs they will be of much greater value to people who have less disposable income.

Chinese £3,200 budget electric car takes on Tesla

The mini electric vehicle being made by China's biggest carmaker is now outselling Tesla two to one.

www.bbc.com

A cheap Tesla could be with us sooner than expected, according to tipster

Could this be the low-cost Tesla Model 2?

www.techradar.com

 

[mullokintyre]

Reducing the costs of Evs mean that more middle class and working class can afford them, I am a member on Face Book model 3 group, and Therese heaps of average working class people on there who are stretching the limits of their affordability to try and get an Ev, this would lower the burden on them, and also help the rest of society vs increasing Australia’s energy security, and lowering air pollution.

But is the sticking point for you that the “rich folk” might also save some dollars?

No, on the contrary, I would probably be classed as one of the rich folk, and thus the proposals would be most advantageous to me.
But I am in a position to look after myself, pretty much regardless of what the market or the governments may do.
My concern is for the less fortunate.
I can make financial and lifestyle decisions with relative ease, but that is not the lot of many.
They are passionate and prepared to buy at almost any cost.
Your facebook group may have some battlers, but it is not representative of the OZ population, any more than ASF is, or readers of ABC news are.
So many policy decisions are made by people who will benefit from them, which unfortunately means there are many for whom there is little benefit at best, or a severe penalty at worst.
I am sorry if ithe sticking point for you is that those less fortunate than ourselves get the raw end of the deal.
mick

 

[divs4ever]

there are PLENTY of *** starving poor eking out an existence from the scraps of middle class table. ***

and i think those $5000 urban runabouts are the perfect foothold for EVs , good for the city worker and parts of government fleets

refine and improve their way up the socio-economic ladder ( your billionaire cares if the dash is real Brazilian Walnut , most punters are just happy the dash doesn't fall off when being driven ) besides 10,000 runabouts will do more to reduce pollution than 1,000 Teslas

i prefer usability over ego-boosting ( and always have ) i DO value quality , where it improves functionality and durability