Where are the GOLD BUGS?

[rederob]

Last 14 years of gold is charted below:


As is clearly seen, the initial bull market not only had a steeper trajectory for both its longer term and then post-GFC runs north than the present bull market, but also traded within narrower boundaries. It suggests to me a longer and more sustainable trend, and it starts from a significantly higher base.
Ever the optimist!

 

[rederob]

The trend envelope remains intact:


Downside weakness has prevailed, but no wholesale collapse in price.
Crystal balls need polishing.

 

[rederob]

Have dusted off the crystal and a clearer picture is emerging:

 

[rederob]

We can run but we cannot hide .
Support got trashed on Friday as bond sales knocked down all commodities.
Those sellers now need somewhere to reinvest.
What looks safe?
Gold has a silver lining!
Just need to find out where it is... maybe, just maybe, coming to a forum near you... soon.

 

[rederob]

Gold is still searching for "support".
Maybe it was delivered on Good Friday!
Anyway, the trends remain mixed for now:

 

[rederob]

This index has a lot of headroom:

 

[rederob]

There is no doubt that POG in $USD has been trashed recently, so should we be alarmed?
Maybe the $AUD chart gives us a reason not to be:

Although POG cannot defy gravity, it appears the $USD can.
What is remarkable here is that the $USD is strengthening against its own looming debt ceiling crisis.


Although markets have irrational tendencies, they also pivot around balance points. So it's improbable that the dollar can remain stronger for longer unless other global currencies weaken concurrently.

 

[peter2]

This gold bug is dead. I'm not buying any gold/ silver stocks for a long time. I'm not saying never.

 

[Sean K]

View attachment 130850 This gold bug is dead. I'm not buying any gold/ silver stocks for a long time. I'm not saying never.

Might see this bug on it's feet once the handle finishes and $1900 is broken. Target more like $2700 perhaps.

 

[KevinBB]

This chart tells a different story. December 21 futures, 1 year, weekly bars, USD.

KH

 

[Sean K]

This chart tells a different story. December 21 futures, 1 year, weekly bars, USD.

KH

View attachment 130857

Isn't that the handle part, Kev?

 

[KevinBB]

Sorry, I'm not sure what "cup and handle" is, I'll have to look it up.

I'm not sure what the price of gold will do, however I just see a succession of down bars, heading towards that pretty solid low that has been tested three times already. It will be interesting to see what happens if that low is tested again in the next couple of weeks. Bounce or break. Odds are probably on the bounce, but a break wouldn't surprise me.

Edit: The two charts show that many interpretations can come from using TA on the same instrument in different timeframes.

KH

 

[Sean K]

Sorry, I'm not sure what "cup and handle" is, I'll have to look it up.

I'm not sure what the price of gold will do, however I just see a succession of down bars, heading towards that pretty solid low that has been tested three times already. It will be interesting to see what happens if that low is tested again in the next couple of weeks. Bounce or break. Odds are probably on the bounce, but a break wouldn't surprise me.

Edit: The two charts show that many interpretations can come from using TA on the same instrument in different timeframes.

KH

Yes, the last year looks crap.

Cup and handle is as the name suggests. I half moon round shaped cup with two lips and the handle is a consolidation bit on the right side forming a handle looking thing. The price target is the depth of the cup from breakout to the upside.

Cup and Handle Pattern: How to Trade and Target with an Example

A cup and handle is a bullish technical price pattern that appears in the shape of a handled cup on a price chart. Learn how it works with an example, how to identify a target.

www.investopedia.com

 

[KevinBB]

@kennas Thanks for the description.

So, the price target was 1740 or so, with a bit of sideways movement between 1740 and 1940 or so? The $99 question is where does it go from there?

I'm a bit of a longer term trend follower with L plates, so for me the odds favour a continuation of the down bars. But ... I've been wrong many times before.

KH

 

[Tyre Kicker]

US dollar will run out of puff at some stage - surely can't keep printing trillions upon trillion upon trillions and have it any other way.

Probably a good opportunity to accumulate more solid gold stocks over the coming months.

I sure will be.

 

[divs4ever]

@kennas Thanks for the description.

So, the price target was 1740 or so, with a bit of sideways movement between 1740 and 1940 or so? The $99 question is where does it go from there?

I'm a bit of a longer term trend follower with L plates, so for me the odds favour a continuation of the down bars. But ... I've been wrong many times before.

KH

if trading futures contracts the 'gold price' is important

if buying gold stocks , the local currency AND the 'gold price ' is important ( your gold stock MIGHT be making extra profits despite the gold price sliding because the currency is weakening as well ) also important for gold stocks are hedging contracts , if any ( guaranteed sale at an agreed price ) can be a mixed outcome but a nice safety net for a producer with outstanding debt

now if buying the physical ( and keeping it at home ) the PREMIUM + the spot gold price is important , assuming your dealer has any to sell

good luck

where is it going ... gold is an inert , lifeless metal , it is the manipulated , and counterfeited currencies that move , the currencies might devalue , reset , become worthless , but gold is just gold and as long as someone will buy it , someone will dig more up

 

[divs4ever]

US dollar will run out of puff at some stage - surely can't keep printing trillions upon trillion upon trillions and have it any other way.

Probably a good opportunity to accumulate more solid gold stocks over the coming months.

I sure will be.

yes have been patiently nibbling at several gold producers , myself ( but NOT going into debt to buy them )

 

[Sean K]

@kennas Thanks for the description.

So, the price target was 1740 or so, with a bit of sideways movement between 1740 and 1940 or so? The $99 question is where does it go from there?

I'm a bit of a longer term trend follower with L plates, so for me the odds favour a continuation of the down bars. But ... I've been wrong many times before.

KH

In the C&H scenario POG could retrace as much as 50% from the lip of the cup before heading north again. The upward price target on resuming the move up is about $2700. That's an ideal C&H world generalisation, nothing works out for sure, just a probability. It's a very long term C&H too which is rare and even if it does eventuate there'll likely be lots of zigs and zags in there on the way back up. A lot of peeps think TA is black magic too so take it all with a grain of salt.

 

[Craton]

Au as part of a diversified asset class portfolio, I have a very small % of that folio in both Au stocks and physical (mainly coins) in the mix.

 

[finicky]

After @kennas:



David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·Replying to
@okmikeavon

"Couldn't agree more. The gold picture is very bullish yet investor sentiment is about as bearish as it can get. Great set-up. Should see gold at $2500 in coming months. Likely coincides with a weak dollar & accelerating inflation."

Depends who you listen to. Northstar on twitter says there's a chance gold's already heading into a cycle low due in 2024 but admits the possibility of a rally first. Jordan Roy-Byrne recently said he thinks a breakout is a year or two out. Course, they are talking in USD - I've been caught out before thinking in USD and delaying my entry into AUD gold companies at much cost.

I've been buying SSR and HRZ and watching the chart of NST for a possible add.