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Note to Self...
DO NOT POST ON GOLD THREADS
DO NOT POST ON GOLD THREADS
Where are the GOLD BUGS?
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Patience is gold's virtue @Trav.Note to Self...
DO NOT POST ON GOLD THREADS
This chart uses the same pattern points I posted on 30 November, so everything since has been a relatively good fit:
Just remember that prior to 2020 gold had only closed higher than its present price on 4 days (back in 2011).
Apart from the usual speculation, what factors do you believe will drive down POG?
Counter that thought with the factors that lead to POGs long term rise.
Just to prove that patience is needed, my comments in this linked chart were made on 15 May, and I have just updated it with current trend channels. On the more bullish trend $2500 is in reach during late 2021. Steady as she goes will max out at $2300 next year.
Given that the bull run to 2011's peak was across 5 years and some $1400, I reckon that we have a good 3 more years ahead of us.
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The "linked chart" for post #22 above looks like this:
Apologies for bad link earlier but logged-in users don't get an error message when the ASF link fails.
Apologies for bad link earlier but logged-in users don't get an error message when the ASF link fails.
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The chart below is a further update to my previous posts and shows that we remain on track to head beyond $2000 again:
I place zero confidence on my Elliott Wave count as I have no background other than being a layme practitioner.
Fortunately there are other indicators that provide a better guide, so we know that today POG is in overbought territory and statistically needs to either consolidate or retrace a little before resuming its current uptrend. Next hurdle will be at $1965 before the big jump at $2075.
While 2020 was a fantastic year for gold, I cannot see it as being anything but "typical" for the time being.
In keeping with the outlandish forecasts I was making 15 years ago, I believe we are on our way to $3000. I'm not sure that's high enough to be called a gold bug in the present environment, so I am happy to just be an enthusiast this year.
I place zero confidence on my Elliott Wave count as I have no background other than being a layme practitioner.
Fortunately there are other indicators that provide a better guide, so we know that today POG is in overbought territory and statistically needs to either consolidate or retrace a little before resuming its current uptrend. Next hurdle will be at $1965 before the big jump at $2075.
While 2020 was a fantastic year for gold, I cannot see it as being anything but "typical" for the time being.
In keeping with the outlandish forecasts I was making 15 years ago, I believe we are on our way to $3000. I'm not sure that's high enough to be called a gold bug in the present environment, so I am happy to just be an enthusiast this year.
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In the chart below I went back a few years to see what happens when the TSI gap exceeds 25 points. But the TSI gap seldom gets to 20 points, and when that happens there is always a snap-back (see "Oversold Pivot).
So if trends repeat, then the earlier week high will be soon recovered:
So if trends repeat, then the earlier week high will be soon recovered:
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I am only new to watching the XAUUSD and I have probably got the TA wrong 100% of the time so far.
There is so much written about gold on social media that it can easily influence you in the way that you view a chart.
I am hoping for a turn around but currently only hold 1 gold stock which is more luck than good planning.
Weekly chart below for reference but as stated above I am not sure what it will do from here.
There is so much written about gold on social media that it can easily influence you in the way that you view a chart.
I am hoping for a turn around but currently only hold 1 gold stock which is more luck than good planning.
Weekly chart below for reference but as stated above I am not sure what it will do from here.
Cam019
Loose Pants Trend Follower
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Don't worry @Trav., no one has any real idea where it will go. What I like to use is simple market structure. You can use it on any time frame so I'll just quickly type up what I can see. This is just one of many potential scenarios.
XAU/USD Daily Chart
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was a good day, played out as per: https://www.tradingview.com/x/70lzSNQC/
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The bigger picture:
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Gee only $3,000, rats
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POG ran strong for 2 years after the GFC.
Right now, globally, no economies are at "normal" levels of operation, and to get there is going to require significant borrowing/debt.
Financing debt at national levels is not the issue, but repaying it will require low or no, or even negative, interest rates.
If you cannot effectively guarantee the value of money via fiat currencies then something more tangible, like gold, should increase in demand.
Some have ventured that money is flowing into cryptocurrencies, and may well be right. I am too stupid to see how a pattern of electrons (worth billions) that could disappear through non-nuclear electromagnetic pulses or solar flares, or just from losing the "key," is a good idea, long term.
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A perspective on the Gold Bugs index is below:
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The chart has to break up or down!
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Hard to remain bullish!
Being in for the long haul, I have become used to these pullbacks, so won't be jumping ship for a good while.
What I have found interesting is that the shine did not rub off that badly on the big gold producers, so on resumption on my presumptive gold bull market, these stock should lift nicely.
Being in for the long haul, I have become used to these pullbacks, so won't be jumping ship for a good while.
What I have found interesting is that the shine did not rub off that badly on the big gold producers, so on resumption on my presumptive gold bull market, these stock should lift nicely.
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Oddly enough I have done much better out of the decline then I did from the advance in July/August but hopefully we get another crack at higher prices later in the year.
For now though looks like USD will rally
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Here we go, it's going like a bush wallaby and dropping to $1600
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Big call mate, hopefully just a little dip to to ~$1750 but will be interesting to watch on the sidelines.
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For the @gartley's of the world who actively trade the trend, POG's present fall from grace is not a concern - on the contrary, as he noted.
For me, making fewer than a trade each month, the more probable longer term outcome is what I look for.
In that regard, here's a point from the chart below:
Were gold to follow a similar path to the post-GFC collapse, then POG hits $1380 before tripling its price 2 years later. Right now it's hard to see POG over $4000 in 2023/24 and it's certainly not where I would place it.
But never expect markets to act rationally... after all, this is GOLD!
(For fibbonacci lovers, POG's next dip would be to around $1640 [21% decline])
For me, making fewer than a trade each month, the more probable longer term outcome is what I look for.
In that regard, here's a point from the chart below:
Were gold to follow a similar path to the post-GFC collapse, then POG hits $1380 before tripling its price 2 years later. Right now it's hard to see POG over $4000 in 2023/24 and it's certainly not where I would place it.
But never expect markets to act rationally... after all, this is GOLD!
(For fibbonacci lovers, POG's next dip would be to around $1640 [21% decline])
