CUV - Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals

[Pugt16]

Incredibly difficult stock to trade but boy oh boy the long term holders have done ok from this one currently trading 18.80

Yes we have, but the roller coaster ride isn’t over.

I posted in this thread at the start of this year to try and spread the word hoping someone would bite and maybe invest or at least ask questions. Strange this is that of the dozen people ive told about Clinuvel none of them have bitten. Most of whom would have quadrupled their money by now.

I may yet be proven wrong.

 

[avidiskota0015]

For the current quarter there has been a 66% increase in cash receipts from customers, at $10,388,000, compared to the same quarter last year. The company has declared 2cents of dividend to be paid at October 08, 2018.

 

[peter2]

CUV is another stock that has bounced with the market rally (Jan19 - Feb19). CUV is not on my trading radar because the daily volume and market depth are usually much to thin for me.

What's interesting to me is the increasing volume that has been traded throughout this recent rally. You can see this on the daily chart. I don't know whether this is re-accumulation leading to another rally higher or distribution and falling prices. Price is close to it's yearly high and I'm favouring another BO higher.

 

[Zaxon]

CUV is not on my trading radar because the daily volume and market depth are usually much to thin for me.

Lack of market depth is always a problem. You see an amazing stock, but a bid/ask the size of the Grand Canyon. Still, sometimes the stock is too good to pass up.

 

[Ann]

I picked up on this stock after reading Kid Hustlr thread A New Beginning.
It is a thoroughly enjoyable thread full of thrills and spills over time, with some great input by some of the members here. I can thoroughly recommend it if you haven't caught up with it yet. I enjoy these sort of threads as I am trying to lift myself out of being a long term slow investor into a short term trader without doing my dough, so far so good! Mind you, very early days yet, just over a month since I started.
Now to the point of this post, CUV had a nasty fall recently, it appeared as though all the indicators were in positive territory. Then they put out a communique about how they were going, all seemed pretty positive until you got to the bit about Brexit and how it may negatively impact the business, splat went the price and I can't see it lifting until Brexit is sorted.
However I then went back to my Indicators and had a closer look at the Weekly Twiggs Money Flow Indicator and it was then I saw it, the price was rising but the money flow was ever so gradually falling away. Good lesson I have learned, watch the longer term direction of the money flow on a rising stock.

 

[Zaxon]

Then they put out a communique about how they were going, all seemed pretty positive until you got to the bit about Brexit and how it may negatively impact the business, splat went the price and I can't see it lifting until Brexit is sorted.

It definitely was a severe reaction to what was basically an overall positive report. It will be interesting to see whether your prediction about Brexit holds true, or whether it's a more temporary glitch.

 

[Knobby22]

Looking at this company from a fundamental view, it is getting hard to see the price as cheap.PE ratio is nearly 100 after the fall.

The product which provides melatonin to skin that otherwise develops white patches due to a quite rare condition seems a very limited market.

At this stage I would like a medical opinion before investing. Some questions are:How much growth in earnings is there? Do you have up keep taking the product over your whole life?
Are their any competing products?

 

[Pugt16]

Looking at this company from a fundamental view, it is getting hard to see the price as cheap.PE ratio is nearly 100 after the fall.

The product which provides melatonin to skin that otherwise develops white patches due to a quite rare condition seems a very limited market.

At this stage I would like a medical opinion before investing. Some questions are:How much growth in earnings is there? Do you have up keep taking the product over your whole life?
Are their any competing products?

I'm heavily invested and therefore heavily biased, and a lot of what is said about Clinuvel is based on speculation mostly because it is moving into unknown territory.

How much potential in earnings are there. Potentially a lot. Considering EPP indication alone the earnings are huge when Scenesse is available in Europe and hopefully the US come FDA approval. Nevermind Australia and Japan.

Then we have a similar scenario play out for Vitiligo and XP indications.
Also consider the paediatric dose, and the two other formulations being developed for the last few years with subsidiary Singaporean company Vallaurix.

As far as taking the product over your whole life, with EPP it appears so. 3/4 doses per yr to maintain skin protection. Vitiligo studies haven't seen followup periods sufficient to give an answer. But suggest that the re-pigmentation that does occur is long lasting and regenerative to the melanocytes which lay dormant in the vitligous skin.

It is also a safe drug with a safety profile of many decades, with minor side effects such as nausea and flushing of the face.

For those of us invested in Clinuvel the lack of attention is both flabbergasting and welcomed.

There are competing molecules being developed in the lab. But for all we can tell they are at best 5 years behind, much more likely 10 years +.

 

[kid hustlr]

I'm heavily invested and therefore heavily biased, and a lot of what is said about Clinuvel is based on speculation mostly because it is moving into unknown territory.

How much potential in earnings are there. Potentially a lot. Considering EPP indication alone the earnings are huge when Scenesse is available in Europe and hopefully the US come FDA approval. Nevermind Australia and Japan.

Then we have a similar scenario play out for Vitiligo and XP indications.
Also consider the paediatric dose, and the two other formulations being developed for the last few years with subsidiary Singaporean company Vallaurix.

As far as taking the product over your whole life, with EPP it appears so. 3/4 doses per yr to maintain skin protection. Vitiligo studies haven't seen followup periods sufficient to give an answer. But suggest that the re-pigmentation that does occur is long lasting and regenerative to the melanocytes which lay dormant in the vitligous skin.

It is also a safe drug with a safety profile of many decades, with minor side effects such as nausea and flushing of the face.

For those of us invested in Clinuvel the lack of attention is both flabbergasting and welcomed.

There are competing molecules being developed in the lab. But for all we can tell they are at best 5 years behind, much more likely 10 years +.

Holding size in this thing would take stones but I think you are right.

Stock is whippy, thin, it's a bio-tech play which is inherently risk but it behaves almost harmonically, as good as I've seen. It's also not mentioned anywhere which again is a great sign.

So what am I looking for?

Pull back into low 20's a base period on low volume and then a break on volume higher. If we get that I'll buy that reversal set up and look to add if it sets up again near previous highs.

 

[Zaxon]

I've been very happy with CUVs performance so far. I'm up 70% since I bought it.

 

[kid hustlr]

Looks like history won't be repeating - already traded new highs today.

It's a silly comment to make but this stock just looks like it's going to $100.

do not hold.

 

[Zaxon]

It's a silly comment to make but this stock just looks like it's going to $100.

That's a long way to go

 

[Miner]

People who followed and commented CUV to go to $100, could today's fall be explained other than DJ fall on Friday ? Even after more than 10% fall in price, the PE is more than 100. Is it sustainable ? DNH

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/share-price-research/company/CUV

31.000
03 Jun 2019
DAILY-3.490-10.119% DAILY VOLUME198,077
MARKET CAP
1.69bn
BID30.920 OFFER31.120
# SHARES48.96m DIVIDENDS
Most recent 0" class="ng-binding" style="box-sizing: border-box;">2c
Dividend ex-date 21/09/18
Dividend pay date 08/10/18
Franking 0%
Annual dividend yield

0.06%

 

[Zaxon]

People who followed and commented CUV to go to $100, could today's fall be explained other than DJ fall on Friday ?

I think you need to look no further than what's happening with the broader market, and even more so, with small caps. Most of my shares have fallen together, so CUV falls with the tide. A single stock will nearly always be more volatile that an index, which represents an average of a basket of stocks.

 

[Pugt16]

The drop was due to an announcement that the PDUFA for Scenesse has been extended by three months, from 8th July to the 6th October.

Many see this as both good and bad news. Bad in the fact that patients and investors have been waiting long enough already. Good in the fact that in slightly increases the already strong likelihood of approval and gives more time to assure things are done properly before FDA decides the companies fate.

People who followed and commented CUV to go to $100, could today's fall be explained other than DJ fall on Friday ? Even after more than 10% fall in price, the PE is more than 100. Is it sustainable ? DNH

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/share-price-research/company/CUV

31.000
03 Jun 2019
DAILY-3.490-10.119% DAILY VOLUME198,077
MARKET CAP
1.69bn
BID30.920 OFFER31.120
# SHARES48.96m DIVIDENDS
Most recent 0" class="ng-binding" style="box-sizing: border-box;">2c
Dividend ex-date 21/09/18
Dividend pay date 08/10/18
Franking 0%
Annual dividend yield

0.06%

 

[Pugt16]

FDA gave approval for Scenesse this morning.

 

[jjbinks]

Up 60%!

 

[aus_trader]

wow !!

 

[barney]

wow !!

Speechless !!!!! … etc etc

 

[aus_trader]

Speechless !!!!! … etc etc

Congrats to any holders, nice X'mas present that has arrived early
DNH.