Gold Daytraders

[Joules MM1]

..one more item of business to attend to, what exactly is the make-up of this mornings rip, what's stopping the follow-thru, how do the active Asian hours affect price, what are the measurements, how is price acting in the prior congested (vpoc etc) zone (relative size swings)
+ do any of the measures coincide with same length (in total) construction - the answer so far : yes

#edu

 

[Joules MM1]

selling but oh you just take your sweet time aboot it jimmie aye !

 

[Joules MM1]

let's file this one under "things that are not at odds with the real world"
...

"...also require confirmation"

 

[Joules MM1]

"...also require confirmation"

part ii ....with stops above the ratio

 

[Joules MM1]

good set-up, fell to bits, just worth the scale out.....

all the work being done to get price higher is making print choppy, when price is trending impulsively it's not being managed and that's the ride i'm looking for right now

 

[Joules MM1]

no impulsive bid, another divergence,
#observation $xauusd x $silver

 

[Joules MM1]

the play is developing nicely to the sell side requiring a break down thru 1305's to confirm the divergent view (1308 brk targets 1312, 1305 brk resumes journey to 1222)

#observation

 

[Joules MM1]

1305's have failed to hold both a simple abc retrace and the nearest largest swing ratio, next step price needs to descend 1303's on an impulsive leg to confirm and take away all near-term probabilities of a larger pullback, we can continue use silvers lack of bid and it's 30min non-con's as a surrogate

 

[BlindSquirrel]

the 4 hr chart looks like a wedge forming

 

[Joules MM1]

the 4 hr chart looks like a wedge forming
View attachment 93717

bear flag look

how does it sit inside this one:
Gold Daytraders

 

[Joules MM1]

print is displaying xauusd has probably completed an interruption to the current downswing that is travelling in the proposed weekly chart in the above post

if we view the $DX (dxy/USD) to require another new daily high out its congestion zone and likely on a spurt then that fits the current gold/silver sell extremely well as we should expect some moment of uh-oh get-out trades in PM's (that's how flushes work if my thinking is correct!)

going into fridays retrace the move lacked bid or impulsive construct (constructive impulsive bids create print)
fridays small sideways channel although complete in the way i've drawn it on this chart is very small in time so would not surprise me to see a fake lower low and have price chop back into the current retracement area 89-96, front month contract, it's a very small zone of 6bux ....conversely as we're now in the middle of the daily downswing monday may open with a drop bringing momo

$dx, xauusd/silver, #cot

 

[Joules MM1]

and a #weekly #observation #cot #intent $silver

 

[Joules MM1]

price continues to make way lower lows but lacks momo, tends to support the idea price is being assisted lower and with easter/passover insitu not as many players around
i'm having a guess at with that comment but it 'makes sense' implying we'd expect to see some momentum kick in lower down and then bids come in post this holiday period - guessing !

meantime, going with price as it prints, looking for a close on some sells at 1284's presently

 

[Joules MM1]

the 4 hr chart looks like a wedge forming
View attachment 93717

very well constructed rotation in that tri after a turgid sloppy move south

E travelled 61.8% of C in both metals in the front month contract
the odds of an upside break-out of the tri look good unless todays low breaks and the low of C gets taken out

 

[Joules MM1]

the tri idea has a good measure, meaning, it fits all the standard orthodox reasons to go with the upside view based on those commonly occuring and backtestable measures - just one problem

patterns are subsumed by larger patterns (big players cull little players) and that accounts for the failure rate
i took off my sells this morning based on the measures in an "idealised" abcde tri but when i re-opened the screen there is no (current) follow-thru and price is printing like a continuation down so i'm using 1284.4 front month contract to determine a sell, if the upside is to play out we should see new highs inside the tri print very soon

breaking this mornings proposed 'e' would kill the tri

 

[BlindSquirrel]

All that jargon... I don't...


...should I be buying uppies or downies?
The gold price is currently testing the 1284 support, MACD is still bearish on the 1 and 4 hr (& daily)

 

[BlindSquirrel]

Can I assume (by larger trends subsuming smaller) you're referring to the longer term trend on the weekly?

 

[Joules MM1]

Can I assume (by larger trends subsuming smaller) you're referring to the longer term trend on the weekly?
View attachment 93851

yes mate
that little kick down we currently see in the weekly is killing every attempt to rally...we're headed for that diagonal upline

 

[peter2]

All that jargon describes the price structure that JoulesMM1 sees in the charts. The structure repeats in all time frames that's why one should always look at the bigger picture as Joules mentions. Structure is important because its how we (chartists) frame our trades. We look for high probability setups to trade.

Joules' posts are a little more complex than most because he's trading in both directions. When we're trying to trade in both directions it gets more complex as any structure can be traded in either direction. A failed setup to go long may be a good setup to go short.

I think that Joules does a remarkable job maintaining his sanity as I can follow most of his thoughts.

 

[BlindSquirrel]

You have my thanks, Joules & Peter.

I think my drawing of the support trend on the last one could be more useful if I ignore that second dip, the rest line up well.