Gold Daytraders

[fiftyeight]

plenty of longside bias for xau and little attraction to USD basket ....contrarian picks have been good

What are your thoughts on why? People long gold and have to been stopped out, a break below 1300 could change this.

I would of thought break out traders would still be holding dxy to skew the numbers to net long. Or is 40% long high over the medium term?

 

[Joules MM1]

looking at the above chart you see the ratio has a spot-on rotation but it's rubbish and looks like part of the sell-side construct, no ones home, no bid. bleh n meh, the signal is there so it gets taken but because of the construct i have the size uber small with sized pending sell below....if it looks like 30 mins of coffee then its not worth the wait and better to scratch the open bet

 

[InsvestoBoy]

I got slugged 17 pips of slippage last night on one of my exit orders on EURNZD..

In late 2009 I knew very little about the markets and was long 1 mini lot (i.e. $100,000) of EURNZD on margin with a nearby intraday stop.

The trade moved in my position for a little while, then some news or other came out. The trade quickly moved against me and triggered my stop, but my broker could not exit the trade, there was no liquidity at all. When liquidity finally returned, the cross was...a lot... lower and the spread to exit was something more than 30 pips.



17 pips of slippage is nothing when trading EURNZD

 

[Joules MM1]

sell-side liquidity is running hot ...

gold has already taken out the longs security blanket 1302's front month contract and silver another
14-16c to break the lower tri shape to confirm the gold move, typically breaks either side of a tri lend to 100% time x price thrusts and find momo sells ......

 

[Joules MM1]

using #silver as a the more squeezed the whippier velocity kicks in (either side) larger swing direction is prob less fuzzy thru the silver lens

 

[kid hustlr]

Stop looking at the price of gold in USD, start looking at the price of gold in AUD, which is the currency that ASX gold stocks transact in.

IB,

I wanted to come back to you on this. Look at XAU/AUD since your post and look at the price of the gold miners in that time.

I completely agree long term fundamentals drive price but short term there's definitely an aspect of demand supply /, p/e re-rating / other which provides trading opportunities outside of the fundamentals

at least in my view?

 

[InsvestoBoy]

IB,

I wanted to come back to you on this. Look at XAU/AUD since your post and look at the price of the gold miners in that time.

I completely agree long term fundamentals drive price but short term there's definitely an aspect of demand supply /, p/e re-rating / other which provides trading opportunities outside of the fundamentals

at least in my view?

Hello, I don't disagree that plenty of other factors can drive the price too, especially for the smaller players and depending on where they are in the life of a mining company.

But in the specific question you asked was why is it rallying when the "gold price" action is so poor, was obviously attributable to looking at the wrong "gold price"

 

[Joules MM1]

xau cfd ..using silver as a marker

 

[Joules MM1]

this looks p-weak, price races into what looks like a headfake, both charts show price held at previous swing ratios, typical of trending action (down)

still prefer the upside both instruments ...even so... price speaks loudest, it is what it is

 

[Joules MM1]

this took a cupla goes to get set on silver the lift began very messy, important to keep that in mind, clean lifts, impulsive lifts are the gifts of unknown gods that a winner for a long streak but when it's a messy lift it's ultimately a trap for someone, ususally late-commers with last gasp have-to-have buy-ins (to whatever direction being spruiked)
...small break-out to confirm both major PM's on their way to make next upside target.....whether it's the last rotation up before a resumption of the monthly downtrend we wont know until much closer .....if the sentiment is uber positive for PM's we'll know it's too early for perma bulls.....altho nothing in the manual of easy money sez PM's cannot go sideays for a cupla years and royaly shank everyone ! .....joy!

30m + dailies:

 

[Joules MM1]

april cons

 

[Joules MM1]

downside done for now?

 

[Joules MM1]

downside done for now?
View attachment 92933

non-confirmations require err confirmation and can be useful at all time frames provided the context and relative sizes are consistent

for example:

daily non-con

 

[Joules MM1]

both $silver n $gold made 61.8% of yesterdays swing south, but, not convincing longs, i'm out, scalping shorts in this muck

 

[Joules MM1]

small size STO's on 2 x noncons

 

[Joules MM1]

for example: non-cons and ratio combo: before /current

 

[Joules MM1]

some compression, retail cfd xau's relatively bearish

some accompanying news to come?

 

[Joules MM1]

both silver gold bids keep falling to bits...typical overlapping wedgie things appears at all time frames, not a solid uptick anywhere...not a lot of commitment either side.....looking for swing catalysts*

* USD Federal Funds Rate
* GBP Monetary Policy Summary
* German Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

[BlindSquirrel]

that was a bit of a jump! Thank you Fed!
I was expecting them to resume hiking though because they want that 4% buffer.

 

[BlindSquirrel]

I've just read that the fed plans to keep rates on hold for all of this year.
https://www.watoday.com.au/business...sets-end-to-asset-runoff-20190321-p51622.html

This bodes well for the gold price.