Gold Daytraders

[Joules MM1]

the abdce tri, we're almost breaking downside, at the moment, had/has all the normal structure to be a break-out to the upside but its dominated by a larger shape ....the shapes of course are utterly ethereal in practice while retaining a repetition, so by measuring the lengths of price swings we are given the opportunity to narrow down a focus that provides a level risk assessment on what types of moves should or should not unfold, in this way we can quickly re-balance an outlook, take it from a small bias in one direction to a same-size or larger bias in the opposite direction, it's how we can determin if the wedge is a fail, or what level we can be sure that structure is a fail or a follow-thru, the structure has boundaries on different sized or relatively sized scales
this is how i can determin if a pattern has "failed" if you like, it allows the current phase to be retold in realtime or as close to realtime, allows me to hold several probabilities in my head on the go and set targets in context - a shifting context unveils intent allowing for who maybe active at that time of day or week
so if an abcde triangle, that should break upwards, breaks down we can call that a confirmation of the strength of the larger pattern or trend, we should expect to get some momo too as players who were also expecting higher highs to get out suddenly forced to exit

levels - levels - levels

 

[Joules MM1]

additional to this Silver... support levels?

how it looks in the front month contract - most of these sells should come off tonight on a break down
the question is how well silver holds up, the longer it holds its tight reversal signature the faster the takeoff will be from compression and short sellers forced to cover

 

[Joules MM1]

things that signal


1271.88 127.2% inverted ratio of the larger swing needs to be broken
1270.94 inverted ratio is the "B" to "C" inverted at 127.2% needs to be broken

 

[BlindSquirrel]

Is seems that something is imminent, anyway


If the overarching trend is still in charge then we should ignore this falling wedge, right?

 

[Joules MM1]

Is seems that something is imminent, anyway
View attachment 93903

If the overarching trend is still in charge then we should ignore this falling wedge, right?

after 5 attempts to answer your question .......i started writing a book....and that's not going to happen

hour later ...make that 6 attempts that began first chapter of a book !!

instead, try these ....
https://www.elliottwave.com/Trading/Triangles-Offer-Traders-Important-Forecasting-Information

http://thepatternsite.com/BustAscTriangles.html#NOB2

....in technical ideas, very few drawn lines ever pass the 'random line on a chart' test

 

[Joules MM1]

a lot of exchanging ideas at todays low in xauusd, while silver has maintained a very bullish look holding the low of the wedge over several hours

closed my sells, re-open them if 1271's breaks down (front month cfd)
opened small longs on silver cfd stop 14.84's

 

[Joules MM1]

in this view a = c within C of a proposed ABCDE triangle yet to complete

just an idea based on equality of the a and c within the larger C down tends to fit passed patterning

 

[Joules MM1]

close-up inspection, risk assessment, possible truncated swing

 

[Joules MM1]

follow-on

as price develops so do structure(s) ....with impulsive sell (prev group finished their bid business, new group steps in - sellers)

 

[Joules MM1]

price action went quiet, prob one group getting out, action still supports longs

with a break of nearest ratio when activity goes quiet that's a time to consider exit if the prior impulse cannot find a continuation

 

[Joules MM1]

ratio construct is sealing current up-down-up sequence
for the bulls to get a leg up price must come lower to attract short covering energy to break-out upwards
..both groups of cfd players are extremely bullish (74%retail and 86% top clients) which is contrary to the low swing, theyre buying the low, not much fear
...small divergence in the arb
small size to suit the swing..likely more congestion till players return from easter and passover

 

[kid hustlr]

Where to now J?

Gold looks to be holding in at the lows - is it possible we head higher from here medium term?

All the major aussie gold stocks have been sold off quite hard over the past few weeks & months and are now starting to form 'classic head and should patterns'. All the more reason for me to keep an eye on the long side I think as I watch for a 'false break' of the pattern and the longer term uptrend to continue

 

[Joules MM1]

Where to now J?

Gold looks to be holding in at the lows - is it possible we head higher from here medium term?

All the major aussie gold stocks have been sold off quite hard over the past few weeks & months and are now starting to form 'classic head and should patterns'. All the more reason for me to keep an eye on the long side I think as I watch for a 'false break' of the pattern and the longer term uptrend to continue

rotation on hand, am long this, looking for 1295's front month cfd

after that i need to review ...still expecting another larger swing south, keen on low 1222's ish

nothing in stone tho

 

[Joules MM1]

classic!

soon as i look up price hits a double ratio and rotates south.....whacko BS set-up that was...nicely played, missed the gig completely......but i get em

 

[BlindSquirrel]

looks to be an upward trending support on the hourly & 4h chart. I'm looking to around 1285 at the moment, if it busts through there then up to circa 1295.

 

[Joules MM1]

waiting to see if xauusd can smash yest ratio resistance on gdp
risk is always the low of the first pull in the move



edit by the time i posted this, it cut thru

 

[Joules MM1]

saturday, need carafe sized java !!



the above chart still keeps alive the downside target until the higher swing levels are taken out (even then that action only 'substantially' reduces the odds of reaching the lower 1222-1219 61.8 zone)
i am especially warey of patterns that many traders can suddenly "see" as then those patterns rarely play out.... www.timingcharts.com COT GC print to this week (not inc yesterday) shows good uptick from commercial bid (blue)



this chart is a summary of this week, importantly, the "tri's" is were the give away that price was being marked up in a series of choppy non-impulsive legs leading to yesterdays trap-n-go

 

[BlindSquirrel]

The downward reaction to the news on Friday night stopped me out of the recovery... I had moved those stops up to just above my entry though so no loss.

 

[Joules MM1]

The downward reaction to the news on Friday night stopped me out of the recovery... I had moved those stops up to just above my entry though so no loss.

currently short looking for 1281's
price slammed into a ratio has changed it's personality meaning the bid that drove up price is not there now so what group in are in the auction right now is different based on how pattern is printing, anyways, we're due a small pullback and that 1281's level likely to inform if its a fishing expy for more supply or the friday high is terminal

 

[Joules MM1]

currently short looking for 1281's
price slammed into a ratio has changed it's personality meaning the bid that drove up price is not there now so what group in are in the auction right now is different based on how pattern is printing, anyways, we're due a small pullback and that 1281's level likely to inform if its a fishing expy for more supply or the friday high is terminal

plenty of chance to roll this thing and it's taking too long, cull the sell open small long for next target, s81's