VSA Chart Analysis Discussion Thread

tech/a · 13 September 2011

Post your charts here for VSA discussion and try your analysis here.
We can watch the following days and see how it pans out!

Include Chart Code with the chart Posted.
Have a go yourself.

Everyone welcome.

Billyb · 13 September 2011

I feel if this stock breaks it's major support around $1.50 then it could keep going down with it's trend possibly to around $1.30 (next support), however if it holds then it'll bounce back up. Given the number of weak bars (see chart), I think a good shorting opportunity may be near. However, there is evidence of accumulation in the background around Early august time, so still room to be cautious.

tech/a · 13 September 2011

I am so used to buying mainly breakouts. So that is often clear when to enter and often there is no overhead resistance to worry about.

When I look to enter on a down wave on, say a minor selling climax with positive volume indications, what are the best signs for me to look for to determine if price will THEN be able to push through the resistance to the left?

I guess I am so used to entering above resistance that I haven't thought to much about it before. Any time I'd approach new resistance previously, I would just tighten my stop. But in terms of pushing up through resistance I'm not so sure.

One thing I can think of is that pushing through the resistance is more likely if the stock shows little effort on the decline (no supply).

I guess there are two parts to this maybe both parts weren't meant as a question but worthy of discussion.
The following chart covers a little more than your question but I hope answers a lot of what you need to be looking for.

To end off a question for chartists applying their analysis.

CLICK TO EXPAND

BILLY
Yes nice analysis and I concur
Notice the gap away on some volume from support at $1.61/2 ish
I suggest $1.33 to be down side target if its breached.

5oclock · 13 September 2011

TECH looking at the last chart, the 3 up bars are supported by high volume ( bullish ). Next 2 bars are down bars on low volume ( indicating upside strength ). The next 2 bars I am not so sure about. Next bar is an up bar on low volume?Final bar also up bar but close in middle on high vol , sign of weakness?

5oclock · 13 September 2011

The last bar must be supply , again weakness. I would lift stop up to break even cause if price comes back down through support trade is a loss. I be abit clearer with the next bar.

Wysiwyg · 14 September 2011

tech/a said:
Post your charts here for VSA discussion and try your analysis here.
We can watch the following days and see how it pans out!

Not a real money expense with WEC so I will give it a go. From what I can gather the bar today is suggesting there is support for WEC around the $1.80 mark. The previous bar opened high and closed on its low but todays bar opened higher than yesterdays low and closed on its high today. I found this action via an AFL code that the name 'Karthik' created. He suggests this is a sign of strength. Also the volume is above the 50 day MA.

For a real time experiment I will buy on tomorrows open with a stop loss at $1.67 and a take profit on further VSA developments or if resistance is significant.

p.s. the secret formula for peeps & whisperers.

tminus · 14 September 2011

Wysiwyg said:
I found this action via an AFL code that the name 'Karthik' created.

Would you be able to share a link to the AFL code, I have been to his website but it has been dead for sometime, and I could not find links to the code, seems like they were taken down.
Thanks

captain black · 14 September 2011

tminus said:
Would you be able to share a link to the AFL code, I have been to his website but it has been dead for sometime, and I could not find links to the code, seems like they were taken down.
Thanks

There's copies of Karthik's code in the Amibroker VSA yahoo group files section along with several pdf files explaining VSA and Wyckoff principles. I use a modified version to trade K200 and DAX futures.

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/Amibroker-VSA/

captain black · 14 September 2011

A quick comment about Karthik's VSA or VPA as it's called. It's not designed to replicate the Tradeguider software, that would be silly and in his notes Karthik specifically states this. DO NOT take the signals like you would take Buy and Sell signals. All the signals do is alert you to a possible setup.

I found a lot of useful info. in Tradeguider's Youtube presentations. It's mostly about the Tradeguider software itself, but read between the lines in some of the low risk/high probability setups, match them to what you see in Karthik's AFL and work from there. I only trade the DAX and Korean Futures with VSA so can't comment on it's usefulness for stocks.

The Amibroker VSA yahoo group has some great reading in the files section as well. I found Gavin's videos on Youtube switched on the light for me but there's some great background stuff in the Yahoo Group's PDF's as well.

tminus · 14 September 2011

captain black said:
There's copies of Karthik's code
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/Amibroker-VSA/

Thanks

This is a question in regards to extreme volume. Who is behind it? it can't be regular traders as they wouldn't have the funds, it can't be smart money because they don't buy or sell in extreme volumes. Is it other investment companies or superannuation funds?

How would smart money react when this occurs, if it is a large sell order (I assume) like the one below , if they are in the process of accumulation would they dump all their holdings, as there is too much volume to absorb.

Also the market makers how do they deal with such a large sell order, how do they find buyers, do they do this by increasing the price prior to the execution order, like below.
DGX(US) 9/9/11 Friday

Wysiwyg · 14 September 2011

Wysiwyg said:
Not a real money expense with WEC so I will give it a go. From what I can gather the bar today is suggesting there is support for WEC around the $1.80 mark. The previous bar opened high and closed on its low but todays bar opened higher than yesterdays low and closed on its high today.

For a real time experiment I will buy on tomorrows open with a stop loss at $1.67 and a take profit on further VSA developments or if resistance is significant.

p.s. the secret formula for peeps & whisperers.

WEC had 5000 units available at $1.865 so hypothetically hold them.

Buy 5000 units @ $1.865
Stop Loss @ $1.67
Take Profit @ Some Stage

:

tech/a · 14 September 2011

Just a word of warning on outside code.
This code popped up very quickly on Indian sites.

The code is flawed in much of its design.

Unfortunately these guys didnt and still dont understand that much of the signals are developed over a number of bars not just a single bar which will give you very false signals as well as the odd correct signal.

If you use this code you will find yourself struggling to make sence of signals and price action.

I cant see the point in trying to understand a trading method using incorrect/code and information.

To show the Tradeguider Chart on WEC youll notice NO SIGNAL Where Wysiwyg has one.

CLICK TO EXPAND.

captain black · 14 September 2011

tech/a said:
Just a word of warning on outside code.
This code popped up very quickly on Indian sites.

The code is flawed in much of its design.

Unfortunately these guys didnt and still dont understand that much of the signals are developed over a number of bars not just a single bar which will give you very false signals as well as the odd correct signal.

If you use this code you will find yourself struggling to make sence of signals and price action.

I cant see the point in trying to understand a trading method using incorrect/code and information.

To show the Tradeguider Chart on WEC youll notice NO SIGNAL Where Wysiwyg has one.

I agree, however the great thing about using code that is fully disclosed such as the Amibroker code is that you can modify it so that you can make sense of the signals and price action. Learning what is wrong with the code is also a great lesson.

tech/a · 14 September 2011

So how do you do that when you have no idea if a signal is a correct one or not?

Its code from another user its not endorsed by Amibroker.
A user who is not versed in VSA---Thinks he is.

captain black · 14 September 2011

tech/a said:
Unfortunately these guys didnt and still dont understand that much of the signals are developed over a number of bars not just a single bar which will give you very false signals as well as the odd correct signal.

I should add that the code does reference previous bars in a number of it's signals. Some are good, others not so, but as mentioned before, it's easy to adjust and modify.

captain black · 14 September 2011

tech/a said:
So how do you do that when you have no idea if a signal is a correct one or not?

Its code from another user its not endorsed by Amibroker.
A user who is not versed in VSA---Thinks he is.

Sure, but it's publically available code to be used as a starting point for anyone interested in learning about VSA, as is the Amibroker VSA yahoo group. Anyone interested in learning and applying VSA techniques is free to use it and adjust it as they need, like I've done.

tech/a · 14 September 2011

captain black said:
Sure, but it's publically available code to be used as a starting point for anyone interested in learning about VSA, as is the Amibroker VSA yahoo group. Anyone interested in learning and applying VSA techniques is free to use it and adjust it as they need, like I've done.

Hmm

I want to play golf so I go to someone who thinks he knows how to play like Tiger Woods,Hes written a book and Shows some grips and stances which are similar to Tigers but not the same---he suggests you could play around with it if it doesnt work for you.

He also puts outs some clubs to help you play golf.
They too are similar to Tigers but I note some dont work at all infact he suggests you use a putter while at the bar---Tiger knows you dont use a putter or any club at the bar---there isnt a stroke to play.

But if it doesnt help your golf then play around with it as the advice is publically available and Free.

Personally I'd start with the Real deal.
VSA is Master the Markets and thats readily available FREE.
Software is rightly so---not free and under $1k for any serious VSA chartist.(EOD)

Wysiwyg · 14 September 2011

captain black said:
A quick comment about Karthik's VSA or VPA as it's called. It's not designed to replicate the Tradeguider software, that would be silly and in his notes Karthik specifically states this.

Does anyone know the exact VSA definitions for the bars? I notice stopping volume and up thrust is about right in the code but the others are a bit loose in their interpretation.

captain black · 14 September 2011

tech/a said:
Personally I'd start with the Real deal.

If that's the path you choose and it works for you then that's great. I have a background in open source software and Unix/Linux operating systems and prefer to understand how the underlying code works. The beauty of Open Source software is that you're able to do that. I carry that philosophy into my trading software as well. I want to see the underlying code and why it generates signals and modify that to suit my uses.

I didn't wish to hijack this thread with a debate over the benefits of Tradeguider versus other VSA software, each to their own. If people want something that works out of the box then Tradeguider will suit them. If they enjoy having the ability to modify software to suit different markets then Karthik's or TCoates VSA provides a great starting point to do this.

samanne1 · 14 September 2011

Nothing against VSA ...

** please correct me if I am wrong ***

If the book is free, then it is open to interpretation. In the book it makes statements like high volume and ultra high volume and over last few bars.

What is the (mathematical) definition of these terms? Unless proven and consistent is open to what the user thinks and your definition might be different to mine.

Is high volume 2 times timer than average volume? or 3 times higher? or 2 time higher than volume of last 2 bar?

Don't answer that... its just an example!

The program (however) would be using some algorithm to determine this and therefore would some sort of consistent way of determining this.

If someone wants to use Amibroker and has a script that works with it. Why can't they use it! The onus is on the user - akin to getting a new toy and then not bothering the read the instructions and finding you forgot to put in batteries. The individual that uses it should have some sort of basic understanding of the tools they use and software.

if those who developed the Amibroker code had the "code" (without reverse engineering) to determine "high volume" (and similar statement) then I am sure the signals would be a lot closer.

... back to topic

VSA Chart Analysis Discussion Thread

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

Billyb

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tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

5oclock

5oclock

Wysiwyg

Everyone wants money

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tminus

captain black

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tminus

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Wysiwyg

Everyone wants money

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

captain black

tech/a

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tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

Wysiwyg

Everyone wants money

captain black

samanne1

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