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SGP - Stockland Group

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Kruegs

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Hi there,

I have been observing Stockland Group, and its weakening price in recent weeks, which has only been further weakened following the 'correction' of last week.
I would have thought that with Stockland having a property portfolio in Australia/NZ, that the strengthening of the $A would have enhanced its share price. Additionally, seeing that Stockland is dealing in Australian property (not US), which is still fairly robust according to most, it would have been insulated from the recent downturn and 'credit' issues in the US. Any thoughts on this? Has Stockland been potentially oversold, or am I missing some fundamental issues. I am only fairly new to trading, so welcome anybody else's views on the stock.

Thanks,
Kruegs
 

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Hello Kruegs,
SGP has been a laggard stock recently and as a general rule I would focus on the strongest stock in the index your looking at, regardless of current market conditions.
 
I like Stockland and have held them for a few years but I'm a bit miffed by what's happening to them at the moment. It looked like they survived the initial "sub prime" crisis, then they seemed to survive the Centro issue,
but they have taken a battering lately hitting a new 16 month low today.

I must admit I did take some profits and reduce my holdings at the $9 mark and wonder if others have done the same or if people are worried about interest rates, sub prime, etc., affecting SGP's earnings. I am considering topping up again at these prices but will wait until we see some slowing in the decline.
 
Well someone likes this stock today. All afternoon there has been a buyer popping in every minute or so, as soon as the sp starts to slip the order goes in for a size of 1860 or 1859, time and time again. As soon as she slips a bit, there he is again. Will check the figures at the end of the day but it's definitely a sizeable position someone is building up......

Cheers
AV
 
Hmmm, looks like it's been happening for awhile. Only been back to last week but in that time our mysterious "1860" man (or woman) has picked up over 1 million shares. Someone obviously thinks it's a bargain. :D

Cheers
AV
 
In today's 6 monthly report releases is there a breakdown of trust earnings and corporation profit somewhere.

I want to get some idea of the level of distribution after this year.
 
Stockland today made a proposal for Aevum Limited retirement living operator, hence the hike, if successful, would almost double the size of Stockland’s
Retirement Living business.

Seems Stockland had 266 million in Cash siting there and wanted to double their size..
 
I've been following a few Realestate shares, and have noticed they are all trading at about 11-13PE which i can understand as everyone is still concerned about the value in housing however i have noticed SGP hasn't really moved over the last 18months although they do have a good dividend.

I'm looking at both WDC/WRT and GMG for possible exposure to Realestate and i find that SGP has a great model focussing on our aging population.

they seem to have good growth expectations and decent roughly 6% dividend.
Does anyone have any suggestions as to why they do not value higher especially with the ex-Dividend date for stockland coming up in a month or so.
 
enigmatic said:
I've been following a few Realestate shares, and have noticed they are all trading at about 11-13PE which i can understand as everyone is still concerned about the value in housing however i have noticed SGP hasn't really moved over the last 18months although they do have a good dividend.

I'm looking at both WDC/WRT and GMG for possible exposure to Realestate and i find that SGP has a great model focussing on our aging population.

they seem to have good growth expectations and decent roughly 6% dividend.
Does anyone have any suggestions as to why they do not value higher especially with the ex-Dividend date for stockland coming up in a month or so.
Click to expand...

Higher compared to what? Other listed realestate companies? On yield and price/NTA measures Stockland is probably on the cheap side... BTW aged cared is only a small part of their total earnings.

Code | Div Yield | Price / NTA
SGP | 6.51% | 0.96
MGR | 6.32% | 0.80
WDC | 5.26% | 1.27
GMG | 4.59% | 1.54
DXS | 5.73% | 0.90
GPT | 5.48% | 0.86

To me listed realestates actually represent better return than direct real estate at this moment... but you can't get the leverage with margin calls when it comes to realestate shares.

You can also take a look at SLF which in an exchange traded fund that gives you exposure to the whole sector (in exchange of some management fee). There is a thread on that here somewhere.
 
enigmatic said:
I've been following a few Realestate shares, and have noticed they are all trading at about 11-13PE which i can understand as everyone is still concerned about the value in housing however i have noticed SGP hasn't really moved over the last 18months although they do have a good dividend.

I'm looking at both WDC/WRT and GMG for possible exposure to Realestate and i find that SGP has a great model focussing on our aging population.

they seem to have good growth expectations and decent roughly 6% dividend.
Does anyone have any suggestions as to why they do not value higher especially with the ex-Dividend date for stockland coming up in a month or so.
Click to expand...

All the Real estate stocks are going sideways...have been for a long time now, occasionally one will run a littler higher (like DXS is ATM) and others will dip down like SGP is/has and CFX did just the other week....im Low Cost Averaging into DXS, CFX and ALZ...and considering buying some SGP for my super fund.
 
The thread has been arround since 2007 but from the number of posts to date (11 not including this one, 2 in 2007, 3 in 2008, 2 in 2009, 1 in 2010 and 3 in 2011) it would appear that the share flies under most peoples radar.

I have had SGP on a REIT watchlist for some time but have not been encouraged to trade it as the price movement has been too gradual and daily volumes (imo) too low.

It is capable of rising above $4.00 and holding there, so at the current price it has appeal as a sit and wait option taking advantage of the yield. My main concern is that in a sector where most of the shares are trading a significant discount to NTA SGP is trading at close to full nta and at $4.00 is at a premium to nta. The other shares in the sector have more scope for capital gain as they close the gap between price and nta.
 
nulla nulla said:
The thread has been arround since 2007 but from the number of posts to date (11 not including this one, 2 in 2007, 3 in 2008, 2 in 2009, 1 in 2010 and 3 in 2011) it would appear that the share flies under most peoples radar.

I have had SGP on a REIT watchlist for some time but have not been encouraged to trade it as the price movement has been too gradual and daily volumes (imo) too low.

It is capable of rising above $4.00 and holding there, so at the current price it has appeal as a sit and wait option taking advantage of the yield. My main concern is that in a sector where most of the shares are trading a significant discount to NTA SGP is trading at close to full nta and at $4.00 is at a premium to nta. The other shares in the sector have more scope for capital gain as they close the gap between price and nta.
Click to expand...

It's a $8.5B company with $23m daily turnover... I wouldn't say it's under the radar?!

Price/NTA can be higher for SGP vs a plain property-holding REIT because of development income. That's why WDC and GMG can trade above NTA while CPA and CFX only trades below...
 
nulla nulla said:
The thread has been arround since 2007 but from the number of posts to date (11 not including this one, 2 in 2007, 3 in 2008, 2 in 2009, 1 in 2010 and 3 in 2011) it would appear that the share flies under most peoples radar.
Click to expand...

skc said:
It's a $8.5B company with $23m daily turnover... I wouldn't say it's under the radar?!...
Click to expand...

Given it's size and strength I made the observation that SGP receives very little attention in this forum and in my observation...."from the number of posts to date (11 not including this one, 2 in 2007, 3 in 2008, 2 in 2009, 1 in 2010 and 3 in 2011) it would appear that the share flies under most peoples radar".

I didn't knock the share, I didn't disparage any one elses posts and I'm not trolling for an argument.
 
I don't want to make it sound like i haven't or have not currently got exposure to Realestate Shares. I held SGP for some time and had no luck so sold out at $3.77 so the drop to 3.50 has raised my interest again

I was hoping for exposure in Realestate again due to the high dividend return as my original exposure was for dividends and the growth possiblies that SGP have.

from what i continually read they all seem good shares however Debt and current Realestate market seems to be holding some back.

I too have been considering trading SGP nulla nulla due to its movements between 3.5 to 3.8 seem to be much better then holding long term. however i have yet to make that plunge.

The interest in SGP on ASF i wouldn't of thought is uncommon there seems to be alot less discussion about Blue chips on ASF.

DYOR
 
enigmatic said:
I don't want to make it sound like i haven't or have not currently got exposure to Realestate Shares. I held SGP for some time and had no luck so sold out at $3.77 so the drop to 3.50 has raised my interest again

I was hoping for exposure in Realestate again due to the high dividend return as my original exposure was for dividends and the growth possiblies that SGP have.

from what i continually read they all seem good shares however Debt and current Realestate market seems to be holding some back.

I too have been considering trading SGP nulla nulla due to its movements between 3.5 to 3.8 seem to be much better then holding long term. however i have yet to make that plunge.

The interest in SGP on ASF i wouldn't of thought is uncommon there seems to be alot less discussion about Blue chips on ASF.

DYOR
Click to expand...

Like most Australian REIT's sgp appears to have tracked down as the aud$ climbed. Previously I saw the low $3.50's as an entry point but I was hesitant to jump in at $3.51 recently as most of my capital was already committed and I have reservations about where the whole market is at the moment. I am wary of a correction and don't want to be caught, so I am trading more conservatively/cautiously atm.
I agree the recent spread of $3.50 - $3.80 as a short term trade is tempting, I'm just not sure it is tempting enough for me right now.

The chart looks good but the dip below $3.50 is a new low for the last 18 months.
 

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nulla nulla said:
Like most Australian REIT's sgp appears to have tracked down as the aud$ climbed. Previously I saw the low $3.50's as an entry point but I was hesitant to jump in at $3.51 recently as most of my capital was already committed and I have reservations about where the whole market is at the moment. I am wary of a correction and don't want to be caught, so I am trading more conservatively/cautiously atm.
I agree the recent spread of $3.50 - $3.80 as a short term trade is tempting, I'm just not sure it is tempting enough for me right now.

The chart looks good but the dip below $3.50 is a new low for the last 18 months.
Click to expand...

I'm going to buy some SGP for my super fund, i figure this SP substantial low is an opportunity that i just cant pass up....Retail, Residential build and Retirement is a great set of exposures to get in one stock.

Sure there are potential negatives ahead with residential and retail weakness but its a certainty that there will be a turn around for both industry's at some point in time and that there will always be a core demand for both, the growth in retirement is a total no brainer. :2twocents

Dividend coming up is a bonus. :)
 
So_Cynical said:
I'm going to buy some SGP for my super fund, i figure this SP substantial low is an opportunity that i just cant pass up....Retail, Residential build and Retirement is a great set of exposures to get in one stock.

Sure there are potential negatives ahead with residential and retail weakness but its a certainty that there will be a turn around for both industry's at some point in time and that there will always be a core demand for both, the growth in retirement is a total no brainer. :2twocents

Dividend coming up is a bonus. :)
Click to expand...

Did you get on or elect to wait for the better dividend ratio's from the likes of Dexus, CPA and/or MAP?

imo sgp seems to be struggling atm. As always dyor.
 

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nulla nulla said:
Did you get on or elect to wait for the better dividend ratio's from the likes of Dexus, CPA and/or MAP?

imo sgp seems to be struggling atm. As always dyor.
Click to expand...

Yep got 2070 shares on Monday and in a week or so ill find put how much they cost me :banghead: i can see no realistic reason why the SP will stay this low for any significant length of time...SGP is just another big real estate stock and we have both been successfully trading the property stocks in this sideways market for a long time now.

Happy to hold till SGP comes good.
 
Recent lows have been lower and the highs lower as well. Hitting $3.35 interday on June 6th was a new low but market support seems to have rallied and pushed it back up. Certainly worth keeping on the watchlist atm.
 

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