Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

QBE - QBE Insurance Group

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Well it still has a really good broker rating after yesterdays announcement so I think it will rise substancially next month for the dividend payment of 62cents. I'm banking on the fact it will bounce off 16 but could be 15 (unlikely). I couldn't imagine it going under 15 unless there is really bad news. I have bought a substancial amount of this stock today.
 
I've finally listened to some good advice ,:) out today at the close of trade .:eek:


Waiting for the support level to form and hopefully get on the rise back for the dividend . should get a nice rise up :2twocents if i time the buy right . But i'm not watching it fall any longer . :mad:

Seems i think a whole lot better while i'm not in the market .:)
 
After a low low open this morning has bounced nicely. IMO this is an excellent point to jump in, which I have, as their latest release, apart from the equity losses, has only good news, and it seems like a major overreaction given that dividend has been maintained, they still have $2.7bn in spare capital to continue acquisitions, profit addons to come online over the next 2-3 years, etc.

Pity I didn't get on first thing, bought in at 16.75, expecting a bounce to 18+ over the next few weeks as reality kicks back in;)
 
Best time to buy is in the morning as they seem to get sold off , i sold at $16.75 was expecting a pull back to near $16.60 to re-enter but have decided to wait and see what happens over the weekend , i don't really want to hold stock as the market seems a little fragile again , the neikki is down 1.78 % and am expecting the dow to drop tonight again as futures are down 40 points .Thats just my opinion :eek:. But they are very well supported around the 16.75 area .

If the Dow drops over the weekend i'm hoping to rebuy at around $16.30 monday .
 
I think the 16 dollar days are numbered. We are now into August, dividends moving closer. it's going to have to rise soon. I'm reluctant to sell any of my shares under the 1730 mark with a target buy back of 1700 - 1708.
 
For many months, one of my favourite "investor commentators" has kept saying how "we like QBE"; sadly, each time I looked at QBE's chart, it had dropped another level. On the attached chart, each time a promised recovery hits resistance, my program starts to draw a new orange horizontal line.
(The orange text is my own addition, to make the message stand out.)
Put less theatrically, one could point out that a succession of lower Lows and lower Highs constitutes a falling trend.
Remember: A trend remains a trend till the bend at its end.
QBE 30-07-10.gif
 
i've been watching this one for many years now, and investing in it since 2008.
what i have seen is how remarkably when ever its price has fallen significantly(since 2001) due to negative sentiment in the sector, it has always bounced back strong after reality kicks in. An excellent management team is always a key indicator for me.
do your own research. this ones a keeper.:)
 
DOC said:
i've been watching this one for many years now, and investing in it since 2008.
what i have seen is how remarkably when ever its price has fallen significantly(since 2001) due to negative sentiment in the sector, it has always bounced back strong after reality kicks in. An excellent management team is always a key indicator for me.
do your own research. this ones a keeper.:)
Click to expand...

Yup, I concur with you. You must remember QBE only hit $15 last year because of a computer error. It actually went all the way down to $10 in a day but they opened it back up at $15 and it boomed straight up to $16 and higher. It was back at $19 within a month. There's more upside than downside to this stock so I don't see reason for it to keep falling.

I found Pixel's graph very humorous and his line A trend remains a trend till the bend at its end.
 reminds me of something out of a Seinfeld episode.:D
 
DOC said:
i've been watching this one for many years now, and investing in it since 2008.
what i have seen is how remarkably when ever its price has fallen significantly(since 2001) due to negative sentiment in the sector, it has always bounced back strong after reality kicks in. An excellent management team is always a key indicator for me.
do your own research. this ones a keeper.:)
Click to expand...

With all due respect, you guys have got to be kidding. This thing has dropped from over $35 in Sept 2007 and from just over $32 in 2008 and is now just hanging on above $16, how can that be a profitable investment.
A 62 cent (not fully franked) dividend is not going to save it from that reality.
A 50% loss requires a 100% gain to restore it, apply time to that scenario and it puts large downtrends in perspective.

It is a good trading stock in both directions if you catch the turns and apply basic capital protection rules.

That's just my my :2twocents worth from a "the trend is your friend til the bend at the end" approach.

A potential trade scenario below.
.
 

Attachments

  • QBE 300710.png
    QBE 300710.png
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Boggo said:
It is a good trading stock in both directions if you catch the turns and apply basic capital protection rules.
Click to expand...

And noticeably gradually increasing volume rose above average 4 of 5 days last week. Possible 'reprieve' from the relentless downward drive for pivot pickers is the way I see it while a rising index could save the day as with all boats and tides further down the track. :)
 
Definitely in a serious downtrend agreed, but a downtrend that has just been exacerbated by a one-off writedown that has overshadowed otherwise very good results. These results IMO would have been enough to turn the downtrend, indeed will turn it, however the equity loss spooked holders to sell down which IMO has provided an OUTSTANDING opportunity to get in well below where the turning point would otherwise have been.

Of course this is all IMO and we will have to wait and see whether the trade is proved valid over the course of the next month;)
 
Wysiwyg said:
And noticeably gradually increasing volume rose above average 4 of 5 days last week. Possible 'reprieve' from the relentless downward drive for pivot pickers is the way I see it while a rising index could save the day as with all boats and tides further down the track. :)
Click to expand...

It is playing by the rules that the software predicted on the 23rd so it is potentially worth a look for a $400 risk especially when combined with the current levels of enthusiasm associated with the upcoming dividend.

Note that my comments are based on my procedures and are not a recommendation.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=569559&postcount=207
 
jonojpsg said:
Definitely in a serious downtrend agreed, but a downtrend that has just been exacerbated by a one-off writedown that has overshadowed otherwise very good results. These results IMO would have been enough to turn the downtrend, indeed will turn it, however the equity loss spooked holders to sell down which IMO has provided an OUTSTANDING opportunity to get in well below where the turning point would otherwise have been.

Of course this is all IMO and we will have to wait and see whether the trade is proved valid over the course of the next month;)
Click to expand...

with you there jonojpsg, but whats the go - the traders think it's a good trading stock atm, the investors think its a good investment at the moment and with a dividend, everyone is happy. All the broker coverage reported has been saying "BUY" which makes me worry. I hear traders screaming sell, probably sensibly, although I agree with others that the div yield will support the sp, particularly with a very solid history behind it. Buffet would be greedy right now.
the trend is great, anyone interested in throwing a floor out there?

Have a look at reported shorts just out of interest:

QBE QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED FPO 6,323,051 953,403 15.07 -.83 1,035,071,131 .09

15% of shares traded as shorts, Friday...
In contrast, Navitas had just over 50% shorts.

I know that you should never attempt to pick the bottom. but anonymously it is something of a novelty. Good luck with QBE this week I'm sure we'll all be watching closely.
 
Boggo said:
With all due respect, you guys have got to be kidding. This thing has dropped from over $35 in Sept 2007 and from just over $32 in 2008 and is now just hanging on above $16, how can that be a profitable investment.
A 62 cent (not fully franked) dividend is not going to save it from that reality.
A 50% loss requires a 100% gain to restore it, apply time to that scenario and it puts large downtrends in perspective.

It is a good trading stock in both directions if you catch the turns and apply basic capital protection rules.

That's just my my :2twocents worth from a "the trend is your friend til the bend at the end" approach.

A potential trade scenario below.
.
Click to expand...
I agree. But then I simply never buy into a downtrend.

jonojpsg said:
Definitely in a serious downtrend agreed, but a downtrend that has just been exacerbated by a one-off writedown that has overshadowed otherwise very good results.
Click to expand...
jono, how do you know this 'one-off' event will not be followed by further 'one-off' events? What makes you sure that the SP is going to shortly reverse its downtrend?
 
At least QBE are picking up a few new assets at depressed prices. Will probably do well over the next few years and turn themselves round like conglomerate Wesfarmers - yield will remain a bullish factor, especially when dividends eventually rise.
 
Julia said:
I agree. But then I simply never buy into a downtrend.


jono, how do you know this 'one-off' event will not be followed by further 'one-off' events? What makes you sure that the SP is going to shortly reverse its downtrend?
Click to expand...

Good point Julia - I don't know that there are not more "one-offs" to come, hopefully given QBE's situation the only write-downs that are likely to prove significant would be equity-related, especially now they have shown the numbers on premium income are all good.

Also don't know the trend is about to turn, but as I said, the numbers they just released look pretty darn good to me, and if I was looking for a blue-chip to buy into, this would be close to top of my list, which probably means, given that I tend to be a speccy trader, that there must be a lot of other more conservative types out there who would be thinking the same thing.

Anyways, nice jump today, we'll see whether it is the turn of the tide or just a small wave;)
 
Poppypop said:
I think the 16 dollar days are numbered. We are now into August, dividends moving closer. it's going to have to rise soon. I'm reluctant to sell any of my shares under the 1730 mark with a target buy back of 1700 - 1708.
Click to expand...

My prediction was right on the money. Sold on the open at 1730, I bought back at 1706 later in the day. Looking at buying more back tomorrow if it drops down to 1670 - 75. I highly doubt it will get below 1650 this time around. I'm expecting it to hit 1800 next week and 1900 the week after.
 
This is one of the most recommended stocks by Brokers in the market. Also one of the worst performing. Don't you love those brokers...
 
I dont usually take brokers and analyst opinion but you got to give it a bit of time ...you don't expect to buy stock and next week it goes up, if you are a trader you probably do :)

one of the reason I'm staying out because of LMI ... QBE is one of them
and Australian housing look a bit shaky to me could be an event
that could trigger a bit of un-happy time :D
 

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