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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

:ald:
kennas said:
Jai, Why does just about every post of yours end in a question mark?

Why not add in your own thoughts?

Do you think a 1.5% drop on the DJI is a positive or negative lead?

Or do you think any other news announced since the close might turn it around?

Or, what`s you TA telling you?

kennas
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It ends in a question mark as it a question.... Just like the 5 QUESTIONS you just asked. Pretty straight foward really.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

No money available to leverage, not bull run.

All the way down till we deleverage properly. Even then, it will be "save to invest", not "borrow to invest" for quite some time.

With some exceptions, most of the stocks will be grinding up once the bear has gone to hibernation.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Actually I think he answered it perfectly and Id be suprised if Kennas doesnt agree!
I'm sure you see my point Struzball.
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I agree, a question does end in a question mark, and I too have failed to add any value to this thread recently. :cautious:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

An XAO Fibonacci retracement hypothetical. Any mathematicians on board. I'm not a mathematician.

OK let's see. Feb 2003 = 2800 ; Oct 2007 = 6750 ; Leg = 3950
Retracement by Fibonacci ratios 21 34 55 89 144:

6750 - (% of 3950)
21% = 5920
34% = 5407
55% = 4577
89% = 3234
144% = 1062

Other ratios I have seen used
66% = 4143
78% = 3669

If only it was so simple. Many other macro economic are factors in operation. I had thought somewhere between 4000 to 4500 for the downleg, but perhaps need to start thinking about 3500 to 4000.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Logique said:
An XAO Fibonacci retracement hypothetical. Any mathematicians on board. I'm not a mathematician.

OK let's see. Feb 2003 = 2800 ; Oct 2007 = 6750 ; Leg = 3950
Retracement by Fibonacci ratios 21 34 55 89 144:

6750 - (% of 3950)
21% = 5920
34% = 5407
55% = 4577
89% = 3234
144% = 1062

Other ratios I have seen used
66% = 4143
78% = 3669

If only it was so simple. Many other macro economic are factors in operation. I had thought somewhere between 4000 to 4500 for the downleg, but perhaps need to start thinking about 3500 to 4000.
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Well, if we stay in the Big Bad Bear Cave for long enough, the long term trend might just fit that range... :eek:
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

I think over that time frame, the XAO makes more sense with a semi-log scale.

In the charts below, the lower red line is currently around 3850, but could be around 4000 or so when prices reach it if the current downward trend continues at about the same slope.

GP
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

The XAO continues to drive down, and should now become more aggressive now that it is has entered Wave iii of (iii). The previous alternate count for wave c completing wave ii should be well and truly out of the picture.

There was some discussion last week that wave (IV) up in the diagram appeared to be impulsive (5 waves) that would have allowed further upside potential. It turned out not to be the case, and if fact was a double zig-zag correction. One giveaway (after further analysis) was the wave structures in wave (IV) operate very tightly between parallel lines - pointing to a corrective wave versus an impulse wave. Almost all impulse waves fall outside the parallel lines quite considerably. In many cases what looks like a "perfect" elliott wave where all points (5) touch the parallel lines are in fact double (or triple) corrective waves.

In the short term, Wave (V) appears to be subdividing and will become the extended wave count, suggesting further downside action before a correction plays out and will form wave II circle up. The aggressive downtrend will then continue (for some time).
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

I thought I'd post some longer term outlook charts using Elliottwave on the XAO. If anyone else has a view, pls post if possible

Chart 1 shows the logic used in predicting the Medium term outlook, but using the bull leg from early 2003 to show wave relationships. Charts 2 and 3 assume that wave 3 is the extended wave (as it usually is).

Chart 2 shows the outlook based on the completed wave (ii)

Chart 3 further refines the outlook using completed wave ii of a lower degree
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

OzWaveGuy said:
I thought I'd post some longer term outlook charts using Elliottwave on the XAO. If anyone else has a view, pls post if possible

Chart 1 shows the logic used in predicting the Medium term outlook, but using the bull leg from early 2003 to show wave relationships. Charts 2 and 3 assume that wave 3 is the extended wave (as it usually is).

Chart 2 shows the outlook based on the completed wave (ii)

Chart 3 further refines the outlook using completed wave ii of a lower degree
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This should read "Chart 2 shows the outlook based on the completed wave 2" not wave (ii)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

FTSE down 5%, DAX same, CAC craking 6%. US futs down 2.5%.

Makes me feel a little bullish. for opportunities of the bouncy type. :bounce:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

It is much more likley that this movement down will be an ABC with one of the down legs subidviding into a 5 wave movement and the other leg alternating with a 3 leg movement. The problem with the above analysis is that ultimatley the 5 waves down would only be an a leg, so then we would have to have a b leg up and then some sort of c leg down again. This is extemely unlikely givent he size of the ranges involved

Generally speaking it is a requirement that after 5 waves down the abc retracement must exceed the wave 4 high to be a able to be classified as an ABC retracement. The high on 18 May exceeded the wave 4 high of the 5 waves down, therefor it is likely that 18 may 08 is the B wave high.

Anyway have a look at 4273 which is the 61.8 retrace of the bull run up, 4316 is the 1-1 ABC move down off the top, if we consider that the 18 May high is infact the B wave high. I expect that this area will pull the market up, at least for a while and then we will see how it goes.

The strange thing is that whatever count end up being right, if we trully do get down to the low 3000's then we are going to have a humungus recession in Australia. It would basically mean that as far as stocks are concerned everyone who lent on margin in the bull run up would have completely doen their capital. When we start thinking about that it means that there would also have to be a horendous housing market slump because so much money was borrowed by investers against their property equity and the share equity they had.

Personally I don't think it will happen but anything is possible.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kotim said:
It is much more likley that this movement down will be an ABC with one of the down legs subidviding into a 5 wave movement and the other leg alternating with a 3 leg movement. The problem with the above analysis is that ultimatley the 5 waves down would only be an a leg, so then we would have to have a b leg up and then some sort of c leg down again. This is extemely unlikely givent he size of the ranges involved

Generally speaking it is a requirement that after 5 waves down the abc retracement must exceed the wave 4 high to be a able to be classified as an ABC retracement. The high on 18 May exceeded the wave 4 high of the 5 waves down, therefor it is likely that 18 may 08 is the B wave high.

Anyway have a look at 4273 which is the 61.8 retrace of the bull run up, 4316 is the 1-1 ABC move down off the top, if we consider that the 18 May high is infact the B wave high. I expect that this area will pull the market up, at least for a while and then we will see how it goes.

The strange thing is that whatever count end up being right, if we trully do get down to the low 3000's then we are going to have a humungus recession in Australia. It would basically mean that as far as stocks are concerned everyone who lent on margin in the bull run up would have completely doen their capital. When we start thinking about that it means that there would also have to be a horendous housing market slump because so much money was borrowed by investers against their property equity and the share equity they had.

Personally I don't think it will happen but anything is possible.
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Right, terrible times would lie ahead if the levels are reached :eek: However, to your point, corrections tend to end in the price range of wave 4, hence a possible ending point is in the range of the 1987 low (which appears to play out in a multi-year triangle ending in Nov 1992).
 
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