Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Zinc the metal for 2006

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rederob said:
That's a bit silly.
If there is nothing coming in, and nothing going out, because there just is nothing available, then what better picture do you want?
Get with the program lad!
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LME is just a base for leftovers (basemetals)

Most of the actual buying and selling is outside LME

Its possible that there is virtually nothing in LME, but the outside market is in perfect balance, so prices wont skyrocket

Also alot of "Ins" are more dangeours than low "cancellations", cause cancellations may be "fake" buying (eg by hedge/pension funds), but there cant be fake selling into LME right?

thx

MS

lmeoj7.jpg
 
LME is just a base for leftovers (basemetals)
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If that were so then no metal would be drawn into LME warehouses when demand was tight.
In reality the opposite occurs.
High backwardation is in fact a safety valve for exchange warehouses, immediately drawing in metal because more is paid in the spot market than in the futures market.

Most of the actual buying and selling is outside LME
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Quite true, and justly so.
Consumers must lock in supply from producers, typically via long term contracts, in order to maintain steady production of their business lines.

Its possible that there is virtually nothing in LME, but the outside market is in perfect balance, so prices wont skyrocket
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Have never seen any example of this in the years I have been following base metals. LME and other exchange warehouses carry inventory in many cases simply because producers no longer feel they need to. For example, "just in time" production sees the carrying risk borne by warehouses rather than themselves: There is a significant cost to carrying inventory, and carrying "excess" inventory is nowadays folly.

Also alot of "Ins" are more dangeours than low "cancellations", cause cancellations may be "fake" buying (eg by hedge/pension funds), but there cant be fake selling into LME right?
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The issue of "faking" is not one I have paid much attention to because the players in these markets stump up with plenty of money to establish a position, and the regulators would be on dishonest practices in a flash. Note that this is different to simply writing futures that could catch the writer short (a la Lui Qibing and the SRB fiasco).
 
Zinc stocks are plummeting this week and cancelled warrants have increased markedly.
Given we are in the lull of the northern metals market, present action suggests that the last quarter's action will be hectic and prices rocket.
I am now tipping zinc to comfortably finish this year within cooee of $5000 per tonne.
 
rederob said:
Zinc stocks are plummeting this week and cancelled warrants have increased markedly.
Given we are in the lull of the northern metals market, present action suggests that the last quarter's action will be hectic and prices rocket.
I am now tipping zinc to comfortably finish this year within cooee of $5000 per tonne.
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MMMMMMMM, CBH, PEM, ZFX, KZL :D

mmmmmmmm, TZN, JML, AIM, UCL :)
 
michael_selway said:
Is Copper& Nickel really that bullish?

thx

MS
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http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business...e-to-end-report/2006/07/26/1153816215447.html

Access is tipping nickel prices to fall about 45 per cent between now and 2008, with slightly smaller falls for copper, cobalt, alumina, zinc and tin.

"Prices of base metals (excluding zinc), alumina, cobalt, oil and coking coal are expected to fall from their June quarter peaks over the forecast period.

"Prices are expected to fall by more than 15 per cent in each case, while copper prices are expected to fall by more than 40 per cent."
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thx

MS
 
I will still be in the Bahamas,Trinidad and Jamica next year thanks to zinc watching the cricket.
 
Does any1 agree with me that it seems that the rate of decline of LME zinc stocks is increasing? :D
 
Strange Zinc is down almost 3% while all other base metals are up :confused: :confused: :confused:

There may have been a very large add-in, we won't know until tomorrow, unless someone has live info and can shed light on stock levels?
 
YOUNG_TRADER said:
Strange Zinc is down almost 3% while all other base metals are up :confused: :confused: :confused:

There may have been a very large add-in, we won't know until tomorrow, unless someone has live info and can shed light on stock levels?
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rederob should the live LME supply info, can you let us know?

thx

MS
 
YOUNG_TRADER said:
For some reason LME Stock levels weren't available at Kitco today,


RedRob a little help please :confused:
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And again today, no info on stock levels, Redrob or MS you got any info on Zinc activity?

Thanks
 
YOUNG_TRADER said:
And again today, no info on stock levels, Redrob or MS you got any info on Zinc activity?

Thanks
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Alot of in today and -ve cancelled!

lmeeg6.jpg


26.6%. It’s still a high level but not quite as dramatic as we have got used to in registered zinc stocks.

thx

MS
 
i wasnt happy seeing the total stocks go up by 10,200tonnes but yeh doesnt matter spot price didnt seem to react to drastically..

hurricane season is here.... :D
 
nizar said:
i wasnt happy seeing the total stocks go up by 10,200tonnes but yeh doesnt matter spot price didnt seem to react to drastically..

hurricane season is here.... :D
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nizar
In june last year there was a massive inflow of zinc (+110k tonne from memory) and it too had a minimal impact on the price or trend at the time.
14 months later stock levels are some 450,000 tonnes lower, and markedly lower than any time in the last 5 years.
And the difference 5 years ago was that zinc demand was poor, and stock builds grew substantially.
I expect that within the fortnight yesterday's delivery will be but an oblivious pimple on the face of zinc's glorious profile.
 
rederob said:
nizar
In june last year there was a massive inflow of zinc (+110k tonne from memory) and it too had a minimal impact on the price or trend at the time.
14 months later stock levels are some 450,000 tonnes lower, and markedly lower than any time in the last 5 years.
And the difference 5 years ago was that zinc demand was poor, and stock builds grew substantially.
I expect that within the fortnight yesterday's delivery will be but an oblivious pimple on the face of zinc's glorious profile.
Click to expand...

yeah every now and then there appears "ins" from no where

lmesx3.jpg


thx

MS
 
Mike... it's 1:30 am... get some sleep. Metal prices aren't gonna move all weekend so relax... (unless of course you live on the Wes Coast, in which case it's 11:30.. still too late to be thinking about Zinc on Friday!
michael_selway said:
yeah every now and then there appears "ins" from no where

lmesx3.jpg


thx

MS
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