Zinc the metal for 2006

UBS forecasts

Cash zinc prices, up nearly 80% since the beginning of the year on the LME, are seen at 165.4c/lb, or $3,649/ton for 2006, up 65% on the January forecast and at 185c/lb or $4,081/ton for 2007, up 95% on the previous outlook.

"Improving fundamentals are no better reflected than in the highly visible inventory levels on the LME. Inventories of refined zinc in LME warehouses currently total 266,000 tons compared with 394,000 tons at the end of 2005," UBS said.

Around two-thirds of these stocks are held in LME warehouses in New Orleans, which were damaged in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, UBS added. The cash nickel forecast is up 15% at 761.2c/lb, or $16,794/ton for 2006 and up 40% for 2007 on the previous forecast at 765c/lb, or $16,878/ton.

Base metal forecasts LME cash, in cents a pound.

2006 2007
Copper 246.7 265.0
Aluminum 126.2 127.5
Nickel 761.2 765.0
Zinc 165.4 185.0
Lead 59.0 57.3

Click to expand...

Nizar
UBS needs to work on its maths.
Copper is already 80cents higher than their 2006 forecast.
So we need copper to retrace a full dollar and remain at that level from tomorrow until the end of the year for UBS to be close to right.
Flying pigs have got more appeal.

A view of some activity before the last price spike: http://www.marketthoughts.com/images/20051120/chart03.gif

And current prices: http://www.sucden.co.uk/sucden-bin/charts/chart.asp?com=zinc

Zinc, Copper and Silver Market Fundamentals



Metal Price Performance in US Dollars (as at February 17, 2006)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Metal Historic Historic 25 Recent Historic Recent Price
25 Year Year High Price Increase
High Bottom Increase from Cycle
(pre this From Cycle Bottom
cycle) Bottoms
---------- ---------- ----------- ---------- ----------- ------------
Copper $1.52 $0.62 $2.32 245% 375%
---------- ---------- ----------- ---------- ----------- ------------
Nickel $8.42 $1.76 $8.05 478% 457%
---------- ---------- ----------- ---------- ----------- ------------
Aluminum $1.08 $0.47 $1.18 230% 251%
---------- ---------- ----------- ---------- ----------- ------------
Lead $0.48 $0.17 $0.64 282% 376%
---------- ---------- ----------- ---------- ----------- ------------
Zinc $0.91 $0.34 $1.08 267% 317%
---------- ---------- ----------- ---------- ----------- ------------
Source: Yukon Zinc Corporation


April 26, 2006 (Kitco): Zinc $1.53, Copper $3.13, Silver $12.72.

Zinc consumers are reducing inventories because refined production cannot keep pace with consumption. Smelter and refinery capacity are approximately equal with demand, but a deficit is being created because mines are not supplying sufficient concentrate to the smelters, which is causing smelters to produce below capacity. The underlying problem is that zinc reserves are being depleted faster than new production is coming on line. To compound this situation, there is a lack of new discoveries, and very few projects that are expected to begin production. Sierra Mojada is among the few projects that could potentially come on line in the next few years



The following table indicates zinc projects that are currently in development, as well as mines that are expected to be restarted in the near future:

New Mines Start Zinc Lead Capex Source
Production tpa tpa
----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Lanping, China Late 2005?? 140,000
----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Dairi, Indonesia Late 90,000 50,000 US$118M Brook Hunt
2006/07 Nov 2005
----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Jaguar, Australia Early 2007 25,000 Brook Hunt
Nov 2005----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Duck Pond, NFLD Late 2006 34,500 Macquarie
Canada
----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
San Cristobal, Early 2007? 182,500 85,000 US600M Apex silver
Bolivia
----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Duddar, Pakistan Late 2007 100,000 Macquarie
----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Cerro Lindo, Peru Mid 2007 140,000 20,000 Brook Hunt
Nov 2005
----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Perkoa, Burkina Late 2007 60,000 $US72.5 Mining
Faso News, Dec
2005----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Wolverine, Canada Q3 2007 44,000 4,000
----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Aljustrel, 2007? 78,000 18,000 Brook Hunt
Portugal Nov 2005
----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Subtotal 2006 and 754,000 177,000
2007
----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Development
Projects
----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Mehdiabad, Iran 2010 450,000 110,000 Brook Hunt
Nov 2005
----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Penasequito, Mid 2008 75,000 40,000 Brook Hunt
Mexico Nov 2005
----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Khandiza, 2008? 45,000 17,000 Brook Hunt
Uzbekistan Nov 2005
----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Expansions,
Restarts,
Reductions
----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Endeavor, Mine 85,000? 52,000? Brook Hunt
Australia failure Nov 2005
CBH Resources Oct 2005
and
restart----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Balmat, USA Mid 2006 35 mths to $20M Brook Hunt
ramp up to Nov 2005
54,000
----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Lennard Shelf, 18 mths 180,000 TeckCominco
Australia after Jan 2006
restart
decision
----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Sa Dena Hess, 9 to 24 40,000 TeckCominco
Canada mths after Jan 2006
a decision
----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Antamina, Peru Est.120,000 TeckCominco
vs Jan 2006
184,000 in
2005
----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Langlois, Canada Mid 2007 54,000 Brook Hunt
Nov 2005
----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Black Mountain- 2005 Increase
Deeps expansion, from
Namibia 28,200 to
45,000
----------------- ----------- ----------- -------- ------- -----------
Source: Yukon Zinc Corporation


These additions are expected to be partially or totally offset by mine closures due to reserve depletion.

Andrew Roebuck of TeckCominco has forecasted that mine closures will remove 1.4 million tonnes of zinc production by 2011. The Lennard Shelf deposit in Australia, with historic annual production of 180,000 tonnes of zinc, is expected to be restarted, but at this production rate, it is expected to have only 18 months of reserves left.

As indicated in the above table, the estimated amount of possible new production and expansions, ignoring the possible closure of the 160,000 tonne McArthur River mine in Australia's Northern Territory, is projected to be about 1.3 million tonnes, which is about the amount needed to replace the projected closures.

The supply deficit is currently at least 450,000 tonnes per annum and new consumption grew last year by more than 600,000 tonnes. The deficit will be with us for the foreseeable future, until new zinc deposits are discovered or existing zinc production is expanded. In some cases, new or expanded production would likely not be justified for low grade deposits until the price of zinc increases further.

The price for zinc has improved dramatically from its low of $0.335 per pound on November 7, 2001 to $1.53 per pound on April 26, 2006. The inventory of zinc traded on the LME has fluctuated from a low of 240,000 tonnes in May 2001 to a high of 790,000 tonnes in April of 2004, with a subsequent decline to the present 260,000 tonnes.

The copper and silver supply demand fundamentals are very similar to the above documentation for zinc. Demand exceeds supply and mine production is in deficit to both demand and metal production, hence the depletion of inventories of all three metals. All three metals have a deficit between consumption and mine production and a lack of new discovery sufficient to satisfy projected increase in consumption. Zinc, copper and silver prices are expected to continue to increase and remain strong due to increasing demand and inadequate supply. This situation will likely persist until sufficient new production can be discovered, developed and put into production to balance the markets of each of the metals. The process to develop a new mine, from discovery through production, generally takes 10 to 15 years. Metalline has been exploring and developing Sierra Mojada for 10 years.

Metals rank in the order of tonnes consumed: iron, aluminum, copper and zinc. Silver ranks among the most important of the precious metals and has a strong, increasing, industrial demand.

Zinc, copper and silver are among the most important metals to the world's industrial economy JML or CBH anyone?

YOUNG_TRADER said:

Zinc, Copper and Silver Market Fundamentals

Metals rank in the order of tonnes consumed: iron, aluminum, copper and zinc. Silver ranks among the most important of the precious metals and has a strong, increasing, industrial demand.

Zinc, copper and silver are among the most important metals to the world's industrial economy JML or CBH anyone?

Click to expand...

When does JMl start producton again and how much? when will it be in full production and how much?

CBH is good although not in full production to September 06?

thx

MS

Zinc - Outlook for 2006

8. Global usage of refined zinc metal is forecast to increase by 4.8% to 11.19 million tonnes in 2006. Growth will be strongest in Asia where demand is forecast to rise by 7.3% in China, 9.1% in India, 4.5% in Japan and 4.4% in the Republic of Korea. Demand in the United States is expected to recover by 11.4% after falling steeply in 2005. In Europe, increases in Finland, Germany, Poland, the Russian Federation and Spain will be partially balanced by falls in Belgium, France and Italy resulting in an overall rise of 1.4%.

9. It is anticipated that global zinc mine output will increase by 4.5% to 10.42 million tonnes. Production in Australia is forecast to rise by 8.9% and in India by 10%. European output will benefit from increases in Greece, Ireland, the Russian Federation and Sweden and is expected to rise by 8%.

10. A further 4.3% increase in world refined zinc metal production to 10.71 million tonnes in 2006 will be influenced primarily by rises of 8.6% in China and 44% in India. Increases are also forecast in Australia, Belgium, Canada, Kazakhstan, the Republic of Korea and the Netherlands.

11. Chinese net imports of zinc metal are forecast to rise to 285,000 tonnes. It is expected that most of this material will continue to be sourced in Kazakhstan.

12. Overall, after also having taken into consideration release from the United States Defense National Stockpile, the Group continues to anticipate a substantial deficit in the Western World refined zinc market. Current forecasts indicate a shortfall of 437,000 tonnes.

Click to expand...

http://www.ilzsg.org/archives.asp?go=getarchive&num=132

zinc seems to be stuck in the 1.45-1.55 range for the last 2 weeks or so...

when is it going to start moving again?

nizar said:

zinc seems to be stuck in the 1.45-1.55 range for the last 2 weeks or so...

when is it going to start moving again?

Click to expand...

Nizar you have to look at "Live Warrants" thats why. "Cancelled" means its already been sold.

http://www.lme.co.uk/dataprices_daily_metal.asp

basically LME Zinc supplies have been increasing in recent weeks ive noticed its 172450 tonnes atm

thx

MS

michael_selway said:

Nizar you have to look at "Live Warrants" thats why. "Cancelled" means its already been sold.

http://www.lme.co.uk/dataprices_daily_metal.asp

basically LME Zinc supplies have been increasing in recent weeks ive noticed its 172450 tonnes atm

thx

MS

Click to expand...

More Zinc prices and inventory levels here, plus other metals, Zn seems to be ranging below about 1.50/lb atm: http://www.kitcometals.com/

RichKid said:

More Zinc prices and inventory levels here, plus other metals, Zn seems to be ranging below about 1.50/lb atm: http://www.kitcometals.com/

Click to expand...

Hi thx yeah i knwo about the kitco site

London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks(May 02)
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from previous day
Aluminum 740,225 -1400
Copper 117,550 -175
Nickel 26,928 -66
Lead 99,600 -200
Zinc 258,650 -2050

That 258650 can be quite misleading because 86200 is already 'sold" ("cancelled"). So you should also follow the change in "live warrants" daily which may give a better picture

http://www.lme.co.uk/dataprices_daily_metal.asp

thx

MS

http://www.lme.co.uk/dataprices_daily_metal.asp

03/05/06 = 173425 tonnes
02/05/06 = 172450 tonnes

Hi rederob, do u know where the increase in Zinc Live Warrant is coming from? is it new orleans for the above?

thx

MS

MS
2,125 re-warranted at New Orleans.
A total 70,475t of LME-registered metal at this US port were damaged by the hurricanes that ravaged the city last year. All of it was cancelled, the LME saying it needed to be cleaned before re-warranting. Deliveries into warehouse here so far this year have totalled 45,300t, suggesting this process will continue for a while yet.

nice to see zinc continue its uptrend... was in 1.45-1.50 for the last few weeks

now 1.53, up 3%.... lets see if it stays that way when NY opens..

Almost @ $4,000t = $1.80

yogi-in-oz said:

Hi folks,

As requested Michael, we started on a long analysis
on zinc prices, but not having any recent historical
data, it proved too complex .....

..... suffice to say, we expect more of the same from
zinc prices, until about the December 2007 solstice
18-24122007.

-----

For most traders, it is more PRACTICAL to analyze the
individual zinc stocks. While the zinc price may be
the fundamental driver for the industry as a whole,
not all those stocks will participate at the same time,
due to a wide variation in their own natural cycles.

-----

In fact, we can line up all the zinc stocks mentioned in
this thread, around the 360 degree dial and come up
with a likely sequence, WHEN they will react to the
same cycle one-by-one, as each aspect progresses,
around the dial.

For example, right now, we can see that JML should be
triggered on 12-13072006, with ZFX a few days later,
on 17072006 .....

Then, for the same cycle, the order goes AIM, INL, KZL,
TZN, CBH and UCL, all on different dates .....

-----

..... and on ZFX ..... so, you think it's high now???

Come back in December 2006 for another look,
but more importantly will be the run up into
December 2007 ..... should be HUGE !~!

If we get time on this end, this could be a good
project ..... "tag-the-zinc-stock" ..... lol

have a great weekend all

yogi

Click to expand...

Hi when u say "December 2007 solstice 18-24122007" do u mean?

- Huge crash of ZFX
- Huge crash for zinc stocks
- Huge crash for All Ords
- Huge crash for all world markets esp DOW?

Can you pleasee see if the "stars' have changed since?

thx

MS

When are we going to see zinc get to critical mass?LME supplies are drying up and mining supply won't catch up with demand till at least 2008.

Would anyone care to speculate on what will happen to the price of zinc when LME supplies approach zero?

Unlike copper,zinc cannot be substituted with a cheaper alternative and users will pay any price because it comprises only a small percentage of the finished product.

specman said:

Unlike copper,zinc cannot be substituted with a cheaper alternative and users will pay any price because it comprises only a small percentage of the finished product.

Click to expand...

Agree

in november supplies were 450ktonnes
now they are at 250ktonnes

so ~200k per 6 months is the usage rate

in around 6 months, LME supplies very close to zero and remember may be much sooner if more cyclones hit the actual storage warehouses which are in New Orleans

I still think by the end of the year zinc spot price will be >$2
We are nowhere near the peak...

nizar said:

Agree

in november supplies were 450ktonnes
now they are at 250ktonnes

so ~200k per 6 months is the usage rate

in around 6 months, LME supplies very close to zero and remember may be much sooner if more cyclones hit the actual storage warehouses which are in New Orleans

I still think by the end of the year zinc spot price will be >$2
We are nowhere near the peak...

Click to expand...

yeah no where near peak imo, but also important to note that as zinc prises move higher demand may slow, so LME Supplies may drop slower. Also Live Warrants (as cancelled warrants implies sold already) still stands at 172k atm and for a while now, so it may hit a snag there?

http://www.lme.co.uk/dataprices_daily_metal.asp

Btw for Copper...

After ending 2005 with an essentially balanced market (small deficit of 64,000 t), the copper market is expected to show a modest surplus in 2006 of about 240,000 t. According to ICSG estimates, a growth in usage will result in a production surplus in 2007 of only about 55,000 t.

Click to expand...

http://www.icsg.org/News/Press_Release/PressReleaseStatsApr06.pdf

Zinc - Outlook for 2006

8. Global usage of refined zinc metal is forecast to increase by 4.8% to 11.19 million tonnes in 2006. Growth will be strongest in Asia where demand is forecast to rise by 7.3% in China, 9.1% in India, 4.5% in Japan and 4.4% in the Republic of Korea. Demand in the United States is expected to recover by 11.4% after falling steeply in 2005. In Europe, increases in Finland, Germany, Poland, the Russian Federation and Spain will be partially balanced by falls in Belgium, France and Italy resulting in an overall rise of 1.4%.

9. It is anticipated that global zinc mine output will increase by 4.5% to 10.42 million tonnes. Production in Australia is forecast to rise by 8.9% and in India by 10%. European output will benefit from increases in Greece, Ireland, the Russian Federation and Sweden and is expected to rise by 8%.

10. A further 4.3% increase in world refined zinc metal production to 10.71 million tonnes in 2006 will be influenced primarily by rises of 8.6% in China and 44% in India. Increases are also forecast in Australia, Belgium, Canada, Kazakhstan, the Republic of Korea and the Netherlands.

11. Chinese net imports of zinc metal are forecast to rise to 285,000 tonnes. It is expected that most of this material will continue to be sourced in Kazakhstan.

12. Overall, after also having taken into consideration release from the United States Defense National Stockpile, the Group continues to anticipate a substantial deficit in the Western World refined zinc market. Current forecasts indicate a shortfall of 437,000 tonnes

Click to expand...

http://www.ilzsg.org/archives.asp?go=getarchive&num=132
http://www.insg.org/insg.htm



Another interesting thing, during the last basemetal correction, zinc went down from 1.08 to 0.89 so

(0.89/1.08)*1.71 = 1.40 = New level of support?

If it is, it appears that its the same sellers selling? So the majority of fundies are still holding?

thx

MS

Would the New Orleans damaged zinc being gradually cleaned and put back onto live warrants explain why it has remained static at 172k?

When that is depleted I would expect supplies on the live warrants to decline as well or is that flawed logic?

specman said:

Would the New Orleans damaged zinc being gradually cleaned and put back onto live warrants explain why it has remained static at 172k?

When that is depleted I would expect supplies on the live warrants to decline as well or is that flawed logic?

Click to expand...

Thats what i would presume as well, but cant be for certain. However i remember "rederob' saying that there was about 40k to be added back to "live warrants" after being cleaned

But on a day to day basis, u cant really say unless u have access like rederob to the official LME site, which gives u breakdowns of the "ins", "outs", "cancelled" and from which location. He might be able to give us an update

thx

MS

Zinc Warehouse Stocks 19 May 2006
Close In Out +/- On Warrant Cancelled
Antwerp 0 0 0 0 0 0
Avonmouth 0 0 0 0 0 0
Baltimore 275 0 50 -50 0 275
Barcelona 175 0 0 0 175 0
Bilbao 600 0 0 0 600 0
Bremen 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chicago 0 0 0 0 0 0
Detroit 550 0 25 -25 0 550
Dubai 50 0 0 0 0 50
Genoa 3750 0 25 -25 1575 2175
Gothenburg 0 0 0 0 0 0
Hamburg 0 0 0 0 0 0
Helsingborg 0 0 0 0 0 0
Hull 0 0 0 0 0 0
Johor 16675 0 0 0 16550 125
Leghorn 15425 0 175 -175 14375 1050
Liverpool 1675 0 50 -50 1000 675
Long Beach 0 0 0 0 0 0
Los Angeles 0 0 0 0 0 0
Newcastle 0 0 0 0 0 0
New Orleans 175600 100 925 -825 113425 62175
Rotterdam 75 0 25 -25 0 75
Singapore 13050 0 200 -200 12175 875
St Louis 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sunderland 7200 0 50 -50 7125 75
Trieste 9125 0 75 -75 3225 5900
Vlissingen 2725 0 0 0 2600 125

Total 246950 100 1600 -1500 172825 74125