Zinc the metal for 2006

[BREND]

Hi Bend,

Well Zinc's not reversing ATM ,spot prices trending down again today.

Yes, u are right, seems like my Zinifex is going to drop again tomorrow.

Bought into Rio Tinto in the morning before earnings announcement, hope that price will fly tomorrow.

 

[Kauri]

Yes, u are right, seems like my Zinifex is going to drop again tomorrow.

Yes pleeeeese...

 

[toothfairy]

Hi Bend,

Well Zinc's not reversing ATM ,spot prices trending down again today.

Check the zinifex website, the POZ has not dropped overnight. Only Kitco said it has! Who to believe?

 

[Kauri]

Check the zinifex website, the POZ has not dropped overnight. Only Kitco said it has! Who to believe?

Brend is probably best qualified to answer this.. As far as i understand the ZFX site price is based on the LME price whereas the Kitco site gives 24 hour spot rates, so I guess the timing of the LME updating is what gives the variation between their prices and the spot which is finalised at end of each day.... not 100% on this but that's how I think it goes..

LME...The cash contract is updated only twice daily and does not fluctuate during trading hours because it is not actively traded. Only the future months are actively traded and the 3 month contracts receive the highest volume

 

[BREND]

Check the zinifex website, the POZ has not dropped overnight. Only Kitco said it has! Who to believe?

Price of Zinc did drop last night. And inventory level also rise, so looks like that recovery of zinc might take longer than expected.

 

[toothfairy]

Brend is probably best qualified to answer this.. As far as i understand the ZFX site price is based on the LME price whereas the Kitco site gives 24 hour spot rates, so I guess the timing of the LME updating is what gives the variation between their prices and the spot which is finalised at end of each day.... not 100% on this but that's how I think it goes..

The 24 spot price charts of Kitco do have periods of inactivities daily. When LME is closed, where else do they trade, are they in significant amounts to worry about. If not, Kitco's prices may not be that definitive. LME seems to be more official. That said, I do find that after a couple of days, they do catch up with each other, there is no doubt that POZ is on a down trend, plus or minor a day or so. Please comment.

 

[Kauri]

The 24 spot price charts of Kitco do have periods of inactivities daily. When LME is closed, where else do they trade, are they in significant amounts to worry about. If not, Kitco's prices may not be that definitive. LME seems to be more official. That said, I do find that after a couple of days, they do catch up with each other, there is no doubt that POZ is on a down trend, plus or minor a day or so. Please comment.

I'm out of my depth here but I think that the Kitco charts get most of their movement during NY time...Nymex trading hours...

 

[Kauri]

Zinc Heads for Fifth Week of Declines as Stockpiles Increase

By Brett Foley

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Zinc headed for a fifth straight week of declines as growing stockpiles and exports from China added to speculation the metal will have a surplus this year.

China, the world's biggest producer and user of zinc, was a net exporter of the refined metal in 2006 for the first time in three years, Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. said on Jan. 26. Zinc inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange have increased 11.1 percent this year.

``Zinc stockpiles have risen this year and Chinese exports have served to dampen the appetite for the once-rising star,'' Michael Skinner, an London-based analyst at Standard Bank Plc said in a report.

Zinc for delivery in three months on the LME fell $50, or 1.5 percent, to $3,340 a metric ton as of 9:15 a.m. local time. Shares have fallen 21 percent this year. LME-monitored inventories dropped 175 tons to 98,350 tons, the exchange said in a daily report.

Among other LME-traded metals copper gained $5 to $5,605 a ton. Aluminum slipped $28 to $2,725, nickel rose $50 to $36,900 and lead advanced $20 to $1,685. Tin was unchanged.

Last Updated: February 2, 2007 04:23 EST

 

[toothfairy]

This should be on the ZFX thread but I post it here anyway as it seems to have more actions here.
I know stock prices are beyond reasoning OR am I being too analytical (scientific may be)? POZ is around $15.50 now and if you look back you will see the last time when it was the same price was around 6/10/06. Also note that ZFX share price was around $12.20 (I think before ex dividends) then.
Something must have happened to Zinifex in the last 4 months for it to be trading (still) at around $16.80 now.
Are there anything that I have missed or is it grossly over priced. I have down loaded (sold) 80% of my ZFX shares am hope I am doing the right thing.

 

[BREND]

This should be on the ZFX thread but I post it here anyway as it seems to have more actions here.
I know stock prices are beyond reasoning OR am I being too analytical (scientific may be)? POZ is around $15.50 now and if you look back you will see the last time when it was the same price was around 6/10/06. Also note that ZFX share price was around $12.20 (I think before ex dividends) then.
Something must have happened to Zinifex in the last 4 months for it to be trading (still) at around $16.80 now.
Are there anything that I have missed or is it grossly over priced. I have down loaded (sold) 80% of my ZFX shares am hope I am doing the right thing.

Fall in metal prices does not mean that miners stocks will fall. Zinc price falls, but the biggest zinc miner in the world - Teck Cominco is still rising.
Copper has been falling, but Southern Copper share price has been rising to new high, and Phelps Dodges is still strong.

Fyi, demand of zinc in China is rising, and zinc price in China has risen. Fall in zinc price at LME, is due to funds' play. Funds have been selling zinc call options lately.

 

[eMark]

Zinc February 02,07:59
Bid/Ask 1.4711 - 1.4801
Change -0.0958 -6.11%
Low/High 1.4711 - 1.5777

 

[toothfairy]

Fall in metal prices does not mean that miners stocks will fall. Zinc price falls, but the biggest zinc miner in the world - Teck Cominco is still rising.
Copper has been falling, but Southern Copper share price has been rising to new high, and Phelps Dodges is still strong.

Fyi, demand of zinc in China is rising, and zinc price in China has risen. Fall in zinc price at LME, is due to funds' play. Funds have been selling zinc call options lately.

Well, I don't know those companies that you mentioned in detail but only in names. Are they comparable to ZFX in the sense of :
a) pure play in Zn
b) short live mine (relatively)
c) inexperience in exploration
What I meant is if ZFX sp does not relate intimately with POZ, what other factors are there? Particularly what so different are these factors now compare to 4 months ago?

P.S. POZ is not looking good as I am typing, I am also watching Wagner's Gotterdammerung (downfall of the gods) on DVD, very exciting.

 

[eMark]

Zinc February 02,08:35
Bid/Ask 1.4507 - 1.4597
Change -0.1162 -7.42%
Low/High 1.4507 - 1.5777

This is like watching a car crash. Looks like I picked the wrong time to BUY ZFX (last Friday, ouch!)

 

[drmb]

Getting worse by the hour - can't watch anymore, what's hapening? From Kitco:
Zinc February 02,08:40
Bid/Ask 1.4507 - 1.4643
Change -0.1162 -7.42%
Low/High 1.4461 - 1.5777

 

[Kauri]

Getting serious now....

 

[bvbfan]

Rumours of a hedge fund blow up around again, this time a base metals fund.

If it's true, which by the price action in metals I'm starting to believe, this may the sign the bulls need to re enter.

JMHO though

 

[wayneL]

Fall in metal prices does not mean that miners stocks will fall. Zinc price falls, but the biggest zinc miner in the world - Teck Cominco is still rising.
Copper has been falling, but Southern Copper share price has been rising to new high, and Phelps Dodges is still strong.

Fyi, demand of zinc in China is rising, and zinc price in China has risen. Fall in zinc price at LME, is due to funds' play. Funds have been selling zinc call options lately.

Teck Cominco gapped down along with the rest of the sector this (NY) AM

 

[Kauri]

Red Kite, Hit by Commodities, Tries to Delay Redemptions
By Gregory Zuckerman and Alistair Barr
2 Feb 11:00
There is more proof of how volatile it can get for hedge funds that focus on commodity markets.

Red Kite Management Ltd.'s $1 billion metals-trading hedge fund, a highflier that racked up gains last year, has suffered losses so far in 2007. Now Red Kite is asking its investors to give it more notice before they withdraw from the fund.

 

[drmb]

Rumours of a hedge fund blow up around again, this time a base metals fund.

If it's true, which by the price action in metals I'm starting to believe, this may the sign the bulls need to re enter.

JMHO though

Grim reading - Zinc seems to have fallen 12.5% by my calculation, last trading February 02,14:27 Bid/Ask 1.3962 - 1.4053

See

http://za.today.reuters.com/news/ne...BS-MARKETS-METALS-20070202.XML&archived=False

Metals dive on report of fund losses
Fri Feb 2, 2007 5:56 PM GMT
Printer Friendly

LONDON (Reuters) - Base metals prices fell sharply on
the London Metal Exchange on Friday on a report of heavy losses
at a hedge fund and in the absence of Chinese buyers, dealers
said.
"The market is collapsing," a European trader said.
Three-months zinc fell by nearly 9 percent at one
stage, copper was down by over 6 percent and aluminium dropped by some 3 percent in a general
sell-off.
Traders said the selling was mostly on behalf of funds,
triggered by a report of heavy losses at a hedge fund that
specialises in metals trading.
Once prices hit specific chart levels the fall for most
metals accelerated.
"Fund liquidation...a lot of stops triggered -- a lot of the
stuff on the back of the Red Kite news," the trader said.
Hedge fund Red Kite, which posted strong gains in 2006, has
suffered a roughly 20 percent loss in the first days of January
and is now trying to stall investors who want to pull money out,
The Wall Street Journal reported.

 

[eMark]

I know this is the Zinc thread. But what are posters thoughts for ZFX & KZL come Monday? Considering the rest of the market appears stable, and after after such a big fall in Zinc?