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Zinc the metal for 2006

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According to China's Nonferrous Metal Trade report from July to Nov, here are the % increase in export of zinc on a yoy basis:

July +17%
Aug +169%
Sept +148%
Oct 616%
Nov 741%

Notice the huge increase in export of zinc from China.
If China is exporting huge amount of zinc, why do people still think demand for zinc is still high?
 
BREND said:
According to China's Nonferrous Metal Trade report from July to Nov, here are the % increase in export of zinc on a yoy basis:

July +17%
Aug +169%
Sept +148%
Oct 616%
Nov 741%

Notice the huge increase in export of zinc from China.
If China is exporting huge amount of zinc, why do people still think demand for zinc is still high?
Click to expand...

Wow, that's pretty interesting, but is that net exports or gross exports? Do you have a link to the source?
 
rwkni1 said:
Wow, that's pretty interesting, but is that net exports or gross exports? Do you have a link to the source?
Click to expand...

Gross export. I found the information from Bloomberg, so no link to the source.
 
Cheers. Clearly some ramp up in production here, but i'm pretty sure China is still a net importer of zinc. I don't think Chinese consumption of zinc will just drop off a wall, especially given their production of galvanized steel is still increasing. I'd be pretty confident Chinese buyers will return to the market quite soon, and LME inventories in the Singapore warehouse will resume their downward trend. The situation in zinc right now almost smells similar to copper, we know the Chinese demand should be there but it seems to have gone on holiday - maybe they are drawing down from internal stockpiles? Either way, there is now no significant new mine production due out in 2007, with delays to San Christobel and Herald Resources' project in Indonesia. The market has to remain tight. Also, i noticed this morning on Bloomberg something about the Bolivian government looking to increase mining taxes six fold. I don't know exactly what impact that will have on San Christobel, but i can't imagine it will help speed up progress.
 
rwkni1 said:
Cheers. Clearly some ramp up in production here, but i'm pretty sure China is still a net importer of zinc. I don't think Chinese consumption of zinc will just drop off a wall, especially given their production of galvanized steel is still increasing. I'd be pretty confident Chinese buyers will return to the market quite soon, and LME inventories in the Singapore warehouse will resume their downward trend. The situation in zinc right now almost smells similar to copper, we know the Chinese demand should be there but it seems to have gone on holiday - maybe they are drawing down from internal stockpiles? Either way, there is now no significant new mine production due out in 2007, with delays to San Christobel and Herald Resources' project in Indonesia. The market has to remain tight. Also, i noticed this morning on Bloomberg something about the Bolivian government looking to increase mining taxes six fold. I don't know exactly what impact that will have on San Christobel, but i can't imagine it will help speed up progress.
Click to expand...

I hope you are right, because I want to buy Zinifex or Teck Cominco.
Yesterday JP Morgan and BNP Paribas said they are bullish on zinc.
 
Today 2475 mt of Zinc is delivered into Spore warehouse. Likely the source comes from China. If China does not need Zinc, why should we be bullish on this metal??
 
Yup....been there and done this made a few $$$K on zinc....time to find another hyper play....are tech or pharmas back in the swing of things?....don't tell me the flamin' dot coms are back in favour gawd...dussunt history repeat itself.....be prepared fot the fallout......and good luck to the gamblers....hehe.....:)
 
pacer said:
Yup....been there and done this made a few $$$K on zinc....time to find another hyper play,,,are tech or pharmas back in the swing of things?....don't tell me the flamin' dot coms are back in favour gawd...dussunt history repeat itself.....be prpared fot the fallout......and good luck to the gamblers....hehe,,,,,,:)
Click to expand...
I am thinking biotech will be the other commodity superstar. I am personally backing RBY.
 
Another confusing as hell day of Zn prices from different sources:

Kitco metal : +5% from about $1.66 to $1.74 / lb.

Basemetals news column : say Zn jumps 6.4% or $225 to $3740, yet the headling says $3670.5 which is $28.5 down from yesterday.

Zinifex site and Metalprices sites both said down $28.5 to $3670.5.

ZFX went up at open as if POZ was up.

Does anyone know what's going on?
 
I agree toothfairy, very confusing!

The latest price (as far as I can tell is):

Cash $3,819/MT
3MTH $3,780/MT

This is obtained by looking at the top right corner of the metalprices web page for zinc. You will see it says most recent LME zinc.
 
From Bloomberg - zinc gained 11c/lb to $1.73/lb. Multiply by 2204.6 to get $/t. Bargain hunters jumping on board, although inventories did rise 200t to 94kt.
 
rwkni1 said:
From Bloomberg - zinc gained 11c/lb to $1.73/lb. Multiply by 2204.6 to get $/t. Bargain hunters jumping on board, although inventories did rise 200t to 94kt.
Click to expand...

Yes zinc price has recovered yesterday, but I would not want to put my money in zinc now. I will wait unless the inventory had stopped to increase. Recent rise in inventory is due to delivery from China merchants. If China does not need zinc, why should we be optimistics about this metal?

http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/
 
China certainly does need zinc given the massive quantities of galvanized steel it is producing, and Chinese zinc consumption is expected to grow by 4.6% in 2007 according to the international zinc and lead study group. What you're seeing here is most likely a seasonal drop off in demand, combined with some price elasticity. Now that prices have come off expect to start seeing cancellations at LME warehouses again. Zinifex have noted at their last couple of results that zinc demand, particularly for diecast alloys, is particularly price sensitive. i.e. orders pick up strongly in weeks when there has been a pull back in prices. Having said this, i certainly wouldn't rule out some pretty considerable price volatility over the next few weeks...
 
rwkni1 said:
China certainly does need zinc given the massive quantities of galvanized steel it is producing, and Chinese zinc consumption is expected to grow by 4.6% in 2007 according to the international zinc and lead study group. What you're seeing here is most likely a seasonal drop off in demand, combined with some price elasticity. Now that prices have come off expect to start seeing cancellations at LME warehouses again. Zinifex have noted at their last couple of results that zinc demand, particularly for diecast alloys, is particularly price sensitive. i.e. orders pick up strongly in weeks when there has been a pull back in prices. Having said this, i certainly wouldn't rule out some pretty considerable price volatility over the next few weeks...
Click to expand...

Many people had commented that delivery from China is just temporary, just a seasonal effect. Do you know that China has started to deliver huge amount of zinc since July 06? I will not rule out that the delivery will stop some day, I will wait for that day first. So far inventory is still rising almost on a daily basis.
 
China just dumping to get the price down whilst on the other side they buy at cheaper prices.

Its all dodgy manipulation.
 
Hate to sound sceptical, but lately there are a lot of "China Zinc Experts" here saying all sorts of DESTOCKING, DUMPING & MANIPULATING of zinc stock into Singapore etc.
How would you guys know what exactly China is doing? Do they post their movements somewhere that everyone can check? Or does the Big Brother has spied it out and post it somewhere? Is it reliable info or like some media who always want to tell you the reverse? Does most of the zinc stock in LME now has "Make in China" stamped on it? Or how do you know that they are not from Zinifex?
Or is it merely your personal opinion / guess? May be someone can quote or refer us to some source so we can make some judgement.
Thanks.
 
toothfairy said:
Hate to sound sceptical, but lately there are a lot of "China Zinc Experts" here saying all sorts of DESTOCKING, DUMPING & MANIPULATING of zinc stock into Singapore etc.
How would you guys know what exactly China is doing? Do they post their movements somewhere that everyone can check? Or does the Big Brother has spied it out and post it somewhere? Is it reliable info or like some media who always want to tell you the reverse? Does most of the zinc stock in LME now has "Make in China" stamped on it? Or how do you know that they are not from Zinifex?
Or is it merely your personal opinion / guess? May be someone can quote or refer us to some source so we can make some judgement.
Thanks.
Click to expand...

Yes, I have heard of this from my China clients.
 

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