Your top 3 holdings and why you hold them

[jbocker]

Appreciate the humour gents, but can we have the real reasons now please?!

The real reason behind the anologies...
WPL: Still my old girl , she was little down last week, looking a little better, but must diversify.. hafta look at her new bloke, the last little fella has shot through...
Woodside dropped some $ last week but improved some $, has always been a consistent dividend payer. New bloke is the new CEO and the little fella was ex CEO Volte. Hoping they diversify with the Browse FID next year. I have held a little bundle of these for ages.

KSC: Coming from a trucker family this one loves going on long drives, and now that she is driving in the west, I will love to watch her moving her figure up the road. I am gonna hitch a ride I hope she brings home lots of goodies.
Transport business. Have last year bought into WA operations and now trucking to the NW. I would be keen to see her SP rise, post the floods cyclones in the East (thinking they will be needed to transport the materials for repairs). I bought in hoping for a long term hold and consistent divies.

COU: One of those cute girls in the accounts dept, nice and neatly dressed, she looked at me over those glasses and gave me a wink, I asked her out to coffee. She said she will pay!
Finance firm, has good consistent divies 4 times a year, and has caught my eye then I bought in at 90c (yesterday), moments later they announced a 4c divi (she is buying my coffee!)

My references to EDE - looked good, but risky, put some $ in and there is no return (slumped). keeping in touch with the stock though.
CFU made a factory in Germany (anaology kitchen) made some and have orders for some Bluegen units (hors d' oeuvres), but I have been waiting a while to get the big orders happening (the roast).

Hope that helps explain the real reasons, Joe.
cheers

 

[So_Cynical]

(28th-October-2010) I've had some line up changes since my last post in this thread...Top 3 by portfolio weight.

• 10.4% HDF - Hastings diversified fund = 14%+ dividend return, Gas exposure (open trade)
• 7.6% APN - News & Media = diverse, safe revenue streams, economic cycle exposure (open trade)
• 7.5% MRE - Minara = top 10 nickel miner, economic cycle, china etc (open trade)

CTN - Microcap and BPT - Beach energy close behind...all open trades and all over weigh due to that, except HDF because im loving the quarterly dividends and the yield.

(3rd-April-2011) A few line up changes for me in the last 6 months...interesting that the 3 above trades are all still open with no change.

Top 3 by weight now are

• 10.1% CPU - Computershare = Global growth cycle & financial tech services (open trade)
• 9.1% HDF - Hastings fund = 13%+ dividend return, Gas exposure (open trade)
• 8.1% TSI - Transfield fund = 13%+ dividend return, overweight due to current T/O offer (open trade)

ABC - Adelaide Brighton and MRE - Minara not far behind in 4th and 5th spot...all open trades which gives them greater weight in my portfolio, CPU over weight because i have 2 small parcels of free carry shares from 2008 and 2009.

Current top 4 at today's close.

• CPU - Computershare 10.13%
• HDF - Hastings Diversified Fund 9.95%
• ABC - Adelaide Brighton Cement 7.36%
• PTM - Platinum Asset Management 7.25%

Why they are my top 4 is predominantly because the market has been falling and ive taken average downs into all except HDF because it hasn't fallen and is still an open position with open profit of around 80%

 

[tech/a]

(1) Cash
(2) Cash
(3) Cash.

So I can short this market.
Short SPI and tonight if signalled FTSE and DAX.

Not buying anything LONG
There will be plenty of time to pick up bargains---when they are bargains.
Thats when NOBODY wants to buy anything!

That time will come.

Hasn't been the worse decision in life.

 

[nulla nulla]

Map (Macquarie Airport)
Purchase Date: 03 December 2002
Purchase Price: $0.86
Dividends per share since purchase: $1.64
Current Dividend: $0.21
Yield on Current share price $2.94: 7.14%
Yield on original share price $0.86: 24.42%
Capital Gain on original share price: $2.08
Comments: No point in selling it. It doesn't owe us anything and continues to contribute a regular income stream through dividends.

WBC (Westpac)
Purchase Date: 01 July 2001
Purchase Price: $13.20
Dividends pershare since purchase: $8.70 (fully franked)
Current Dividend: $1.25
Yield on Current share price $21.75: 5.75%
Yield on original share price $13.20: 9.47%
Capital Gain on original share price: $8.55
Comments: No point in selling it. It doesn't owe us anything and continues to contribute a regular income stream through dividends.

These are the only two shares in the portfolio considered as "holdings". The rest are short term investments where the profits are taken, locked in and re-invested. In the present market invironment there is no point in buying shares for any long term goals (years). Lock in any profits on the price rises and re-enter on the price falls.

Not a lot has changed in the last year in respect of "Holders" except the dividends received have increased; the price yield rates have gone down on Map where the accrued capital gain has increased; and the price yield rates on wbc have improved while the accrued capital gain has decreased with the current price dip.

No doubt both will change today and in the weeks ahead.

 

[RandR]

My 3 largest holdings arnt terribly imaginitive ... but I feel they do the job. 3 great companies, everyone is familiar with them so I dont need to say too much.

BHP - Exposure to oil ? check, Exposure to gas ? check, Exposure to Iron ? check, Exposure to coal ? check, Exposure to copper ? check. Exposure to Uranium ? check. I know there is some 'risky' exposure to china with the Iron Ore, but seriously ... I dont know how people can look past the big fella. Even just as a 'hedge' for your portfolio against energy and hard commodities.

WOW - An absolute rock. Is there a better defensive stock on the ASX ?

QBE - Has been stagnating of late due to the macro financial problems of the last few years, natural disasters at the start of this year around the world havnt helped. But thats insurance imo, when the better times come a knocking this business will excel. A terrificly profitable business. I like insurance companies, and this is the best. (in australia)

(at some point in the near future, CSL could be one of my 3 largest holdings)

 

[MrMomentum]

Hi RandR,

Do you “buy and hold” these stocks or do you trade "in and out" of them as well?

 

[LifeChoices]

NAV
NAVOB

Bought NAV at 0.027 in mid July when the company was going down quick. Sold 70% of my stake at 0.03 a few days later. Decided to take up the 7 for 2 share offer for 0.02 with free options (NAVOB). Sure glad I did. I'm loving this stock 'cause it keeps me guessing what it's going to do next. The stock has been really bad news for lots of people - but only good for me.

AYN
Bought in early August with the hope that silver was going to go for a run - and in the last couple of days it has. Go AYN

These stocks have seen me survive August almost unscathed - in fact I think I may be in profit after today.

 

[tinhat]

At this moment, holding stocks:

MML - one of the lowest cost gold producers around means that it should still be producing at a profit when other miners have moth balled.

CBA - grossed up yield for the SMSF.

BHP - Marius Kloppers understands that, in commodity markets, at the end of the day, price equals marginal cost. BHP understands that its capital expansion investments must be aimed at minimising marginal cost of production. The Olympic dam project is just awesome.

All the above have been buy and hold in my portfolio. But, given recent volatility, I'm not sure I will choose a simple buy and hold strategy for them in the future.

RIO has been my best performer for trading into and out of over market cycles.

 

[RandR]

Hi RandR,

Do you “buy and hold” these stocks or do you trade "in and out" of them as well?

Was originally "buy and hold" as I was new to the stockmarket when I picked these up. However, I have been sort of inspired by So Cynicals method of building free carry positions with profits, so I have started the process of moving "in and out" to gradually build some free carry.

 

[Julia]

All the above have been buy and hold in my portfolio. But, given recent volatility, I'm not sure I will choose a simple buy and hold strategy for them in the future.

Do you mean you'll likely trade them in future ?

 

[danbradster]

OAK - Uncertain financial facility and management, but a strong company for a great price. Meeting all covenants except the bank's request to do a capital raising.
AOH - Became very undervalued in the Japanese crisis, so I quadrupled my holding. Also has big potential over 1-3 years.
MRE - Fair profit and dividends, but very leveraged to Nickel price and AUD/USD. The AUD/USD is moving in the wrong direction for MRE.

OAK - Taken over.
AOH - Trading really cheap for a good company, but I have enough already.
MRE - Taken over.

I sure can pick them.

My new highest holdings are -

RFG - Cheap, good franked yield, grew even through the QLD cyclone and flood. They are the ones doing the acquisitions with their high cash reserves and inflows.
AOH - Cheap, lots of big news due by June 2012.
CUP - Cheap, good franked yield, hopefully a safe yield without any takeover on the cards.
III - Big news due soon, strong tungsten price, management are putting money into the company rather than taking it out...

 

[tinhat]

Do you mean you'll likely trade them in future ?

Julia, I haven't had a trailing stop loss on those three holdings. I have on most others, RIO for example. In this bear market, as an example, CBA has cycled from $54 (I'm using the ex-div high of 18/02/11 because I would have held it for the franking credits) down to below $46. I would have placed a stop loss at $49.53 and I would have missed out on $1.88 dividend plus franking credits since then. Taking that stop-loss price of $49.53 I would have missed out on an effective yield of ~5% for six months. So, hmm, in the case of a defensive such as CBA, it probably still is a case of hold for yield even in this volatile market. With franking credits the yield justifies the price risk.

MML, at it's peak, my stop-loss would have been at $7.45 so I wouldn't be ahead there either.

BHP - my stop loss would have been at $42.20 - so I would be ahead there.

Having said all that, when the all ords broke below 4500 I knew I should have sold, but I froze. Then again the all ords got back to 4371 a week ago (which is, for practical reasons where I would have been able to hop off once the market broke below 4500) and although I was keeping one eye on the market and did sell down some things, I guess I've been too busy with work, family, visitors from overseas (ie, life) to sit and watch the market in real time. Usually I just look at the charts on a weekly basis. Lately its mainly been daily.

I'm going to sit down and review the whole stop-loss issue when I get back from some holidays. I'm going to review strategies and back test along the lines of what I went through for CBA above. The truth is, with stop-losses, I usually end up getting shaken out of a position only to see the share price go back up in the short term. Yet, every stop loss that has been executed has, in hindsight worked out, with the exception of Equinix, which got taken over just after I got shaken out by some angry algo-trading machines no doubt.

 

[Knobby22]

MOC Mortgage Choice - Huge dividend and growth. What more does anyone want!

 

[Julia]

Tinhat, many thanks for comprehensive response. I get exactly what you're saying here.

I'm being uncharacteristically indecisive at present. Stocks like CBA, WBC, look pretty appealing, but the freedom from any stress of being almost totally in cash, the interest from which still well exceeds what i need to live on, is also attractive in this volatility.

If you're so inclined when you come back from holiday, I'd be interested to have an update on what you're doing.
Enjoy the holiday and thanks again for interesting explanation.

 

[RandR]

Tinhat, many thanks for comprehensive response. I get exactly what you're saying here.

I'm being uncharacteristically indecisive at present. Stocks like CBA, WBC, look pretty appealing, but the freedom from any stress of being almost totally in cash, the interest from which still well exceeds what i need to live on, is also attractive in this volatility.

If you're so inclined when you come back from holiday, I'd be interested to have an update on what you're doing.
Enjoy the holiday and thanks again for interesting explanation.

Have you looked at any hybrids for the big 4 julia ?

Your right the banks have looked appealing in the last few weeks, I was extremely tempted to pull the trigger on CBA the other week, (but i thought better of it and stuck to just WOW)

Im reminding myself that I believe the complete lack of growth in residential property prices is curtailing there mortgage growth potential. Which could present even better opportunities to buy a bank at a later date imo, especially if the macro situation continues to get worse overseas at the same time ... could create a perfect storm for the aussie banks, and perhaps a cheaper entry point then is currently presented. just my

 

[grace]

1. ESG
2. BOW (soon to be equal to or more than my ESG holding though)
3. AOE

All coal seam gas stocks that I believe will be subject to takeover. AOE already under activity.

I have held PES, QGC, Sunshine, etc that have already been taken over in this industry over the last couple of years. Once they get taken over, I just put the money in the next likely one to go (in my opinion of course).

Therefore, I'm in those 3 above for growth only, and takeover speculation.

Not sure where I will go to now??? Can't expect a run like this again in any industry I expect.

 

[LifeChoices]

WOW - An absolute rock. Is there a better defensive stock on the ASX ?

Held them at various times since 2004 - when I paid just $13.57 for them. Just bought some again today - I think it's the cheapest price I've paid for them since.

An absolute rock, you reckon. Hahaha - yeah, that rock must be near the bottom of the ocean now. Just wish I had a bit more to throw at it, a couple of weeks and I'll get a dividend.

 

[Chasero]

CSL 25%- huge potential. Nice profits and steady results. Still very green on this one.

WOW 20% - bought in at around $25. Long term keeper I think, I'm still positive Master stores will bring in nice revenue 5-10 years down the track.

CBA 10% - absolutely killing my portfolio. Still bouncing back quite a bit, so I'm in no hurry to pull the kill switch on this one. I still think it'll hit above $50, maybe, in say 5 years LOL.

TLS 10% - solid company.

I pulled the PANIC TRIGGER on:
MQG, BHP, MYR.

 

[Tysonboss1]

CSL 25%- huge potential. Nice profits and steady results. Still very green on this one.

WOW 20% - bought in at around $25. Long term keeper I think, I'm still positive Master stores will bring in nice revenue 5-10 years down the track.

CBA 10% - absolutely killing my portfolio. Still bouncing back quite a bit, so I'm in no hurry to pull the kill switch on this one. I still think it'll hit above $50, maybe, in say 5 years LOL.

TLS 10% - solid company.

I pulled the PANIC TRIGGER on:
MQG, BHP, MYR.

Is TLS more or less solid than Bhp, which you say you panic sold, I would say it is much more solid as it is generating far more cash and has a great expansion project pipeline.

Will the extra revenue and profit brought in by WOW's masters investment be anywhere near the extra revenue generated by BHP's $80B Investment pipline of new projects.

You say the benefit of CSL is it's "Nice Profits", But your paying $16 for every $1 generated per year, where CBA also generates "Nice profits" but you only have to pay $10.30 for each dollar is annual earnings.

I think by getting rid of some of your best companies just because some share price movements have upset you, But keeping the ones that have remained at a relativly high price is a mistake.

Firstly, Buy keeping shares that are already expensive limits the probable future growth

and secondly by locking in a loss on an otherwise good company means you no longer have exposure to the recovery in the shareprice which will come, and your selling it at a low price at a multiple which means the buying is almost certain to get great results while you get medicre returns on the over priced stuff you kept.

 

[Chasero]

Is TLS more or less solid than Bhp, which you say you panic sold, I would say it is much more solid as it is generating far more cash and has a great expansion project pipeline.

Will the extra revenue and profit brought in by WOW's masters investment be anywhere near the extra revenue generated by BHP's $80B Investment pipline of new projects.

You say the benefit of CSL is it's "Nice Profits", But your paying $16 for every $1 generated per year, where CBA also generates "Nice profits" but you only have to pay $10.30 for each dollar is annual earnings.

I think by getting rid of some of your best companies just because some share price movements have upset you, But keeping the ones that have remained at a relativly high price is a mistake.

Firstly, Buy keeping shares that are already expensive limits the probable future growth

and secondly by locking in a loss on an otherwise good company means you no longer have exposure to the recovery in the shareprice which will come, and your selling it at a low price at a multiple which means the buying is almost certain to get great results while you get medicre returns on the over priced stuff you kept.

The thing is I don't price companies the way you do.

I price them the way I think the markets will value them.

If I think BHP is going to fall below $32, then I'm going to sell it at $36 regardless of what the true value of the company is.

Lower exchange rate means CSL will most likely post bigger profits. Being a 'safer' go to share means markets will flock to this share regardless of it's earnings.

Might sound stupid but that's just how I trade.