Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
- Joined
- 2 January 2006
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RIO SUN CBA
Long term wealth makers.
gg
Long term wealth makers.
gg
The thing is I don't price companies the way you do.
I price them the way I think the markets will value them.
If I think BHP is going to fall below $32, then I'm going to sell it at $36 regardless of what the true value of the company is.
Lower exchange rate means CSL will most likely post bigger profits. Being a 'safer' go to share means markets will flock to this share regardless of it's earnings.
Might sound stupid but that's just how I trade.
Map (Macquarie Airport)
Purchase Date: 03 December 2002
Purchase Price: $0.86
Dividends per share since purchase: $1.64
Current Dividend: $0.21
Yield on Current share price $2.94: 7.14%
Yield on original share price $0.86: 24.42%
Capital Gain on original share price: $2.08
Comments: No point in selling it. It doesn't owe us anything and continues to contribute a regular income stream through dividends.
WBC (Westpac)
Purchase Date: 01 July 2001
Purchase Price: $13.20
Dividends pershare since purchase: $8.70 (plus franking)
Current Dividend: $1.25
Yield on Current share price $21.75: 5.75%
Yield on original share price $13.20: 9.47%
Capital Gain on original share price: $8.55
Comments: No point in selling it. It doesn't owe us anything and continues to contribute a regular income stream through dividends.
These are the only two shares in the portfolio considered as "holdings". The rest are short term investments where the profits are taken, locked in and re-invested. In the present market invironment there is no point in buying shares for any long term goals (years). Lock in any profits on the price rises and re-enter on the price falls.
CCP - debt collection with a business model that appears to be growing smoothly. Management are serial underpromisers & over deliverers.
FGE - Large rise in SP over the last 2 years has caused this to be a substantial holding. I think there is growth left, especially with the recent acquisition.
ARP - excellent long term record. Leveraged to the mining boom but not entirely so.
These three business all have low debt, high ROE.
Because until confidence returns I'd rather not negotiate all the volatility.Have to agree, good choice.
Can we ask WHY?
Because until confidence returns I'd rather not negotiate all the volatility.
Interest from my cash deposits is well in excess of what I need to live on, and I like the freedom from anxiety.
I've been in cash since just after the start of the GFC except for a very small holding in RIO which I'm keeping to demonstrate that buy and hold is a stupid non-strategy.
While I like cash holding of some sort, I can't say that I'd approach it the same way (not being critical - each to their own of course).
During the GFC, there were some insanely good bargains that I personally would have jumped at, if I had the knowledge I have now...
An obvious example (although probably not my prime pick) is BHP @ $25. Yes, the world was in a bind at the time, but BHP is one of the larger companies in the world and very stable, worth well beyond that $25. Even if you bought then and held now, you'd be looking at a 40% increase on your initial purchase over 2years... and that's with a buy and hold strategy.
How do you know that's not just hindsight? There are plenty of major blue chips trading well below their GFC lows. Why weren't they bargains back in Mar 09?
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