Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Your mission Jim....

“Yes” should have read “No” apologies kaveman – at least you got what I was trying to say.

Now back to the fun: from the clues I’ve gathered that we need a net credit position, time decay is not a factor in strategy, and stock shouldn’t be used as margin if 188% return is a target.

Assuming IV of 30% & 5.5% interest rate, 30 days to expiry & ignoring dividends:

Stock XYZ - last price $20

Sell $18 Call $2.16
Sell $22 Put $2.07
Buy $19 Call $1.35
Buy $21 Put $1.26

Net Credit $1.62 - Exercise can be covered by both long call & put regardless of share price movement -EXCEPT when price finished between short & long gaps (ie between $18 & $19 for the calls, and $21 & $22 for the puts)

In these cases at the expiry date only the intrinsic values should be req’d to buyback open positions (+1c for the greedy MMs?), being a maximum of $1 this leaves a minimum net credit of 62c at the end of the month minus brokerage and stamp duty. The positions are relatively covered so margin requirements should be reduced (TIMS only calculates the net risk after taking into account all option positions).

money tree or anyone else please feel free to pick apart any obvious flaws, this is the only strategy I could come up with without a net debit to begin with or an exercise risk
 
Hi Mofra ... aaah the quest for the holy grail ... I know it well.

Good effort and your $0.62 holds up but sadly there is a pot hole between Underlying $18.00 and $22.00 ... to the tune of time value differential between sold(+$0.23) and bought(-$0.61) pozzies = -$0.38.

The graph looks like this ...

XYZ.jpg


Cheers ...
 
Cheers rembrant,

Bubble burst but the lesson learnt. Gross error check would reveal I completely missed the $1 difference at time of exercise on either side.

Do'h! :banghead:

Back to the drawing board....
 
Yo Money Tree, I think I've worked it out.

Looking at your website http://www.posigear.8k.com/, it looks like you're already doing what I'm doing.

Sure it returns consistently huge returns every year with no risk, and you only have to do one trade per year.

I've written an e-book on this called "The Secret Of Risk Free Investing" and published it on http://www.moneyforfree.com.au

Let me know if it's the same thing as what you're doing or if it's a different one and we can share each other's tricks. ;)

Martin
 
Shivan said:
Yo Money Tree, I think I've worked it out.
Let me know if it's the same thing as what you're doing or if it's a different one and we can share each other's tricks. ;)

Martin

Shivan,
Please read our code of conduct and posting guidelines, you also need Joe's (the Administrator's) permission before advertising your site. If you want to give people your free ebook just post a direct link here to the book after checking with Joe.
 
money tree said:
Hmmmm. VERY poor form. Ive been teaching people this strategy since March 2003. Pretty low to flog someones idea and market it as your own.

:swear:

I'm guessing this strategy has to do with the self funding instalment warrants strategy on your website?
 
Tree.

I doubt it is what your talking about.

I downloaded the book and its religious based.
It basically drones on about how its OK to be a Christian and be wealthy.
Howe its OK to think wealthy and act wealthy.

I had to have a laugh as it is one of those free books where its OK to have a copy if when you pass it on you dont charge anyone for its contents-----

Right at the end however is a donation sheet that if inclined you can fill out and send off with your donation of course.

Yup there is the secret alright------all in the name of GOD.

Gotta say he's the ULTIMATE CEO and the greatest Silent patner of all time!
Has the worlds greatest product----faith and the largest staff on earth which doesnt cost him a cent.
It costs you nothing for the product but if you choose to commercially market the product can make you a fortune! Just give a % away and thats fine by the Boss.

Everytime a BIBLES sold------Who gets the PROFIT?
 
loakglen said:
I'm guessing this strategy has to do with the self funding instalment warrants strategy on your website?

Not that one.

tech/a said:
$97---seems cheap for a NO RISK stratagy.

How much is yours Tree?

50 strategies for $590. Maybe $97 ea would be better for me :)
 
50 risk free stratagies for $x.

Hell how many do you need I'd have thought 1 would be enough.

How much is one---yeh I know ---$97

What makes them all different or are they just morphs of a basic core methodology?
 
there are so many derivatives that there are literally thousands of combinations when derivatives are combined:

a. warrants (puts or calls)
b. ETOs (puts or calls)
c. LEPOs (long or short)
d. instalment warrants
e. self funding instalment warrants
f. CFDs (long or short)
g. FPOs (long or short)
h. margin loans
i. managed funds

probably the most well known combo is the 'buy-write' or 'covered call' (b + g). But how many people know about the 'reverse buy-write'? (short stock and write puts).

What if instead of buying the FPO we buy a LEPO and write calls against it? (LEPO buy-write).

Why combine derivatives? A derivative by itself is a directional play. Fine if thats what you want, with associated risk. But different derivatives together can create a non-directional position, and sometimes eliminate risk.

Why would anyone want a non-directional position? 95% of people are consumed with capital gains. The rest look at yield or cashflow. With capital growth there is a large risk that you will be wrong, or not right enough to at least cover brokerage.

The remainder of the equation is what interests me. Usually this is dividends, time premium, interest or a combination.

Here is an example:

c + g

LONG FPOs
SHORT LEPO

net risk = zero (any loss or gain on the FPO attracts an equal gain or loss on the LEPO)

remainder = dividends from FPO (LEPOs have no divs), time premium from written LEPO, interest from margin

There are 50 strategies because each investor has their own risk profile, trading capital, tax situation, intelligence, timeframe, spare time and level of knowledge. One strategy does not fit all. Some strategies can only be used once a year. Hence the 50 :)
 
Tree

I'm not understanding.

I thought the discussion was NO RISK stratagies?

Where have these 50 with risk come in?

Why are peoples risk profiles relevant in a no risk situation?
 
Nobody said the 50 strategies were all risk free. Only about 6 of them are. Others are low risk, or risk BELOW that of a normal position.

LEPO = Low Exercise Price Option
FPO = Fully Paid Ordinary
 
From asx:

http://www.asx.com.au/markets/pdf/UnderstandingLEPOs.pdf

"There are several things that LEPOs are not.
They are not the same as buying or selling
shares. Although the exposure with LEPOs is
similar to owning the shares, you don’t receive
dividends directly. The value of the dividend
is factored into the LEPO price."

I certainly wouldn't buy a LEPO that didn't have the premium discounted by the dividend value. I haven't looked up any LEPOs, so is this the case?

Although you do still get the time-decay and the margin interest

MIT
 
money tree said:
Hmmmm. VERY poor form. Ive been teaching people this strategy since March 2003. Pretty low to flog someones idea and market it as your own.

I'm offended that you would say that money tree! First you put up a post asking people to show their strategies that produce risk free profits. Then when somebody steps up and comes up with it you flame them. That sounds like the extremists: There is only one God and if you workship another you will go to hell.

How can you accuse me of stealing your ideas when I have been using the strategy since before March 2003 myself, and have never heard of you or your site until yesterday. Therefore, if I have never bought your book, how could I have stolen your strategies and market them as my own?

:eek:


My strategy shows people how to make an extra $5k per year risk free, plus I include some more free e-books how to pick up a few extra K per year.

It sells for $97 because it's only 2-3 strategies. Yours has 50 strategies so sells for $590.

Basically it's all good and there's more than one way to skin a cat. All these strategies are public knowledge, but they are obscured by thousands of pages of law and all that we can do is educate people.

Shivan
 
mit said:
I certainly wouldn't buy a LEPO that didn't have the premium discounted by the dividend value.

Who said anything about buying a LEPO? Read again, I said WRITE the LEPO. Most likely its the market maker who buys it.


money tree said:
LONG FPOs
SHORT LEPO

net risk = zero (any loss or gain on the FPO attracts an equal gain or loss on the LEPO)

remainder = dividends from FPO (LEPOs have no divs), time premium from written LEPO, interest from margin

Shivan said:
...and have never heard of you or your site until yesterday

thats quite funny since you hung out on my chatroom in 2002/2003.
 
money tree said:
Who said anything about buying a LEPO? Read again, I said WRITE the LEPO. Most likely its the market maker who buys it.

No you didn't read me correctly. If you write the LEPO who is going to buy it if you haven't discounted the dividend. I wouldn't.

Check the November LEPOs for Telstra:

FPO Price $4.59
Option $4.485

That is You can buy telstra at $4.59
You receive $4.485 in premium when you write

Now for any share where the exercise date is NOT after the dividend date the premium is higher than the current share price. The buyer knows he isn't getting a dividend and the premium reflects this.

Dividend is 20c

So if exercised You have paid 4.59 and you receive 4.485 + 0.2 + 0.01
which is 4.695 and the 10.5 cents profit is the time value

TANSTAAFL

Mit
 
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