XAO Technical Analysis

[CanOz]

Re: XAO Analysis

Personally i'm hoping for a selling climax before a nice rally into Christmas for our little index!

Watch those volumes and closes!

Cheers,

 

[Kauri]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just some musings from one who is fundementally challenged. ..
Cisco reports lower earnings going forward due to reduced spending, particularly by Wall St firms.. is the sub-prime now officially spilling over?? Maybe the reports due this week from the big US retailers due this week will shed some more light on this??? Where Wall St leads... we follow??
Cheers
........Kauri

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just some musings from one who is fundementally challenged. ..
Cisco reports lower earnings going forward due to reduced spending, particularly by Wall St firms.. is the sub-prime now officially spilling over?? Maybe the reports due this week from the big US retailers due this week will shed some more light on this??? Where Wall St leads... we follow??
Cheers
........Kauri

Might have to wait for a summary of the reports. Not sure why GM went pear shaped? Was it people no longer being able to update or one off tax or something? When Harvey Normal electrical devision starts going soft, it might be hitting us. The worst case will be when people stop buying beer. Watch the beer division from Fosters. By that stage, it might be the bottom....

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just some musings from one who is fundementally challenged. ..
Cisco reports lower earnings going forward due to reduced spending, particularly by Wall St firms.. is the sub-prime now officially spilling over?? Maybe the reports due this week from the big US retailers due this week will shed some more light on this??? Where Wall St leads... we follow??
Cheers
........Kauri

I heard a great line on Bloomberg last week in an interview with some guy I can't remember. The question was posed "Do you think subprime is contained" He replied "sure, it's contained to planet earth."

Cisco's results were good but the forecast going out was not bullish. The reason for the Cisco's comments go something like this: Given the huge writedowns by many Wall Street firms, staff layoffs, and general belt tightening in the compensation area do you think they will be making big investments in technology next year?

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

Might have to wait for a summary of the reports. Not sure why GM went pear shaped? Was it people no longer being able to update or one off tax or something? When Harvey Normal electrical devision starts going soft, it might be hitting us. The worst case will be when people stop buying beer. Watch the beer division from Fosters. By that stage, it might be the bottom....

GM's huge writedown was the writing off of deferred tax assets. When a company makes a loss (as GM has been doing for years) those losses can be offset against future profits. However there is a time limit on the period to which the tax credits can be applied. GM's move to write off the deferred tax assets sends a signal that they are no longer confident about being able to offset those losses in the near term.

Is it related to subprime? Yes and No. GM was in trouble a long time before subprime reared it's head. They lost -$10.4 billion in 2005 and another- $2.0 billion in 2006.

However one of the reasons that they have changed their outlook is because of the poor performance of their mortgage origination arm GMAC - which of course is subprime related.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

I heard a great line on Bloomberg last week in an interview with some guy I can't remember. The question was posed "Do you think subprime is contained" He replied "sure, it's contained to planet earth."

Cisco's results were good but the forecast going out was not bullish. The reason for the Cisco's comments go something like this: Given the huge writedowns by many Wall Street firms, staff layoffs, and general belt tightening in the compensation area do you think they will be making big investments in technology next year?

Maybe I'm not seeing things too clearly, but there seems to be quite a few good reports out this season, less the financials.

What is Goodle up to?

And, one of ours:

MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--Computershare Ltd. (CPU.AU), the world's largest share registry company, Monday upgraded its earnings guidance following a strong start to the fiscal year.

The Melbourne-based company said it expects earnings per share growth of more than 30% for the year to June 30, 2008.

"This upgrade assumes equity, interest rate and foreign exchange market conditions remain broadly consistent with current levels for the rest of the financial year," Computershare said in a statement.

Computershare said the main factors prompting the upgrade were a strong result for the first four months, up about 40% over last year, driven by higher margins in its core business.

It also cited the revenue growth forecast for the full year in Hong Kong (especially the continued strong growth in initial public offers), Australia and Canada.

Tech seems to be generally going fine.

Just a perception of course. And, I'm not well read.

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

Maybe I'm not seeing things too clearly, but there seems to be quite a few good reports out this season, less the financials.

What is Goodle up to?

And, one of ours:

Tech seems to be generally going fine.

Just a perception of course. And, I'm not well read.

There are some great reports out this season from technology companies, Google being one of them. And yes less financials, homebuilders and retail earnings look good but you can't ignore 40% of the market. S&P500 earnings are in negative territory overall this quarter.

The pullback in the NASDAQ last week had as much to do with Cisco's outlook as with the fact that some of these tech companies have run up too far too fast IMHO. Google's share price graph below is representative of quite a few in the tech sector that needed to take a breath.

 

[mickqld]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just pulled this from reuters. Can see a nice DOW rebound tonight on this news.



Top US banks organise $82bn bailout fundFrom correspondents in New York
November 12, 2007 08:15am
Article from: ReutersFont size: + -
Send this article: Print Email
THE top US banks agree on the structure of a backup fund of at least $US75 billion ($81.6 billion) to stabilise credit markets, The New York Times reported overnight.

Citing a person involved in the discussions, who spoke on condition of anonymity, the Times said that Bank of America, Citigroup Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co officials reached agreement late on Friday, approving a more simplified structure than had been proposed during the course of some two months of negotiations.

?We cleared all the big hurdles,'' the newspaper quoted its source as saying. ?We agreed to a much simpler structure that we think can get done, rather than optimise it for everyone,'' the person said.

Discussions began in early autumn when the US Treasury Department convened a meeting.

Previous versions of a backup fund had been widely considered infeasible, spurring doubts about the prospect for a final plan, the Times said.

The proposed fund could begin operating by the end of the year, the newspaper reported, and the banks could start asking some 60 financial institutions to contribute to the fund in the next five to 10 days.

US Treasury Department officials declined to comment, the newspaper said.

The fund is meant to avoid a severe credit market disruption, according to its organisers, by either providing time for asset prices to recover or, more likely, at least discourage structured investment vehicles from unloading their holdings en masse, the Times said.

The fund also needs the major credit rating agencies' blessings.

 

[Kauri]

Re: XAO Analysis

THE top US banks agree on the structure of a backup fund of at least $US75 billion ($81.6 billion) to stabilise credit markets, The New York Times reported overnight.

Citing a person involved in the discussions, who spoke on condition of anonymity, the Times said that Bank of America, Citigroup Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co officials reached agreement late on Friday, approving a more simplified structure than had been proposed during the course of some two months of negotiations.

If it smells bad :flush: it doesn't matter how much you spray air-freshener about, it will still stink until it is flushed....
Hiding/diguising Wall St's losses is not going to give much joy to the millions of Americans being turfed out of thier houses by these same banks/institutions, but I have no doubt that the punters will see it as a positive and charge back in.....
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

If it smells bad :flush: it doesn't matter how much you spray air-freshener about, it will still stink until it is flushed....
Hiding/diguising Wall St's losses is not going to give much joy to the millions of Americans being turfed out of thier houses by these same banks/institutions, but I have no doubt that the punters will see it as a positive and charge back in.....
Cheers
.........Kauri

You certainly are in good form Kauri.

Very eloquently put.

 

[sassa]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just pulled this from reuters. Can see a nice DOW rebound tonight on this news.



Top US banks organise $82bn bailout fundFrom correspondents in New York
November 12, 2007 08:15am
Article from: ReutersFont size: + -
Send this article: Print Email
THE top US banks agree on the structure of a backup fund of at least $US75 billion ($81.6 billion) to stabilise credit markets, The New York Times reported overnight.

Citing a person involved in the discussions, who spoke on condition of anonymity, the Times said that Bank of America, Citigroup Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co officials reached agreement late on Friday, approving a more simplified structure than had been proposed during the course of some two months of negotiations.

?We cleared all the big hurdles,'' the newspaper quoted its source as saying. ?We agreed to a much simpler structure that we think can get done, rather than optimise it for everyone,'' the person said.

Discussions began in early autumn when the US Treasury Department convened a meeting.

Previous versions of a backup fund had been widely considered infeasible, spurring doubts about the prospect for a final plan, the Times said.

The proposed fund could begin operating by the end of the year, the newspaper reported, and the banks could start asking some 60 financial institutions to contribute to the fund in the next five to 10 days.

US Treasury Department officials declined to comment, the newspaper said.

The fund is meant to avoid a severe credit market disruption, according to its organisers, by either providing time for asset prices to recover or, more likely, at least discourage structured investment vehicles from unloading their holdings en masse, the Times said.

The fund also needs the major credit rating agencies' blessings.

The Japanese markets musn't think much of it.

Japan Stocks Fall to Lowest in More Than a Year; Exporters Drop

By Patrick Rial

Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks dropped to the lowest this year after reports of subprime losses at U.S. banks sent the dollar tumbling, clouding the profit outlook for companies including Matsu****a Electric Industrial Co.

Matsu****a, the world's largest maker of consumer electronics, dropped to the lowest in two weeks. Japan's benchmark Topix index fell to the lowest since June 2006.

In the U.S., the Standard & Poor's 500 Index slumped 1.4 percent on Nov. 9 after Wachovia Corp. announced losses on subprime-related investments, while Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. also said their earnings may suffer.

``It's not just the decline in U.S. stocks that we need to worry about; investors are reducing risk, which is causing yen strength across a lot of currencies, and that's bad for the exporters,'' said Norihiro Fujito, a senior strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co. in Tokyo

 

[sassa]

Re: XAO Analysis

Markets dropping rapidly both here and in Japan and Hong Kong.Nikkei down 3.5%,Hang Seng down 4% and ASX down over 1%.Market indicators for the S & P 500,Nasdaq and DJIA starting to fall also.Any news for sharp decline?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Markets dropping rapidly both here and in Japan and Hong Kong.Nikkei down 3.5%,Hang Seng down 4% and ASX down over 1%.Market indicators for the S & P 500,Nasdaq and DJIA starting to fall also.Any news for sharp decline?

What can’t find an article by a talking head to explain it?

Don't worry you will be able to find one tomorrow about the todays action by someone who doesn’t trade because they can’t.

What about a bit of analysis of price action from you rather than cut and paste news??

 

[juw177]

Re: XAO Analysis

What can’t find an article by a talking head to explain it?

Don't worry you will be able to find one tomorrow about the todays action by someone who doesn’t trade because they can’t.

What about a bit of analysis of price action from you rather than cut and paste news??

I think I have a good spin on this one: oil price fears, subprime fears and profit downgrade fears. What a genius I am.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm thinking it might have something to do with a new regulation that Kauri posted, and this article that I posted, on the Immemant and Severe Market Correction thread.

It sounds like the US might be bracing for another dump this week.

Could be that FASB regulation 157 forcing the hand of the money merchants.[

HSBC, the Subprime Seer:
Sanguine View Isn't Likely
By CARRICK MOLLENKAMP
November 12, 2007

When British bank HSBC Holdings PLC reports third-quarter results for its U.S. business this week, it will provide an early look at what could be in store for U.S. mortgage lenders, banks with big holdings of securities tied to subprime home loans and even the broader U.S. economy.

That picture isn't likely to be pretty.

HSBC's American consumer-lending unit, HSBC Finance Corp., is the classic canary in the coal mine when it comes to identifying new problems in the market for subprime loans, or those that were made to borrowers with weak credit.

A year ago, the bank, in a little-noticed securities filing, flagged some unexpectedly high delinquencies in its subprime-mortgage book that in February led to an increase in bad-debt costs. That proved to be the beginning of a crisis that spread around the globe, engulfing most of the world's largest banks and big mortgage lenders such as Countrywide Financial Corp.

Now, some analysts are expecting another unpleasant disclosure from HSBC's U.S. consumer-lending business, one of the biggest subprime lenders in the country. Robert Law and Raul Sinha, London-based banking analysts for Lehman Brothers, said they believe HSBC might have to boost its reserves against souring subprime loans at HSBC Finance's mortgage-services division by $2.4 billion, to a total $4.5 billion. The unit, formerly known as Household International Inc., was acquired by HSBC in 2003.

The level of reserves suggests that by the end of this year, losses to defaults over the life of the loans could wipe out about 14% of a loan portfolio totaling $41.4 billion, according to Messrs. Law and Sinha. That would confirm some of the more pessimistic forecasts of how the subprime market will fare. The Lehman analysts initially had projected losses of 8%. Lehman has an "overweight" recommendation on HSBC shares, the firm's highest ranking. The analysts said they believe HSBC's access to emerging markets is one factor that outweighs the problems in the U.S.

"HSBC has proved to be one of the most frank, or perhaps realistic, of all the players in the consumer-finance space," said UBS AG banking analyst Alastair Ryan. "If their message is indeed that things have again turned for the worse, others will follow."

HSBC's results also could have bigger implications for the U.S. economy. Some analysts expect the losses at HSBC Finance to prompt a slowdown in lending at its 1,260 U.S. branches and other lending outlets, which provide mortgages, auto loans and credit cards to retail customers. That is an area that economists have been watching closely for signs of contagion from the credit crisis. Any pullback in such lending could curtail U.S. consumer spending, which has been the country's main driver of economic growth...

 

[sassa]

Re: XAO Analysis

What can’t find an article by a talking head to explain it?

Don't worry you will be able to find one tomorrow about the todays action by someone who doesn’t trade because they can’t.

What about a bit of analysis of price action from you rather than cut and paste news??

Don't notice too much analysis on price action on your typepad.Please to see you have a disclaimer that commences,"I make mistakes."Certainly are a few spelling and grammatical ones in the only two I read.Perhaps a bit of cut and paste for the articles you draw some of your information from would be a great help.

 

[austek]

Re: XAO Analysis

Forgot one, 'Rate hikes'.

But anyone looking at a chart from across the road would see some serious support has been broken on several Indices.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re:

Don't notice too much analysis on price action on your typepad.Please to see you have a disclaimer that commences,"I make mistakes."Certainly are a few spelling and grammatical ones in the only two I read.Perhaps a bit of cut and paste for the articles you draw some of your information from would be a great help.

My point is that this thread is titled XAO Analysis but it seems to have become a place to cut and paste articles from journalist. Ones that like most "news" out there is just rehashing of generalist dribble made-up to explain price movements by people that don't actually participate in the market, don't really understand it and will probably never will.

This poor excuse for information has its place, like misinforming the lazy, but in a thread about analysing the market when it used as 'the' comment rather than some evidence or extension of an idea it just downgrades the usefulness of this thread.

There has been some great, unique and impressive market analysis on this thread of all types by independent market participants. A lot are not my cup of tea, a lot are opposite to what I think but mostly they are very informative in their own way and add to the ongoing discussion. I just fail to see what cutting and pasting populist media rubbish can add to a thread titled XAO Analysis. If I'm wrong I'm more than willing to listen to why or how such ordinary "news" is worth reprinting.

Just as a note my information doesn't come from 'articles' to cut and paste. My info comes from watching charts, the ticker and forming my own opinion from the action I see myself as well as a good hit of fading the headlines.

 

[sassa]

Re:

My point is that this thread is titled XAO Analysis but it seems to have become a place to cut and paste articles from journalist. Ones that like most "news" out there is just rehashing of generalist dribble made-up to explain price movements by people that don't actually participate in the market, don't really understand it and will probably never will.

This poor excuse for information has its place, like misinforming the lazy, but in a thread about analysing the market when it used as 'the' comment rather than some evidence or extension of an idea it just downgrades the usefulness of this thread.

Most threads on this forum have posts that are completely away from the title.Many people cut and paste.If one was to rely on only people giving their own "opinion"in this forum,many EXCELLENT articles written by JOURNALISTS,who would get information from analysts and economists far more credentialled than(insert names you would like to, including....)in this forum.
It is not only obligatory to give credit to the writer of the article you have cut and pasted,but also,good manners.If you take other people's articles and rewrite them in your own words,it is called plagiarism.
So how many posts in this thread would you excoriate because they don't give an "analysis?"
To finish off,your first two threads to me were pure sarcasm and as the immortal bard said,"It is the lowest form of wit."Go back through the thread and do the same post to people who do a lot of cutting and pasting.

 

[Gurgler]

Re: XAO Analysis

Okay, sassa ands tremblingHand - can I just make a suggestion?

If you wish to continue this discussion-for-two, perhaps you might consider using PM. Actually you both have valid points/opinions/contributions (I consider), but it's not wise to allow any thread to turn into one-on-one attacks.

BTW I recognise that I am guilty of quoting articles, TH, but that is because I don't feel qualified/experienced enough to offer the calibre of analysis I have read on this thread, however, I do want to be a part of the forum, not just an observer - and thus I try to contribute. I will try my hand at adding commentary or opinion next time - hopefully not too facile. If I do so, I hope that readers will recognise that I am learning as I go and give me positive, constructive feedback and suggestion (without rancour). Perhaps, it's just a matter of degree, sassa?

Just my attempt to find some middle path.