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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

nikki said:
I have not seen the Dow futures reverse 112 points so i think we are in for a rought night. However, the Dow futures at this time of the day always reflects what other Asian indices are doing particularly the Nikkei.

Good luck to all.
Click to expand...

the dow futures can be misleading at this time of day.
a true indication of the dow lead is about 10:30pm - 11:30 pm Melbourne time.
even if the dow opens down it still dose not 100% mean a wash out or a red day!

Last hour of Wall st can be a potent one!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

My take on the main index charts are that the DJIA has respected previous resistance , meaning 'resistance now becomes support' and that the XAO has shown respect for support at 6579.

To my mind this gives us a reasonable chance that the XAO will run to 7000 before we get our correction, not after.

Then again, I do see my self as a super optimist. Any thoughts on this from the more experienced chartists ?

austek
 
Re: XAO Analysis


Well, there seems to be a lot more buyers lineing up so far this morning, even in resource and gold.

I guess we'll see if their courage holds, shortly.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

IG xjo, 4 hour chart.


trend is broken sell off is in force I am watching this rally now to add to my short position.

will be watching to see how deep it can rally, looks good to me but need to see confirmation.

What I want to see is a rally minor breach of the 38.2% fib point then it backs off quickly leaving a tail as the breach that would confirm a normal trend moving down. Safe to think more down side to come.

a higher low will change my mind about my add or holding on to my other position. Or a close above the support followed by more positive action will change my thinking to creeping trend but that can be a set up to a fast trend up or down once it makes it's mind up.

new price bar opened 15 down so that idea of a normal trend situation is looking better.

Good Trading
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Trade_It

Great to see your analysys & charts, as us apprentice fx traders like to soak up all we can get.

Sure there's a lot of readers, on the side soaking it all up 2..

Thanks Again.
SevenFX
 
Re: XAO Analysis

SevenFX said:
Trade_It

Great to see your analysys & charts, as us apprentice fx traders like to soak up all we can get.

Sure there's a lot of readers, on the side soaking it all up 2..

Thanks Again.
SevenFX
Click to expand...

Ditto, love your simple approach TI, always makes me think theres hope for me someday.

Cheers,
 
Re: XAO Analysis


Nice chart.
From that chart, it definately looks like the trend is broken.
I saw it and thought wtf?? what market is this?
Then I saw the timeframe
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Appreciate the chart & comments TI. Will wait with interest on how it pans out. Things are'nt always as clear as they look on the surface.

I offloaded most of my port yesterday and the rest this morning.
Focus now will be on getting in at the right time and with the right stocks, after the expected correction.

austek
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Interesting to note Trade_It your 38.2% also aligns with the 50% as shown below from different points not to mention the now red resistance line it approaches.

SevenFX
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

So Trade_It it's fair to say we missed the 38.2 or 50% retracements, but whats the weaker 61.8 (your 50%) looking like as we approach.... which I'm guessing we wouldnt wan't to 'see a tail much past the 61.8 (your 50%) mark.

If so, Is this bounce known as a suckers rally, or dead cat bounce...????

EDIT: Stellar run today, perhaps fueled by the HS up 1000...???

SevenFX
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Thank you guys for all your kind words!


Today was a real thrust upwards, resistance is being found on the 50% point, I noticed that support was found on the 23% point.

i will let you in a mistake I made today. on open i watched the price rise then fall rise then fall i assumed it may keel over so i went short! i was knocked out for 25 points.

What i did wrong notice there is a minor trend line on the counter trend, i should have waited for confirmation of that being broken with selling. Another point I have found is that on 4 hour charts there is much more noise then a daily, waiting for patterns and confirmation is a key. I have often ran into a play with out really looking at it objectively from all angles (most importantly waiting for confrimation) only to be chased out.

Updated chart of the igxjo 4 hour

I have mapped out a couple possibilities, they are not based on anything scientific!

A fail at the 50% is still a good sign for the sell off to continue but as its a four hour chart it anit concrete!

For now I am waiting and watching the counter move to see how it fairs. a lower high form the current bottom is a long play i will take. My stop on my short is a profit stop now so if it's hit it's hit. I am tiring my hardest to not care about taking as much as i can just take something. Cuz after all this is shorting a bull market and a short term uptrend until the market corrects 68.1% of this current up move.

That is wear 4 hour charts will let u down it looks like a full on bear move but on a daily or weekly its just a small bleep see those time frames.

plus I don't have the skill that some members have to pick dates and points. (you know who u are!)

Good trading guys.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

fantastic charts trade_it.

learnt something interesting from the mistake you made - thanks for sharing!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

i noticed the DJIA did well overnight but has not managed to get as far as 1372 which i see as resistance to an upward trend developing. assuming by the end of this week we still care about the US

trade_it, i assume that as long as the DJIA does not trade above 1372 and stay there the kind of reversal you discussed yesterday is still in play.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

It seems to me that the main reason the Dow went down Friday was because some old people lost some money 20 years ago and wanted to have a little bit of a crash for old times sake Alzheimers should kick in and those oldies will forget about it all until next year.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

JimBob said:
It seems to me that the main reason the Dow went down Friday was because some old people lost some money 20 years ago
Click to expand...

You must be a wipper snapper Jim Bob, people who are just 40 got caught in the 87 crash, so wouldn't exactly call them old.

The anniversary of that may have panicked some into selling, but some would say that the smart money were taking advantage of this and spooked everybody.

It's still unlikely that we will surge to all time highs straight off though, but who knows, this is a very powerful bull market we are in.
 
Re: XAO Analysis


Don't know how old you are JimBob but apparently not a old as some of us "oldies."
A bit of advice from an "oldie"-you are no certainty to reach that age.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

sassa said:
What's causing the sharp selloff in the XJO and Nikkei?
Click to expand...

Quite. I'm rather uncertain of that myself - portfolio started off all green this morning; now it's all neutral or red

I hope we see another green day tomorrow in the US markets, or we're really going to suffer :
 
Re: XAO Analysis

sassa said:
What's causing the sharp selloff in the XJO and Nikkei?
Click to expand...

Sassa I think the weakness on our markets was due to the CPI data that was released today.

maybe another pre election rate rise coming, why i think it was due to this the aud shot up and the euro did nothing against the usd they normally move in tan dame but a rate rise here does nothing for the euro.
 
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