XAO Technical Analysis

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:

I'm very interested in media/social dynamics and whether it's the public that moves the media, or media moving the people, and I think we could be somewhere in a whirpool situation, where one triggers the other, triggers the other, and momentum kicks in creating a vortex which sucks everything around and down with it. You can't discount the media's influence in creating a crash. If there was NO communication, and interpretation, then we'd be sitting around twiddling our thumbs, wondering what to do.

In the mean time, we'll continue to overshoot, and undershoot, and it's important to make the most of those opportunites, IMO.

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Kennas,

The people who are what we would call the smart ones don't listen to the media. The media reports for whatever is manufactured for whatever eventuates. The result means story A gets printed and not story B, or vice versa. It is for the pops and grans and the fools who follow it. Unfortunately the list of fools grows with every bull market so there must be some negative effect. But with institutions etc always buying and selling it isn't worth following at least to the extent of trading by it.

Charts don't lie.

Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:

I'm sick of hearing about this. Its a load of ****

I personally have little faith in Peter Costello and his bean counters timing this thing at anything other than the top of the market.

Yes I know its ran buy smart people.

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Do you just mean it's old news TH? Or that it has NO effect on the liquidity in the markets? Along with all that other super money that's been injected?

Also, you think the creation of the Future Fund has been designed to try and ride the bull market with people's tax money? And they are timing it badly?

I thought the Fund was put together to pay for poor Baby Boomers in retirement and had no link to what stage the market was in. They created it to time the Boomers, not the markets. Now they've got all this cash, they have to invest, it's part of the mandate isn't it?

Isn't the fund being run by investment professionals? Some guy who used to run a big bank I think, along with a few helpers who may have suitable qualifications and experience.

I don't mind hearing about the FF injecting money into the market....no biggie.

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:

I don’t think this is quite true. The example of this is the EWP. It is an excellent representation of mass mood as expressed in liquid market patterns on many occasions, especially when coupled with sentiment.

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It is a judgement made from looking through a line of abstract concepts applied to a complex group of data never wholly being able to be known at any one time.

wavepicker said:

Order has nothing to do with putting the cart before the horse Chops. What is order anyway? Yes it is an assumption, a subjective one at that. However that assumption is not made easily, it’s only made after seeing things happening over and over many times. Order can manifest itself in many ways in the market, from repeating patterns, repeating price points, and repeating time points and as is most seen CYCLES. Have given numerous examples in this forum. There is no guarantee the same order will continue to unfold into the future as the cycle can miss a beat only to re appear at later stage. But it nevertheless is there.

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How can you assume something to be true, refute the other side, and at the same time deny the validity of the assumed truth into the future? That's certainly not analytic or scientific. And all I have to say to this is, "All swans are white!"

wavepicker said:

There is no doubt that there have been many examples given by Mag, myself and others on this forum (quite successful forecasts in fact), that there exists some type of order in the market

Now if you don’t buy into this argument I really couldn’t give a fat rats a.se!! You are simply part of the majority that creates the trends in the markets place that people that can relate to what I am saying will profit from. I mean if you didn’t have a bunch of people like yourself that were willing to buy OXR at over $4 for example, then we would have no one to make $$ from
.

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I have NO DOUBT that EW works. But extrapolating this to anything outside of price action is bound to face problems.

And FWIW I didn't and would never have taken a trade on OXR above $4 (I mean, I wouldn't even put a $50 bet on it ffs!); use basic EW analysis to trade from and benefit greatly from your posts.

Like I said, this is just a bunch of wank. I just happen to think that EW is very good in the numbers games, and should be taken as nothing more.

Cheers,
Chops.

Oh and P.S. I think it would be very hard to apply time analysis to markets when modern economic theories were developed by inductivists who were not as interested in time as were their contemporary philosophical antagonists.

Re: XAO Analysis

vert said:

dont mind having a go at some drawings myself Kauri, have been playing with this and the DJI since we seem to follow them.

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Excellent chart vert,

is this how you expect this current uptrend to pan out?

Wish we had more analysis like this on this thread

Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:

It is a judgement made from looking through a line of abstract concepts applied to a complex group of data never wholly being able to be known at any one time.

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All analysis involves judgement. Every day at work I assess brake squeal/clutch shudder on vehicles based judgement. When I land the a plane it's based on judgement. But I am judging from the basis of a trained observer. The same applies when analysing the market. It's called experience, and anybody can attain it but takes hard work which very few are willing to do. Very often there are patterns there just looking at you in the face, you just gotta do some work to find them.

chops_a_must said:

I have NO DOUBT that EW works. But extrapolating this to anything outside of price action is bound to face problems.

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Yes it does work all the time, however trying to find it in it's simplest form all the time is not always possible. The number 1.618 and other sequences crop up everywhere ie in nature, etc , maybe even in you chops

Re: XAO Analysis

Vert

Where can I get the formula for the "OH__SHIIT" Indicator.
Do you have a "EUREKA" one as well!

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker, yes this is how i would like it to pan out with some refinements on the way of course. Dont know all the rules to wave analysis, really should get some education on it because I like what i have seen of it by others which is where I've got my basics from.
My target for wave 1 is 6069 61.8 of the whole down move, I thought that yesterday was the day but with the dow up 145 points we might go a bit higher today. Still we must have a little pullback any day as we cant keep going straight up. If and when w1 is confirmed then i predict w2 to be 61.8 of w1 5700.
If this follows my probability this will be similar to the correction in 2006


tech/a, no formula mate just if it goes there OH SH>T
My eureka one is if it breaks 6450

First chart asx200 2006, 2nd 3rd are DOW.

Re: XAO Analysis

17 Aug

kennas said:

I can not help but think there are some long term bargains looming for those with cash. I traded banks yesterday, but I'm almost tempted to buy and hold today. Looks like capitulation across the board to me. Hmmmmm

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Was 17 Aug capitulation?

I tend to think this is just a recovery in a longer term down trend, or sideways movement, but if the XAO cracks 6200 then it's technically going back up.

Re: XAO Analysis

It'd be interesting to see if they close the All Ords above the 61.8% of 6094 retracement from the lows at 5490.

Re: XAO Analysis

How do you think the Feds are going to go about the markets... Do you think an interest rate cut is likely?

Re: XAO Analysis

So...all ords up 2.5% to 6149.7, with a wee burst of energy at the close.

Where to now?

Re: XAO Analysis

insider said:

How do you think the Feds are going to go about the markets... Do you think an interest rate cut is likely?

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The markets seem to be punting on that likelihood.

But I don't know, they have a dollar to defend as well. But nothing is too ridiculously accommodative for the Fed/CB cabal.

Re: XAO Analysis

insider said:

How do you think the Feds are going to go about the markets... Do you think an interest rate cut is likely?

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well, if no cut... market will go down again.
then xao will be hmm... well back to 5500?
think today's action is too way far ahead.
market is really hoping Fed will cut rate.
but who knows what might happen.
quite happy though. at last 4 days Green in the rows.
will it be a week straight in Green, i wonder?

Re: XAO Analysis

this recovery has been too quick for my liking... only made one trade and made 5k

doesn't make up for my overall portfolio loss

but its been an interesting thread... keep it up.

Re: XAO Analysis

moses said:

Where to now?

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Well, looking at the smaller time frame it looks like we may well have a consolidation at least, probably a pullback to the red lines below (normal retracement area) before the start of the next wave up which, if we have our bull hat on will probably take us to new highs.

I feel bearish (emotions), but the chart does look fairly bullish.

Definitely a 3 wave movement down, cannot be anything other unless it is 3 waves down to a wave A, in which case we are going very, very much lower :eek

the weekly oscilator is just turning bullish, the smaller time frame (below), will be in overbought territory tomorrow.

Re: XAO Analysis

Rafa said:

this recovery has been too quick for my liking...

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Maybe, but in an attempt to be as objective as possible with the analysis, the patterns that you see on a weekly and monthly chart right now can only indicate one thing...a notable lack of selling pressure below 6,000. And if Porpor's worse case scenario Elliott Wave count is correct then this is still a wave B, and we're probably still going higher from here before we go lower than we were. Retesting of the all-time-highs can't be out of the question. But even it we get there or go higher again, retesting of the recent lows after that also can't be out of the question. Hows that for a hedged bet? Can you tell I'm just like everyone else in this thread...no idea what will happen next.

ASX.G

Re: XAO Analysis

Maybe we'd better ask Ben B. what he plans to do with rates.

Re: XAO Analysis

moses said:

Maybe we'd better ask Ben B. what he plans to do with rates.

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anyone knows his number or email address?

Re: XAO Analysis

The video shows the daily count and how this counts fits...





BOTTOM LINE
23/8:
EW Trend: Corrective (?)
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: n/a


LAYMANS ANALYSIS
23/8:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (3 mins 0 secs)
In last week's update of the All Ordinaries Index (XAO) I mentioned the very positive close and what was then required to label the decline as a corrective movement rather than a new downtrend. That has now been achieved and we're seeing strong follow through evidence to back it up. Whilst price action since last weeks dramatic lows does not completely eradicate an ongoing larger corrective argument, it certainly puts a much more positive spin on the condition of the market. I can't quite get fully bullish again until we see new highs, but the price patterns have given us a round of reasons to think that its possible. If we stall and start to fail before we hit new highs then there could be some further uncomfortable road bumps to endure but we can dissect the outlook using some price levels as guidelines. The most important level is 5788. Should the ongoing bullish argument hold water then we must stay above that at this stage. We could well travel all the way back to the highs if we hold that level. Even a decline over the coming week of a few hundred points would still keep the immediate bullish argument alive, in fact I would expect that we'll see some near term downside before another go higher. With the key level in place we'll continue expecting higher prices.


TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
23/8:
Any way you wish to look at the daily chart (refer video) we have a 3-wave decline off the highs and the impulse waves of that decline show reasonable equality. We must concede that the move has not been an impulse and that it's now a completed correction or it's the first part of a much larger corrective move. The strength off the lows has been very strong as well. Today's chart is the 30-minute window allowing us to peek inside the activity off the lows. Its a clear impulse which is now tackling so transient resistance. We may have a reason to expect a wave-iii high anywhere here and a wave-iv decline to follow. So long as we hold above the wave-i highs we should be focused on the continuing bullish argument, at least for the short term. Each step of the way we can build the levels to validate or invalidate the argument. On a slightly longer term time frame we have not necessarily invalidated an ongoing complex correction whereby the 3-wave decline of the highs is in fact a larger degree wave-(A). That is still a plausible scenario. But again, this argument is starting to have some holes poked into it. An impulse can only be a wave-1 or -A so if we're talking bearish then this doesn't quite fit the wave-A scenario, unless we're seeing some elongated corrective move higher. Possible. But it's starting to look like a piece of swiss cheese.



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Re: XAO Analysis

thanks nick for your analysis, much appreciated
on 30 min chart could it be w5 of a larger w1? with w3 being 6050 and w4 5990
if so where would larger w2 be destined 50%?